Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 110100
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
500 PM PST Sat Dec 10 2016
Updated air quality section.
.SYNOPSIS...A warm storm system will move through tonight.
Dry conditions are likely Sunday and Monday, then precipitation
chances return Tuesday as another storm moves through the area.
.DISCUSSION...Moisture plume remains pointed mainly to the north
of the forecast area this afternoon with just Merced and Mariposa
counties getting any precipitation. Impressive and extensive
atmospheric river extends back well to the southwest of Hawaii and
this feed will continue to affect the West Coast for the next few
days. For the Central Interior, highest resolution model data
combined with radar and satellite indicate the precipitation band
will translate south during the evening with even Kern County
getting wet after 10 pm.
Models then push the band to the south overnight and out of the
area in the early morning. Total rainfall amounts projected are up
to 1.5-2.0 inches in the Yosemite Park area with lesser amounts to
around 0.50 inches in the Southern Sierra. For the San Joaquin
Valley rainfall amounts up to 0.50" are possible along the
foothills of Fresno County. As for snow, the airmass is very warm,
thus snow levels will remain in the 8000-9000 foot range through
much of the night and then fall to around 7000 by the time the
precipitation ends Sunday morning. At elevations above 10000 feet
1-2 feet of snow is likely near Yosemite with far lesser amounts
to the south.
For Monday it looks dry as a break in the moist feed from the
Pacific occurs. By Tuesday in the fast west to east flow pattern,
moisture returns to the northern part of the forecast area as the
"river" moves onshore.
The pattern into the middle of next week looks rather unsettled
with models all bringing a trough of low pressure into the coast
by Thursday. The main disagreements in the models at this time is
the amount of possible precipitation with the GFS being very wet
and widespread with rain and mountain snow while the Euro and
Canadian models are drier. Will need to keep an eye on just how
much moisture moves into the region as there certainly is plenty
of available moisture between here and Hawaii.
In the San Joaquin Valley and southern Sierra foothills, areas of
rain developing in the central valley moving south tonight into the
south valley with MVFR and local IFR conditions probable in low
clouds, improving conditions after 18z sunday.
In the southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, widespread
MVFR with areas of mountain obscuring IFR conditions in
precipitation. gusty winds over sierra ridges and below passes of
the tehachapi mountains until 18z sunday.
VFR conditions will prevail across the Kern County deserts through
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Sunday December 11 2016... Firepalce/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.