Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 110426

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
926 PM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to broken high clouds will persist along
and south of the Mogollon Rim overnight into Monday. High pressure
will lead to above normal daytime temperatures, relatively light
east winds and very dry conditions through much of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Little change in the weather expected over the next
several days as a highly amplified ridge of high pressure over the
western part of the country remains in control. High clouds are
present mainly along and south of the Mogollon Rim due to an upper
low situated near Baja California. These high clouds will persist
over the area through Monday night as the low slowly slides east
and weakens. The upcoming week will feature above normal daytime
temperatures, generally light northeast winds, and dry weather.
The current forecast handles this well and no updates are needed
this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /320 PM MST/...A ridge of high pressure will
continue to dominate the weather pattern over the next seven days
keeping all passing upper level disturbances to our north. This
will lead to above normal temperatures and very dry conditions
for the foreseeable future.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds remain light and easterly
through the midweek. Periods of dense high clouds will be possible
along and south of the Mogollon Rim Monday as moisture from a
closed low passing to our south along the Mexico/AZ border slopes
upward into our area. By Tuesday, back to mostly sunny conditions
through the rest of the week.

Thursday through Sunday...Winds will become more northerly
Thursday then shift to the northwest by Saturday as a couple of
upper level disturbances pass to our north. High clouds will
return Saturday as a weak trough of low pressure brushes past the
AZ/UT border. This system will bring a slight cool down in
temperatures but all indications are that we will remain dry at
this time.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions over the next 24
hours under a SCT-BKN cirrus deck mainly along and south of the
Mogollon Rim. NE sfc winds 5-15kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Very little change in day to day weather through
Tuesday. Expect variable high level cloud cover through Monday night
as a weak upper low passes south of our state on Monday. The airmass
to remain stable with very light east to northeast mixing layer

Wednesday through Friday...Above average daytime temperatures (+5 to
10 degrees) and dry conditions will continue, as northeast flow
aloft persists. Generally light winds are expected.






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