Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 111046
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
246 AM PST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WEAKER VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT MIXING TODAY AND
FRIDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BE
VARIABLE CLOUDINESS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AS WELL AS IMPROVED
MIXING ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. THE WAVE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES
INLAND ACROSS NEVADA, SO REMOVED THE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHERN LASSEN/WASHOE COUNTIES FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL A BIT ON SATURDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELW

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEAK RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE PATTERN IS NOT OVERLY AMPLIFIED WITH JET ENERGY
AND MOISTURE REACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THIS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF CLOUDS TO THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, BUT THE
MOISTURE AND FORCING IS TOO FAR NORTH FOR ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY PEAK TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE AND IMPROVE MIXING.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SHOWING A
COLDER AND WET TROUGH REACHING THE WEST COAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS THE QUESTION OF HOW THIS TROUGH MAY OR MAY NOT PHASE
WITH A REMNANT CLOSE LOW AROUND 20N/130W AS IT MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. THIS COULD IMPACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE, LEAVING CONFIDENCE LOWER IN THESE DETAILS. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH, WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN MESSAGE IS BE PREPARED FOR COLDER AND WET CONDITIONS
RETURNING THE MIDDLE OR END OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST
NEVADA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SURFACE AND ALOFT.

A DRIER AIR MASS ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED-BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL MITIGATE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ONLY A 25% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY FZFG THROUGH THE MARTIS VALLEY AND KTRK THIS MORNING. DJ


&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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