Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 110244
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
944 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build south of the region tonight and Monday.
Two dry cold fronts will pass through this week, the first one
Tuesday, the second one Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Sunday...Clear skies and light to calm winds
continue across the region as strong high pressure continues to
build east from the western Gulf Coast. Excellent radiational
cooling conditions expected overnight and have lowered
temperatures in the normally colder locations another degree or
two overnight. Lowest readings in the mid/upper 20s inland with
low/mid 30s Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sunday...High pressure will weaken to the south as
diving low moves through the Mid-West, and flow becomes zonal
across the area. Low level thickness values and sunny skies
support highs in the low/mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 am Sun...Temps moderate a bit Mon into Tue as
thicknesses increase a bit ahead of next short wave/cold front.
Continue mostly sunny Mon then will see a few more clouds Tue
ahead of shortwave but moisture is very limited so not expecting
precip. Highs mostly low to mid 50s Mon and Tue. Lows Mon night
mid 30s inland to 40s cst.

Another shot of arctic air will surge in Tue night and Wed as
upper trof crosses the region. Models now mainly dry with
limited moisture so no precip expected. Very cold Wed with lows
in the mid 20s inland to low 30s coast and highs mainly 35-40.

Temps moderate a bit late in the week as upper flow becomes a
bit more zonal. Dry weather will continue with highs Thu mid
40s to low 50s and mostly low/mid 50s for Fri and Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Tuesday/...
As of 645 PM Sunday...Under the influence of strong high
pressure along the western Gulf Coast, VFR conditions should
prevail through the period with light winds and clear skies. The
light winds combined with decent temp/dewpt spread should keep
fog from developing tonight.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 200 am Sun...VFR/dry weather expected thru the period
with dry airmass leading to partly cloudy to mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 945 PM Sunday...Generally seeing WSW/W winds at around 10
to occasional 15 knots with some higher gusts over the central
waters at late evening. Seas are running 2-4 feet. Latest high-
resolution guidance shows some gusty winds overnight and will
include gusts to 20 knots on the Pamlico Sound and Coastal
waters through the overnight hours. Winds diminish Monday to
5-10 kt with seas continuing at 2-4 ft.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 200 am Sun...West winds increase to 15 to 25 kts with
higher gusts Tuesday as next upper trof/cold front approaches
from the W. As cold front crosses late Tuesday expect gusty NW
winds 20 to 30 kts to develop Tuesday night and continue into
Wednesday. Some gusts to gale force will be possible Tuesday
night in the central waters from Oregon Inlet to Ocracoke.

Seas build to 4-8 ft Tuesday highest outer central waters. Seas
of 4-8 feet cont Tue night into Wed assoc with the gusty NW
winds behind the cold front. Seas will build to small craft
advisory levels Thursday south of Oregon Inlet ahead of next
front approaching from the west. Seas of 2-4 ft will build to
4-8 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/CQD/HSA
MARINE...CTC/CQD/HSA



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