Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 292314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
714 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...WEAK FRONT HAS CROSSED ALL BUT EXTREME SW TIER
AND WILL LIKELY STALL OVER FAR SRN AREAS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ONLY SEEN
ISOLD SHRA SO FAR AND WITH LOSS OF HEATING NOT EXPECTING MUCH THRU
REST OF EVENING. DROPPED POPS NRN TIER AND LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHC
FURTHER S. LATE TONIGHT MDLS CONT TO FOCUS QPF NEAR OBX SO KEPT LOW
CHC POP THESE AREAS AFTER 06Z. NO CHANGES TO LOWS WITH UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S MOST SPOTS. PATCHY FOG POSS LATE WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
AND MOIST LOW LVLS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON CVRG SO WILL KEEP OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SHOULD INHIBIT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POP BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 90 INLAND TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BRING WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH BUILDS INLAND. SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE A TYPICAL
SUMMER...HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MON THROUGH WED
WILL BE A BETTER DAY WITH CONVECTION AS A BROAD TROF WILL MOVE
FROM NORTH AND FLATTEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALLOWING WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 30/40 POPS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY MID TO LATE WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE AREA...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY...AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE TIMING.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT IT. EXPECT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SAT/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...TOUGH FCST WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR WORSE
LATER TONIGHT IN FOG/ST. SETUP LOOKS DECENT FOR FOG AND ST TO
DEVELOP WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW JUST N OF STALLED BNDRY AND MOIST
LOW LVLS. BOTH NAM AND GFS BASED GUIDANCE SHOW IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING
HOWEVER SREF AND HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH NOT AS BULLISH. GIVEN
FAVORABLE SETUP DO PLAN ON IFR IN THE 09 TO 12Z TIME FRAME. FOG/ST
THAT DOES FORM WILL GRAD LIFT SST MORN WITH VFR FROM MID TO LATE
MORN ON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...INCREASING THE
PRECIP CHANCES ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
WITH HVY RAINFALL. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY AT SITES WHERE PRECIP HAS FALLEN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM FRIDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH FRONT STALLED OVER FAR
SRN TIER TONIGHT AND SLOWLY LIFTING N SAT.

PREV DISC...THE WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
TONIGHT THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH SATURDAY. 10 TO 15 KT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KT LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

2 TO 4 FT SEAS LATE TODAY WILL BECOME 2 TO 3 FT LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL S/SW 5 TO 15 KTS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/JME/BM












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