Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230349
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
849 PM MST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS ARE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING...AND WIND ADVISORIES
AND RED FLAG WARNING HAVE ALL EXPIRED. STILL...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LIGHTER
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SEASONABLY MILD DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /250 PM MST/...
THE SCATTERED CU AND OVERCAST CIRRUS ARE MOVING EAST WITH SLOWLY
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT PEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ON
WEDNESDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND APACHE
COUNTIES.

THURSDAY...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LIGHT
AFTERNOON BREEZES.

THE NEXT TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR NORTHERN
ARIZONA. PROGS ARE BETTER TIMING AGREEMENT AND SHOW THIS SYSTEM
CROSSING OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST AZ AND ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS LOW AS 6000 FEET SATURDAY
MORNING WEST OF A PAGE TO PAYSON LINE. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST
THE SYSTEM TO MOVE OUT...WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER AND SUGGESTING A
COLD AND SHOWERY SUNDAY AND LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 5-15
KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT. AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 10-20 KTS GUSTING TO
30 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT AFTERNOON
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THRESHOLDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL APPROACH ARIZONA WITH INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA STARTING SATURDAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DL
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD/MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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