Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 221417
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1017 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...Scattered Storms and Heat Indices near 105 degrees this
afternoon...

.UPDATE...
Transition day as High Pressure Ridge from the Wrn Atlc extends
across the forecast area aloft and this will tend to suppress
convection somewhat but morning soundings and satellite derived
products still supporting widespread Precipitable Water Amounts
close to 2 inches that will still allow for at least Scattered to
possibly Numerous showers/storms to develop on the sea breeze
fronts as they move slowly inland. Steering flow from the south
will push stronger storms generally from the south to north at
10-15 mph while still warm mid-level temps at -4 to -6C around
500mb will not support much in the way of severe storms still
expect strong storms with gusty winds/frequent lightning and
storm movement and high moisture content supports locally heavy
rainfall. Best storm coverage will be just inland from the I-95
corridor westward to the I-75 corridor as sea breezes meet.
Diurnal heating expected to push inland Max Temps into the lower
90s inland and upper 80s at the coast and this combined with
lingering tropical moisture at the surface will create peak heat
indices around 105 degrees this afternoon. Tonight will feature
storms fading after sunset with all activity ending by midnight
and skies becoming mostly clear/partly cloudy with muggy
conditions still continuing with lows generally in the lower to
mid 70s inland and upper 70s at the coast. On Friday as drier
airmass aloft over South FL pushes northward into North FL expect
only isolated storm activity possible across NE FL and widely
scattered across inland SE GA with hot temps into the 90s and high
heat indices close to 105 degrees once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS have popped up at KGNV and for now expect rest of
TAF sites to maintain SCT decks in the 2000-3000 ft range this
morning but a brief MVFR CIG will be possible. Otherwise scattered
convection expected this afternoon argues to keep VCTS or VCSH at
all TAF sites as the sea breezes develop and push inland. Activity
still expected to fade during the 00z-02z time frame with VFR
conditions tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly flow around 15 knots with seas 3-5 ft through tonight.
A slight increase is possible Friday into Saturday to 15-20 knots
and SCEC headlines may be required briefly at times.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk in the sideshore southerly flow and
afternoon SE sea breezes. Breakers in the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  73  94  72 /  40  30  30  20
SSI  86  77  87  76 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  91  74  93  73 /  40  20  10  10
SGJ  89  74  89  75 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  93  72  93  72 /  60  50  10  10
OCF  92  72  93  73 /  50  40  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Hess/Nelson



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