Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 231116 AAA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
616 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Low clouds and patchy light rain will continue
around area terminals through mid morning before conditions begin
improving by late morning and through the afternoon. VFR
conditions develop by afternoon and continue through the remainder
of the period. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Morning water vapor imagery
indicates a strongly positive tilt trough across central portions of
the country. Ahead of the trough, a cold front continues to move
eastward across the central Gulf Coast this morning. Showers and
thunderstorms along a pre-frontal trough continue across the eastern
sections of the area with more isolated to scattered convection
along the front. Scattered showers and a few storms will linger
through this morning until the upper trough passes by early this
afternoon. Rain will end from west to east this afternoon with
clearing skies through the afternoon. Highs today will range from
the upper 60s and low 70s inland to low and mid 70s along the
coast. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 40s and low 50s
inland to mid and upper 50s along the coast. /13

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...The upper low
currently over the forecast area moves off and with more shortwave
energy moving over and east of the US Rockies, an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Southern Plains. This ridge then moves
east over the Lower Mississippi River and Southeast. This will
push a pool of cooler air that moves over the forecast area today
into tonight quickly east as it moves a surface ridge over and
east of the Mississippi river. For the forecast, with the upper
ridge moving quickly over and east of the forecast area,
increasing subsidence from the ridge will bring a quick return of
temps above seasonal. Highs Monday in the mid 70s northeast to
upper 70s west expected, with lows ranging from around 50 well
inland to around 60 along the coast Monday night. Highs Tuesday
in the low to mid 80s return, with lows Tuesday night ranging
from the low 50s to low 60s along the coast.

/16

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...In the extended, a deep
upper trough sets up over the Rockies as more shortwave energy
moves over the West behind the first Rockies energy. Wednesday
into Friday, this first round of energy pushes a weak front across
the area Thursday. There is a bit of concern with this first
round. It`s passage is during the day, with enough instability
for strong to severe storms. Low level wind shear is high for a
few spinners. Upper support remains north of the forecast area,
helping to lower the severe risk. At this point, it does not look
like an organized severe event, but do feel an eye should be kept
on this for now. For the rest of the forecast, temps above
seasonal expected with the upper ridge building and settling off
the East Coast, but close enough for the forecast area to see
continued subsidence. Highs Wednesday and Thursday in the mid 80s,
plus or minus, expected, with lows Wednesday night ranging from
low 60s well inland to around 70 along the coast.

Thursday night through Saturday, the shortwave energy over the
West meanders around, organizing into a closed upper low through
Friday, then begins to move east. As this system organizes, and
upper ridge builds over the East. With the building upper high to
the east of the forecast area, temps rise to well above seasonal
levels. Highs in the mid to upper 80s expected Friday and
Saturday, with overnight lows in the 60s Thursday and Friday
nights. Pieces of shortwave energy ejecting from the western
system pass near the forecast area , bringing a chance of rain to
areas northwest of I65 into the weekend.

/16

MARINE...A moderate to occasionally strong offshore flow will
develop today in the wake of a cold front and continues through
Monday morning. Winds and seas subside Tuesday and gradually become
more onshore through midweek. /13

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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