Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 212150
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
250 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
COOLING TREND BY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT EAST OUT OF
THE AREA...WITH COOL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 6 AND 9
DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH READINGS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM
ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA FROM EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SUBTLE WARMING TREND OVER THE
REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY INTO FRIDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH VALLEY TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S...AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER.

YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE NCEP
ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS INDICATING BETTER CONSISTENCY FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN WITH THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ADDING
TO FORECASTER CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY. THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE VALLEY MAINLY NORTH OF KERN COUNTY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. AT BEST...NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA COUNTIES MAY SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS THAT
BRUSHED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...GIVING US NO
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR
A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING...LOCATION...AND ANY POSSIBILITY OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS WEEK.

ONE THING WE ARE CONFIDENT ON...IS THE FACT THAT THIS NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER COOLING TREND TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS LOW.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949
KFAT 10-22       92:1948     63:2012     64:1982     35:1961
KFAT 10-23       90:1965     57:1956     64:1982     35:1975

KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
KBFL 10-22       95:1901     63:1985     65:1982     37:1920
KBFL 10-23       97:1929     64:1975     65:1982     34:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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