Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 060554
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1154 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE IN THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BUT CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 25K. WINDS HAVE
SLACKED TO NEAR CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE SITES TONIGHT...BUT THEY
WILL BE VARIABLE AROUND 5KTS ACROSS THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE./20/

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW/ICEPACK
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR HAS ERODED THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN
THE WARM GROUND TEMPS/HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND GOOD INSULATION IN WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING ELEVATED CLOUD COVER. STILL SEEING SOME SNOWPACK LINGER
GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-30 ACROSS SW AR...AND THIS REGION SHOULD BE
COLDEST TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE ONCE ARCTIC SFC RIDGING SETTLES SWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY. THESE AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE UPPER TEENS...AND JUST OUT OF HARD FREEZING WARNING
CRITERIA...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID
20S. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID-EVENING...WITH A LONG DURATION
FREEZE EXPECTED UNTIL MID-MORNING FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE
REGION.

SHOULD START TO SEE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED MOISTURE FROM THE SW
SATURDAY...AS THE W-E UPPER TROUGH JUST W OF THE NRN BAJA COAST CLOSED
OFF TONIGHT...DRIFTS E INTO THE DESERT SW AND OPENS UP SATURDAY JUST
AHEAD OF THE NEAR STATIONARY UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE WRN U.S. COAST.
AREAS OF -RA SHOULD DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY IN THE INCREASINGLY MOIST
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE...AND HAVE TO GRADUALLY
SATURATE THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN. DID EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FARTHER N TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
RAMPED UP POPS SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MAINTAIN WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY IN THE UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT...AND PREFER THESE SOLUTIONS
OVER THE DRIER GFS...BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

SW FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AHEAD OF ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGHING SET TO DEVELOP/POSSIBLY
CLOSE OFF OVER WRN OK/TX TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK OVER THE SRN/ERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT
FOR BETTER DEEP LYR MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL RIPPLES IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD FINALLY RETURN BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  24  47  26  57  37 /   0   0   0  10  20
MLU  22  43  24  55  35 /   0   0   0   0  20
DEQ  18  46  22  56  33 /   0   0   0  10  10
TXK  21  43  26  55  36 /   0   0   0  10  10
ELD  18  41  24  53  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  24  48  28  56  38 /   0   0   0  10  20
GGG  23  48  26  56  38 /   0   0   0  10  20
LFK  26  51  29  59  41 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20




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