Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 140429
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
929 PM MST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY AND
OCCASIONAL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND WIND TO NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY WITH A
SHOWER OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE.
&&

.DISCUSSION...RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS AGAIN TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS...SUNDAY. HOWEVER
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. FOR NORTHERN
AZ...AS THE WEAK TROUGH MOVES ON BY TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /347 PM MST/...HIGH PRESSURE BENEATH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW RESULTING IN COOLER...BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE THIS WEEK ALLOWING A WEAK
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CLOUDY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ALSO EXISTS...HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE REGARDING THE
TRACK AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME MODELS HINT TOWARDS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
THE MOMENT AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TC/TRC
AVIATION...TC


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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