Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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984
FXUS62 KJAX 291826
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
226 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS MOVING SLOWLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A BIT OF SEA FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
FLAGLER BEACH...PULLING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA LATE
AFTERNOON ON THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT
AND LOWS WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND UP THE
EASTERN SEA BOARD IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...IMPARTING A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE INLAND...AND
SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...
MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
S FL THROUGH MON AS THE NEXT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION. LIGHT STEERING FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS OVER NE FL
WILL ENABLE BOTH SEA BREEZES TO MOVE INLAND SAT/SUN. STRONGER SW
FLOW MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A MORE DOMINANT WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE REGIME. ADVERTISED A LOW 20-30% OF SAT EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 301 WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR TOWARD
THE ATLANTIC SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SUNDAY MOISTURE INCREASES
WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.6-1.7" UNDER A STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW
WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF 30-40% INDICATED ACROSS SE GA WITH
20-30% OVER INLAND NE FL DUE TO SEA BREEZE MERGERS UNDER STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE. MON INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OF 30-40% ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES DUE TO FRONT ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND HIGH
MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL AS MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS S FL. TEMPS WILL RANGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S.

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI...
TUE-WED...INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OF 40-50% DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND STRONGER FORCING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. 12Z GFS40 WAS FASTER THAN 00Z ECMWF WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WED AFTN. CONSENSUS OUTPUT YIELDED DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL FALL FROM ABOVE CLIMO TUE TO
NEAR TO JUST BELOW CLIMO WED. A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP
LATE TUE JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

THU-FRI...DRIER AND COOLER WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS UNDER DEEP LAYER
NW FLOW AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE BUILDS AND PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THU. A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW FRI AS THE RIDGE
CENTER BUILDS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS TEMPS MODERATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KGNV...AND ADDED VCSH GROUP.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND THEN STALL. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION SATURDAY INLAND SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  91  68  88 /  10  30  30  40
SSI  70  83  71  80 /   0  10  10  30
JAX  66  90  70  87 /   0  10  10  30
SGJ  70  85  71  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  66  90  68  87 /  10  30  30  30
OCF  67  90  68  88 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

KENNEDY/ENYEDI/WALKER



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