Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
471 FXUS64 KFWD 051847 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 147 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Monday Night/ Weather Highlights: - A few storms possible this afternoon across Central Texas - Patchy fog overnight - Late morning-early afternoon showers and storms in East Texas. - An isolated severe storm or two possible across North Texas (west of I-35) late tomorrow afternoon. Cloudy to mostly cloudy skies have been in place throughout much of the region. The one exception has been across the Brazos Valley, where subsidence from the morning MCS had kept clouds at a minimum until recently. A northward moving moisture boundary, evident by the sharp increase in dew points, will continue its northward migration through the rest of this afternoon. Although there`s plenty of instability at this time, there`s some question as to whether the developing storms across I-10 will hamper storm development in our area. If a storm does manage to develop, small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Any storms this afternoon will quickly dissipate after sunset, setting the stage for patchy fog across much of our region. By Monday morning, any patchy fog will dissipate with low clouds lingering through around noon. High temperatures tomorrow will be 5-8 degrees warmer compared to today given continued south flow. With moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in, warm air advection showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon. Although MUCAPE will be fairly high (~3000 J/Kg), an elevated thermal inversion will help keep the updrafts from tapping into the elevated instability and precipitation should remain below the capping inversion. Later tomorrow afternoon, a shortwave will be advancing eastward into the Southern Plains as a dryline sharpen just west of our area. Strong southwesterly 850mb flow will help keep the cap in place much of the afternoon. If the cap weakens enough, there is a low potential a storm develops across western North Texas tomorrow afternoon. *IF* a storm develops, comparative analogs suggest the environment is volatile enough to produce very large hail. There is a high potential that storms do not develop, however, on the off chance that they do, they will quickly become severe. Any storms tomorrow will gradually dissipate after sunset, leaving behind dry conditions the rest of the night. Monday night temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s throughout much of the region. The one exception will be in the far northwest, where a cold front will be moving in and temperatures in the upper 50s can be expected. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 255 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024/ /Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/ On Monday, a negatively-tilted upper-level trough will eject northeastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s coupled with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will drive strong instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) ahead of an eastward mixing dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing coinciding with the strong height falls overspreading the Plains, especially across Kansas and Oklahoma, should eventually overcome any remaining capping by the late afternoon. Convective coverage is likely to be lower the further south you go due to weaker ascent and a lingering cap. Any storms that manage to develop, particularly north of I-20, should quickly become severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler post-frontal air to the region mid to late week. On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally, the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position (near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s. Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however, as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Storms in Central Texas may likely stay south of KACT this afternoon. Low ceilings and patchy fog return areawide tonight. The ongoing MVFR ceilings are now in the process of eroding with VFR expected in the next few hours. Wind speed and direction has remained variable throughout much of the day, and will continue this way through around sunset. After sunset, winds will become established out of the southeast with low clouds building back in after midnight. Patchy fog will be possible tonight. Confidence in visibility reduction is higher across Central Texas. For North Texas, we`ll continue to monitor trends and adjust the TAF as needed. Tomorrow morning, a few showers and storms will be possible east of I-35. Although impacts to the immediate airports are not expected, traffic east of I-35 may deal with a few pop-up showers or isolated storms. Another batch of thunderstorms is expected to develop northwest of the D10 airspace tomorrow afternoon. The probability that any convection impacts D10 is low at this time, thus, it will not be included in the TAF. Similar to the fog, overnight trends will have to be monitored closely given the small scale atmospheric features will have a big impact on the forecast. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 84 71 88 72 / 5 20 10 0 5 Waco 68 82 71 88 71 / 10 20 5 5 5 Paris 64 81 70 86 70 / 10 20 30 5 10 Denton 65 83 68 87 70 / 5 20 20 0 5 McKinney 65 81 69 87 70 / 5 20 20 0 5 Dallas 68 84 71 89 72 / 5 20 10 0 5 Terrell 66 81 70 86 71 / 5 20 20 0 5 Corsicana 68 84 71 88 73 / 10 20 10 5 5 Temple 68 83 71 88 71 / 10 10 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 66 84 66 88 70 / 5 20 5 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$