Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200447
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1247 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the region through Saturday and
then slide offshore Sunday into Monday. A strong cold front will
approach from the west Tuesday and move across the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...High pressure over the area tonight
continues to produce clear skies and light winds resulting in
strong radiational cooling. This will in turn lead to the
development of areas of fog, locally dense with visibilities 1/4
to 1/2 mile at times through early Friday morning. No change to
forecast lows of 45 to 50 inland and upper 50s to lower 60s
beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...Another fair weather day on tap with max
temps 1-2 degrees warmer. Ridging aloft will result in surface
high over Appalachians building E-NE, with a minor wind shift to
NW-N over eastern NC. Low level thicknesses rise a few meters,
supporting highs 77-80 inland with mid 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 pm Thu...Friday night through Sunday...High pressure
centered over the area will move off the coast this weekend.
High temps will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Sat and Sun.
Morning lows will be in the upr 40s/mid 50s Sat morning, and
into the 50s Sun morning.

Monday through Thursday...Next significant shortwave/cold front
moves into the eastern CONUS by early next week. The models have
slowed down the progression of the shortwave and cold front,
especially the ECMWF. The upper trough becomes a closed low and
hence a slower solution would be favored. With the run-to-run
inconsistency amongst global model suite having a tough time
resolving amplitude of short wave trough and thus timing of the
associated cold front will continue with just chance PoPs.
Shower chances will increase Monday into Monday night, going
with 20-30% Monday and 40-50% Monday night. Highest PoPs are
now Tue into Tue night, though Wed could be quite wet if the
slower ECM verifies, so pops are 40-50 percent through mid week.
Too early to tell if thunder will be a factor, but have
maintained the slight chc thunder mention as at least some weak
instability will be present with decent shear parameters. Monday
looks to be the warmest day with highs in the low 80s inland to
70s beaches. Tue could be equally warm with the slower
advancement of the front. Lows early next week quite mild with
the warm and moist southerly flow with readings mainly in the
60s. Dry and cooler conditions expected behind the front Thursday
with highs in the mid 60s throughout.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 0Z Saturday/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...With clear skies/calm winds/strong
radiational cooling and with forecast lows expected to be in the
mid 40s at the TAF sites tonight, areas of fog with LIFR/IFR
conditions should develop at all of the TAF sites as
temperatures drop below the crossover temps by 9Z. The fog
should dissipate around 13Z with VFR conditions and light winds
expected through Friday evening. Could see another round of fog
and sub VFR conditions develop after 6Z Friday night under
similar conditions to tonight.


Long Term /Fri night through Tue/
As of 245 pm Thu...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
weekend. However, there will be optimal radiational conditions
Fri night, and some patchy steam fog may be possible at both
KPGV and KEWN with their proximity to rivers. Maybe a better
chance of more widespread overnight/early morning fog all TAF
sites this weekend as low level moisture increases and skies
remain clear with calm winds each night. Sub-VFR in scattered
showers spreading in from the southwest Monday into Monday night
and Tuesday ahead of the next front approaching from the west.
Isolated thunder possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 1245 AM Friday...Light winds, mainly 10 kt or less are
expected through Friday as high pressure continues over the
waters. Seas will be 3-4 ft through the period. .

Long Term /Fri night through Tue/
As of 245 pm Thu...High pressure over the region Fri night will
shift east. Northeast winds Fri night and Sat will become east
Sunday though speeds only 5-10 kt through the period with seas
2-4 ft bringing excellent boating conditions throughout the
marine zones. Winds will turn southeast then south on Monday as
high pressure moves further offshore. Winds will slowly increase
from 5-10 kt in the morning to 10-15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
will be 2-4 ft north of Cape Hatteras and 3-5 ft south. Strong
small craft conditions will develop on the coastal waters Monday
night into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens up ahead
of the approaching front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM/EH
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/JBM/EH/HSA
MARINE...JME/JBM/EH/HSA


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