Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 190912
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
212 AM PDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MONO
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED. WINDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD TROUGH WITH
20 TO 25 DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY AND CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
SNOW. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

REMNANT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
CLOUDS LINGERING. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY, WITH THE TAIL END JUST BRUSHING THROUGH
NORTHERN CA/NV. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 WHERE THE BEST GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON LAKE TAHOE AND
PYRAMID LAKE, THOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION
TODAY, BUT SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN MONO COUNTY ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERATED BY DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE WEST SUNDAY WITH A DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS RETURNING TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY, ENDING UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WINDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A DEEP, COLD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH WIND PRONE AREAS EASILY REACHING 50 TO 60
MPH. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO
NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SPREADING INTO EXTREME WESTERN MONDAY NIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND.
DJ

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FOR NEXT WEEK WITH TWO PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION. FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA TUESDAY WITH A SECOND AND POTENTIALLY STRONGER SYSTEM FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.

WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM, SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE AREA WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 7000 FEET WITH A LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SIERRA PASSES. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT BOATING CONDITIONS
ON TAHOE AND PYRAMID.

FOR MID WEEK, A ZONAL FLOW INTO THE WEST COAST WILL ALLOW A COUPLE
SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH OREGON WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS WELL
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN NEVADA WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE
SIERRA.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STRONGER SYSTEM REACHING THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY LAST MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND AS
BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AMERICA.  RIDGE ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE OF ROCKIES WILL LEAVE THE COLD LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC.  THE LOW WILL HELP DIRECT THE JET INTO CALIFORNIA WITH
WAVES OF PACIFIC MOISTURE REACHING THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.  APPEARS AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE JET WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS BELOW 7000 FEET.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL DURATION OF THE
EVENT, TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SIERRA
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. HIGH END TOTALS
FOR WESTERN NEVADA OF 0.50 TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SIERRA TODAY WITH 25KTS GUSTS
IN THE AFTERNOON. FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KTRK WHICH WILL BURN OFF
BY 16Z. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AFTER 20Z
ACROSS MONO COUNTY, WHICH MAY IMPACT KMMH.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY WITH STRONG
WINDS LIKELY OVER THE SIERRA.  THIS WILL LEAD TO MOUNTAIN WAVES WITH
SURFACE GUSTS TO 35-45 KTS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT THE
SIERRA TERMINALS. BRONG

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)










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