Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...THEN DROPPING BACK TO NORMAL
BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING SHOWED 3-4 DEGREE C WARMING UP
TO 700 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 900 AM MST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 3-8 DEGREE F WARMING (OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS)
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING. MADE A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN
AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR
AREA. HAVE MADE AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. SATELLITE PW
IMAGE SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA TO SOUTHERN AND
EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS MORNING. FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTH AND WEST IT
IS AROUND HALF AN INCH OR LES...SOUTH-EAST IT IS 0.75 UP TO OVER
1.50 OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR TODAY SHOWS
GREATEST CHANCE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DECREASING NORTH
THROUGH WEST...NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.


&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /655 AM MST/...SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL SIT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND DUE TO THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...THIS CIRCULATION WILL TEND TO DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. CURRENTLY 1.0"+ PW
AIR HAS MOVED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH
1.5"+ PW AIR OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IS THE AIRMASS THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE.  EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRST OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM TODAY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE...THEN CHANCE SHRA/TSRA AS FAR NORTH AS
FLAGSTAFF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN TO THE GRAND CANYON COUNTRY
BY THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIALLY FORM WILL
BE HIGH BASED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN WETTER STORMS WILL REPLACE THE HIGHER BASED
STORMS AS THE MOISTURE PROGRESSES NORTHWESTWARD.

THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST FROM THE
COCONINO PLATEAU...MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES...WITH MVFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KSEZ...KFLG...KGCN. LOOK FOR ISOLATED -SHRA/TSRA BTWN
18Z TUE -03Z WEDS...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF A KFLG-KRQE LINE. WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/TC
AVIATION.......JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF















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