Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
385 FXUS64 KFWD 301006 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable conditions will continue this week with daily highs in the 90s and heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees at times. - There are low chances for storms Monday night and Tuesday across parts of North Texas, and late Thursday into early Friday near the Big Country. Severe storms are not expected. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The previous forecast remains in good shape and no changes were needed for the early morning update. Incoming model forecasts overnight at first glance indicate a better potential for storms to cross the Red River tonight into areas north of I-20, but there are a few larger factors working against this potential and will continue to evaluate the need for higher PoPs tonight. JLDunn Previous Discussion: /Monday through Monday night/ Convection continues to occur to our west, north, and northeast tonight with an upper level ridge keeping North and Central Texas dry, but some of this may change Monday night. None of the current overnight convection is expected to reach North Texas. With the upper level ridge remaining over North and Central Texas today, afternoon highs will again reach the lower to mid 90s, and heat index values will pass the triple digit mark in many locations. A 10-15 mph breeze, with occasional gusts up to 20 mph, will provide occasional relief from the heat. Afternoon convection will again develop in the Texas Panhandle this afternoon, but we will be watching to the north as another complex of storms moves south through Oklahoma. This system will be accompanied by a front, and is expected to approach the Red River after dark. Most convection-allowing models weaken these storms as they approach the Red River, but still push at least a few storms along an outflow boundary into the northern parts of North Texas. The properties of the cold pool of the Oklahoma system will likely play a deciding factor in where and how far south this boundary and any storms advance Monday night, and those details will be difficult to nail down until the system develops. Will keep 20-30% PoPs roughly along and north of I-20 tonight with the best rain chances north of Highway 380. Rainfall amounts will be minimal with overall values less than 0.10 inches. There is a less than 10% percent chance for rainfall totals closer to 0.50 inches. Severe weather is not expected but gusty winds and lightning will be possible. JLDunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 241 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ /Tuesday Onward/ Outflow associated with dissipating convection along the Red River will help push a meandering front south to near the Highway 380 corridor on Tuesday. The boundary will serve as a surface focus for isolated showers and storms Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a weak shortwave rounds the north flank of a 500mb ridge centered over East Texas. The ridge will work against convective attempts, precluding higher coverage and likely keeping most locations rain-free. Tuesday`s POPs will hence be limited to areas along and north of I-20 and capped at 30 percent. The rest of the week will feature the battle between the ridge on one side vs surface outflow and weak disturbances aloft on the other. The aforementioned shortwave will work its way over to the Arklatex region on Wednesday, limiting Wednesday`s rain chances to areas north of I-20 and east of I-35 (even those will be below 20%). The next disturbance will lift northeast from Mexico through the Big Country of Texas Thursday night into Friday. Isolated thunderstorms will once again be the result late Thursday and Friday, with rain/storm chances being limited to areas west of I-35. Though most areas will stay dry, there is a 10-20 percent chance that a shower or storm may affect outdoor July 3rd/4th activities, with the highest potential across the western half of the forecast area. The ridge will become a little stronger after the 4th, pushing high temperatures into the upper 90s and heat index values near 105 over the weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail today with south-southwest to south- southeast winds between 10-15 kts, and occasionally higher gusts. A complex of storms will move into the Red River area before 06Z tonight. There is currently a less than 20% chance these storms move into the DFW Metroplex, but this potential will be assessed throughout the day. If the convection does travel as far south as the DFW Metroplex, a wind shift to the north can also be expected with an associated outflow boundary. Neither of these 2 possibilities are great enough to be mentioned in the 12Z TAF package, but the winds overnight will shift more to the southwest and west overnight. However, speeds should be less than 10 kts. JLDunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 77 95 78 96 / 5 20 20 5 10 Waco 94 75 95 75 95 / 10 5 10 5 10 Paris 92 75 92 73 93 / 5 30 20 5 10 Denton 95 75 93 74 95 / 5 30 20 5 10 McKinney 95 76 93 75 96 / 5 30 20 5 10 Dallas 96 78 97 78 98 / 5 20 20 5 10 Terrell 94 76 95 75 96 / 5 20 20 5 10 Corsicana 94 76 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 5 10 Temple 95 73 96 73 95 / 10 5 10 5 10 Mineral Wells 96 74 94 74 96 / 5 30 20 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$