National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 092131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
AS USUAL WITH POSSBLE WINTER WEATHER APPROACHING...SMALL CHANGES
IN THE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS CAN MAKE BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR
FORECAST. THE MODELS TODAY WEAKENED THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
SOME...AND MOVED IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...BUT NOT VERY MUCH IN EITHER CASE. THE TYPE OF WINTER
PRECIPTATION WE GET ON THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY
FRIDAY...WILL BE A MIXED BAG BECAUSE THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILE CHANGES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. AS
YOU MIGHT GUESS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA...IN SOUTH
ARKANSAS...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WILL
SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW FOR THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. LOUSIANA AND EAST TEXAS...WILL SEE A MIXED BAG OF
SLEET AND SNOW...AND SLUSHY RAIN...FALLING IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

ONE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWA...WHERE IT WILL ALSO BE THE
WARMEST. IN THE COLDER PARTS TO THE NORTH...THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE LIGHTER. THUS WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH BOTH TO THE
SOUTH...AND IN THE FAR NORTH. THESE AMOUNTS ARE A LITTLE LIGHTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...DUE TO THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE AND THE
TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN BEFORE. SINCE THE EVENT IS STILL
TWO DAYS AWAY...FURTHER CHANGES TO THE MODELS CAN OCCUR WHICH WILL
BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. NO ADVISORIES OR WATCHES AT THIS
TIME WILL BE ISSUED BECAUSE EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS ARE
TOO LIGHT FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH. BUT RESIDENTS OF THE FOUR
STATE AREA SHOULD KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.

LATER TOWARD THE WEEKEND...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN TO THE AREA...BUT THIS RAIN EVENT WON/T LAST VERY LONG. NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE FINALLY CLEARED...AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. NW WINDS
10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY WILL WEAKEN TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL THEN RETURN LATE IN THE PD...AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  29  46  30  40  30 /   0   0  30  60  70
MLU  28  46  30  42  31 /   0   0  10  40  60
DEQ  17  44  27  40  29 /   0   0  10  30  40
TXK  28  44  29  40  30 /   0   0  20  40  60
ELD  25  44  28  40  30 /   0   0  10  40  50
TYR  28  44  32  40  32 /   0  10  30  70  70
GGG  28  44  32  40  30 /   0  10  30  70  70
LFK  30  46  34  40  33 /   0  10  40  70  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/12