Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
FXUS62 KJAX 200810
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
310 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017
.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...
Upper level heights will build across the region through tonight
ahead of an upper trough/low digging southeast across Texas.
Surface high pressure will build eastward across the mid Atlantic
and northeastern conus coastline. Light northeasterly winds this
morning will become easterly this afternoon.
Patchy to areas of fog and low stratus this morning will scatter
out by the late morning, with mostly sunny skies prevailing
through the day. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s along the
east coast due to the onshore flow, with upper 70s to lower 80s
inland. Cirrus clouds will increase from the west tonight ahead of
the upper trough. Patchy to areas of fog is possible across the
eastern half of the region where cloud cover will be less. Lows
will be in the 50s to lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM (Tuesday through Wednesday night)...
A deep layer ridge over the area shifts east as a closed low moves
southeast over the Gulf of Mexico. Differences continue between
the GFS and ECMWF regarding the movement and intensity of the
closed low. The ECMWF is deeper and and tracks it across south
Florida by early Thursday morning whereas the GFS is somewhat
weaker and tracks it to just north of the Cuba coast. Have leaned
towards the persistent GFS which keeps the bulk of deeper moisture
well south. Dry conditions will continue all areas on Tuesday
with low end chance pops across the far southern zones Wed and Wed
night. Low level moisture also increases over the area which
could help produce patchy late night fog especially across inland
areas. Temps will average above normal with the warmest afternoon
readings away from the coast.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)...
The closed low tracks well south of the area on Thursday and
finally opens up and lifts northeast over the western Atlantic
Friday. Have continued with low end chance pops for the far
southern zones Thursday and slight chance pops everywhere Friday.
The next cold front moves through on Saturday bringing a low end
chance of rain to the area followed by slightly cooler and drier
conditions Sunday as a surface high builds north of the area.
Temps to continue above normal through the period.
Patchy fog and low stratus is expected at the TAF sites late
tonight into the mid morning today. VFR conditions with sunny
skies is then expected by the afternoon. Light winds will become
east northeasterly 5-10 knots today, and then become light again
in the evening. High clouds will increase across the region
towards the end of the TAF period.
High pressure will build across the mid Atlantic and northeastern
conus coastline today. High pressure will then settle east of the
Carolinas by the middle of the week, and remain there through the
end of the week. Northeast flow 10-15 knots today will become
southeasterly Tuesday through the end of the week. Seas 2-4 feet
are expected through the middle of the week. Seas may approach SCA
criteria by the end of the week.
Rip Currents: Low risk today. Low to moderate risk on Tuesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 78 54 78 59 / 0 0 10 20
SSI 71 56 75 61 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 76 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 74 59 76 62 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 80 56 80 57 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 81 59 81 58 / 0 0 0 10