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000
FXUS62 KMLB 281427
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1027 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE... (Through Today)
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:
-High risk of rip currents at Atlantic beaches.
-Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue today.
-Warming up, mostly dry through the new work week.

Forecast is in good shape this morning. The latest sounding off
the Cape (28/10Z XMR) revealed a tiny area of CAPE trapped below
an inversion near and above H85. This positive area is much more
shallow than yesterday; consequently, shower chances are lower at
10-20% this afternoon. More likely than not, a few sprinkles or
trace amounts would be the most we can squeeze out. With only a
few light radar returns approaching the Volusia coast right now,
this checks out. Otherwise, partly sunny skies prevail. Highs
should respond into the low/mid 80s over the interior with upper
70s/low 80s along the coast. It will remain breezy with a few
easterly gusts 20-25 mph. Beach-goers will still experience rough
surf and a high risk of rip currents; it is best to stay out of
the water today!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Still have VCSH in for a few terminals this afternoon as ~ 20%
shower chances persist. Otherwise, VFR should prevail with steady
east winds 10-20 KT, strongest at the coast with occasional 25KT
gusts through early evening. No significant aviation impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1026 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Through Tonight...Seas are slow to subside offshore this morning,
remaining around 7 FT 20 nm E of Port Canaveral. Though winds have
lessened a bit, we did decide to extend the Small Craft Advisory
for offshore waters until 4 PM ET. Otherwise, nearshore operators
should exercise caution for 4-6 FT seas through the afternoon.
Tonight, ESE winds hold around 10-15 KT with general seas 3-5 FT,
locally 6 FT well offshore. At least a moderate wind chop on
inland waterways today.

Monday-Wednesday...(previous disc.) A relaxing pressure gradient
as the surface high pressure drifts seaward will allow for
improving boating conditions through mid week. Seas of 4-5 ft on
Monday will subside to 3-4 ft late Tuesday as east to southeast
winds up to 15 knots drop to 10-15 knots through mid week.
Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters will be possible each
day, but lightning is not forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today...The pressure gradient remains tight across ECFL, again.
ERLY wind speeds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, especially
later this morning and afternoon. Winds do diminish this evening,
gradually, 5-10 mph interior and 10-15 mph coast (with higher
gusts here). Min aftn RH`s 40-45pct well into interior and 45-
55pct towards the coast. Dispersions remain VG-EX! Few sprinkles,
brief light showers around again this morning, early afternoon,
but any already very ISOLD trend should be diminishing further
into the afternoon as drier air moves into the area.

This Week...While breezy conditions early in the week begin to
subside, fire sensitive conditions will continue as a warming trend
commences. Minimum RH values will drop below 40% across the interior
each afternoon, most prominently across Lake and western Osceola
counties. Light passing showers will be possible on Monday, but
otherwise rain remains out of the forecast this week.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Monday-Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

This Week...A stagnant pattern will remain in place over the next
7 days, with very little day to day change. An upper level ridge
remains anchored over the eastern CONUS, with the surface high
pressure offshore from the Carolinas drifting only slightly
seaward by mid week. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on
Monday, but still, deep east to southeasterly flow will hold
steady towards next weekend. Will continue to carry a slight
chance for showers over the Atlantic waters each day as trapped
moisture wraps around the periphery of the high. On Monday,
mentionable rain chances will be present along the entire east
central FL coastline, retreating just to the Treasure Coast on
Tuesday. No thunder is forecast, and any showers should be very
brief and quick moving. Temperatures will climb a few degrees each
day, with the low 80s at the coast and mid/upper 80s inland on
Monday approaching 90 degrees by Wed/Thu (still cooler at the
coast with the oceanic influence). Lows persist at seasonable
values in the mid 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  81  65 /  20   0  10   0
MCO  81  63  86  65 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  79  66  81  67 /  20   0  20  10
VRB  81  64  83  65 /  20   0  20  10
LEE  83  63  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  81  63  85  65 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  82  64  86  66 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  80  64  83  65 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
LONG TERM...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil
DECISION SUPPORT...Weitlich