Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 240954
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
254 AM PDT MON OCT 24 2016
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move across
the area today. A brief warming trend will be seen tomorrow and
Wednesday. Then, another storm system will bring a better chance
for rain and high elevation snow in central California by late
Tropical moisture continues to play a big role in supporting
showers and isolated thunderstorm development this morning. A
subtropical jet max is edging into southeastern Kern County which
will continue the showers and thunderstorms out in the desert this
The mid latitude low off the Pacific Northwest will shift the
subtropical jet east throughout the day. This will allow storms to
come to an end in that area this afternoon.
Another area of showers and thunderstorms exist across the
northern half of the forecast area this morning. This area is
expected to continue into the evening as short wave energy moves
across the area.
A jet max associated with the aforemention mid latitude low will
nose into NorCal this evening late. This will keep some potential
for a continuation of showers mainly across the northern edge of
the forecast area.
The center of low will edge north overnight as a fairly robust jet
max develops on the back side of it. This will allow the trough to
dig southward across the central pacific Tuesday into Wednesday.
This will amplify the shortwave ridging over the western states,
which will allow for things to warm up some.
This warming trend will be short lived however, thanks to the
southern energy of the trough which will be pinched off Wednesday
and slide eastward Thursday. There is a good hint of this system
picking up some additional moisture from the subtropics on
Thursday night into Friday that system will move across the area
as an open wave, adding additional support for showers,
especially on Friday. Ensembles member spread continues to
decrease, especially in the amount of precipitation to expect. This
all increases confidence for a wet system late week.
Then yet another Eastern Pacific system develops into the
weekend, which will keep some mention of precipitation in the
forecast into at least Halloween. Stay Tuned.
MVFR ceilings with areas of IFR and terrain obscurations in showers
and isolated thunderstorms will continue over the Sierra and Kern
County mountains through 00Z Tuesday, with lingering showers
continuing north of Tulare County from 00Z to 12Z Tuesday. Expect
local MVFR and IFR in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
elsewhere in the central CA interior through 00Z Tuesday, with
mainly VFR conditions thereafter.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning CAZ095.