Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 301544
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1044 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...BUMPED UP THE WINDS AND GUSTS OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL
WATERS TO REFLECT SCEC LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED THIS MORNING...AND
UPDATED THE CWF TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES. OTHERWISE FORECAST SEEMS TO
BE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...MID TO UPPER TROF AXIS WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE CWFA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A DEEPER
LAYER OF COOLER DRIER AIR TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
REGION TONIGHT AND AND EARLY FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO BETTER
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH TONIGHT. TO THE NORTHWEST NEXT
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA REACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY 12Z FRI. AS MAIN SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF
TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE
AFFECT ON NIGHT TIME TEMPS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES VALUES ACROSS THE REGION
BY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI
MORNING. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER MET/MAV MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY CONTINUING WITH THIS TREND FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO THE DEPTH OF COOLER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THE
MIDDLE 70S TO THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 TO THE NORTH AND EAST...NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND
THE MIDDLE 40S FOR AREAS TO THE WEST INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
32/EE

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE OH/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.4 TO 0.6
INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...SO NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. WE
CURRENTLY EXPECT READINGS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA TO THE MID 70S FARTHER SOUTH
AND EAST. A COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DECREASE
OVER INLAND AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT...LOOKING FOR OVERNIGHT READINGS TO
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A FEW INTERIOR LOCATIONS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. /21

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY AND INTO THE ADJACENT
WESTERN ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHILE RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SUNDAY. A DEEP DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
INTACT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES NIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRETCH FROM THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY...KEEPING
COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 925 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4-6 C ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A VERY DRY SURFACE AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT. WE ARE EXPECTING SOME OF
THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS AUTUMN SEASON BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD EXPERIENCE THE
FIRST LIGHT FREEZE OF THE SEASON...WHILE PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR CWFA. WE EXPECT LOWS
SUNDAY MORNING TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWFA...AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY...WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS STRETCHING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL PENINSULA AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
INCREASES FROM THE NORTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE MS/TN VALLEY REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE VICINITY
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS MOISTURE
MAY BEGIN TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OUR DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY. WE WILL KEEP
POPS LOW LATE IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND MUCH
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /21

AVIATION...
30.12Z ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 31.12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AT
7 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW
WILL PERSIST OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN REBUILD
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRI MORNING DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE.
AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION EARLY TODAY AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN EARLY FRI MORNING...MOSTLY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS
INCLUDING THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND. BY
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT A MUCH STRONGER/DEEPER SURGE OF COLDER AIR
WILL ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SAT. GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY
WELL OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOWER END OF MOBILE BAY. SEAS UP TO 9
FEET MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE SECOND COLD FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. BY LATE SUN INTO MON STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD RESULTING
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 32/EE

FIRE WEATHER...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DURATIONS SHOULD BE BRIEF AND OTHER CRITERIA DO
NOT LOOK TO MEET RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLDER
AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR
CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MINIMUM RH VALUES DROP INTO THE
MID 20 PERCENT RANGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OTHER CRITERIA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO DETERMINE IF FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES NEED
TO BE INCLUDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  45  74  39  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   76  48  73  43  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  51  71  44  59 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   72  40  74  36  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  73  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      71  40  72  34  58 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   75  38  75  39  60 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


CRP/90






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