Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 172214
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
314 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW NORMAL BEGINNING THURSDAY AND RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN AND DESERT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST HAS KEPT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF ODILE
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. THERE IS STILL A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE KERN COUNTY DESERT NEAR EDWARDS AFB OR OVER THE
CREST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR YOSEMITE IN THE MORNING AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MAINLY NORTH OF
KINGS CANYON IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO USHER COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH HIGHS DROPPING 5-10 DEGREES
THURSDAY...BRINGING THEM BACK DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

THE TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND WILL
REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FRIDAY. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST.

MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS AGREE THAT WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER
THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THAT WILL PREVENT THE RIDGE
FROM BECOMING STRONG. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
BUT ONCE AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
TO OUR NORTH...POSSIBLY BRUSHING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWFA.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 09-17      105:1979     73:1950     74:1984     48:1965
KFAT 09-18      107:1913     67:1963     78:1984     48:1978
KFAT 09-19      105:1922     70:1989     75:1984     44:1978

KBFL 09-17      108:1913     74:1993     76:1979     45:1915
KBFL 09-18      104:1913     69:1967     73:1984     45:1908
KBFL 09-19      104:1939     69:1989     73:2009     39:1908
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FW...BEAN
AVN...ANDERSEN
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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