Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 171506

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1106 AM AST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...Shower activity and cloudiness across the region
diminished by the late morning hours leaving mostly sunny skies
with only a few showers over the offshore Caribbean and Atlantic
waters. Limited showers activity expected during the afternoon
but locally and diurnally induced showers may form and quickly
stream southwest across parts of the interior and southwest
sections of PR. No significant accumulations expected, as mostly
fair weather and stable conditions will prevail across the region
for the next few days. However another round of late evening and
early morning showers will be possible mainly along parts of the
north and east sections of PR and the USVI. No changes made to the
inherited forecast package at this time.


.AVIATION update...VFR conds will prevail entire prd. few CU/SC
lyrs nr FL025...FL050...mstly CLR abv.Low level wnds fm NE 15-20
kts blo FL200...bcmg fm W abv and incr w/ht to max wnd btw 70-80
kts nr FL400. Few passing shra en route mainly ovr offshore Atl
waters N of islands. SFC wnd fm NE 10-15 kts w/ocnl gusts of 20-25
kts psbl. No sig operational impacts attm.


.MARINE update...No chg to previous marine discussion. Winds and
Seas will continue to gradually diminish and subside through
Wednesday. Small craft advisories will remain in effect for the
offshore waters and local passages. Small craft should exercise
caution else where.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 AM AST Tue Jan 17 2017/

SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the western Atlantic will move
east as a intense low pressure system exits the U.S. east coast
Wednesday into Thursday. A east to east northeast wind flow will
continue to dominates the local region. Winds will diminish
considerably next few days.

DISCUSSION...Periods of passing showers prevailed across the
local islands overnight. Showers affected the eastern half of
Puerto Rico with rainfall accumulation less than half inch. An
east to east northeast wind flow will continue to prevail today.
These winds will transport showers across the region from time to
time. Local area will continue to be dominated by a high pressure
system which is located north of the area over the western
Atlantic. This high pressure is expected to weaken next couple of
days as a deep surface low pressure area moves across the western
Atlantic, eroding the high pressure. As a result, winds are
expected to diminish significantly especially after Thursday. No
major changes in the weather pattern is expected next several days
as relatively dry weather conditions are expected to continue
across the local area.

AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local
flying area however, a few passing -SHRA/SHRA expected across TAF
sites at times. Winds expected from the E/NE at around 10 kt
increasing at 15 to 20 kt and gusty aft 17/12z.

MARINE...Seas will continue to gradually subside later today into
Wednesday. Seas up to 7 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
to continue through Wednesday morning.


SJU  82  73  81  71 /  30  30  30  10
STT  84  72  82  70 /  30  30  20  20


PR...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Culebra-Mayaguez
     and Vicinity-North Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and
     Vicinity-Southeast-Western Interior.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for Northeast.

VI...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for St Croix.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM AST Wednesday for Anegada
     Passage Southward to 17N-Atlantic Waters of Puerto Rico and
     USVI from 10 NM to 19.5N-Mona Passage Southward to 17N.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST this evening for Caribbean
     Waters of Puerto Rico from 10 NM to 17N.



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