Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 030456 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1156 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA WILL BE REPLACED
BY A IFR/MVFR CEILING WHICH SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE
CEILING IMPROVES TO MVFR/VFR TUESDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF I-65 TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
GENERALLY EAST OF I-65...WITH COVERAGE THEN DECREASING LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WHICH PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 716 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS BELOW.

UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH HIGH POPS MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR CONVECTION
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THESE PORTIONS. BASED ON THE
LATEST DATA...MADE ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR POP TIMING OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SLOWLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...WILL BEGIN WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND MAINLY ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CEILINGS LOWER IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
DECREASING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY/...A VERY SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT EAST INTO
THE FCST AREA BY END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A MOIST AND UNSETTLED
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...OVER OUR
AREA...THROUGH MOST OF TUESDAY. COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT HAVE BEEN INITIATING CONVECTION EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE FCST AREA PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 9-10 PM THIS EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...BUT
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED. WILL AGAIN HAVE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT MORE
CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH OF I-65 AS THE FRONT WILL BE
WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. A FEW OF THE
STORMS...BOTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE COVERAGE LESSENS AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY...COULD BE STRONG BUT WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT IS VERY LOW.
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL
THOUGH...SO SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING ISSUES MAY OCCUR IN AREAS
WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER SAME LOCATIONS OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD. LATE
TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WITH THE WET GROUND
AND AT LEAST SOME OCNL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST. LOWS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST (AND A FEW
LOWER 70S AT THE COAST). HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...BY EARLY TUE
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING GENERALLY EAST OF
PENSACOLA FL AND OFFSHORE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING...THEN EXITING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT MAIN UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF STATES THROUGH WED WITH TROF AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WED. WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH TUES NIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING FOLLOWED
BY GOOD CLEARING GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED MORNING THROUGH
WED NIGHT. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MOST
AREAS BY EARLY WED COMBINED WITH SURFACE TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE MID
70S AT MOST BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE WEST...COMBINED WITH A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM EAST TX AND THE WESTERN GULF
REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE WEEKEND. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AND ADJUST FOR CONSISTENCY WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUN INTO MON. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM THE FL/GA COAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES
LATE SAT THROUGH MON LEADING TO A WEAK RETURN FLOW BY SAT AFTERNOON
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BETTER CLOUDS AND SURFACE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION BY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. 32/EE

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY (WITH
BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF MARINE ZONES). A
RE-ENFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY...
ENHANCING THE OFFSHORE FLOW. BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS (WITH SUBSIDING SEAS)...AND THEN BECOMES MORE
VARIABLE WITH SMALL SEA STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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