Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 262323 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
323 PM PST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...AIR QUALITY ISSUES UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM ORIGINATING IN WESTERN
CANADA WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND BRING WET
WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA HELPED TO LIFT
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GENERATE CLOUDS ALONG LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AND FOOTHILLS TODAY. MEANWHILE THERE ARE HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THE STORM IS DEVELOPING OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BRING THIS
STORM SYSTEM SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE STORM WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A 100-120 KT
250 MB JET THAT CUTS UNDERNEATH THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE INROADS
INTO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR FRIDAY AND HELP GENERATE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA WHERE
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIKELY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT FRESNO COUNTY
NORTHWARD. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...USHERING COLDER AIR WITH IT AND BRINGING A
BIT MORE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL DROP A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. THIS
WILL REDUCE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOST AREAS...FOCUS THE ACTIVITY
MORE ON THE TULARE AND KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM WILL AVERAGE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WITH A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN
INCH IN THE FOOTHILLS. THIS IS A COLDER STORM THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING ABOVE 6000 FEET FRIDAY...AND
LOWERING TO NEAR 4000 FEET SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...BUT DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. SAME GOES FOR
THE VALLEY...ANY AREAS THAT GET THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ON SATURDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE 4000 FEET FROM 4 PM FRIDAY THROUGH
10 PM SATURDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP DOWN TO
3500 FEET IN THE SIERRA IN HEAVIER SHOWERS SATURDAY. ANOTHER
CONCERN IS IN THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 5000
FEET EARLY SATURDAY EVENING LOWERING TO 3500-4000 FEET BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY IMPACT TRAVEL WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW AT
PASS LEVEL.

AS THIS FIRST TROUGH EXITS THE REGION MONDAY...A NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING
SOUTH IN THE FLOW. THESE IMPULSES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME BUT
OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BE VERY UNSETTLED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT OVER CALIFORNIA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING A WARMING A
DRYING TREND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...INCREASING AREAS OF IFR IN
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND PRECIPITATION AFTER 15Z FRI. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 27 2015...FIREPLACE/WOOD
STOVE BURNING STATUS IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN KERN...
KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES. FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT
VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 02-26       83:1888     44:1962     53:1995     25:1971
KFAT 02-27       79:1992     45:1996     54:2006     26:1962
KFAT 02-28       79:1926     51:1971     59:1986     28:1962

KBFL 02-26       80:1992     43:1962     56:1968     30:1971
KBFL 02-27       83:1980     46:1962     58:1988     24:1893
KBFL 02-28       81:1926     49:1945     56:1968     22:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY
ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BEAN
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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