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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 221646
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
946 AM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BEGINNING TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AND
BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPS OVER THE
COMING DAYS REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS
MORNING. WIND AND FIRE WX HEADLINE PRODUCTS CONTINUE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AND
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...INDICATING THE LOW
CENTER OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON...WITH SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING
THE GREAT BASIN TODAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WITH PLENTY OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY (SEE PHXRFWFGZ FOR DETAILS). SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY (SEE PHXNPWFGZ)
AND IS PROBABLE FOR THURSDAY. LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP
IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM...NEAR AVERAGE
FOR LATE MAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN
PERSISTS...THOUGH THE LOW OVER THE PAC NW SHOULD WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND SPEEDS IN
ARIZONA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING
OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. FOR NOW...WE EXPECT A MINOR DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...BUT SPEEDS MAY STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES...STAY TUNED. THERE IS
NO PRECIP IN SIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING VERY NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 15-25KT GUSTS
30-40KT. FASTEST WINDS OVER AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AREAS
OF BLDU POSSIBLE ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES BTWN 20Z WEDS-
02Z THU. AFT 02Z WINDS SOUTHWEST 10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE AND WINDS DECREASE.
SOME LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN MAY CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE BREEZY OVERNIGHT WINDS. ON THURSDAY...VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ104>117-
138>140.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ104>117-
138>140.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ004-006>008-
012-013-015-016-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/JJ
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF