Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 292239
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area tonight
then lift back north by the end of the day Saturday. A weak cool
front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall
near the area by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Weak front has crossed northern tier and
expected to stall and dissipate over southern tier early Sat.
Radar shows a few showers and storms over NE sections near
boundary. Will keep higher pops this region a while longer.
Overnight not expecting much...however with the boundary over the
region and some residual instab will keep isold pop in. Will have
another warm and muggy night with lows in the 75 to 80 degree
range across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday, the surface trof which has been over the mid
state area most of the week will shift closer to the coast
Saturday and the weak boundary that moved into the northern CWA
will lift back to the north. The chance of a shower or
thunderstorm will increase a bit on Saturday into the 30 to 40
percent range. Highs in the low to mid 90s and dewpoints ranging
from the lower to upper 70s across the region will make it feel
hot and humid again, but like today, heat indexes will only flirt
with the 105 degree mark or higher. The chance of increased clouds
and showers and thunderstorms would also serve ti limit the chance
of getting heat indexes over 105. Given that, will not issue a
heat advisory for Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 PM Friday...Pattern will become increasingly unsettled
this weekend into mid week as the mid/upper ridge breaks down and
transitions to a broad trough. Conditions will improve late week
as high pressure builds in.

Saturday Night into Sunday...Mid/Upper level ridge continues to
break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee Valley continues
to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary slowly sinks down from
the NW, but remains to the north. This will provide better chances
for showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially during the
afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be about a degree or
two lower then Saturday. Expect highs in the low 90s inland to
mid/upper 80s along the OBX.

Monday through Friday...The broad trough axis will be over NC on
Monday, while several shortwaves moving through the flow through mid
week. At the sfc, the slow moving cold front will sink down into the
forecast area late Monday into Tuesday, then linger across the
southern coastal area Wednesday into Thursday. This will lead to
an increase of PoPs from scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms, especially for Monday and Tuesday. By Thursday,
frontal boundary will remain stalled to the south of the area and
models depict it will dissipate late Thursday/Friday as high
pressure builds into the area from the New England area. 850 mb
temperatures will decrease through the period and combined with
increased cloud cover...high temperatures will drop into the upper
80s/low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast Monday. Tuesday
through Thursday, high temps will be a few degrees lower with
highs in the upper 80s inland to low/mid 80s along the coast. High
temps are expected to slightly increase Friday; with a high in the
low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short term /Through Saturday/...
As of 630 PM Friday...Most of the time expect VFR however cant
rule out some patchy fog late tonight and brief sub VFR Sat aftn
with convection. With weak bndry sagging into the region expect
much lighter winds over the region tonight. With limited mixing
cant rule some patchy fog late especially northern tier behind
weak front and will add some MVFR vsbys to KPGV. Over more
southern sites will keep fog out for now given uncertainty on how
far S boundary will make it. Any fog that does develop tonight
will quickly burn off Sat morn. Better coverage of SHRA/TSRA
expected Sat aftn with short waves crossing and will add VCTS to
all sites starting at 18z.

Long Term /Saturday Night through Wednesday/
As of 3 PM Friday...Scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms through mid week and will produce sub-VFR
conditions. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions under a SW flow 5-10
knots then shifting to NE after the frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sat/...
As of 615 PM Friday...Pushed weak front slightly further S
tonight per 18z models otherwise no signif changes.

Prev Disc...A weak boundary moved into the Northern waters that
will linger through the night before lifting back to the north.
This will bring a period of light north easterly flow across the
northern waters tonight becoming southerly again during the day on
Saturday. Winds will remain southwest around 10 KT across the
southern portion of the waters and the southwest flow will
increase to around 10 to 15 KT on Saturday. Seas will generally be
between 2 to 4 feet.

Long Term /Sat Night through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Friday...SW flow will continue into late Monday as the
frontal boundary moves in from the north and reaches the southern
waters by Wednesday. This will result in an increase of PoPs from
scattered to widespread rain/thunderstorms across the marine
zones. Expect, SW flow 10-20 knots and seas 2-5 ft with the
highest over the central/southern waters through Monday, then
winds will shift NE after the frontal passage. Seas will become 2
to 4 ft. Winds and seas however are forecast to remain below Small
Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/RSB/BM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.