Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 182004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
Issued by National Weather Service KEY WEST FL
304 PM EST Mon Dec 18 2017

.NEAR TERM (Rest of today through Tuesday)...
Partly to mostly cloudy conditions prevail across much of southern
Georgia and northern Florida today. Sunshine is most abundant to
the south. Currently, air temperatures generally range from the
lower 70s over southeastern Georgia to the lower 80s across the
central Florida Peninsula. Isolated rain showers are moving
eastward across portions of southern Georgia, in association with
a stalled frontal system. A surface high pressure cell extends
from the western North Atlantic across central Florida to the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle southwest to west breezes
prevail across most of northern Florida. Surface high pressure is
expected to weaken and set up nearly directly over northern
Florida, with ideal conditions for widespread fog, some dense
tonight through at least mid-morning Tuesday.

.Short Term.../Tuesday night through Thursday night/...

A high pressure area will weaken gradually while shifting east-
southwestward Tuesday night. Fog will be likely again during the
late night-early morning hours, with above normal low temperatures
in the mid/upper 50s inland to near 60 coast. A southern-stream
short-wave trough and associated cold front will advance eastward
across portions of MS/AL/GA/SC on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An associated plume of richer moisture and forcing for ascent will
migrate across the service Wednesday night, with increased cloud
cover and scattered showers, with a few strong thunderstorms
possible. Cooler conditions will develop following the frontal
passage late Wednesday night or early Thursday, with low
temperatures Thursday night ranging from near 50 inland and
Georgia to upper 50s at the coast.


.LONG TERM.../Friday through Christmas Day/...

Above-average temperatures are likely Friday, as southwesterly
winds develop ahead of another cold front. This front will weaken,
and then likely stall over southern Georgia or northern Florida
over the weekend as associated upper forcing abandons the low-
level feature. Nevertheless, slight shower chances will be
retained given above-average moisture and residual frontal
convergence. Medium-range models suggest a more robust, and
cleaner, frontal passage on Christmas day or night, with some
uncertainty regarding timing.


.AVIATION...Low stratus already affecting most of the TAF sites
with MVFR cigs with lowering of visibilities later this evening.
These will reach LIFR criteria during the overnight and early
morning hours at most of the terminals, if not all. Fog is
expected to prevail through the morning hours slowly burning after
sunrise or mid-morning. Winds will be generally from the
southwest at around 5 knots.


Light to gentle southwest to west breezes will persist tonight,
with southwest winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots on Wednesday,
and 15 to 20 knots Wednesday night across offshore zones, in
advance of an approaching cold front. The weak front will push
south across the coastal waters on Thursday, with turning out of
the north-northeast near 15 knots or less.


AMG  61  77  59  75 /  20  10  10  30
SSI  61  72  60  71 /  10   0   0  20
JAX  62  78  59  79 /  10   0   0  10
SGJ  62  77  60  79 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  60  80  57  79 /  10   0  10  10
OCF  60  81  58  81 /  10   0   0   0




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