Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
430 AM MST TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Good amounts of monsoon moisture has returned to
northern Arizona especially across Coconino, Yavapai, Northern
Gila, eastern Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains for today. Expect
good coverage of showers and thunderstorms especially over the
mountains. On Wednesday dry and more stable air should move
southward leading to an isolated storm threat from I-40 northward.
To the south and southwest expect scattered storms to continue
from the Mogollon Rim region south.

.DISCUSSION...A weak weather disturbance will continue to move
east across northern Arizona today with deep subtropical moisture
along and to the south of this feature. Expecting numerous showers
and thunderstorms to develop across portions of Coconino, Yavapai,
northern Gila counties, eastern Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains
with lesser shower and thunderstorm activity over the Four Corners
region today. Storms are forecast to develop by late morning into
the evening time period.

An upper level high pressure ridge is forecast to develop to the
NW of Arizona later today and into Wednesday. This shifts the
subtropical high pressure ridge into and unfavorable position for
sustaining a northward push of deep subtropical moisture. In fact
with the subtropical high pressure ridge to our NW, this flow
pattern will bring drier more stable air to portions of northern
Arizona mainly from the Mogollon Rim northward from Wednesday
through Friday.

Saturday into Tuesday...The subtropical high pressure ridge
returns to a more favorable position, to the east of Arizona,
this will allow for deeper subtropical moisture to move northward
and numerous thunderstorms to return to northern Arizona.

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...expect another active day of shra
and tsra across northern arizona. til 18z widely scattered
precipitation coverage with cloud bases aoa 14kft msl. 18z-02z weds
sct-nmrs storm coverage with MVFR and IFR possible in the stronger
storms. aft 02z weds precipitation coverage decreasing to widely
scattered. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.




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