Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 252158
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...A cold front just to the northwest
of our forecast area, extending from extreme northwestern AL back
across northern MS and into northern LA early this afternoon, is
expected to move down into the forecast area tonight and become
nearly stationary. A fairly stable, rain cooled airmass has filtered
into most of the forecast area today as a strong outflow boundary
moved south across the area and offshore. As the just mentioned
front drifts south down into the area tonight, a couple of weak
upper air disturbances in the southwesterly flow aloft will lift
northeast across the area. With the front providing a low level
focus and some lift generated by the shortwave energy, expect
another round of showers and possible thunderstorms to move east
across the forecast area overnight. Main question is how much the
airmass can recover from the stable airmass in place across the
region after the passage of the outflow boundary today. Euro and NAM
3KM models are indicating at least some modest recovery for coastal
counties during the middle part of the night, with SBCAPES for those
areas ranging from around 600 J/KG to near 1200 J/KG right along the
immediate coast by around 06Z-09Z Monday. Most of the other
mesoscale models however, show less of a recovery and keep any
significant CAPE offshore. As mentioned earlier, most 12z model
guidance agrees in the development of another round of showers and
thunderstorms tonight along the nearly stationary frontal boundary
that will be stretched across the region. These storms will track
eastward in vicinity of the boundary and move across the region,
mainly between around 06Z-09Z Monday until sometime mid morning
Monday. While the overall severe threat appears low, there is a
marginal risk of locally gusty/damaging winds with some of the
stronger storms. Mid level lapse rates are not exceptionally steep,
but models suggest just enough favorable effective shear for a few
strong to briefly severe storms should instability rebound
sufficiently. Somewhat of a low confidence forecast in this regard,
however. Lows tonight expected to range from the mid/upper 50s
northwest zones to the upper 60s coastal and southwest zones. Highs
on Monday primarily in the low to mid 70s. 12/DS


.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...The cold
front will move offshore and stall Monday night. Some slightly
drier air will filter into northern portions of the area on
Tuesday. The drier air along with lingering cloud cover will keep
highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 70s. The boundary moves
northward as a warm front Tuesday night, bringing increasing
moisture and rain chances back into the area. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms along with warmer temps can be expected
on Wednesday as the warm front lifts well north of the region. /13


.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...A fast moving shortwave
will send another cold front toward the area on Thursday. This
front is expected to quickly move across the area and be east of
the area by early afternoon. Weak forcing along the front along
with the fast forward motion will keep rainfall amounts fairly
light. A much cooler and drier airmass is expected to move in
behind this front for late in the week into the weekend. This will
return temps back to near where they should be this time of year.
Highs on Friday are expected to be in the mid and upper 60s
inland to to around 70 near the coast. Highs in the lower 70s for
Saturday and Sunday with lows in the 40s inland to low 50s along
the coast. /13

&&

.MARINE...A front will stall near or just inland from the coast
tonight with a light to moderate onshore flow. The front will move
south of the coast on Monday, with a more westerly light to moderate
flow developing. By late Tuesday into Wednesday, the front will
lift back north, with winds shifting back to a more southeast to
south direction and continuing to bring an unsettled weather pattern
to the marine area. Wednesday night into Thursday a stronger onshore
flow develops as another front approaches the marine area from the
northwest. This front is expected to move east across the coastal
waters late Thursday, with a moderate to strong offshore flow
developing Thursday night into Friday. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      65  74  57  75  64  79  67  76 /  80  70  10  20  30  30  20  40
Pensacola   68  75  60  72  65  76  69  77 /  60  70  10  20  20  30  20  40
Destin      68  73  61  70  65  74  69  76 /  50  70  10  20  20  20  20  40
Evergreen   63  74  53  74  60  80  65  76 /  80  80  10  20  30  40  20  50
Waynesboro  57  70  50  73  61  79  63  71 /  90  40  10  20  40  30  30  50
Camden      58  71  51  72  60  79  64  75 /  90  60  10  10  40  40  20  50
Crestview   66  76  57  74  61  78  66  79 /  60  80  10  20  20  30  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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