Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 252045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
245 PM MDT Mon Jul 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms return to the forecast this afternoon
with a shortwave expected to pass through the region. There is
model agreement for thunderstorms to develop along the
Continental Divide and specifically near Butte this afternoon,
but most of north central Idaho and western Montana will be storm
free and warmer today.

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is likely to increase on Tuesday
with the passage of a more defined shortwave. Northwest Montana,
particularly along the MT/Canadian border, is forecast to have
the best ingredients for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
There will also again be thunderstorm chances along the divide and
mainly east of the ID/MT border. Overall there has been little
change to the forecast through Tuesday night.

Forecast models continue to show yet another shortwave moving
through the flow during the day on Wednesday. Again, with this
feature, the locations most likely to see afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will be northwest Montana and along the Continental
Divide. These thunderstorms will be your garden variety storms,
with lightning and brief heavy rain being the greatest impact.

High temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will primarily run
around normal. Though by the end of the week, forecast models are
hinting at a brief ridge building, that would allow for
temperatures to really increase to 5-10 degrees above normal by
Friday and/or Saturday. However, this greatly depends on how fast
an approaching low pressure system currently over Alaska moves
into the Pacific NW. This low pressure system could keep the
Northern Rockies from really feeling the heat this coming weekend.


.AVIATION... The first half of today will be characterized by
clear skies and light winds. A shortwave currently passing through
Washington is forecast to move into north central Idaho and
western Montana this afternoon. High based cumulus clouds will
build over the terrain and a few thunderstorms are forecast to
develop along the divide, mainly near Butte.



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