Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 231230
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
730 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS PROGRESSION AND OVERALL TIMING OF
ONGOING PRECIPITATION.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW RAIN IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA. THUS FAR RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING IT
TO THE GROUND GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. LATEST METARS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 10-12 KFT
AHEAD OF THE RAIN. AT THIS POINT ANY LIGHTNING...AND STRONGER
RADAR RETURNS...ARE FOCUSED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL JET MAX IS ENHANCING RAIN
DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR VALUES AND DEEPER LAYER FORCING IS OVERALL
UNIMPRESSIVE THUS NOT EXPECTING THESE STORMS TO GET MUCH MORE
INTERESTING. EXPECT SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF EASTERN WYOMING. AS THIS FEATURE LINGERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS WILL BE IN
NO HURRY TO MOVE OUT. AS A RESULT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END
ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY EARLY EVENING ON WEDNESDAY WITH
OFF AND ON SHOWERS UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE BEGIN TO SEE A LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO A BROAD TROUGH. WHILE LONG TERM GUIDANCE IS
ROUGH ON THE DETAILS...THE OVERALL PATTERN HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS FOR A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. UNTIL THEN...EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT KOFK THROUGH 19Z. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS
KLNK AND KOMA BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 19Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE RAIN. AFTER A BRIEF
LULL IN THE AFTERNOON...MORE RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 24/01Z AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PEARSON
LONG TERM...PEARSON
AVIATION...SMITH



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