Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250504
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
104 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT STALLING
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS
WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT A COUPLE OF DEGREES...EXCEPT HAVE RAISED SEVERAL DEGREES
OUTER BANKS. TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF LATER TONIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING. THE 3 KM HRRR TRIES TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY AROUND
11Z BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...DAMPENING SHRT WV TROF AND ASSCTD SFC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN DURING THE DAY. SPC UPGRADED SVR OUTLOOK TO
SLIGHT RISK OVER AREA AND CONCUR ON MARGINAL SVR THREAT DURING AFTN
WITH FCST SOUNDING CAPES TO AROUND 1200 AND SHEAR AROUND 40 KT.
CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST POPS WITH 20% OVER SW HALF OF AREA DURING
MORNING WITH INITIAL WAA...THEN 30-50 POPS FOR TSTMS DURING
AFTN...HIGHEST OVER WRN SECTIONS. TEMPS WILL BE ABLE TO RISE TO
AROUND 80 INLAND SECTIONS EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...AND AROUND 70
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRI EVENING
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPCLY NE TIER CLOSER TO SHORT
WAVE AND BETTER FORCING. COULD STILL BE SMALL CHC OF STRONG TO SVR
STORM EARLY BUT WITH INSTAB WANING THREAT SHLD END QUICKLY AFTER
SUNSET. ALL PRECIP SHLD EXIT BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FRONT/SHORT WAVE
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LOWS MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND
60 BEACHES. WEAK HIGH WILL PASS OFFSHORE TO THE S SAT WITH PLENTY OF
SUN AND MILD TEMPS AROUND 80 INLAND TO UPR 60S/LOWER 70S BEACHES.
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG S THRU THE REGION SAT NIGHT AND
STALL TO THE S SUNDAY. THICKNESSES DROP A BIT BEHIND THIS FRONT
ESPCLY NE TIER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM LOWER 60S NE CST TO MID/UPR
70S SW. RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NEAR REGION SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER MON. WILL START TO SEE MOISTURE INCREASE LATER
MON ESPCLY INLAND AND CONT SMALL POP MAINLY W OF HIGHWAY 17 IN THE
AFTN. ISENT LIFT WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS FRONTAL ZONE STALLED TO
THE S BECOMES MORE DEFINED. ALTHOUGH FAIRLY FAR OUT IN TIME BOTH
GFS/ECMWF FOCUS PRECIP ACROSS NRN TIER MON NIGHT AND FOLLOWED THIS
WITH CHC POPS N AND W TO SLIGHT CHC SE.

TUE THROUGH THU LOOKS UNSETTLED AS STACKED UPR LOW STALLS NEAR SRN
GREAT LAKES WITH FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW TO NEAR OR
JUST N OF THE REGION. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA
AND POSS TSRA THRU THE PERIOD AND HAVE POPS MAINLY IN THE CHC TO
GOOD CHC RANGE THIS FAR OUT. SOME INDICATION THAT WAVE WILL DEVELOP
ON FRONT AND PUSH BULK OF MOISTURE OFF THE CST LATER THU BUT TOO
EARLY TO REALLY JUMP ON THAT. WILL BE MAINLY IN WARM SECTOR TUE INTO
THU HOWEVER CLDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S INLAND TO UPR 60S/NEAR 70 BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS TREND SHOWING SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LATE AT KEWN/KOAJ AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE 3
KM HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS TRYING TO SNEAK INTO THE REGION
BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. MAY MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUD LAYERS
BEFORE MIDDAY THURSDAY BUT SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRING PERIODS OF POSSIBLE SUB-VFR. WILL
JUST HAVE VCSH FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER TIMING OF PRECIP AND LOWER
CIGS CAN BE RESOLVED. S/SW WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KT LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...SCT MVFR POSS EARLY FRI EVENING WITH SHRA/TSRA
THEN VFR FROM M ID EVENING ON AS MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRES
WILL DOMINATE SAT THOUGH MON WITH MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WARM FRONT
WL LIFT N THRU THE REGION LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH INCREASING
CHC OF SHRA AND POSS TSRA WITH SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...NO BIG CHANGES MADE TO MARINE FORECAST. WINDS
CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3
FEET ON ALL WATERS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN PRODUCE
INCREASING S-SW WINDS ON FRIDAY. MODEL BLEND INDICATES WINDS 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT LIKELY FOR SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY LATE
AFTN...AND POSTED SCA THERE AT 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO FRI NIGHT.

BLEND OF NWPS AND SWAN USED FOR SEAS. HEIGHTS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT
TONIGHT...THEN BUILD AGAIN FRIDAY WITH 4-6 FT LIKELY OUTER PORTIONS
OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 230 PM THU...BRIEF SCA EXPECTED FIRST PART OF FRI NIGHT CNTRL
AND SRN TIER WITH GUSTY SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN
THE EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 6 FT OUTER WTRS S OF
OREGON INLET. WINDS WL GRAD SHIFT TO NW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT LATER FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY SAT MORN.
WEAK HIGH WILL CROSS TO THE S SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW AOB 15 KTS
AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SSE THRU THE REGION LATER SAT NIGHT. WSW WINDS COULD REACH 15 TO
20 KTS AHEAD THE FRONT SAT NIGHT WITH NNE WINDS CLOSE TO 15 TO 20
KTS CNTRL AND NRN TIER BEHIND FRONT EARLY SUNDAY. SEAS MAINLY 2 TO
4 FT SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POSS SOME 5 FOOTER OUTER CNTRL  AND NRN
WTRS. HIGH PRES WILL LINGER NEAR THE REGION SUN NIGHT THRU MON WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 2 TO 3 FT. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N
THRU THE AREA TUE WITH S WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING 3 TO 5 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/BTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/BTC






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