Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 262155
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRI-SUN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORDS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SEE THE TABLE BELOW FOR
THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS AT A FEW SELECTED SITES.

LOCATION   DATE  FORECAST   RECORD
                   HIGH    HIGH/YEAR

FLAGSTAFF  3/27     68      70/1986
           3/28     69      68/1971
           3/29     66      70/1934

WINSLOW    3/27     77      81/1971
           3/28     81      80/1943
           3/29     78      80/1917

PRESCOTT   3/27     76      79/1986
           3/28     78      77/1986
           3/29     75      78/1971

SUNDAY ONWARD...MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS FORECAST A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WITH VORTICITY
STAYING LARGELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A
WEAKER...MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. WOULD FAVOR THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION
GIVEN THEIR PRESENT AGREEMENT AND SIMILARITY TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. OVERALL HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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