Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 251900
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING GENERATING ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTED THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO. THE INCREASE ON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THESE AREA LIMITED
THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS LOCAL EFFECT DID NOT FULLY DEVELOPED.

AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERS TOMS DEVELOPED OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY AFFECTING THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF SAN SEBASTIAN...MOCA AND AGUADA. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT AROUND OR BEFORE
SUNSET. TONIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE USVI AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.


TUTT PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND/EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH...THIS FEATURE IS NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN TRADE WIND
CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. IN FACT
WEAKENING OF CAP IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE INCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ IN SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 25/22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS GENERATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTIONS THROUGH THE
INCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  79  89 /  20  30  20  20
STT  80  90  80  90 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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