Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011140
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
640 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST THURSDAY AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST ACROSS
THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AS HIGH CLOUDS APPROACH AND THICKEN FROM THE WEST.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH...EXTENDING FROM NEW YORK TO
THE MISSOURI VALLEY. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATER THIS
EVENING. WITH LIGHT W/SW WINDS TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING THE LOW/MID
50S IN MOST LOCATIONS DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE STARTS TO ARRIVE THE REGION
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND VERY STRONG MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AND RAMP POPS UP TO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE AT THAT POINT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE QUARTER
TO ONE HALF INCH SEEM LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 48 TO 52 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THE MONDAY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
MIDWESTERN STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH PA/MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING. SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z
RUNS. GOOD FRONTOGENESIS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT MONDAY MORNING WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING OFF THE COAST MID
AFTERNOON. SOME INSTABILITY REMAINS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF THUNDER THERE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE ONE
QUART TO ONE HALF INCH AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING. RAIN WILL
END BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM EXITS OFF THE
COAST. 03Z SREF PLUMES HAVE PRECIP ENDING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
COUNTIES AROUND 18-21Z MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OFF THE OBX COAST BY 00Z
TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MAX TEMPS LIKELY EARLY MORNING
THEN SLOW COOLING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON IN POST-FRONTAL
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS EASTERN NC LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE...THOUGH
00Z GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DRY
COLUMN...EXPECT LITTLE IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE SAVE FOR INCREASED
HIGH CLOUDS FOR A PERIOD. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S INLAND TO
LOW 30S ALONG THE OUTER BANKS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO AROUND
1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH ON
TUESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING A WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TREND TO
DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY BUILD BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...MID 50S NORTH TO UPPER
50S SOUTH.

GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON A LATE WEEK SYSTEM THOUGH SOME BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TX/NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OFF THE COAST
NEAR THE GULF STREAM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN POPS INCREASE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE INLAND/CHANCE ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE OPERATIONAL GEM SUGGESTS LOW
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA THOUGH LACKS SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
REGION. THE GFS KEEPS MOST MOISTURE OFF THE COAST WITH THE FRONT
WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SC/NC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THESE GUIDANCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST ENOUGH ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE...ESP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF EASTERN NC TO SUPPORT P-TYPE ISSUES IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS DROP OFF
QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 0.40 INCHES WITH A VERY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER...BELOW 700 MB. GIVEN ITS LATE DAY 5/6 AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FROZEN P-TYPE OCCURRENCE...HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH FRIDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY SEEING THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 20S INLAND TO LOW 30S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CONFIDENCE INCREASING TO MVFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS DROP TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY 00Z THEN AS THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AFTER ABOUT 06Z...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
DROP TO MVFR WITH LIGHT RAIN AND VSBYS AROUND 5 MILES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE...THEN
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND MAY SEE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LARGE
MODEL SPREAD WITH THE THURSDAY SYSTEM.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM SUNDAY...RECONFIGURED SOME OF THE HEADLINES TO BETTER
MATCH CURRENT THINKING. NOW HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE
SOUNDS FOR MONDAY. GALE WARNING NOW UP FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS...BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND LATER IN
THE DAY.

WINDS GENERALLY SW/W ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THIS
MORNING AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS...EXCEPT GUSTING TO 21 KNOTS AT
DIAMOND BUOY. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET BUT HAVE BEEN SEEING
SEAS AT 6 TO 8 FEET AT DIAMOND BUOY AS WATER TEMPERATURES THERE
ARE AT 71 DEGREES. THINK THIS IS A FAIRLY LOCALIZED PHENOMENON AND
STILL THINK THOSE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. PER LOCAL SWAN MODEL...SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 10
FEET OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS BY LATER TONIGHT.


LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM SUNDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH
SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS LATE MONDAY MORNING
WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-8 FT. POST- FRONTAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT NW AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED WITH THIS
MORNINGS PACKAGE. NW WINDS 25-35 KT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUNDS AND ALLIGATOR
RIVER. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY AND DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY...ESP FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FROM
OREGON INLET TO OCRACOKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE
EASTERN NC WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY...WINDS SHIFTING BUT REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
COLD AIR BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 2-4 FT TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN BUILD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH
III IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND 00Z WAVEWATCH
APPEARED REASONABLE FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ130-131-135.
     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     AMZ150.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CTC/DAG
MARINE...CTC/DAG





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