Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281345
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
945 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO SIG CHANGES. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO
INIT T/TD. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM
OFFSHORE...WHILE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY/SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WEST OF HWY
17. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE INLAND THAN YESTERDAY...GIVEN
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. CONT
CHC POPS DEEP INLAND. GOOD INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTN THOUGH
WITH LITTLE TO NO SHEAR EXPECT TYPICAL SEABREEZE DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6" AND WEAK FLOW. SIMILAR TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS 14-15C SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE SE/ELY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURES THRU THE
WEEKEND. A WEAKENING INVERTED TROF WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
SOUTHERN COAST EARLY FRI BEFORE DISSIPATED AND MAY SET OFF A FEW
SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE IT APPEARS MID LVL DRYING ASSOC
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS MOST DIURNAL PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY.

WILL RENEW SLIGHT AFTN/EVENING PRECIP CHCS INLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES THE UPR RDG A
BIT...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE SAT AND SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY 85-90 INLAND AROUND 80/LOW 80S BEACHES AND LOWS
AT NIGHT MID-UPPER 60S INLAND AROUND 70 COAST.

BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIP DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DIFFICULT TO TIME THIS FROPA
GIVEN MODEL SPREAD BUT EXPECT THAT MAIN IMPACTS WRT TO PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BE MON/TUE BEFORE POSSIBLY MOVING BACK NORTH OR
DISSIPATING DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...SCT DIURNAL SHOWER/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. CONT VCSH AT ISO AND PGV TAF SITES AFT 17Z.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE TYPICAL THREAT OF PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG OR STRATUS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST WITH LIGHT WINDS BUT
COVERAGE AND DURATION SHLD BE QUITE LIMITED. ALSO COULD BE SOME
ISOLD/SCTD SHRA/TSRA DURING AFTN/EARLY EVENING INLAND MOST DAYS
ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NO CHANGES NEEDED ON UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO EXTEND OVER THE WATERS FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATEST OBS SHOW S/SE WINDS 5-15KT...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS...AND SEAS 2-3FT. S/SE WINDS 5-15KT CONTINUE
TODAY. NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILDING TO 4FT ON THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS SWELL ENERGY INCREASES AROUND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO
THE EAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI...BECOMING MORE SE/ELY.

LONG TERM /FRI THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 225 AM THU...LIGHT E WINDS EXPECTED FRI AS HIGH PRES TO THE
NE EXTENDS INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SE LATER FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER E. LIGHT MOSTLY S WINDS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N. THE BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE N THRU MON WITH CONT LIGHT S TO
SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

LONG FETCH OF E WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL E OF NC WILL LEAD TO
BUILDING E SWELLS LATER FRI INTO SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4
FEET LATER FRI THEN EXPECT SOME 5 FOOT SEAS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS
SWELL PEAKS...THE HIGHER SEAS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL/SRN WATERS. AS THE SWELL SUBSIDES SUN INTO MON SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2 TO 3 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...JAC/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/BTC
AVIATION...JAC/RF/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/CQD



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