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000
FXUS63 KOAX 062336
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
536 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW IN OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
ISSUES.

PLENTY OF SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING TO ABOUT 750MB
PROVIDING DRY AIR AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE HAVE PUSHED
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S OVER A GOOD PART OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING THIS EVENING...SHARP INVERSION WILL SET UP
ALLOWING FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REBOUND AND WINDS TO DROP.
HOWEVER SOME WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD HOLD LOWS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING MUCH OF THE CWA. THEN A GLANCING BLOW BY A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING...AGAIN
KICKING OFF LOW LEVEL MIXING UP TO THE 800MB LEVEL. TEMPS BY
AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY REACH THE 50S MOST AREAS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 60S LIKE TODAY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST THIS WAVE WILL GRAZE NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND PERHAPS WEST CENTRAL IOWA WITH SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SATURATED MID LEVELS AND
QUICK SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION INDUCED LIFT COULD WRING OUT SOME
PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEP NOSE OF WARM AIR OFF THE SURFACE
AND SURFACE TEMPS CLOSE TO FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. THUS RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH
WARM NOSE COULD PRODUCE A SNOW/SLEET SOUNDING AS WELL. GIVEN SMALL
CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE...WILL OFFER ONLY A RAIN/SNOW CHANCE AT THIS
POINT.

ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY RELATIVELY QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH WEAK NORTH WINDS TO FOLLOW AND A BIT COOLER AIR. BUT STILL
LOOKING FOR HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER 50S. THEN A RETURN
TO MILDER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS SLATED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN 850
TEMPS GAIN ABOUT 4C. BEST WARMING SHOULD OCCUR IN CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE 60S WILL RULE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MILD AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONGER TERM
PERIOD AS WELL. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AT LEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE PLAINS. PREDOMINANT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL AVERAGE THE 60S THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT
DRIFTING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY COULD COOL THINGS DOWN BACK INTO
THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 529 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRISK WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY AT 10-15KTS AND GUSTY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY