Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 282056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
256 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...Cool, breezy & showery Monday with high mountain snow

...Quick warm-up expected later in the week...

.DISCUSSION...Cool, mostly cloudy conditions will persist into
this evening with the occasional sprinkle possible as a few weak
showers drift off the terrain. Low temperatures will again take a
dip tonight, and could present a localized frost threat for some
valleys on Sunday morning.

An approaching upper level trough of low pressure will bring some
breeziness Sunday afternoon, along with a much better chance for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The stronger storms may
produce some brief moderate rain and occasional lightning
strikes. The showers will weaken some after sunset, but only to
increase again overnight as the main storm system drops out of
Canada and crosses NW Montana. And while widespread high mountain
snow is not anticipated, heavier precipitation along the Divide,
and especially in Glacier National Park, may couple with colder
air aloft to drag the snow level down to around 7000ft by Monday
morning. As a result, a few inches of snow on the higher peaks
may be possible! Residual showers will linger on the back side of
the exiting storm system throughout the day with temperatures
remaining quite cool for late May.

However this looks to be the end of our prolonged cool and wet
trend as all models support a quickly developing, high amplitude
ridge of high pressure. Temperatures will quickly rise back to
normal on Tuesday, and then quickly warm another 10 degrees above
normal by Wednesday...But it doesn`t look like we`ll stop there!
Some models suggest that we might hit our first 90 degree day as
early as Friday, and then keep temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal through next weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge by late
this week will begin to weaken, allowing some moisture to pass
through it and ultimately the possibility of some afternoon

Bottom line: It`s going to start feeling a lot like summer late next
week! So it would be good to start thinking about those things you
might wish to do in order to be ready for a rather quick warm up
to summertime conditions!


.AVIATION...Minimal impacts are anticipated through the rest of
today. However the threat for showers and breezy winds begins to
increase after 29/1800z and will continue overnight. Fairly
widespread CBs are likely with the occasional thunderstorm near
terminals present a cloud-to-ground lightning threat through the
afternoon and into the evening.



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