Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 130130
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS PRESSING GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING MARKED BY A DEW PT
GRADIENT AND PRECEDED BY A FEW BANDS OF LOW/MID LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS...ONE MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SE GA COAST AND THE
OTHER DRIFTING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL FL. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED WITH MILD PRE-FRONTAL TEMPS IN THE LOW/60S. MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE THIS EVENING WAS THE BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES...NOW DECREASING TO AROUND 20-25 MPH
ONLY NOW TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST. 00Z JAX SOUNDING INDICATED
30 KTS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY AT TIMES UNDER THE PASSING STRATOCUMULUS...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 40S OVERNIGHT TRAILING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WINDS NEAR 10 MPH BY DAYBREAK OVER SE GA AND ALONG THE COAST...WHICH
WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS IN THE LOW/MID 30S.

SUNNY SKIES UNDER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT WITH
HIGH TEMPS RANGING IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED BREEZY NW WINDS BY MID-
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...THEN WINDS DECREASING MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY WSW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL SHIFT NNW AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
MID-MORNING WITH GUSTS NEARING 18-20 KTS SAT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN NEAR 8-10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THUS WILL NOT NEED
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL 2 KFT WINDS WILL NEAR 30
KTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WNW WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS NEAR SHORE TO
20-25 KTS OFFSHORE WILL IMPACT THE WATERS TONIGHT AHEAD OF AND
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINED OVER OF
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ADVISORY OFFSHORE. MIXING DOWN OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT COULD BRING
GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUED TO MENTION OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED SAT. INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK ON
SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR BREEZY NNW WINDS
TOMORROW DEVELOPING BY MID-MORNING. SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BY MIDDAY...THEN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN MAGNITUDES AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WITH
MIN RHS NEAR 20-30% INLAND COULD CREATE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  42  53  35  50 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  44  56  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  45  55  40  58 /   0   0   0  20
GNV  45  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  62  36  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/STRUBLE/WALSH


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