288
FXUS64 KFWD 102017
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
317 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1152 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
/This afternoon through Saturday night/

Cooler and drier air has filtered into the region this morning
behind yesterday`s cold front. Weak cold air advection will be
offset by plenty of late spring sun, sending temperatures into the
upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon. A slightly breezy north to
northeast wind will continue through the afternoon making for a
very pleasant day. There is a very slight chance for showers and
storms across portions of Central Texas this afternoon due to the
arrival of subtle shortwave energy ejecting from the base of an
approaching mid-level trough. Moisture and instability will both
be limited, so we will only keep the a slight chances mentioned.

Any showers/storms that do manage to develop will dissipate
during the evening. Otherwise, tonight will be partly cloudy and
cool with lows ranging from the upper 50s near the Red River to
the middle 60s across parts of Central Texas.

Middle and high clouds associated with the approaching low
pressure system will increase on Saturday. Rain chances will also
gradually increase from west to east through the day but the lower
levels of the atmosphere will remain dry. Therefore, rain amounts
will be light. A few thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon as
well with increasing mid-level instability. Severe storms are not
expected.

Low level moisture and large scale ascent will both increase
Saturday night in response to the low pressure system lifting out
of the Four Corners region. As a result, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop primarily along and west of the I-35
corridor. Limited instability should keep all storms sub-severe.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
The previous discussion captures next week`s forecast fairly well.
North and Central Texas will continue in an active weather pattern
with spouts of showers and storms every 2-3 days. During the dry
periods, expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Hernandez

Previous Discussion:
/Sunday Onward/

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will
continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a
deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which
will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning
early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will
allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection
to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and
broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in
scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday
morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability
will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather,
at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient
parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly
a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across
Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition,
moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues,
particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average
rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain
totals of 1-2" are plausible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime
Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final
chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow-
moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to
the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the
process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday
afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s
highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation
returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging
following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer
weather will prevail on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and
Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over
the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and
favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with
active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1152 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Dry post-frontal air will remain in place through Saturday
afternoon resulting in VFR conditions. High clouds will increase
this afternoon and tonight as a low pressure system enters the
Desert Southwest.

A few elevated showers/storms currently developing across the
Concho Valley will stay far removed from D10 but a few could
approach Waco late this afternoon and evening with the passing of
a weak shortwave. Coverage will be too limited to include in this
TAF package.

A northeast wind will prevail through the afternoon between 10 and
14 knots along with some gusts around 20 knots. The wind will
fall below 12 knots this evening through Saturday morning while
becoming more easterly.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    63  80  64  73  65 /   5  20  20  70  60
Waco                63  77  64  74  67 /  10  10  30  90  50
Paris               58  80  61  75  62 /   5   5  10  30  70
Denton              59  79  60  72  63 /  10  20  20  70  60
McKinney            59  79  61  72  64 /   5  10  20  60  60
Dallas              63  79  64  72  65 /   5  10  20  70  60
Terrell             60  79  63  74  64 /   5  10  20  60  70
Corsicana           63  80  65  75  66 /   5   5  20  80  60
Temple              63  79  64  74  67 /  10  20  30  90  50
Mineral Wells       60  77  61  72  64 /  10  30  30  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$