Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 031835
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
235 PM AST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THRU THE WEEK...INCREASING
THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE AND
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED THIS MORNING
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED SMALL SHOWERS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PR.
MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM 1.14 TO
1.40 INCHES BY 04/12Z. HOWEVER...KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FCST
BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE USVI THRU THE MORNING PERIOD AND OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOON.

A DRYING PATTERN IS EXPECTED QUICKLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU AT
LEAST THURSDAY DUE TO AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHING
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE ON TUE-WED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT LEAST UNTIL THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THEN. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY COULD POP UP A FEW SHOWERS BRIEFLY
OVER NORTHWESTERN PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA EXPECTED NW PR TIL 03/22Z THEN FEW SHRA TIL
ARND 04/08Z. AFT 04/08Z SCT SHRA ERN QUARTER PR CLRG AFT 04/12Z.
MVFR CONDS BRIEF WITH SHRA OTHERWISE VFR EVERYWHERE. WINDS ALF ESE 5-
15 KT BLO FL090 BCMG S ARND 10 KT BTWN FL090 AND FL200. WINDS SSW 20-
30 KT UP TO FL400.


&&

.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI ARE INDICATING
SEAS OF 2 TO JUST BELOW 4 FEET AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL INCREASE UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE MON-EARLY TUE DUE TO
DEVELOPING FRESH TO VIGOROUS TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT BY THEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  91  78  91 /  20  10   0  10
STT  78  87  78  88 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13


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