Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 300215
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1015 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...CHANCE OF PASSING LIGHT COASTAL SHOWERS TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTED OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COAST WITH GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF VERY
LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY . SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
HRRR/NARRE/ARW/NMM WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY FLIRTING WITH COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT THEN ACTIVITY
PROGRESSING FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH
SUNRISE. EVENING JAX RAOB CONTINUED TO SHOW EXTENSIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THUS ADVERTISED ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT WITH NO MENTION OF TSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WERE ON
TRACK TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID 70 ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN/ATLANTIC COAST UNDER ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS ONSHORE FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE MVFR FOG AT KVQQ/KGNV
OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT COASTAL SITES
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.
LOWERED FORECAST NWPS MODEL GUIDANCE BY ABOUT 0.5 FT BASED ON
EVENING SEA OBSERVATIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  87  69  89 /  10  40  10  30
SSI  73  82  72  83 /  40  40  30  20
JAX  68  85  70  87 /  30  40  20  20
SGJ  73  83  72  84 /  40  40  30  20
GNV  66  89  67  91 /  10  40  30  40
OCF  68  89  69  91 /  10  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/STRUBLE/WALSH


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