Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241740
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 24/18z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
areawide through the entire TAF period. Gusty northwest winds will
persist before quickly diminishing around sunset as the
atmosphere decouples, and the center of a surface ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. The ridge will move east by sunrise
Thursday morning leading to winds shifting to the south. Wind
speeds are expected to be between 7 and 12 kts during the daytime
hours of Thursday with higher gusts possible over Southeast
Oklahoma and East Texas.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows an impressive trough of low pressure
digging across the eastern half of the US this morning, with the
primary low digging over southwestern Missouri and a secondary low
lifting across western Tennessee. As a result, much drier and
cooler air is settling into the ArkLaTex this morning. Visible
satellite imagery shows predominately clear skies across the
region this morning. However, a cumulus field is beginning to
develop in the vicinity of the Oklahoma and Arkansas border,
which will likely continue to develop as well as spread southward
through the day as the upper level low digs southward. Did a
quick update this morning to reflect current satellite trends, but
otherwise, the forecast looks on track, with high temperatures
ranging some 10 to 15 degrees below normal today and gusty
northwest winds possible. Palmer

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/ Light rain
has just about moved east of our eastern most counties and
parishes across Southern Arkansas and Northeast Louisiana early
this morning. IR Imagery showing that the clearing line is along
the back edge of the rain shield with all of our region expected
to be nearly cloudy free by sunrise this morning. A strong west to
east pressure gradient is in place across our region in the wake
of the strong cold front that pushed through the region on
Tuesday. WSR-88D Wind Profiler showing near 30kts at around 3kft
so with sufficient diurnal mixing later this morning, we should
see sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. For this
reason, have hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory for our entire Four
State Region beginning at 15Z this morning through 00z this
evening with winds quickly decoupling afterwards. Vigorous
longwave trough centered early this morning across Northern
Missouri will continue its dive southward today and should be into
Northeast Arkansas/Western Tenn by 00z this evening. Wrap around
moisture near the 5kft level of the atmosphere should condense
into an expansive cu field today with our northeast zones likely
becoming mostly cloudy once again. Cannot rule out some widely
scattered showers where the moisture will be a little deeper in
association with this upper low but feel like this should stay
just north and east of our region today.

The trough quickly turns eastward into the Mid Tenn/Ohio Valley
overnight tonight and the cloud cover should mix out this evening.
Winds will decouple quickly this evening as a strong ridge of high
pressure at the surface moves our way from the Southern Plains.
This ridge axis is a quick mover with southeast winds likely
returning to our western most zones by sunrise Thu morning. This
may upset ideal radiational cooling conditions across our western
most zones somewhat tonight but the remainder of the region should
have no problem falling into the 40s and 50s overnight. Coolest
temperatures will likely be across our usual spots across Southern
and Southwest Arkansas as well as North Central and Northeast
Louisiana where a few record low temperatures could be approached
or fall tonight.

Records Lows for May 25th are as follows...

Shreveport...49 in 2002
Monroe.......53 in 2001
Texarkana....50 in 1935
El Dorado....48 in 2001
Tyler........45 in 1901
Longview.....50 in 1967
Lufkin.......53 in 1910

South winds and much warmer temperatures return in earnest for
Thursday with a 30-40 degree warmup expected across most of the
region from early morning lows. A Lake Wind Advisory will likely
be needed for our western half of the Four State Region on
Thursday, this time for a returning south wind. This windy pattern
will continue through at least Saturday and these southerly winds
will result in a rapid moisture return as well. Weak upper level
ridging across the northern Gulf coast will hold in place through
Saturday but another longwave trough will eject out into the Great
Plains Saturday bringing a cold front with it. This front will
begin impacting our weather Saturday Night into Sunday with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Too early to say if any
severe thunderstorms will accompany this convection for late
weekend into early next week but its certainly possible given the
very warm temperatures in place ahead of the frontal boundary.
There is better agreement now in the medium range that the front
should push through our entire region early next week but possibly
returning sometime Tuesday into Wednesday which would likely keep
our weather rather unsettled.  13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  52  86  68 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  74  51  83  65 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  71  45  84  66 /  10   0   0  10
TXK  72  52  85  68 /  10   0   0  10
ELD  70  48  83  66 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  76  55  87  71 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  75  53  88  71 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  78  56  90  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

28/24/09



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