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000
FXUS64 KMOB 091802 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...COLD FRONT AS OF 17Z IS NOW APPROACHING
ANDALUSIA...CRESTVIEW...AND DESTIN. THE FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE NOTED A SOLID AREA OF
LIGHT RETURNS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPRINKLES OR A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD END VERY SHORTLY WITH THE
FROPA. BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 30 MPH. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN WITH THOSE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN
REACHED FOR TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND HAVE
REFLECTED THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL STRATOCU
PERSISTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND SKIES LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR
VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE.
MVFR LOW LEVEL STRATOCU TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY...GUSTING TO 25 KT AT TIMES. CIGS
TO IMPROVE BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  34/JFB

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 410 AM CST)...

.SHORT TERM...UPSTREAM...FORECASTERS SEE A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
PLUNGE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS IN THE CARDS TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH NOSES EASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO SINK INTO THE MID 20S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...EXCEPT NEAR THE
COAST WHERE READINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S. BRISK CONDITIONS
WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH LOOK TO CONTINUE NEAR THE
BEACHES TONIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. /10

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A DRY AND COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AFTER A MORNING START WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE SQUEEZED OFF TO THE
NORTH AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS SOUTH INTO TEXAS AND DEVELOPS
THE NEXT GULF LOW. THE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN STAYING WELL
SOUTH OF THE COAST. THE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL ALLOW MORE COLD AIR TO
BE PULLED INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL MAKE FOR AN INTERESTING
FORECAST FOR LATE WEEK. WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE WARMER GULF OF MEXICO AND ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT AND OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER. STILL...THICKNESS VALUES ARE CRITICAL
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AND A JUST FEW DEGREES AND A MORE OR LESS
MOISTURE IN THE CRYSTAL GROWTH ZONE CAN MAKE OR BREAK A FORECAST.
WILL START OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ALL
ZONES EXCEPT A SLEET/RAIN MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST WHERE DRY AIR MAY
ALLOW ENOUGH COOLING FOR SLEET...REST OF AREA MORE THAN LIKELY JUST
SEEING SPRINKLES. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE NORTHERN ZONES MAY HAVE
COOLED ENOUGH FOR A LIGHT RAIN/SLEET OR RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO TO NEAR 40. THURSDAY NIGHT THE MIX WILL
SPREAD SOUTH TO THE COAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY BEING ALL SNOW TO THE
NORTH. TOO EARLY FOR ANY ACCUMULATION STATEMENT IN THE ZONES BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE
MORNING. /11

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH THE GULF
LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AND MOVING EAST WITH A MIX
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY AFTERNOON EXPECT
THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM ENOUGH ALOFT THAT IT WILL ALL CHANGE TO A
LIGHT RAIN BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS AT OR
BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WITH UPPER 20S IN THE COLDER SPOTS. PARTLY
CLOUDY BUT STILL ON THE COOL SIDE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. /11
ENDED

.MARINE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS SETTING UP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH THESE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST GRIDDED
FORECAST OF WINDS/SEAS SUGGEST EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR THE AL/WRN
FLORIDA OPEN GULF WATERS TO NOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH MID WEEK...WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID GULF
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. NORTHEAST FLOW RESPONDS BY INCREASING
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH. SEAS BUILD LATE IN THE WEEK.  THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL OF A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS
SUBSIDE LATE SATURDAY. /10

.FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR THE WEST
FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO
GUIDELINES BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURNS BEFORE
PUTTING UP A WATCH OR WARNING FOR THURSDAY. /11

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      54  26  52  29 /  10  00  00  10
PENSACOLA   58  30  54  32 / 100  00  00  05
DESTIN      59  33  53  34 / 100  00  00  05
EVERGREEN   53  25  52  26 /  60  00  00  05
WAYNESBORO  51  25  50  26 /  10  00  00  05
CAMDEN      51  25  49  26 /  60  00  00  10
CRESTVIEW   57  26  53  25 / 100  00  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES:MOBILE BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$