Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 202045
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
345 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER ALONG SE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT, SLOW MOVING WEAK
SFC LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES TO PERSIST NEAR SE COASTAL AREAS WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
INLAND. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IF ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS INLAND
BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF
MORE CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL TEND TO KEEP TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT SO HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RANGING
FROM THE LOW/MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER 30S/LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS SUNDAY AND
KEEPS SKIES MAINLY CLOUDY ALONG THE SE COAST. AT LEAST PARTIAL
SUNSHINE POSSIBLE NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS BUT COOL ONSHORE FLOW
AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL COLD POOL WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE SE COAST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE THE SE COAST BUT EXPECT SUNDAY WILL A
DRY DAY FOR MOST OVER EASTERN NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...A VERY ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LONG TERM.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA/COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE NE OFF THE NC
COAST ON MONDAY. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST TREND WITH INC POPS TO
LIKELIES FROM S TO N ON SUN NIGHT...CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS ON
MONDAY. LOOKS LIKE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT AS PRECIP WILL MAINLY
BE ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP TEMP
GRADIENT FROM THE COAST TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AS IN SITU CAD
LINGERS INLAND. MOS GUID HAS A TOUGH TIME WITH THESE TYPES OF
SITUATIONS SO CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE NEAR 50 READINGS COASTAL
PLAIN TO NEAR 60 ON THE COAST. MAY EVEN BE A BIT WARMER ON THE
COAST IF LOW TRACKS THROUGH CARTERET COUNTY AS ECMWF IS
DEPICTING... BRINGING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN AREAS.

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
TUESDAY WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS IN RESPONSE. STILL THINK THAT MON NIGHT AND TUE THERE WILL
BE A LULL IN PRECIP AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE OCCURS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
MONDAY SYSTEM...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE LOWER POPS AS A RESULT. BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN COME IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODEL SUITE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM A BIT...SO NOW
IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL NOT EXIT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WED. THE
MAIN LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS IT DEEPENS...AND 20/12Z
ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT ON WED AS THE REGION IS IN FAVORABLE RIGHT
FRONT QUAD OF 140+ KT JET STREAK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE OMEGA/FRONTOGENSIS BEGINNING LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF WED. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT IN HIGH POPS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL EXPAND MENTION OF THUNDER TO ALL AREAS
DUE TO THE SLOWING OF THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE A HIGH
SHEAR/LOW CAPE SETUP AS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH
MODELS SHOWING 0-6KM SHEAR 40-50KT AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
HELICITY VALUES DUE TO BACKED SSE SFC FLOW. IF ANY INSTABILITY IS
REALIZED THIS COULD MEAN A SMALL CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH LOWS LIKELY REALIZED EARLY
IN THE EVENING...THEN STEADILY RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS S FLOW
INCREASES. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL RISE STEADILY THROUGH THE 60S
EARLY WED AND LOOK TO REACH THE 70S BY WED AFTERNOON. TEMPS COULD
BE IN THE RECORD HIGH TERRITORY AS 850MB TEMP M-CLIMATE
PERCENTILES ARE ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO THE GEFS.
ANY SUNSHINE REALIZED ON WED WOULD ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AND NEARING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST YIELDING DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. IT WILL STILL BE GUSTY AS WESTERLY
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO BEHIND THE FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AS UPPER
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S THURSDAY...THEN WARMING TO ABOVE CLIMO FRI INTO SAT
WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 1220 PM SATURDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE. THIS WILL YIELD RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. CEILINGS SHOULD HOVER IN THE
MVFR/VFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT DECKS
LOWERING TO IFR BRIEFLY. RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. WITH
SOME MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWEST 6KFT OVERNIGHT...CAN NOT RULE
OUT PATCHY STRATUS. HOWEVER...FEEL CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MID-LEVELS/VFR CRITERIA WITH CONTINUED LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM SAT...IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION DEVELOPS...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN. THE POOR FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MON NIGHT AND
EVEN TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VERY WEAK AND TOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM FOR LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SWITCHING TO WEST AND GUSTY ON WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. HIGH PRES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THUR AND FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE FORECAST THRU SUNDAY. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE N/NE FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN N/NE WINDS 10-15 KT OVER THE
MARINE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONT MAINLY IN
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...WITH SOME 4 FOOTERS BUILDING OVER THE
OUTER WTRS THRU SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 345 PM SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/COASTAL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NE
WINDS WILL BACK E THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. COULD SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA AHEAD OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW AS NE/E GRADIENT
IS PINCHED AS THE LOW RIDES UP THE COAST ON MON. THE WEAK SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AWAY OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND
EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AND INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS RESPOND
BY BUILDING AND PEAKING AT 6-12 FT WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUED
PREVIOUS SEAS FCST AS WAVEWATCH IV SEEMS UNDERDONE WITH SEAS. THE
20/12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE GALE FORCE WINDS
DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF THESE WINDS
AND PREVIOUS FCST WINDS. IT APPEARS WINDS WILL GUST TO LOW END
GALES EVEN WITH THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE WIND FCST...WITH
MOST LIKELY AREAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WATERS AND PERHAPS
PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...TL/DAG
AVIATION...RF/TL/LEP
MARINE...BTC/TL





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