Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 252140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
440 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER
THE EASTERN PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH A
TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO SOUTH TEXAS
SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE PERTUBATIONS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOF. THESE DISTURBANES ALONG WITH A DEEP AND RICH
SUPPLY OF UNSTABLE AIR FRESH OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND SPREADING OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...HIGH
AND DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND TORNADOES. MUCH OF THE AREA WEST
OF A TEXARKANA ARKANSAS TO SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA...AND NACOGDOCHES
TEXAS LINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER INTO THE NIGHT THE
AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPPER TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SWINGS EAST AS WELL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
TAPERING OFF WITH THE EXIT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...HOWEVER THE NEXT
IN A CONTINUED STREAM OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE CHANCES FOR
SHOERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE ENTIRE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A WEAKLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEE THESE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
KEEPING A WET PATTERN GOING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1217 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
TO LOWER THE CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...RAISE THE FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY...INCREASE THE WINDS.

DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUED TO SHOW UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF AN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PAN HANDLE OF TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THESE DISTURBANCES ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE SPREADING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING SHOWES AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OKLAHOMA...AND INTO
TEXAS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCES
AS THEY MOVE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SUN WAS OUT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL HELP PROVIDE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA THAT WILL PROVIDE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL COME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING. SOILS HAVE BEEN PRIMED WITH RECENT RAINS. FOR THE
REST OF TODAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY BE ALERT FOR HIGH WATER.
DO NOT CROSS FLOODED AREAS ESPECIALLY IF THE WATER IS MOVING
QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...

SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. CURRENT MVFR CEILING TO MIX OUT AND
DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR 18Z.

BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING NEAR 08Z...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS TO REDEVELOP IN MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. /VIII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  85  70  87 /  90  60  30  40
MLU  70  82  70  87 /  90  70  30  40
DEQ  66  81  68  84 /  90  50  40  40
TXK  68  84  69  86 /  90  50  30  40
ELD  70  83  70  86 /  90  70  30  40
TYR  68  84  71  86 /  90  40  30  30
GGG  69  85  70  87 /  90  40  30  30
LFK  70  86  71  88 /  90  40  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06


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