Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UNSETTLED/ACTIVE AND COOLER WEATHER IS UPON US. SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN
UT...WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE GREAT LAKES.  TOP OF
THE RIDGE WAS FLATTENING A BIT...WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 60M
IN MT.  UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK UP TO 115KT HAD SHIFTED
EASTWARD...DIVING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO IA. RIDGE AXIS AT 850MB
EXTENDED FROM EASTERN OK/EASTERN KS THROUGH THE IA/NE BORDER AND
EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH ABUNDANT 8C+ MOISTURE ACROSS MHCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO/MS RIVER VALLEYS.  SURFACE HIGH AT 07Z HAD
SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH LOW
CENTERED IN SOUTHWESTERN NEB.  A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEB INTO MO...WITH SCATTERED
POCKETS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE IN THE DAKOTAS/NEB.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED WITH
AN 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WITH INCREASING 850MB FLOW IMPINGING
ON THAT BOUNDARY.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO FESTER
TODAY...BUT ALSO SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AS 850MB WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER.  WOULD EXPECT SOMETHING OF A LULL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
THAT ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BEFORE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
DROPS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND DRAGS A BROADER
SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-MO
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT.  IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN ON FRIDAY...PUSHING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY AND LEAVING A DRY INDEPENDENCE DAY ON SATURDAY.  WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS EASTERLY SURFACE
WIND COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 80S IN
TIME FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THOUGH ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES THE FLOW A LITTLE
MURKY...PRESENCE OF SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND RISING 500MB
HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP WEATHER QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY.  UPPER=LEVEL RIDGE
IS PROGGED TO COLLAPSE AROUND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US AND
DRAGGING A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL US.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THAT
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS THE BOUNDARY BECOMES EAST-WEST ORIENTED AND STALLS
SOMEWHERE NEAR KS/MO.  FRONT SHOULD BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES AFTER A MODERATING TREND SUNDAY/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD MISS THE TAF SITES FOR
THE MOST PART. A STRONGER PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DID ADD A PROB30 GROUP TO ALL TAF
SITEST TO COVER ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...KERN


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