Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 241118
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
418 AM PDT Fri Mar 24 2017
An active pattern is expected for the next several days with
periods of wet weather and gusty winds. Temperatures will cool to
a little below normal this weekend into early next week.
Satellite imagery shows the approaching trough off the Pacific
Northwest coast with an impressive baroclinic zone. A rich plume
of moisture up to 1.5" TPW (>200% of normal) is aimed towards the
Northern California coast. Radar shows light rain moving over the
SF Bay are at this time, but the models have slowed the arrival of
the frontal band into central California until later this morning.
Precip will slowly spread south through the day, but areas south
of Fresno County will likely stay dry until the late aftn/evening.
Precip may become heavy at times over the Sierra from Yosemite NP
to Kings Canyon NP this afternoon and early evening. Snow levels
will be around 7-8 thousand feet for the bulk of the event, then
lower to around 6000 ft overnight into Saturday morning when mainly
light showers are expected. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued for the Sierra above 7000 feet from Yosemite to Kings Canyon,
from 11 AM this morning through 11 AM Saturday morning. 4 to 8
inches of snow is possible down to 7000 feet with local amounts
around 12 inches over the higher elevations. Light accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches are possible down to 6000 ft. Below the snow
line, rainfall amounts in the Sierra and foothills of 1-1.5" are
expected. The San Joaquin Valley can expect up to 1/3 of an inch
rainfall from Fresno County north, but only a few hundredths to a
tenth of an inch down to the southern SJ Valley in Kern County.
Scattered light showers will remain possible Saturday afternoon
then weak short wave ridging briefly moves in for dry conditions
Saturday night into Sunday morning.
The next trough is expected to bring more precipitaton starting
Sunday afternoon. But the models have trended weaker with this
system for central CA as most of the moisture stays over NorCal
and into Nevada. Most of the precip will occur Sunday night with
just a few light showers lingering into Monday. Stronger ridging
will bring dry weather and a warming trend Tues-Wed. Yet another
trough may affect the area by next Thursday, but the models are
still struggling with this one, so confidence is medium at best.
Temperatures will cool to a little below late March normals this
weekend into early next week. Highs next Wednesday are forecast to
climb to slightly above normal under the ridge, then possibly down
again to end the week if the trough does indeed pan out.
An onshore surface flow will provide breezy to gusty conditions
at times for the next several days. Gusts to around 30 mph are
possible along the west side of the SJ Valley this aftn/eve. Gusts
to around 40 mph are expected in the Kern County Mountains and
Desert, strongest through and below passes. Guidance suggest next
Monday could see even stronger gusts.
Rain will impact the terminals generally after 18z...with possible
MVFR visibility. Otherwise...moderate southeasterly winds will
develop late this morning and continue into the evening hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT
Saturday ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096.