Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 182159
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
359 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE RAIN WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
WE SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
OVER THE FAR SRN TIER OF OUR CWA. THIS WILL ALL GET GOING LATER
THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROF SWINGS OUT ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN HAS PRODUCED A CONVEYOR BELT OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND AS A SFC LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE S TX COAST DRAWING IN MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
THE COLUMN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SATURATE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SHWRS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTING NE INTO THE SRN
HALF OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WITH A FEW INCHES STILL POSSIBLE. FARTHER NORTH...MUCH
LESSER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AS MORE STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN OCCURS
ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. DUE TO THE WARM FRONT REMAINING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...THE RAINFALL GRADIENT MAY BE QUITE STEEP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SOME AREAS OVER OUR FAR NRN COUNTIES ONLY
SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE ON
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS THE TROF EXITS TO THE EAST.

THE WEEKEND WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTH ON TUESDAY BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAIN PRODUCER HOWEVER...AS LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND
THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW WILL STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES INCLUDING ON THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  49  40  53  39 /  60  90  20  10  10
MLU  44  49  39  52  39 /  60  90  50  10  10
DEQ  41  49  36  51  36 /  20  40  20  10  10
TXK  42  48  37  51  37 /  30  60  20  10  10
ELD  43  49  36  51  36 /  40  70  30  10  10
TYR  45  50  40  53  40 /  70  80  20  10  10
GGG  45  50  40  53  39 /  70  80  20  10  10
LFK  49  52  42  55  41 /  80 100  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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