Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231725
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Cu field has been ahead of schedule forming south of the I-20
Corridor and slow to form along and north of the Corridor even
with the 2+ PWATs in place across nearly the entire airspace this
afternoon. 12z shortterm progs in good agreement with the latest
run of the HRRR that we should see increasing shower/tstm
development across areas near and to the south of the I-20
corridor by the 20z timeframe if not sooner. Further east towards
our MLU/ELD terminals, convection formed earlier this morning and
will continue to be possible through much of the remainder of the
day. For the 18z taf cycle, went with VCTS for all terminal
locations this aftn with tempo groups for most terminals in the
20-24z timeframe when coverage should be near its maximum with the
possibility of lower ceilings/vsbys with -tsra. These trends will
continue into the early evening hours before we begin looking
at convection moving north to south out of Central OK/Central AR
and into our terminal airspace late tonight through the morning
hours on Monday.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Convection is beginning to fire much earlier today compared to
yesterday at this time due to the combination of a weak shear
axis over the MS Delta region and the nearly stationary upper
level disturbance/remnant easterly wave to our south. Add to that
the 2 inch PWAT from our 12Z SHV sounding, and we have a favorable
environment for more scattered to possibly numerous convection
both today and again on Monday with little change in the current
features/pattern. For the morning update, have maintained the
current heat advisory for our far N/NW zones where cloud cover has
been quite limited thus far this morning whereas more extensive
cloud cover has been observed farther south and east across the
remainder of the region. Thus, have beefed up sky cover for today
and also trended pops higher across our far southern and eastern
zones where convection is already ongoing this morning. Otherwise,
the rest of the forecast appears to be in good shape but may need
to watch temperature forecast with more cloud cover farther south
and may need an additional update if trends favor a slower climb
in temperature readings by early afternoon. Will provide additional
updates if needed. New text products have already been issued.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  91  77  94 /  30  40  30  20
MLU  75  91  76  94 /  30  40  30  20
DEQ  73  92  74  94 /  40  40  30  20
TXK  75  91  75  94 /  30  40  30  20
ELD  74  90  75  93 /  30  40  30  20
TYR  75  92  76  94 /  30  40  30  10
GGG  75  91  76  94 /  30  40  30  20
LFK  76  93  75  95 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...None.
OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096.

&&

$$

19/13



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