Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 280939
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
239 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds and high temperatures a few degrees above average will
continue today. High pressure breaks down Monday and Tuesday for
increasing breezes, with cooler temperatures likely by late week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...

Dry and warm conditions are expected today with only a few
afternoon cumulus developing in Mono and Mineral Counties.
Southwest flow aloft will continue to allow haze from fires in
California to move into the region.

A short wave trough is expected to move through northern
California Monday night into Tuesday which will begin to cool
temperatures a bit, slowly increase afternoon winds, and allow
some moisture into the area. It`s possible areas near the Oregon
border could see some precipitation, possibly even some high based
convection, but forcing and upper level instability aren`t well
aligned at this point.

By Tuesday widespread gusts around 25 mph can be expected, and
depending on how the trough comes through, could be a bit
stronger. The combination of low humidities and gusty winds will
increase fire weather concerns during the day on Tuesday before
moisture begins to move into the area Tuesday night. -Zach

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...

The medium range models are evolving toward a solution in the long
term that is less aggressive than previous GFS solutions and more in
line with the solution the ECMWF has been trending toward over the
last 48 hours or so. Since we did not trend toward the outlier GFS
solution earlier...only minor forecast changes were needed this
cycle.

As stated...the models are trending toward a less amplified trough
for most of the extended period as the main portion of the trough
remains well north of the region in WA/OR. Thus temps were allowed
to drift up a bit each day through Friday and no pops of consequence
are in the forecast. Wind remains a question both Wednesday and
Thursday. Timing short waves in the flow this far out is difficult
at best...but there could be increased winds due to short wave
activity Wednesday afternoon/evening. This could raise fire weather
concerns. Winds for Thursday and Friday may be a bit lighter.

The medium range deterministic models and many of the ensemble
members have a sharper short wave carving the trough farther south
on Saturday. This could make Saturday the breeziest day of the
extended and allow temps to fall a few degrees. But...temps should
be no more than a few degrees below average. Saturday remains dry as
moisture return remains cut off.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue into the early part of the week at least.
Winds today should be fairly light through most of the day with a
slightly suppressed zephyr in the late afternoon. Stronger westerly
afternoon/evening winds are likely starting Monday as thermal
gradients begin to strengthen.

Haze will linger around the region through early in the week...the
remnants of smoke from fires in California. The haze in our region
should not be so thick as to lower visibility enough to cause
impacts to flight operations.

A short wave late Monday and early Tuesday could bring overnight
convection with gusty surface to areas north and west of a line from
Portola to Gerlach...but the likelihood of any convection is only
about 10%.

The bigger aviation impact could be blowing dust in areas down wind
of dry lake beds starting Tuesday and continuing into Wednesday.

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno


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