Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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117
FXUS64 KSHV 220346
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
946 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.UPDATE...
To add pop/wx over our E Texas counties and tweak sky into Wed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar is showing a pretty good little crop of popcorn showers
with a strong back door push now. Our 88D VAD wind profiler is
showing N/NE flow up to 6-7kft. The showers over Deep E TX are
moving quickly S/SW and will clear the area by around midnight.
Adjusted sky this evening and went overnight into tomorrow with
clearing skies to accompany this frontal push over the region.
Winds still look to pick up in the coming hours with wind working
down to sfc over AR and LA especially as we are calm or light N
at this time. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 555 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

AVIATION...
Dealing with a mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings this evening across our
airspace ahead of a cold front which will be moving southward into
our airspace overnight. As a result, drier air in the low levels
will eventually spread into our region overnight with much of the
cloud cover dissipating later this evening or after midnight. Look
for post frontal north winds near 10kts through the day Friday
with VFR conditions prevailing.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Short wave has pulled moisture a little further north and isold
showers have reached near I-20 although amounts that far north may
not be measurable with any wetting rains well south of cwa. Cold
front still north of cwa and may reach se Ok by 0z, and thru most
of I-20 corridor by 06z tonight. A few upper lvl clouds will
linger postfrontal with skies clearing out later tonight. North
winds may reach 15 mph but should remain below lwa criteria on
Wed. With wind speeds declining durg the aftn, expect full
radiation cooling wed night. Overnight lows will fall into the 30s
areawide with near to below frzg temps expected ne half of cwa.
some frost possible, depending on amount of higher thin clouds.
NAM drives the cold air wedge further into area with dewpoints
into the 20s on Thanksgiving day and more overnight lows remaining
in 30s Thu night.  Upper ridge building over Baja CA providing an
extended period of cool and dry wx in deep nw flow. Another cold
front arriving early Saturday with no precip expected. ECMWF
showing a stg short wave in north flow behind front which may pull
additional cold air into area which may result in gustier winds
and cooler overnight lows than in current fcst. Another cold front
arriving mid week at end of extended may yield at least a few
showers as area will have close to a couple days of southerly
flow in advance of fropa.

/07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  42  58  33  61 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  41  55  32  59 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  34  55  29  61 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  38  54  32  60 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  38  54  30  59 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  43  57  37  62 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  42  58  34  61 /  20   0   0   0
LFK  48  62  37  63 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13/07



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