Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 191842
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
242 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
MONA PASSAGE MOVES FURTHER WEST...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES
TO MOVE FURTHER WEST....WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE
EVENING WILL PERSIST MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA AND W PR.

MEANDERING TUTT LOW ACROSS THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH SOME OF THEM REACHING
USVI AND E PR LATE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...A MORE TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS USVI AND E PR IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THESE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
TUTT AXIS MOVES WEST OF PR.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 48
WEST WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
SUNDAY. IT IS TO THEN FORECAST TO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR UNTIL AROUND 19/23Z...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH/VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ISLAND AND TJSJ TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS E TO SE OF 10-15 KT WILL PREVAIL
BELOW FL150...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 30 KT NEAR TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY 5 FEET OR LESS WITH
WINDS GENERALLY UP TO 17 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  79  88 /  40  40  30  30
STT  78  89  78  89 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

02/23





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