Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 050754
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
255 AM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Today through Tuesday...

.NEAR TERM /Today and tonight/...Stationary frontal boundary situated
across se Ga early this morning with area of showers over interior
se Ga...and isolated thunderstorms over the Fl panhandle and sw Ga.
Models show frontal boundary sinking south to near the Fl- Ga line
this afternoon as first weak wave moves by to the ne. A stronger
surface low over the western Gulf associated with upper low now over
south Texas will bring another surge of showers with isolated
thunderstorms into the Suwannee Valley and interior se Ga late this
afternoon into tonight. Shear will greatly increase tonight as upper
low becomes an open wave and moves ne into the se states. Surface
based instability overnight still looks to be weak due to ongoing
precip. The best chances for storms tonight will be over our western
zones...from the Suwannee Valley into interior se Ga. A few strong
to marginally severe storms will be possible late tonight producing
strong winds. Warm and humid conditions for today and tonight with
temperatures well above normal.

.SHORT TERM /Tue-Wed Night/...

Tuesday...Strong dynamics will push along stalled frontal boundary
across inland SE GA and the Suwannee River Valley of north FL with
widespread showers and potential severe storms during the morning
hours and numerous showers and scattered strong storms elsewhere.
Isolated Tornadoes will be possible with supercell activity along
and just to the south of the stalled frontal boundary. During the
afternoon the trailing frontal passage will continue to bring
scattered showers/isolated storms but mainly strong/gusty W/SW winds
at 15-25G35mph that will push Max Temps to around 80 degrees area-
wide with near record high temps possible.

Tue Night...Front pushes SE of the region with partial clearing and
temps falling into the 50s overnight as winds shift to the W/NW and
weaken to 5-10 mph.

Wed & Wed Night...Weak High pressure at the surface ahead of next
frontal system approaching from the West. Expect generally partly to
mostly clear skies with periods of high clouds at times. Max temps
still slightly above normal in the upper 60s to middle 70s and lows
ranging from the mid/upper 40s inland to lower/middle 50s coast.

.LONG TERM /Thu-Sun/...

Thu...Long-range models still trying to come into better agreement
with secondary frontal passage that will bring widely scattered
showers to the region with Pops in the 20-30% range. Max temps will
range from the mid 60s to lower 70s as winds become NWly and
increase to 10-20mph. Temps will fall off into the 30s/40s Thu Night
with wind chills falling into the 20s/30s by Friday Morning.

Fri...Skies becoming Mostly Sunny as cold high pressure builds north
of the region but will be coldest day of the new winter season with
Max Temps only around 50 degrees. This will set the stage for a
light freeze event over inland areas by early Sat AM with upper 20s
inland and 30s elsewhere.

Sat/Sun...Models have High pressure building N and NE of the region
over the Carolinas and this will usher in NE flow off the Atlantic
and a slow modification of the local temps with Highs in the 50s on
Sat and 60s on Sunday and an increased chance at coastal showers.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions early this morning with mostly mid and
high cigs at TAF sites. Stratocumulus clouds will continue to
develop around 3 to 5kft becoming bkn-ovc by 12z this morning.
MVFR cigs expected this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers
will develop this afternoon and increase to prevailing conditions
after 20z. Low level shear possible late tonight and Tuesday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...Warm front just north of the waters will sink south to
near the Ga-Fl border this afternoon shifting southerly winds to
the ne over the Ga waters. Front will move back north tonight
with increasing southerly winds. SCEC conditions likely tonight
with Advisory conditions developing early Tuesday morning as sw
winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front. Front will move
across the waters Tuesday evening ending the chance for showers
and thunderstorms. Weak high pressure will build in bringing
decreasing winds and seas for Wednesday. Another cold front will
increase winds late Thursday through Friday with another Small
Craft Advisory likely.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and moderate on Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record High Max Temps Today 12/05...
JAX 83/2013...GNV 84/1994...AMG 83/2013...SSI 78/1983

Record High Min Temps Today 12/05...
JAX 66/1982...GNV 68/1941...AMG 63/1998...SSI 69/1982

Record High Max Temps Tuesday 12/06
JAX 83/2013...GNV 84/2013...AMG 82/2013...SSI 79/1972

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  66  79  52 /  80  90  70   0
SSI  72  66  79  56 /  80  80  70   0
JAX  78  70  82  55 /  70  80  60  10
SGJ  79  70  82  57 /  70  70  60  10
GNV  79  71  80  54 /  60  70  70  10
OCF  81  71  80  56 /  50  70  70  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess


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