Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 171433 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR REGION.
WINDS ARE FROM THE EAST AT LOW LEVELS TODAY...THEREFORE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL PR MOVING
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AREAS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
SHALLOW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR
IN SCT SHRA/TSRA AND OBSCD MTNS W AND NW PR THIS AFT. ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE
TDY- THU MRNG BUT SHUD REMAIN VFR. WIND BLO FL070 E 6-14 KTS BECOMING
SE ABV FL080 AT 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-5 FT. NE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TODAY.
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS GENERALLY
BELOW 12 KT MOST OF THE 5-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW NNW OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MERGE
WITH A DEEPENING TROF OVR ERN NOAM BY FRI. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD ON FRI. ANOTHER TUTT WILL ESTABLISH OVR THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT-EARLY
FRI WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL ADVECT
OVR THE AREA TODAY ON A 50-KT WRLY JET STREAK AROUND THE BASE OF
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN FACT...GFS DEVELOPS NO PRECIP AT
ALL TODAY AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE BETWEEN 850-500 MB TODAY
WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY 06Z CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON THURS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W. MOST ACTIVE WX WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT OVR
ERN PR...USVI...COASTAL WATERS AND FRI OVR MAINLAND PR. WHILE
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY DECENT...MODELS STILL SHOW HOSTILE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS. DRYING IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS WAVE
MOVES INTO THE DOM REP. ANOTHER WAVE CURRENTLY ANALIZED ALONG 37W WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUN/EARLY MON WITH RISK OF SHOWERS
INCREASING AGAIN.

AVIATION...VFR XPTD XCP MVFR IN SCT SHRA/TSRA AND OBSCD MTNS NW PR
THIS AFT. ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE TDY-THU MRNG BUT SHUD REMAIN VFR.
WIND BLO FL150 SE 6-14 KT BCMG E TONITE-THU.

MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT. NE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
TODAY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED SAT. OTHERWISE...WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 12 KT MOST OF THE 5-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  80  89  80 /  10  10  20  40
STT  82  81  82  82 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





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