Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 301606
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
905 AM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS WEEKEND...MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
AND THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
TODAYS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 200 AM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WOBBLE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT...WE ARE EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF FAR EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA WHERE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED
STORMS.

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK LOW WILL FORM
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH/LOW
COUPLET WILL ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND PRODUCE AN
ENVIRONMENT BETTER FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE NET
RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PREDOMINANTLY BEFORE 02Z. ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY DAYTIME BREEZES OTHERWISE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........41 / MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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