Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 292202
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, MAINLY FOR THE SIERRA AND IN FAR WESTERN NEVADA. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS ARE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA CREST,
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL TOO LIMITED TO SEE ANY THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

BY TOMORROW, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SIERRA. WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
DAY, MAINLY OVER THE SIERRA CREST OF MONO COUNTY. AN INVERTED
SHORTWAVE COMING IN FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT HELPING TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION GOING
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY, STORM COVERAGE SPREADS FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA
AND INTO WESTERN NEVADA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING, ALTHOUGH STILL MARGINAL OVERALL WITH HIGH-BASED CELLS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 0.60" WITH STORM MOTIONS AROUND
15KT FROM THE SOUTH, LEADING TO A MIX OF WET/DRY STORMS. RAINFALL
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MAIN STORM CORES WITH NEW LIGHTNING FIRES
POSSIBLE AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 50 MPH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 0.75". STORMS WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION TO WETTER STORMS WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AS WELL.
STORM COVERAGE ON SATURDAY WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING
WE HAVE FROM THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT RECENT
NAM/GFS RUNS LOOK LIKE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WE GET SOME CLEARING. HOON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING SOME
MID-LEVEL DRYING, WHICH MAY HELP WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. IF SKIES ARE CLEAR, IT WILL HELP WITH THE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ON SUNDAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST.

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LINGER ON MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP CHANCES
FOR STORMS IN THE FORECAST. A JET SEGMENT NOSES INTO THE SIERRA AND
NORTHWEST NEVADA ON MONDAY (GFS) OR TUESDAY (EC) WHICH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND THE SHEAR. IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES, THE
WIND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SHEAR THE STORM UPDRAFTS APART ON
MONDAY, LIMITING THE NUMBER OF STORMS, AND ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL BE QUICK MOVERS. THE EC SOLUTION WOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BY TUESDAY, FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF THE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES ALONG WITH
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK. DJ

&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
WITH CUMULUS BUILDUPS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF KMMH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MOVING NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING MUCH OF THE
SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. DJ

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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