Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 200419

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
918 PM MST Sat Aug 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the
White Mountains and Mogollon Rim tonight and early Sunday.
Increasing moisture will lead to higher chances of showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area by Sunday afternoon and
into next week.

.DISCUSSION...The 00Z KFGZ sounding showed 0.64" Pwat, a steady
increase from yesterday evening. Scattered showers did develop late
this afternoon and evening across the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim,
to near the Grand Canyon. Most of this activity has ended. An area
of low pressure over the Bootheel of New Mexico is moving northward
this evening. This could help trigger showers and thunderstorms over
the far southeastern part of our CWA after midnight and into the
morning hours. The increasing moisture and cloud cover will
keep temps up tonight as well. Current forecast has this covered.


.PREV DISCUSSION /330 PM MST...Some increase in moisture over the
region has resulted in isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
this afternoon, mainly in southern Navajo and Apache counties. Storm
coverage is expected to remain fairly limited this evening but an
isolated shower or thunderstorm could make it as far north and west
as the Flagstaff area.

Southerly flow will advect in additional moisture on Sunday and
into next week leading to increased storm activity across the
region. Model guidance does indicate the potential for a trough to
swing northward into Arizona the middle of next week which would
act to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity further. After mid
week, there looks to be a gradual drying trend with decreasing
chances for convection as we head into next weekend.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA south of a KPAN-
KRQE line overnight and into Sunday morning. 17Z-01Z ISOLD-SCT -
SHRA/TSRA with the highest coverage over the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A slight chance of showers will persist overnight
and into Sunday morning from around Flagstaff southeastward. Deeper
moisture begins to return to much of northern Arizona on Sunday, and
with it chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms continuing through Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Thunderstorm chances persist through the
period, with generally light winds outside of storm activity.






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