Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 132318
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES DIVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND WARMING TEMPERATURES...ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

STEEPENING NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS SHORTWAVES ROLLING THROUGH THAT FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES. EACH OF THOSE
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PLAINS...BUT
TRACKS OF BOTH LOOK TO FAVOR AREAS TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOR
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS.

TONIGHTS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
SYSTEM...AND ALONG WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT FROM THE TEENS OR LOWER 20S TO THE 25 TO 30
DEGREE RANGE BY SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION-WISE...ALREADY SEEING SOME
MID LEVEL REFLECTIVITIES SHOWING UP ON AREA RADARS AS WING OF MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BEGINS. EXPECT THAT AREA TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHEN LAYERED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED. THAT SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY 12Z...TAKING BULK OF
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. SO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS...BUT STILL SHOULD TOTAL JUST AN INCH
OR SO THERE.

BEHIND SHORTWAVE...MODEST MIXING REGIME WILL SET UP AS NORTHWEST
WINDS DOMINATE AND SOME DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. SHOULD
SEE SOME 40S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 30S HOLDING
IN THE NORTHEAST. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL REMAIN INTO
MONDAY BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. THUS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD AS COMPARED TO
RECENT TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS WARMER IN THE SOUTH WHERE NO
SNOWCOVER EXISTS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS KICK IN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR SCENARIO IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
TRACK FOCUSING BEST PRECIP CHANCES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER A
BETTER INITIAL MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTS A BROADER AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT WHEN WARM ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. HAVE FAIRLY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THEN...WITH AREA SHIFTING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE WITH MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURE PROFILE THAN TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA. WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR RAIN OR
SNOW MOST AREAS UNTIL FINER DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT. AND WITH
THE POTENTIAL MIX EXPECTED...AND RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE MINIMAL.

NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND SHORTWAVE AGAIN
OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING WITH NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION NOTED. THUS HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...WITH 30S IN THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE FORECAST.

NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY MODEST RIDGING BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN
TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GRADUALLY WARMING 850
TEMPERATURES FROM SUB ZERO TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO THE MID TEENS
THURSDAY EVENING DEMONSTRATE THE MAGNITUDE OF BACKGROUND
WARMING...SUGGESTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S LOOK ON TRACK
BY THEN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP AS WELL.

BY FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
A TROUGH/COOL FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AND ONLY BRIEF COOLING IS FORECAST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WARM ADVECTION AGAIN KICKS IN FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AT KOFK 07-11Z AND 09-13Z AT
KOMA. SOUTHEAST WINDS GREATER THAN 12 KNOTS INITIALLY...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22 TO 28 KNOTS...EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHWEST THROUGH TIME.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT BOTH KOFK/KOMA MAYBE UP TO ONE HALF INCH.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD


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