Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 102225
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
325 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING A FEW DEGREES BY FRIDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL LINGER NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEED HIGH LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTN.
THE SIERRA CREST HAPPENS TO BE RIGHT ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY WHERE
THERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO FUEL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
TODAY. WINDS ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTN
AND SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THIS MONSOONAL MOISTURE EAST OF OUR CWA.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS FORECAST JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
700-500 MB BOUNDARY LAYER RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESP NEAR YOSEMITE...
SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA. BY AND LARGE...FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH LITTLE MORE THAN
CUMULUS BUILDUP OVER THE HIGH SIERRA.

IN THE MEANTIME...A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS HAS SETTLED INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THANKS IN PART TO THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH HAS HELPED DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER
AND INTENSIFY THE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. THAT ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH AND JUST
BELOW THE COASTAL RANGES TONIGHT IN ADDITION TO BRINGING OCEAN COOLED
AIR INTO THE SJ VLY. THIS IS A PATTERN THAT WILL STAY WITH US THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WE CAN EXPECT A RECURRENCE OF GUSTY BREEZES BELOW
THE PASSES AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL MARINE INTRUSIONS
IN THE SJ VLY. THE WINDS MAY ALSO KICK UP SOME DUST ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE VALLEY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BLOW THROUGH THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN PASSES THE NEXT TWO EVENINGS. FRIDAY WILL BE OUR COOLEST
DAY AND PROBABLY OUR ONLY REPRIEVE FROM TRULY HOT WEATHER DURING THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BUILDS WESTWARD INTO
CA. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL RETURN TO THE SJ VLY AS EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EACH DAY THEREAFTER THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY WILL
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN THE SJ VLY AS THE
FOUR CORNERS RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO THE TROPICS AND
ALLOW A PATHWAY FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO COME BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR. ITS ARRIVAL WILL MOST LIKELY BE HERALDED BY ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT MONDAY. A
DEEPER SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST
OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER WITH A
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER ANY THUNDERSTORMS SURVIVE THEIR WAY
INTO THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...BUT A SE FLOW ALOFT COULD
CERTAINLY STEER THEM IN THAT DIRECTION ANYTIME DURING THIS PERIOD.
THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH WITH INTEREST. AT THE
VERY LEAST...DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM HIGH ELEVATION THUNDERSTORMS COULD
MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND EASTERN HALF OF THE SJ VLY EACH EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER NEXT
WEEK TOO AND ONLY ADD TO OUR DISCOMFORT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
BETWEEN UNTIL 03Z FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY UNTIL 09Z
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-10      112:2008     81:1974     82:2008     54:1904
KFAT 07-11      110:1961     82:1888     78:2002     52:1974
KFAT 07-12      109:2012     82:1995     81:1999     54:1965

KBFL 07-10      113:1905     82:1936     85:2008     51:1914
KBFL 07-11      110:1961     83:1936     79:2002     51:1906
KBFL 07-12      113:1913     81:1995     80:1999     48:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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