Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 311946
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
346 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Hermine will make landfall in northern Florida by
Friday morning, and lift northeastward and impact the area Friday
into Saturday. High pressure will build into the region Sunday
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 330 PM Wed...A quiet afternoon across E NC as weak ridging
is in control. Mid and upper level moisture is streaming northward
and leading to mostly cloudy skies across the FA. Sfc warm front
is slowly moving northward across Onslow Bay and towards the
Crystal Coast. Convective showers and ocnl thunder along and south
of the bndry with some elevated stratiform rain to the north. Some
of this activity will get to the Crystal Coast by this evening.
Wind field dominated by local sound and sea breeze boundaries as
synoptic flow is quite weak.

For tonight, aforementioned warm front/coastal trough will move
northeast and remain off the coast. Some rain showers will affect
mainly coastal areas with some embedded thunder possible.
Otherwise mainly calm/light winds and moist low levels leads to
another night of fog/br for interior areas and have added patchy
fg to grids. Warm and muggy once again with lows 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Quiet conditions for most of Thursday as area
will be well ahead of a sfc cool front dropping southward from the
Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region. Front is a bit slower than
earlier models have indicated so best chance for showers/storms
will hold off until late in the afternoon. Have highest pops
(40-50) across nrn/nwrn zones to 20 percent coastal areas. Warm
and humid under partly cloudy skies with highs 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday,

Thursday through Friday, weak low pressure between exiting
tropical system to the northeast and approaching stronger tropical
cyclone to the south, will zip up the coast Thursday providing
little precipitation but an increase in cloudiness. Rain chances
increase to likely Thursday night ahead of strong cold front which
should move to the coast early Friday morning. PoPs increase to
categorical coast to likely inland as deep moisture enters the
area ahead of Tropical Depression #9, which is likely to be a
tropical storm moving off our southern coast Friday into Friday
night. QPF forecast showing copious amounts of rainfall with this
system as WPC progs showing 3-7 inches across our CWA with locally
higher amounts possible, mainly near the coast. Winds will start
to ramp up ahead of the system by late afternoon Friday.

Friday night through Saturday, the worst of the tropical storm
will affect our southeast and eastern zones from about 03Z to 15Z
or so Saturday before accelerating away from the region as it
transitions to an extratropical cyclone. Local wind forecast
showing winds in the 50-60 mph possible near the Crystal Coast and
Outer Banks with this system, with a sharp drop off in both winds
and QPF as one goes further inland. Of course, any small deviation
in track could make a large difference in the impacts with this
system.

Saturday night through Tuesday, while high pressure builds at the
surface across the region bringing somewhat cooler and drier air
into early next week, a lingering mid-level low may produce a few
widely scattered showers, especially coastal sections, through the
weekend. Temperatures will be fairly comfortable with highs
generally low/mid 80s, and lows mid 60s to around 70 through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Mid and high clouds will dominate until late
tonight. Moist low levels and calm/light winds lead to a chance of
MVFR/IFR fg/br overnight and into early Thu morning. Any fog/br
and low stratus will burn off by Thu morning with partly cloudy
skies expected with just a slight chance of rain until around 20Z
when a front approaches with better shower/storm chances late in
the afternoon.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday, Increased showers/thunderstorms will
accompany a cold front through the region Thursday night into
early Friday morning and periods of sub-VFR conditions will be
likely. Rain becomes widespread with strong winds associated with
Tropical system Friday and especially Friday night into early
Saturday with very poor flying conditions expected. As storm moves
away and drier air returns, VFR conditions likely for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Thu...Light N to NE winds this afternoon will become
southerly tonight though remain in the 5-10 kt range. Seas will be
2 to 4 feet. Winds back to the NE again on Thursday as a weak low
moves well off the coast of NC. Winds remain light on Thu in the
5-10 kt range with seas continuing 2 to 4 feet.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 345 AM Wednesday, Stronger system will affect the coastal
waters in the Friday through early Saturday timeframe. Relatively
quiet conditions expected Thursday and Thursday night as generally
NW/N winds become W at 5-15 knots with seas running 3-5 feet
through the period. Latest NHC track brings the Tropical system,
which is likely to be a Tropical Storm, south and east of the NC
coast Friday night into early Saturday, with the strongest impacts
from roughly 03z through 15z Saturday. Winds gusts close to 60
knots and seas as high as 15 feet, per latest hurricane version of
local NWPS/SWAN model. NE winds subside to 10-20 knots by Sunday,
but seas are likely to remain elevated until at least late Monday.
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with this tropical
system and small deviations in the track could lead to a big
change in the impacts to the marine area, so marine interests
should continue to closely monitor this situation.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...SK/TL
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL



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