Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 311905
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN
EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE ON THURSDAY AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG INVERSION CAUSING SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED IN
TERMS OF INTENSITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. OVERNIGHT ISOLATED LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION EXPECTED TO ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
T-STORMS EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY UNDER IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS.
WX CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN CIGS 040 AT JSJ AND JBQ THIS AFTERNOON WITH -SHRA.
ISOLD -SHRA EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SCT PASSING SHRA AFTER 01/06Z
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT BUILDING 4-6 FT THU
AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  75  88  75  87 /  30  40  40  50
STT  74  84  75  85 /  30  40  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

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