Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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361
FXUS65 KREV 262038
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
138 PM PDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Friday through
Sunday with most near and south of Highway 50. A warming trend is
expected into the holiday weekend. Dry conditions return next week
with above average temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The strong cap from this morning`s sounding remains and is keeping
any vertical development limited. In fact, depth of cumulus have
shrunk the last couple hours looking out the window. Models show
this cap holding into the evening so removed the mention of
showers this evening from the Sierra. At best there will be a few
sprinkles.

Cooling aloft into Saturday along with a warming trend to near
average at the surface will increase the instability. Showers and
thunderstorms are likely to return Friday and continue into
Sunday for the southern half of the area. Weak flow aloft will
also promote a little more convergence over the mountains so kept
the mention for the next couple days. The day with the best
coverage looks to be Saturday south of I-80 due to the coldest
temps aloft and light flow favoring terrain convergence.

Memorial Day, temps aloft warm significantly to near -10C while
warming is slower closer to the surface. Another capping inversion
is likely in the mid-levels so kept the forecast dry. Tuesday
looks dry as well as surface temps slowly warm. The models then
diverge a bit Wed/Thur with the GFS showing and incoming trough
with wind while the EC builds a strong ridge over Nevada. The GFS
is drier, cooler, breezier while the EC suggests some convection
Wed/Thur with highs into the 90s and 90s. The EC solution is
fairly new, but the GFS is also a bit of an outlier as the
ensembles are more in between. Will keep a warm, dry forecast with
just a little more wind late week. Wallmann

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-BKN cloud cover over terminals with most CIGS 5-7000 feet.
Clearing skies overnight. Winds will remain light into Friday,
although when they do blow it will be a bit more from the north.
As far as convection, the potential is there Friday south of
Highway 50, but isolated after 20Z. A better chance for
showers/storms Saturday for most terminals. Wallmann

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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