Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031342
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
942 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF
THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 940 AM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH VALUES AROUND 1.8" WHICH IS +2SD
ABOVE NORMAL. IMPINGING UPON THIS WAS A WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH HAS BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY
IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING AND MOVING OFF OF THE COAST. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CAM HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS ACTIVITY WELL THIS
MORNING AND INDICATE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING BY NOON.

MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ASSUMING THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABLE TO RECOVER FROM THIS
MORNINGS ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS TD`S WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S
MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 80S...POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER
SHOULD THERE BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN EXPECTED. 500 MB
FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KT BY EVENING AS JET ENERGY IMPINGES
ON THE CAROLINAS...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING BULK SHEAR
UP TO 50 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF E NC SAVE FOR THE OUTER BANKS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
TODAY. IF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CORRECT THAN CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN
MOVE INTO COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF EASTERN NC THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THUS WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AFTER 16Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEST CHANCES AND
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS EVENING...
AS ANY CONVECTION WEST OF THE FA MOVES INTO E NC WITH INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 22Z. ATMS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EVENING
AIDED BY CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WAA AND SLOWLY FALLING HTS ALOFT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A SLIM TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP AS WELL
DUE TO A SLIGHT BACKING OF SFC WINDS THIS EVENING...ACTING TO
INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY AFTER 00Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY WHILE
CHANNELED VORTICITY/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION.
POPS WILL BE LOWER BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN PEAK HEATING OCCURS COINCIDENT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S, WARMEST ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...00Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND DRIVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE ON FRIDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY WHEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, WITH WEAKLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS THURSDAY ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 70S AND SHOULD BE
SURPASSED BY LATE MORNING. IF CLEARING OF CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DOES NOT OCCUR, THEN TEMPS WILL BE
OVERDONE AND CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CAPPED. LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...TROFFING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. KEPT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRIDAY THEN LOWERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NE COAST. TEMPS WILL
BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL FEATURE HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MOST OF THE REGION.
THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
AXIS FINALLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO NORMAL
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE AS
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MAX TEMPS BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR INLAND SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MILD, 60S AREA WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TAF
PERIOD THOUGH WILL SEE TEMPO REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST BY SUNSET. ANOTHER REDUCTION IN CIGS OR VSBYS TO IFR LATE
THIS EVENING BUT WILL NOT GO LOWER THAN MVFR DUE TO LACK OF
CONFIDENCE IN IFR THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT S TO
SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION INTO A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN
WITH LESS CONVECTION AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS IS TYPICAL
THIS TIME OF YEAR, ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIPITATION MAY SEE
ENHANCED STRATUS AND FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONS OFF THE COAST, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KT CONTINUE TO BE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA EARLY THIS MORN WITH SEAS 3-5
FEET. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS REACHING SCA CRITERIA FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS, WITH FREQUENT WIND GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS TO 6
FEET HERE. BY LATE TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO
NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 435 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WITH
SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
YIELDING SEAS 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WITH 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 5-15 KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, THEN WAVEWATCH APPEARED
REASONABLE WITH FORECAST WINDS FOR THE EXTENDED RANGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...JME/DAG/TL


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