Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 021042
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
342 AM MST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PACIFIC LOW WILL DROP DOWN THE CALIFORNIA
COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MILD AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO AVERAGE EARLY JUNE
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DEEPENS WHILE DROPPING
SOUTH ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DEVELOPING
INTO AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CLOSED LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW.
SIMILAR AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD
TO THE INITIAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE (FROM DECAYING TROPICAL
CYCLONE ANDRES) THAT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA ON THURSDAY.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARD TO A SECONDARY PUSH OF MOISTURE
(RELATED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA). THE GFS MODEL IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SECOND DECAYING
CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE SURGE. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALL IN
ALL...THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
MOISTURE INCREASES WILL RESULT IN AN UNUSUALLY
COOLER...CLOUDIER...AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN (FOR EARLY
JUNE) FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SLOWLY DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. EXPECT WARM AND DRY WEATHER WITH BREEZY
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PACIFIC LOW WILL DROP INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AS TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. MOISTURE
LEVELS TREND HIGHER WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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