Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241948
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
348 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical airmass will interact with a slow moving cold front
impacting Eastern NC this weekend. The front will meander just
off the coast through Wednesday. High pressure will build in
from the west Wednesday through late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Deep moisture will overspread the
region tonight as tropical airmass interacts with an approaching
frontal boundary. Front is progged to push into the coastal
plain late tonight and early Sun morning.

Expect instability to wane with loss of heating, but forecast
soundings still show MU CAPE values around 1500 J/kg, 30-40kt
0-6km bulk shear overnight. Threat for isolated strong storms
with gusty winds will continue overnight, but think the main
threat will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and
minor flooding. Localized flash flooding will be possible
tonight with PWATS 2.25-2.5", warm cloud layer upwards of
14,000 ft, and storm motions nearly parallel to the upper level
flow. These factors will lead to very efficient rain processes,
and training of storms. Storm total rainfall 0.5-1.5" with
higher amounts possible, at this time expect higher totals along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...A frontal boundary combined with deep
moisture (Precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches) will
lead to a wet day along the coast as low-level moisture
transport and deep omega is maximized. With the cold front
across the central CWA, expect a sharp precip/moisture gradient,
thus categorical PoPs on the coast tapering back to low chance
over the Coastal Plains. Still enough instability around Sunday
morning for a few strong storms with CAPEs around 1000 J/kg near
the coast. Despite a good deal of cloud cover, high
temperatures should reach the mid/upper 80s in most areas
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sat...Scattered showers are possible Monday and
Tuesday. Then, cooler and much drier air will spread into
eastern NC from Wednesday into next weekend.

Sunday night through Tuesday...As the frontal boundary lingers
along the coast Sunday night and Monday morning, scattered
showers are possible and have chance PoPs across the coast.
Monday will be dry further inland, and high temps across the
region will be cooler than average, in the low to mid 80s.
Precipitation will be enhanced inland on Tuesday, as a strong
mid-level shortwave dives southeast across the Carolinas and
Virginia. Have high chance PoPs for most of the area Tuesday.
High temps Tuesday look to be a few degrees cooler, mostly in
the low 80s.

Wednesday through Saturday...Strong high pressure will move
overhead on Wednesday, and off the coast for the rest of the
week and into the weekend. While overhead, this high will
provide a somewhat refreshing airmass with lower humidities and
continued cooler high temperatures. Temperatures quickly warm
back up however, as southwest winds return on Thursday and
highs creep back to the upper 80s for late week.

Low temps for the period will range mostly from the upper 50slow
60s inland to upper 60s.low 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Sunday/...
As of 150 PM Saturday...Predominately VFR across the area and
this will continue outside of showers and thunderstorms that
will be developing this afternoon and increasing in coverage and
intensity into the evening. Winds have let up a bit inland, but
still can expect some gusts to 15 to 20 KT in the strong SW
flow. Some strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rain will be
possible this afternoon and tonight. Sub-VFR conditions
expected in convection, and expect predominate MVFR ceilings to
develop tonight and continue into early morning before becoming
MVFR by Sunday afternoon. Could see some areas of IFR ceilings
overnight towards morning as well.

Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Sat...Most of the rainfall and Sunday night
and Monday will be east of the TAF sites and VFR should
prevail. Scattered thunderstorms may produce scattered MVFR
ceilings/vsbys Tuesday. VFR conditions return Wednesday and
Thursday. As usual, patchy late night/early morning fog will be
possible, especially in areas that receive rainfall.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Winds will continue to diminish
overnight as a cold front moves into the area. Will expire SCA
for waters north of Oregon Inlet a bit early. The cold front
will slowly push into Eastern NC late tonight and early Sunday.
Winds and seas slowly subsiding overnight and Sunday morning. W
to SW winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT by late tonight. Seas
will be 2 to 4 feet north of oregon inlet and subsiding to 4-6
feet south of Oregon Inlet by Sunday Morning. Winds become more
WSW/W early Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon seas subside to
2 to 4 feet throughout the waters.

Scattered showers and storms this evening will become more
widespread tonight. Some strong storms with gusty winds and
frequent lightning possible. SCA will continue for Pamlico Sound
until 10 PM for gusty winds. For the central and southern
waters the SCA will expire early Sunday morning as seas subside
further.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 345 PM Sat...Light and variable winds are expected Monday
into Tuesday and will eventually turn to the north Wednesday
morning and remain light. Winds will then turn to the SE on
Thursday 5 to 10 kts. Seas will generally be 2-4 ft through the
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 330 PM Sat...Minor coastal flooding will be possible at
times of high tide through the weekend. Moderate threat of rip
currents north of Cape Hatteras, and High threat south of Cape
Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSB/SGK
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM...RSB/CQD
LONG TERM...CTC/SGK
AVIATION...RSB/CTC/CQD/SGK
MARINE...RSB/CTC/SGK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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