Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 290931
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
231 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL STORM MARIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
COOLER PACIFIC WATERS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS FROM
THE REMNANTS OF MARIE WILL STREAM ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SPREAD
INTO WESTERN NV TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM ADVECTION
AROUND 500 MB WITH THIS MOISTURE BUT WITH STABLE MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DRY LOW-LEVELS. AS SUCH, PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT VIRGA IS LIKELY AND SPRINKLES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. MOST OF THIS
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM MARIE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

REGARDING THE WIND FORECAST, THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING A SHORT WAVE
FROM THE WEST WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 MPH RANGE
FROM I-80 NORTHWARD, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS IN WIND PRONE
AREAS. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WILL DEVELOP BUT SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. WIND GUSTS ACROSS NEVADA
DESERTS WILL ALSO RAISE POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST, POSSIBLY LOWERING
VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES.

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WIND GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OUT OF OREGON AND A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED JET OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOSES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. DUE TO THESE
FACTORS THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND RIDGE GUSTS SHOULD ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER.
HOWEVER, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR VALLEY WIND GUSTS SATURDAY IS THAT A
MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD LIMITING THE MIXING OF STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. THE UPSHOT OF ALL THIS IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR AREA LAKES TO BECOME CHOPPY AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, AND THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT WINDS COULD
INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. JCM

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH OVERALL
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A
LITTLE EACH DAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. TYPICAL SUMMER WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AFTER WEDNESDAY, 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS A BLOCKING RIDGE TRIES TO FORM OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES AS
WELL. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING BUT REMAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY
ONWARD, AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT IN RECENT DAYS IN THE
CHANGING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THIS TROUGH PATTERN COULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AN INCREASE OF WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOON

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
THROUGH TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TAFS IS HIGH. WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN ISSUE. WINDS INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR RNO/CXP. SOME POCKETS OF BLDU
POSSIBLE NEAR CARSON SINK (LOL/NFL) AND BURNING MAN AIRFIELD. SCT
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY.

GUSTY WINDS AGAIN LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES BY, PERHAPS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN FRIDAY. A FEW AREAS OF
BLDU WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KLOL/KNFL AND BURNING
MAN. LIGHT WINDS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WORKS BACK
INTO THE REGION. CS/HOON

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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