Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 271113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
613 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Earlier this morning, showers and thunderstorms were backbuilding
across northeast Kansas with thunderstorms and heavy rain seen
across most of the area. Since then, this convection has primarily
moved east with only scattered showers remaining. The surface
front generally stretched across east central Kansas will continue
to move southeast through the morning and will be situated in
southern. Kansas by early afternoon. With this progression,
chances for precipitation are on the decrease with only slight
chances seen through the afternoon in east central Kansas. Low
clouds are expected to stick around through the afternoon with the
exception of north central Kansas where some clearing behind this
system will occur. This will limit high temperatures for the day
with mid-80s seen across the area for the afternoon. Continued
clearing will occur overnight for northern Kansas as surface high
pressure noses in from the northeast. Here, the coolest low
temperatures will be seen reaching into the mid- 60s. With mostly
clear skies and light winds, plus a moist ground from this
mornings storms, patchy fog may be seen late tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

In general the forecast thinking for Friday through Wednesday
hasn`t changed much from the last couple days. Models continue to
show the synoptic pattern developing into upper ridging to the
west and upper troughing to the east. The main differences in the
various solutions have to deal with smaller scale features.
Convection over the central high plains through the weekend could
lead to MCVs. For now the consensus is for these features to
remain to the west of the forecast area. Then there is some
potential for weak cyclonic flow to develop within the larger
pattern early next week. The Canadian model has continued to show
this in the last two runs, although it is not nearly as strong
with the system as it was last night. Basically with the upper
trough weakening to the east, the northwest flow does not appear
to be all that strong which may allow for these subtle waves to
move through the region. With the GFS and ECMWF continuing to keep
QPF out of the area and the Canadian backing off on the extent of
QPF, generally keep a dry forecast through the period. The
exceptions are for a few periods with slight chance POPs across
north central KS Sunday and again Tuesday to match up with
neighboring offices.

Relatively cool temperatures look to remain over the region
through Wednesday as surface ridging remains just northeast and
east of the forecast area limiting much of a return flow. With an
easterly component to the surface winds, highs are expected to
remain in the 80s while lows persist in the 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Precipitation this morning is expected to stay south of TAF sites.
Sites vary with IFR or MVFR ceilings this morning, with MVFR
ceilings expected to hold through 19Z. Winds will persist from the
north-northeast through the period.




LONG TERM...Wolters
AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.