Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 311637
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AS A COLD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. BY THIS WEEKEND...WINDY AND
COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON
SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 7000 FEET
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS A
SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 130W WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
FIRST EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WIND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN STAYING STRONG
THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SUNDAY. SFC WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOME LEE SIDE LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...HIGHER PW VALUES TO OUR SOUTH FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IMPORTED NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SURFACE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND COLDER AIR
MOVE INTO THE STATE AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. THE BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE THROUGH THE I-17 CORRIDOR AND
WESTWARD. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH BELOW 7000 FEET AND
THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON SEEM PROBABLE FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST. MORE
ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DRYING FLOW AND RIDGING DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.

ALL TRENDS DISCUSSED ARE REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT GRIDS. THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WILL LIKELY FEATURE HIGHER POPS AND A BIT MORE
FOCUS ON WHERE SNOW MAY FALL...AS WELL AS A WIND ADVISORY. NO SHORT
TERM UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS FROM
25-30 KTS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF A K0V7-KPAN LINE AFTER 21Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF






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