Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 252017
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
417 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the north will extend over the area through
Monday. A cold front will move through from the west Tuesday
night. An upper level low pressure system will move into the Mid-
Atlantic region Thursday and linger into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 415 PM Sun...Latest sfc analysis shows cold front extending
from Western NC into Eastern SC...and 1025mb high pressure
centered over Western Quebec extending into the Mid- Atlantic and
NC. High pressure will continue to build southward overnight.
Latest radar imagery shows isolated showers developing across SE
NC late this afternoon. Updated to remove pops from forecast for
the next few hours based on trends and high res guidance. Latest
satellite shows widespread cloud cover slowly beginning to erode
across the NE this afternoon, with cloudy skies becoming partly
cloudy tonight. Pleasantly cooler temps expected overnight with
skies slow clearing out for many locations combined with low
level NE flow. Overnight lows generally 60-65 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...High pressure to the north will gradually weaken
its hold over the area as it shifts off the eastern US while cold
front approaches from the west. Will add isolated shower mention
across the western coastal plain during afternoon, with high res
models showing potential for very isolated shower activity. Low
level thickness values and increasing cloud cover support highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...No significant changes made to previous
forecast. Little precip expected until late Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Model forecast soundings show moisture a bit
slower to return ahead of advancing cold front. Also, models show
much of the moisture along and behind the front. Began low chance
PoPs across the area after 06Z Tuesday. The front will pass
through eastern NC Tuesday night and move off the coast early
Wednesday, but moisture will be slow to clear out. Made only minor
adjustments to rain chances Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping
mainly 40-50%. Models now slower to move out precip Wednesday
night, then reintroduce PoPs Thursday with GFS now trending more
like the ECMWF and cutting off an upper low in the OH valley
region Wednesday night, slowly moving southeastward into Friday.
Will therefore keep low chance on Thursday...and may need to add
pop into Friday as well if models continue keep cutoff low in the
vicinity. Models continue to differ with the track of the low and
its movement. Will not make significant changes and lean towards
previous forecast. Will keep forecast dry this weekend, except for
a slight chance along the immediate coast/OBX and coastal waters
in northeast flow.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Widespread MVFR ceilings slowly lifting to
VFR..and should be pred VFR by late afternoon...though could
linger at OAJ into early evening. Isolated showers possible this
afternoon, but not enough coverage to warrant mention in TAFs at
this time. Pred VFR expected overnight, though guidance continues
to show the potential for some sub-VFR fog/stratus. Think boundary
layer will remain mixed with some drier air pushing into the
area...though if sites see clearing and winds decouple could have
some patchy fog develop. VFR conditions expected for Monday.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Sub-VFR in scattered showers Tuesday through
Thursday. Patchy fog and stratus will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Monday/...
As of 415 PM Sunday...Dropped SCA for the central waters with last
several obs 5 ft. Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5
feet. High pressure will build in from the north overnight and
Monday. Winds will diminish to 10-15 kt tonight with seas
subsiding to 2-4 feet. Winds will be gradually veering Monday as
high to the north weakens and shifts off the coast...with E flow
5-15 kt becoming SE with seas 2-4 feet.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Wind direction will make several changes in the
long term, but speeds will remain rather light as pressure
gradient will remain loose. Corresponding seas will remain well
below Small Craft advisory levels, no higher than 2-4 feet. High
pressure to the north Monday night will move east, and a cold
front will approach from the west Tuesday. As a result, winds will
steadily veer from east on Monday to southeast Monday night, then
south on Tuesday. The cold front will pass through the marine
zones early Wednesday with winds becoming northerly and continuing
into Thursday. Wind directions remain uncertain for Thursday and
Friday with models now cutting off an upper low well west of the
waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...CQD/HSA


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