Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 252043
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
143 PM PDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE SIERRA
NEVADA WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN
SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE REGION...READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. AS OF 1 PM...TEMPERATURES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND IN THE DESERT WERE IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S...THE FOOTHILLS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80...WITH
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM ANOTHER 5 OR SO DEGREES BEFORE
SUNSET AND WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.

IN THE PAST HOUR...SHOWERS BEGAN TO FORM ALONG THE SIERRA CREST IN
MARIPOSA...MADERA...AND FRESNO COUNTIES...WITH NO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY AS OF YET. THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD GRIP ON THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IT SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTH INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE HRRR...HIGH RES
ARW...AND NMM ALL INDICATE THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF TULARE
COUNTY SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF ACTIVITY GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WAS OBSERVED ON THE LAPS 20Z CAPE
ANALYSIS...GENERALLY BETWEEN 300 AND 600 J/KG...WITH ISOLATED
AREAS JUST OVER 800 J/KG. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH MAINLY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. 500 MB
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE EACH DAY...RESULTING IN A
SUBTLE WARMING TREND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES EACH
DAY. SIERRA NEVADA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE AND
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAKING THESE TWO DAYS
THE WARMEST OF THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY...WITH SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND DESERT
LOCATIONS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW SPOTS MAY EVEN
HIT THE CENTURY MARK. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 8 AN 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF MAY. ON A SIDE NOTE...IF
BAKERSFIELD AND FRESNO DO NOT HIT 100 DEGREES ON SATURDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE FIRST TIME BOTH CITIES HAVE NOT WARMED TO 100 DEGREES
IN THE MONTH OF MAY SINCE 2012.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND A COOLING
TREND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CONTINUING
THROUGH 03Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-25      102:1890     59:1906     68:2014     42:1980
KFAT 05-26      103:1974     66:1946     68:2014     40:1953
KFAT 05-27      104:1974     55:1971     69:1896     46:1998

KBFL 05-25      106:1982     58:2008     77:1982     39:1893
KBFL 05-26      107:1951     68:1998     72:1979     40:1918
KBFL 05-27      106:1974     66:1971     75:1974     42:1917
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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