Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 131556
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1156 AM AST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...SHOWERS MOVED DOWNWIND FROM ST THOMAS...ST CROIX AND
VIEQUES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THIS SHOWERS MOVED
INLAND OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MAINLAND PUERTO RICO. AS A
RESULT...A MIXED OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND THE MID AND UPPER
80S ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I. AND
BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND LOW 80S IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR
FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING FROM SAN JUAN
AT 13/12Z SHOWED SLIGHT HUMID CONDITIONS AND A CAP INVERSION
AROUND 750 MB. AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AND FAIRLY STABLE
CONDITIONS CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
SURROUNDING WATERS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SOME OF THEM
WILL MOVED INLAND FROM TIME TO TIME. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FCST PRD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EN-ROUTE BTWN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE USVI AND E-PR. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF SHRA/VCSH
ACROSS TIST/TISX/TJSJ. AFTER 13/17Z...SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AND W-SECTIONS OF PR. RESULTING IN
VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-22Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE E-ESE AT 10-15 KTS...WITH SEA
BREEZE AND GUSTS IN/NEAR SHRA. AFT 13/22Z...CALM-LIGHT/VAR WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
NORTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO FADE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET.
ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED AND EAST WINDS AT LESS
THAN 18 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THRU THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...AN INDUCED LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
OVER THE ISLANDS SUN-MON INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ITS REPLACED BY A STRONGER
ONE. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS HIGH BETWEEN
15-20 KNOTS AT THE SFC ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD REACH PARTS OF THE
USVI/WINDWARD AREAS OF PR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WEST SECTIONS OF PR AND STREAMERS DEVELOPING
OVER THE USVI.

AS SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT AND INDUCED SFC TROF MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL INDUCED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND NIGHT TIME TRADE WIND
SHOWERS OVER EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. THIS WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THRU AT LEAST TUESDAY. MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD ONCE AGAIN QUICKLY. THIS WILL RETURN NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND
LIMITING THE LOCAL WEATHER TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR THRU THE END OF THE NEXT
WORK WEEK WHEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN VCSH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT TJMZ BETWEEN 17-
21Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10-15 KTS.

MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELL WILL FADE TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET. ELSEWHERE...SEAS UP TO 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED AND EAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  73  86  73 /  30  30  30  50
STT  84  73  85  73 /  40  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

27/23


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