Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 240429
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1129 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Pocket of warmer air was located across the central plains this
afternoon with a warm front over the northern plains near the
South Dakota North Dakota border. Significantly colder north of
the warm front with temperatures in the 30s at 18z across North
Dakota.

This colder air is forecast to begin to spread south on Monday
behind a cold front which models bring into eastern Nebraska by
late afternoon before stalling out across the area through Monday
night. Better forcing and moisture look to remain mainly north of
the area on Monday as the front approaches but some sprinkles here
and there not out of the question late Monday afternoon into the
evening. A better chance of showers moves into the area late
Monday night and becomes likely on Tuesday and Tuesday night as
the stalled frontal boundary begins to become more active and push
southeast into Kansas and Missouri with overrunning pattern
developing north of the front as strong upper trough approaches
the central plains. Parts of northeast Nebraska could see a mix of
rain and snow for a time late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning
before ending.

Temperatures will be turning colder behind the front on Tuesday
with north winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Northern
parts of the area are expected to remain in the 40s on Tuesday and
again Wednesday. The clouds and rain will hinder any freezing
temperatures or frost Wednesday morning but pockets of freezing
temperatures are possible Thursday morning in northern and western
parts of the forecast area as clouds decrease and winds become
light.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Pattern looks to remain cool and wet through much of the period
beyond Wednesday night as a series of upper troughs track across
the central plains. Most significant system currently indicated by
models will impact much of the region over the weekend with
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some potential for snow is
also indicated for parts of the western high plains region during
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Surface winds have slowly diminished since this evening owing to
the gradual decoupling of the boundary layer. At the same time, a
nocturnal low-level jet has strengthened with plan-view VWP data
indicating 50+ kt south-southwest winds in the 1000-1500 m AGL
layer across the central Plains. As a result, LLWS is expected to
persist overnight at all three TAF sites.

By mid morning on Monday, a deepening boundary layer will once
again yield gusty south winds through the day. A cold front will
move into the area from the north and northwest Monday evening
with winds shifting to northwest at KOFK during that time frame.
The front will eventually move through KOMA and KLNK later Monday
night. Expect VFR conditions to prevail with persistent high-level
cloudiness.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead



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