Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 272241
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
241 PM PST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS LIGHT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WE STARTED SEEING
STEADY LIGHT RAIN IN WESTERN NEVADA AS EARLY AS 4AM THIS MORNING
WHICH THEN SPREAD NORTHWEST TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR AND TAHOE
BASIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND THE FALLON AREA AS WELL AS IN THE CARSON
RANGE WITH PRECIP TOTALS AROUND 0.25-0.30". OTHERWISE, PRECIP
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY MEAGER AT LESS THAN 0.10". AROUND LAKE
TAHOE AND DOWN INTO MONO COUNTY ABOVE 6500-7000 FEET, LIGHT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 INCHES WERE OBSERVED WITH ICY ROAD CONDITIONS
REPORTED BETWEEN MOUNT ROSE SUMMIT AND INCLINE VILLAGE. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO EASTERN NEVADA TONIGHT, THIS WILL SHIFT THE
DEFORMATION ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST AS WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA VALLEYS, DUE TO ABUNDANT CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH,
IF WE CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE COULD SEE FOG BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

REGARDING DROUGHT IMPACTS, THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
VIRTUALLY NO EFFECT ON THE AREA`S LONG TERM DROUGHT. PUTTING THIS IN
PERSPECTIVE, IT`S ONLY A DROP IN A BUCKET COMPARED TO THE DEFICIT WE
HAVE FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. THIS RAIN DID, HOWEVER, PUSH
JANUARY 2015 UP TO TIE FOR THE 7TH DRIEST JANUARY ON RECORD FOR THE
RENO-TAHOE AIRPORT (AS OPPOSED BEING TIED FOR THE DRIEST ON RECORD
BEFORE TODAY!). THE 0.06" OF RAIN THE AIRPORT OBSERVED TODAY IS THE
ONLY MEASURABLE PRECIP WE`VE GOTTEN THIS MONTH.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER CA/NV ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN. A BAGGY TROUGH
MOVES ONSHORE THURSDAY WITH MEAGER MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP FROM
SOUTHERN CA/NV. WE LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 50 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THIS WEAK TROUGH
TRANSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BY FRIDAY, THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONSOLIDATES
AND TIGHTENS UP, THIS SHOULD TAKE CLOUDS AND PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN
NEVADA, LEAVING CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN
CA/NV. HOON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

GREATEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOIST FLOW
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES
PRECIPITATION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 80. OTHERWISE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED.

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY PUSHING THE CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH INTO
BAJA/NORTHERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WITH SIERRA RIDGE GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 TO 80 MPH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING BY SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY
IT WILL HELP KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO MID 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS WITH 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHES THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CA/NV
NORTHWARD. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION WILL
REACH IS LOW AT THIS POINT WITH ENSEMBLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUMES
AS FAR NORTH AS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF A SOUTH LAKE TAHOE-GERLACH LINE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND SNOW LEVELS
FAIRLY HIGH BEING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE JET. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SIERRA AND NORTHERN NEVADA BRINGING PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VIS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN AT ALL
TERMINALS, BUT ICING IS A CONCERN ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS THE REGION.

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE ONLY
SURFACING IN SOME LOCATIONS, LIKELY RELATED TO WHERE SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS
IN WESTERN NEVADA.

FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS, BUT IF
CLEARING OCCURS BY MORNING, FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED VALLEYS,
INCLUDING AT KTRK. CHANCES ARE ABOUT 15 PERCENT. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)













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