Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 230914

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
314 AM MDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...The area has transitioned to a much colder air mass
for today, however it remains unstable. As a result rain and snow
showers are expected again today. Due to the warm ground and
strength of the late April sun, no accumulation is expected except
in the mountains today. A few lightning strikes are possible with
deeper convection, but not expected since the freezing level is so
low and surface temperatures are so cold. The biggest impact
from the showers will probably be winds. With 20-25 mph winds in
the area, any additional winds from showers may enhance them
causing gusts near 40 mph. The situation will be similar Thursday,
though winds will be lesser than today.

Thursday Night through Sunday...A moist and unstable atmosphere
will persist through the weekend as a large-scale trough of low
pressure slowly migrates through the western states. The air mass
will be cool enough for additional snow in the mountains, while
valley locations will precipitation fall as rain.

Monday through Tuesday...Medium range models continue to show a
ridge of high pressure developing over the inter-mountain west.
Forecast confidence is growing for prospects of a warmer, dry
period for early next week.


.AVIATION...Showers continue today, with snow showers causing
frequent mountain obscurations. With decent northwesterly flow
aloft and good instability due to the late April sun and a cold
air mass, expect a lot of quick moving showers and constantly
changing conditions, especially at KMSO and KBTM.


MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region.



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