Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300154
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ONLY A RELATIVELY BRIEF SHOWERS
ACROSS SW-PR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND SOME BRIEF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS...SOME OF THEM AFFECTING LAND AREAS IN
THE EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.

NO CHANGES FROM THE INHERITED FORECAST. MOISTURE IS STILL LIMITED
WITH SAHARAN DUST OVER THE LOCAL AREA SLOWLY DIMINISHING. TROPICAL
WAVE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST OF ITS MOISTURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY BUT NOT TOO SIGNIFICANT OF AN
INCREASE. AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE...DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST TO
RETURN UNTIL PROBABLY LATE FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
POSSIBLE VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10KT OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO
AROUND 15KT AND GUSTY AFTER 30/13Z.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL
PASSAGES AND THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE UP TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO 7 FEET.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM AST MON JUN 29 2015/

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST
OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
BY TUESDAY PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE REGION THRU WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THRU THE
END OF THE WEEK.

DISCUSSION...HAZY SKIES PREVAILED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI
GENERATING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WATERS. BY MID
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE FORMING ACROSS SECTIONS OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. IN GENERAL...IT WAS A DRY AND HAZY DAY WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.

BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE MOMENT...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS. MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR AND THE USVI DURING THE NIGHT
PERIOD AND THEN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PR. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...ANOTHER SAHARAN
DUST EVENT WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...BRINGING ONCE AGAIN DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS
SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE FLYING AREA. THEREFORE...
LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 30/22Z.
WINDS OF 15-30 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL050.

MARINE...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN THE CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM AST
TODAY FOR THE SOUTH COASTAL PLAINS OF PUERTO RICO AND MONA
ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS (RFWSJU &
RFDSJU) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  89  79  89 /  20  30  40  40
STT  78  90  79  88 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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