Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 281516
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1116 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SO FAR AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWESTERN PR. MINOR CHANGES MADE
TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.


&&


.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. -SHRA IN AND AROUND TJBQ BETWEEN 28/17-23Z CAUSING
AT LEAST VCSH. EAST TO ESE WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS EXPECTED TODAY.

&&


.MARINE...NEAR SHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 2-4 FEET AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 8-13 KNOTS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM AST WED JAN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...RIDGE ALOFT WILL ERODE TODAY...AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF PR...USVI
AS WELL AS LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH
COASTAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...FEW PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS AND SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER NW PUERTO RICO
UNDER WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.

WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN RAPID MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. APPROACHING SHEARLINE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST PR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE NORTHEAST.

TROUGH ALOFT AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHERN USVI THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA FRIDAY. SLOW DRYING TREND
BEGINS SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.
OVERALL...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...A MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY...BECOMING EAST NORTHEAST THURSDAY AS A SHEAR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY..BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  75  88  75 /  40  40  40  50
STT  83  77  83  77 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

13/12





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