Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210310
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1010 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has finally ceased for the evening, with only a few
lucky areas getting some rain. Overnight, persistence seems to be
the winning strategy, with min temps bottoming out in the low to
mid 70s. That said, grids are in good shape, so no changes are
expected attm. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

AVIATION...
Currently tracking isolated convection south and east of the SHV
terminal and while we will not add any WX mention in the 00z
terminal package, a short term AMD may be necessary not only at
the SHV terminal but also the ELD and/or the MLU terminal if
convection can continue developing in the wake of an outflow
boundary which has just pushed north of the I-20 Corridor across
Northern Louisiana. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the evening hours.

Overnight, expecting IFR/MVFR conditions to redevelop for the
terminal locations along and south of the I-20 Corridor of
Northeast Texas into Northern Louisiana. Winds should stay up
enough to keep VSBYS from getting too far out of hand but did keep
some 3-5SM going in a few locations after midnight and through the
early morning hours on Thu. Otherwise, ceilings will continue to
climb through the day with afternoon and evening isolated
convection once again possible on Thu but too limited to warrant a
mention in this TAF package.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon an upper level low pressure system over Southwest
Arkansas with a trough axis of low pressure that trailed to the
Southwest across Louisiana and East and Southeast Texas. This
feature along with available gulf moisture has produce scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, but the activity has been sparse.
With loss of afternoon heating the convection will die off in the
early evening. For much of the rest of the week and into the
early part of the weekend, ridging aloft will extend from parts of
East Texas into the upper mid west between a long-wave trough of
low pressure over the western sections of the country with
tropical system off the Northeast States and off the Atlantic
Coast off Florida and the Carolinas. The current upper low over
the Four State Region will weaken and shift into the Gulf where it
forms into a closed low during the early weekend and expected to
retrograde. This low will ride under the ridge and will increase
the rain chances for the forecast area. pattern shift will be
coming early next week as a longwave trough digs across the
Western U.S. and then moves across the Northern Plains during the
middle of next week. The passage of this trough axis should help
to push a cold front into the region next week. This front should
provide a much better chance at widespread and organized
convection.

/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  72  92 /  10  20  10  10
MLU  72  91  72  92 /  10  20  10  20
DEQ  73  91  70  91 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  73  92  72  91 /   0  10  10  10
ELD  72  91  71  92 /   0  10  10  20
TYR  74  92  72  91 /   0  20  10  10
GGG  73  91  72  91 /   0  20  10  10
LFK  74  90  71  91 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/13/06


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