Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 220940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
340 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...Other than a few showers along the Continental
Divide this afternoon, the remainder of the region will be warmer
than normal by as much as 10 degrees with partly to mostly sunny
skies. Tuesday will be an even warmer day as temperatures rise
well into the 70s and 80s, generally 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. With all the warmth, increased snowmelt will cause rivers
to rise again but flooding is not anticipated at this time.

A strong cold front is expected to move through central
Idaho and northwest Montana early Wednesday morning, then into
southwest Montana and Lemhi County by mid day Wednesday. Breezy to
windy conditions are expected to develop with the front, with
some areas potentially seeing wind gusts up to 45 mph. The
strongest winds are expected to occur across southwest Montana and
in Lemhi County, where passage of the front will correspond
better with afternoon mixing/instability. High profile vehicles
may have some difficulty, along with boaters on area lakes. This
is especially true for Flathead Lake where increased wave activity
will make for choppy conditions.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop with and behind the
cold front, mainly across northwest Montana. The rest of central
Idaho and west-central/southwest Montana will see too much dry
air aloft to warrant any precipitation. Cooler and showery
conditions with a few thunderstorms are expected for Thursday and
Friday as a low pressure trough remains over the region.

Saturday will be a transition day with temperatures beginning to
moderate back towards normal. Showers and a few thunderstorms will
be possible, especially across southwest Montana and Lemhi
County. Sunday will be warmer as an upper level ridge will start
to build into the region. The GFS model brings a disturbance
through the ridge which could mean scattered showers and
thunderstorms, but confidence is low with that happening,
especially as other model guidance are pointing to more of a drier


.AVIATION...A weak front will brush the Continental Divide today
bringing a chance for showers there. Most terminals will see VFR
conditions with light and local wind regimes expected through



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