Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
112 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A cold front will stall over the area today before moving offshore on
Sunday. High pressure builds back in by Tuesday. Another cold front
will approach the area in the middle of next week.


As of 1 pm Saturday...Convection now developing along the
immediate coast and will continue into the afternoon. No changes
needed to current zones.

Prev disc...After a mostly sunny start this morning, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon inland
and spread toward the coast through the evening as a cold front
moves to just west of our CWA before stalling today then
starting to move toward the coast tonight. Stability parameters
are less impressive than Friday with forecast surface-based CAPE
values around 2500 J/kg with somewhat lower precipitable water
values. Will forecast high chance PoPs, mainly east of Highway
17 where these numbers will be maximized with chance PoPs over
the Coastal Plains. High temperatures will also be a degree or
two cooler than yesterday with highs in the lower 90s, except
upper 80s immediate coast. Heat Indices are mostly just below
105 degrees, although a few spots may reach this value for an
hour or two. After coordination with surrounding offices, have
opted to not put up another Heat Advisory for today.


As of 410 AM Saturday...The cold front should start to move
toward the coast tonight and will carry 30-50 pct PoPs over the
eastern portions of the CWA through midnight then along the
immediate coast after midnight before all precipitation is over
toward morning on Sunday. While still warm, low temperatures
will not be quite so oppressive tonight with low to mid 70s
behind the front inland, with the upper 70s confined to the
Outer Banks.


Sunday/Early next week...

No big changes to this part of the forecast with a front washing out
across our area.  The end result will be a more comfortable air
mass, still hot but mainly dry for the majority of the area.
Slightly higher moisture will be found near and south of the front
itself, and that is where we will confine precip chances. Highs
through the period will be near 90 inland to mid 80s at the beaches.

Wednesday and beyond...Best shot for precipitation over the extended
period will come late Wednesday into Thursday as a new, stronger
front moves into the area.  Continued high chance pops (50%) for
this period.  Big story with this front will be the relief from the
heat with highs in the lower 80s both Thursday and Friday!


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1 pm Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail outside of
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, which may produce
brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Most all of the available
guidance shows some patchy dense fog late tonight and will
include a few hours of MVFR fog early Sunday morning. Sunday is
shaping up to be a mostly dry day. Light surface winds through
the period, from the south tonight and east to southeast Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...VFR through Tuesday. Sub VFR conditions
possible late Wednesday in scattered showers and storms.


Short Term /Today and Tonight/...
As of 1 pm Saturday...No changes to current forecast. Winds will
be SW at 10-15 knots this afternoon and evening, and 10 knots
or less overnight. Seas are generally 3-5 feet, although Diamond
Buoy has briefly been around 5.5 or 5.6 feet, but should
gradually drop off to 2-4 tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 330 AM Saturday...Quiet boating conditions continue through
Tuesday.  During this period winds will be 10 kts or less with wave
heights 2 to 3 feet.  With a boundary near the coastal waters wind
directions will vary quite a bit during this time depending on
location on the water (north to south).  By Wednesday marine
conditions become less favorable as a cold front approaches.  Ahead
of the front southwest winds increase 10 to 20, with seas building
to 3 to 5 feet as a gradient tightens ahead of the front.





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