Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 170933
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
433 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH HAS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 60-80 MILES
OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE...SFC THETA-E OBS INDICATE A WEAK FRONT IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH
THIS MORNING...STALLING NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A DEEP LAYER NW FLOW IS
USHERING IN DRIER MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
EVENING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING TONIGHT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION...A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ALONG THE BEACHES.

DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH A NE-SW GRADIENT IN DEWPOINTS SETTING
UP...LOWEST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AL COUNTIES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW-MID 60S FAR NE ZONES TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. 34/JFB

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...SEPARATING FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH (WHICH FILLS IN THE PROCESS). THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST...WHILST
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RIDGELINE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS LITTLE. THE RESULT IS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING ONSHORE OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN HALF OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW COMES AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURE REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
LEVELS...WITH THE AIRMASS THAT FILTERS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
MORE DRY THAN COOL. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP...WHICH REMAINS
GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE LAND PORTION OF THE FA INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A COMBINATION OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN US ROCKIES TO OVER THE PLAINS WORKING
WITH MORE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
ENERGY OVER FL BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...TO OVER THE TENN/CAROLINAS/GA AREA BY SUNDAY MORN. THIS HELPS
TO SWITCH THE GENERAL LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO NORTHEAST TO EAST OVER
THE FA AND LESSEN THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REMAINS OF ODILE GET ABSORBED INTO THE
ENERGY WHICH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FROM OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS ENERGY PUSHES A FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO OVER
THE FA BY MONDAY EVENING. WITH THE MOISTURE SHUT OFF AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN INCREASES...BUT ONLY TO AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS ADVERTISING THE UPPER ENERGY OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS ORGANIZING INTO A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WHILST
THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE IN SWINGING THE ENERGY EAST...THROUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH. BOTH ADVERTISE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX...WHERE IT BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. WITH AN INCREASE OF PRECIP OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA COMES AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...PATCHY FOG/STRATUS AROUND 12Z WILL BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORM...MAINLY
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF AL/NW FL. PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z THU. 34/JFB


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...BECOMING OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES BACK TO THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPING. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS (15-20 KT) ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
WINDS DECREASE BY SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MARINE
AREA WEAKENS. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
BUILDING TO 3-4 FT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING EAST WINDS. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      90  70  90  69  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  90  71  88 /  20  10  05  10  20
DESTIN      86  76  89  76  87 /  20  10  05  10  20
EVERGREEN   90  64  91  66  90 /  10  05  05  10  10
WAYNESBORO  90  68  91  65  91 /  10  05  10  10  10
CAMDEN      90  64  91  65  90 /  05  05  05  10  10
CRESTVIEW   90  65  92  67  90 /  20  10  05  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

34/16






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