Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 291019
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
219 AM PST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOWFALL
IS POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BITTER COLD WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND NEGATIVE VALUES HEADING INTO THE
NEW YEAR. A MILDER PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACTS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL ALONG A
LAKEVIEW TO ELY LINE THIS MORNING AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TODAY. IT WILL ACCELERATE OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ALL
OF WESTERN NEVADA AND THE EASTERN SIERRA TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAY, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GOOD MIXING. IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT, THERE IS ENOUGH FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND IT
DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE. THE BEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE
SIERRA FRONT INTO NORTHERN MONO COUNTY, TYPICAL OF INSIDE SLIDERS.

ON TUESDAY, AS THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHEAST, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
UPPER LOW FOR CONTINUED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE 395
CORRIDOR FROM DOYLE SOUTHWARD. UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE 395 CORRIDOR TUESDAY MORNING WHICH COULD CREATE ISSUES
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WEST OF 395. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S, BUT FEEL EVEN COLDER WITH THE BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND OUT OF WESTERN NEVADA
TUESDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH 700 MB WINDS TO 70 KTS AND A STRONG
SURFACE THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SIERRA. THIS WILL
FAVOR STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE RIDGES WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 100 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE RIDGES. WHILE THIS
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEAST WIND EVENT, IT IS NOTICEABLY
WEAKER THAN THE DEC 2011 EVENT, SO THINK ANY POTENTIAL WIND DAMAGE
WOULD BE VERY LIMITED.

COLD TEMPERATURES AND BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WINDS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR WHAT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON SO FAR ON NEW YEAR`S EVE. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MINOR CHANGES TO RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER LOW
WILL BE PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THU-FRI AS RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
WINDS AND RISING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMING WILL BE AT RIDGE LEVEL, A GRADUAL WARMUP WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SNOW COVER.

FOR THE WEEKEND, MOST MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGE
REMAINING IN PLACE WITH MAIN AXIS REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD
PROMOTE A WARMUP FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND MODERATE WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW NEAR RIDGE LEVEL. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED AND BRIEF TURBULENCE EAST OF THE SIERRA CREST.

OTHERWISE, ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE WORKING
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME SNOW MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. PROBABLY THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS NORTHEAST WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SIERRA. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 395/I-580 CORRIDOR WITH MT AND TERRAIN OBSCUREMENT
LIKELY IN LOW CIGS/VSBY. THE SNOW WILL BE POWDERY AND GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOWER VSBY
AT TIMES.

CURRENT PROJECTIONS BRING SNOW TO THE TAHOE AND SIERRA FRONT
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 08Z-20Z TUE, AND KMMH 16Z TUE-06Z WED. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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