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000
FXUS63 KOAX 090524
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK AND KOFK. SMALL AREA OF MVFR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS JUST MOVING OVER KOFK COULD MAKE IT TO KOMA
BY 08-10Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY
21Z AND BEYOND.

DEWALD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ENDING...THEN COLD TEMPERATURES/BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT.

THROUGH NOON...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY VARIED FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES.
 1.4 INCHES AT OMAHA...1.8 AT NORFOLK...2.3 AT THE VALLEY NWS...2.5
INCHES IN GRETNA...AND 5.7 INCHES IN LINCOLN.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW HAD SHIFTED INTO CENTRAL IOWA...HOWEVER
FLUFFY SNOW AND FLURRIES CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AT 3PM AND ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW WAS NOTED ON THE WSR-88D
MOSAIC IN SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA NEBRASKA LIFTING
NORTHEAST. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DROPPING DOWN TO A MILE OR TWO
WITH THE ENHANCED BANDS.

BY 00Z THIS EVENING...THE H3 JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 140KTS TO 160KTS...MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA THROUGH 06Z. THE MODEL TRENDS TRY TO WEAKEN
THIS PRECIPITATION AREA AS IT MOVES INTO OUR LOCAL AREA...BUT
THINK SOME AREAS COULD PICK UP SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH AS IT MOVES EAST THIS EVENING. WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE FLUFFY SNOW AND
FLURRIES...THEN CLEARING LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WARMED INTO THE TEENS TODAY AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWEST BY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AND CLOUDS DECREASE. THE
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME BLOWING OF SNOW OVER
THE ROADS DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW. WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EVENING AND SOME BLOWING OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT...DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE
TO THE NEW SNOW AND VARIABLE WINDS. GENERALLY WENT BELOW GUIDANCE
AT ALL SITES AND TEMPERATURES COULD RISE WITH THE INCREASE IN
WINDS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD TEMPERATURES AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20 BELOW RANGE FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND
EXPANDED IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD LINCOLN...PLATTSMOUTH...AND OAKLAND
IOWA.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE TEENS. THE SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
LOCALLY. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT IS A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH SOME DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND
SATURATION/LIFT COINCIDENT WITH DENDRITIC TEMPERATURES. DO HAVE
SOME HIGHER POPS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
INITIALLY A COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA TO START THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
ALLOW FOR EVENING LOWS IN THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA FOLLOWED BY STEADY
OR WARMING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THU THROUGH FRI. THE MODELS
THEN DIVERGE A BIT IN SOLUTIONS AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF A TOUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY NEXT WEEKEND AND HOW
FAR NORTH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TOWARD THE FA. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SRN CWA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS
THIS APPEARS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIME ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP. COLDER
AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FA FOR SAT/SUN THOUGH BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM.

AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOMA...KLNK...AND KOFK.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES AT ALL SITES...BUT VIS AND
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
KOMA MAY HOLD ON TO SNOW UNTIL AT LEAST AROUND 00Z...BUT OTHER
SITES SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES BEFORE THEN. OVERNIGHT...CEILINGS
SHOULD DECREASE...WHILE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE ONLY BROUGHT WINDS ABOVE 12KT AT KOFK...WITH KOMA/KLNK AT
AROUND 10KT...AND WINDS SHOULD BEING TO DECREASE BY AROUND 18Z
MONDAY.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>067.

IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
     056-069.

&&

$$