Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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849 FXUS65 KFGZ 080519 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1020 PM MST Tue May 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures are forecast through the remainder of the week along with typical springtime breezy winds. A shift in the weather is expected over the weekend into next week with a slight chance of rain showers for portions of northern Arizona. && .UPDATE...Winds are weakening and temperatures are falling this evening; the Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning were allowed to expire on time. Expect a cool and clear night across northern Arizona with freezes in the high country. The current forecast is on track and no updates are needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION /420 PM MST/...Windy conditions persist this afternoon with several locations seeing peak wind gusts between 35 and 50 mph. In addition to the winds, very dry conditions have lead to critical fire weather conditions in portions of northeast Arizona. Wind Advisories and Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 7 PM MST this evening. Winds will begin to subside shortly after sunset, becoming light for most areas after midnight. Outside of the bothersome winds, the weather is mundane. Seasonal temperatures and mostly sunny skies. Models show an very elongated, positively tilted trough stretching from the Central Plains through Arizona later this week. As the original low pressure area pushes eastward, a cutoff low wants to develop over the state, leading to cooler temperatures and unsettled conditions. There is not a clear consensus among ensemble members (GEFS or EPS) in regards to precipitation chances and amounts, but at a minimum, expect increased cloud cover. As the cutoff low hangs out over the southwest U.S., a ridge sets up our north, created a Rex Block pattern. It is unclear how long this synoptic pattern will persist. Breezy winds will reoccur each afternoon with gusts between 15 and 25 mph. At this time, the best chances for our area will initially be along the Utah border beginning Friday afternoon (5-20%.) These rain chances will shift towards the New Mexico border by Saturday, remaining slight (10-25%.) More widespread activity will be possible Sunday into the start of next week with the best chances (15-25%) likely along the Mogollon Rim. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 08/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds W-SW5-15g20kts through 08Z, then decreasing to less than 10Kts overnight. Some NE sfc winds overnight to 10 kts SW of higher terrain. Sfc winds W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z Wednesday and decreasing to less than 10kts AFT 02Z Thursday, NE drainage winds redeveloping by 04Z Thursday. OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/06Z through Saturday 11/06Z...Expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds VRB 5-15kts in the overnight and morning hours each day, then W-SW10-20g25kts AFT 18Z each day. Areas just SW of higher terrain may see NE drainage winds to 15kts each night. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Much lighter afternoon southwest winds 10 to 20 mph each day, light and variable winds in the overnight and early morning hours. Continued dry, with daytime temperatures running several degrees below normal. Friday through Sunday...Daytime temperatures warming a few degrees above normal by the weekend. Afternoon southwest winds from 10 to 20 mph each day, with gusts to 25 mph. Winds a bit more westerly by Sunday. Overnight and early morning winds light and variable, with some easterly drainage winds through mid-morning. Isolated, high- based showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon, mainly in the northern and eastern zones. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Benji/Mazon AVIATION...Peterson FIRE WEATHER...Peterson For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff