Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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385
FXUS62 KMHX 221740
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1240 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend over the area from the
Western Atlantic through this evening and produce a very warm
southerly flow across the region. A backdoor cold front will
sag south into northern portions of Eastern North Carolina late
tonight and early Friday then lift back north Friday afternoon.
A cold front will move through the area Sunday night into early
Monday. Another front will impact the area during the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 915 AM Thursday...Low clouds and fog are eroding as
expected most areas. May linger a bit longer nrn coast where
SST are cooler. With skies becoming PC/msunny...SW sfc flow and
very high thickness values expect record to near record highs
in lower 80s inland to 70s coast.

Prev disc...NC still is under the influence of the historically
strong (for this time of year) upper ridge with this system
expected to weaken over the next 48 hours in response to
shortwave energy ejecting east out of the western trough. This
will allow a backdoor cold front to sag south into northern
portions of Eastern NC late tonight. The record to near record
heat will continue today with high temperatures inland in the
upper 70s to low 80s and 70 to 75 along the immediate coast.

Satellite and surface observations indicate that fog and low
clouds have become widespread across the region early this
morning in response to moist inflow underneath the nocturnal
inversion. Have issued a SPS statement as 1/4 visibilities are
currently widely scattered. Expect the clouds and fog inland to
dissipate similar to the past couple of days between 9 and 11
AM. The potential for Sea Fog could cause these conditions to
linger longer along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 600 AM Thursday...The backdoor front is forecast to sag
south into northern portions of Eastern NC late tonight. The
front will be moisture starved and at worst expect an isolated
shower or two with it. Should see redevelopment of fog and low
clouds after midnight as airmass ahead of the front will be
similar to previous few nights. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler than the past 2 nights mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...Strong high pressure at the surface and
aloft offshore will continue to provide a warm southwest flow
into the region Friday into the weekend. An approaching cold
front coupled with deep moisture will lead to an increased rain
threat Sunday into Monday before another cold front brings a
return to dry weather Tuesday.

Friday and Saturday...Near-record high temperatures expected
given southwest flow and unusually high 500 mb heights over the
region. A weak back door front may move into the far northern
counties early Friday, but should quickly move back north. High
temperatures will be well into the 70s with a few spots reaching
the lower 80s inland both Friday and Saturday. GFS/ECMWF show
the development of a few showers Saturday given an increase in
precipitable water ahead of next front.

Sunday through Monday night...Deeper moisture will be drawn
north into the eastern Carolinas ahead of cold front as ridge to
the east weakens and moves east. Continued high chance PoPs
Sunday night and especially Monday when deepest moisture and
best lift is in place. Continued very warm Sunday in warm sector
ahead of front with highs well into the 70s, but as front moves
offshore later Sunday night, highs on Monday will range mostly
in the upper 50s to lower 60s with more widespread precipitation
expected.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry high pressure will build across the
region with cooler temperatures, but still above normal under
mostly clear skies. Highs will generally be in the 60s with lows
in the 40s, still about 10 degrees above normal for this time of
year.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...An increase in deep moisture
ahead of low pressure crossing the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys
will lead to another round of showers Wednesday night into
Thursday. Have high chance PoPs in the forecast. Temperatures
will remain mild, despite the precipitation however.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through Fri/...
As of 1225 PM Thursday...Mainly VFR thru this evening with sct
to bkn Cu this aftn that shld dissipate late today. Tonight
grdnt will relax as weak backdoor cold front sags S into the
region late. Very moist low lvls will cont with areas of fog
and low stratus developing again with IFR expected most sites
poss dropping to LIFR at times. The weak front will slowly lift
back N Fri. Appears srn tier will quickly see fog/st dissipate
with VFR by mid/late morn. Nrn tier may hold onto lower clouds
and vsbys til late morn or early aftn with VFR all areas later
in aftn.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail Friday night and
Saturday as high pressure continues to circulate warm air into
the region on S/SW winds. Some periods of sub-VFR conditions,
likely MVFR, are expected Sunday into Monday as an approaching
frontal system will bring more numerous showers, especially
behind the cold front on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 915 AM Thursday...Based on satl and web cams will drop
dense fog advisory for all but nrn wtrs. will extend the DFA a
cpl hours nrn wtrs as may take longer to lift/mix out where SST
are cooler.

Prev disc...No change to the overall pattern with Atlantic high
pressure continuing over the waters through at least this
evening producing southerly flow 5 to 15 kt and 2 to 4 ft seas.
Sea fog will again occur at times across the waters with a Dense
Fog Advisory in effect for all waters until 10 AM. This fog
could linger into the afternoon, especially over the sounds and
waters north of Cape Hatteras. Late tonight a backdoor cold
front could sag south into the northern waters and Albemarle
Sound region with winds briefly shifting to N around 10 kt.


Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 325 AM Thursday...Not alot of change in the latest marine
forecast. A weak backdoor cold front will move into the far
northern waters early Friday, briefly causing the winds to veer
to NW/N, but winds should quickly become S/SW Friday afternoon
and Saturday. Expect 10-15 knot winds for this period with seas
of 2-4 feet. Small Craft Advisory conditions still look like a
given on Sunday ahead of the cold front with gusty SW winds of
20-25 knots and seas building to as high as 6-7 feet, south of
Oregon Inlet. Winds subside again Monday behind the front as
winds become northerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Temps could approach and/or break records today.

Record High Temps 2/22 (Thursday)

LOCATION           TEMP/YEAR
Cape Hatteras      76/1971  (KHSE)
Greenville         80/2003  (COOP)
Jacksonville       77/2003  (KNCA)
Kinston            78/2003  (COOP)
Morehead City      72/1971  (COOP)
New Bern           80/1980  (KEWN)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/JME/CTC
CLIMATE...MHX



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