Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXUS66 KHNX 301040
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
340 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR ONE MORE DAY OF DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BETTER CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR IMAGERY INDICATING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 30N/127W. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK EAST AND
REACH THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FOR OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO PROVIDE FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY TODAY AND PROVIDE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS A MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS.

MEANWHILE...WV IMAGERY IS INDICATING A COLD AND MOIST UPPER LOW
CENTER NEAR 52N/144W. THE 06Z WRF LIKE IT/S PRECEDING RUNS IS
INDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CA
COAST TODAY AND FRIDAY AND DIG A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL CA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN TERMS OF IT/S TIMING AND BRING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ON
SATURDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT MAY IMPACT THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE BY SATURDAY MORNING
THEN TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR MOST
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCER IN SEVERAL MONTHS WITH QPF
PROGS INDICATING MOST OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WILL PICK UP
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
WITH HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN FROM 8000 TO 9000 FEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWER TO 5000 TO 6000 FEET BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW FALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM FROM 5 TO 10 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET
AND FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA FROM KINGS CANYON NORTHWARD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATRUDAY AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT STORM OF
THE SEASON. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS ON
SUNDAY IN THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS BELOW THE PASSES OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A COOL AND DRY NORTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN. THE
MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE INTO CA ON MONDAY THEN SHIFT IT SLOWLY
INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY
TUESDAY. WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE...FOG COULD BECOME
PROBLEMATIC IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-30       91:1887     57:1975     60:1983     27:1972
KFAT 10-31       90:1949     57:1974     61:2008     32:1972
KFAT 11-01       88:1966     58:1935     61:2008     33:1971

KBFL 10-30       92:1939     59:1996     66:1899     29:1971
KBFL 10-31       92:1949     55:1923     65:2008     33:1935
KBFL 11-01       90:1966     58:2003     64:2008     30:1907
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CAZ096.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DS

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.