Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 010934
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
234 AM PDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURES BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA. TEMPERATURES
START COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE
WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. OTHER THAN SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY AS A RELATIVELY BENIGN PERIOD OF
WEATHER BEGINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING APPROACHING FREEZING, THERE IS LITTLE TO DISCUSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE TYPICALLY
COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL APPROACH 28 DEGREES. COLDEST SIERRA LOCATIONS WILL DROP INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THOSE THAT HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS WITH SENSITIVITIES TO COLD TEMPERATURES. WESTERN
NEVADA LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED ARE: THE MASON AND SMITH
VALLEYS, AREAS AROUND FALLON AND LOVELOCK, AND VALLEYS EAST OF
FALLON INCLUDING GRASS VALLEY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
AROUND RENO AND CARSON CITY MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DROP TOWARDS 32F, BUT
THE DURATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY BRIEF.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S THIS
MORNING WARMING EACH DAY AS RIDGING MOVES OVER WESTERN NEVADA.
HIGHS WILL START COOL TODAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR WESTERN
NEVADA AND AROUND 60 IN THE SIERRA CLIMBING TO THE UPPER 70S/LOW
80S AND LOW/MID 70S RESPECTIVELY BY FRIDAY. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TODAY WITH FASTEST FLOW ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SIERRA AND TO THE WEST. GENERALLY, SIERRA LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE SIERRA WILL BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE EAST.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAINLY
RESPONDING TO TERTIARY FLOW FOLLOWING DIURNAL PATTERNS ALONG
TERRAIN FEATURES AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. BOYD

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER CA/NV WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT ABOVE-AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITH WRN NV VALLEYS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND SIERRA VALLEYS IN
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER, TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
EACH NIGHT.

FOR MON-TUE, MOST COMPUTER GUIDANCE ADVERTISES A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE COULD BRING WESTERLY
BREEZES AND COOLER AIR ACROSS THE SIERRA AND INTO WESTERN NV BY
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS LOW
BECAUSE OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND BECAUSE MODELS TEND TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WEAK UPPER LOWS. JCM

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE YESTERDAY BROUGHT A DRIER AIR MASS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV.  AS SUCH,
FOG WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING EVEN IN SIERRA VALLEYS, WITH
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR FOG AT KTRK. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE
FOR FOG IN SIERRA VALLEYS, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. JCM

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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