Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 262024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
124 PM PDT Tue Sep 26 2017


Periods of high clouds and light valley winds are expected through
the week. Gusty east winds are possible near the ridge lines again
tonight. A ridge of high pressure along the west coast is gradually
getting stronger leading to a slow warming trend. A series of
short waves could bring a few showers to the Oregon border early
next week.



Few changes were made to the short term part of the forecast as a
ridge remains to the west with a trough well to the east. In the
base of the trough is a quasi-closed low. Between the two... gusty
easterly ridge winds are expected again tonight...especially over
the Sierra and Carson Range. By Wednesday the ridge begins to
shift east as the trough weakens and moves away. This will result
in less wind at the ridges and slow warming trend. We should see
highs and lows closer to average by Thursday/Friday.

Model guidance is in fairly good agreement through Saturday. A
short wave pushes into the Pac NW late Friday. This wave is a
little farther south than previous guidance has shown. This puts
the southern edge closer to our area. While little in the way of
precipitation is expected...we should see increased low to mid
level winds from the west-southwest late Friday. The stronger
winds will be north of I-80.

This wave rapidly sweeps by the region Saturday. The GFS then
tries to rebuild a ridge over the region while the ECMWF has
mainly zonal flow Sunday.

Those trends continue into the early part of next week. The GFS
builds a ridge with the axis sliding just to our east. Meanwhile...
the ECMWF brings another trough...this one stronger and farther
south...into the northern part of the forecast area. The ECMWF
produces cooler temperatures along with showers as far south as
the Tahoe basin Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is showing
support for both solutions...but favors the trough a bit more. We
already had some slight chance pops in for Monday...but nothing
for Tuesday. Given the disagreement between the model solutions it
does not seem appropriate to alter the forecast much at this
time. We will stick with slight chances Monday and nothing
Tuesday. Since this is normally a transition time of year...the
models may continue to struggle with these solutions for a few
more days.



VFR conditions continue through much of the week with relatively
light winds in the valleys. The only exception might be patchy fog
in the Martis and Sierra Valleys as we move through the week. That
could bring brief periods of MVFR or less visibility to KTRK each
morning starting Thursday.

Ridge winds will be gusty from the east again tonight...maybe
reaching 30-35 kt. This would produce turbulence along and
downwind of the ridges. By Thursday the winds aloft will begin to
shift more to the west-southwest and strengthen into Friday.


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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