Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 220935
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
435 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUE THROUGH WED...

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...SFC WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION EXTENDING FROM CROSS CITY ON THE GULF COAST TO ST.
AUGUSTINE ON THE EAST COAST. FRONT SHOULD BE UP INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA BY MONDAY EVENING. AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. HEAVIEST RAIN BAND WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...SHIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF OF AN INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES LOCATED ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TODAY WITH PATCHY LIGHT FOG THIS
MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S FOR SE GA AND UPPER 60S/MID 70S IN NE FL.

.TONIGHT....WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL
AL/GA AS RAIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DECREASES AND WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL
REMAIN ISOLATED. WITH SE GA NOW IN THE WARM SECTOR MORE MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NE FL
TEMPS WILL STAY PERSISTENT DROPPING IN THE LOW 60S TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM..
.
TUE THROUGH WED NIGHT...MODELS HAVE AGAIN SLOWED THE PROGRESS OF THE
ENTIRE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED
IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. TUE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN PLACING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE
FL WITH LESS THAN 20% RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE WITH DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR
KEEPING CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MINIMAL. TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND RATES INCREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN TIER WHEN
ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS/PSEUDO-WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE GULF COAST REGION INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY AND PARTS OF SE GA TUE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED WITH THE
PHASING OF STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND JET DYNAMICS
INCLUDING A LOW LEVEL 850 MB JET OF 40-50 KTS PUMPING GULF MOISTURE
INLAND. WAVES OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOWER CONUS. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF A MYRIAD OF HAZARDS INCLUDING GUSTY WINDS...HAIL
AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES. THE ENTIRE COMPLEX OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED
DOWNSTREAM AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE. IN ADDITIONAL TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE WED AFTN INTO WED EVENING ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS GIVEN STRONG SHEAR
IN PLACE. PRECIP WILL PRESS ESE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT
WITH TRAILING SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS UPSTREAM UNTIL THU MORNING.

THU & THU NIGHT...POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL PUSH SE OVER NE FL DURING
THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVER SE GA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
COOL INTO THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO LOWER 70S
OVER NE FL. MINS THU NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION. INCLUDED AREAS OF FROST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS
GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

MODERATING TEMPERATURES FRI/SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS DIVERGE IN THE TIMING OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK THUS CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT
14% OR LESS FOR NOW UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER NLY FLOW SUN/MON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI/SAT THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS AT ALL DUVAL COUNTY SITES WILL REMAIN IN THE LIFR
TO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IMPROVED CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN AROUND
SUNSET. VLIFR WILL PERSIST FOR PERIODS THROUGH MID MORNING AT VQQ.
BOUNDARY HAS REACHED NEAR THE GNV TERMINAL CAUSING CIGS TO LIFT TO
VFR CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE
MORNING JUMPING FROM MVFR TO VFR AT ALL SITES. PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING
VSBYS...TEMPO HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR INTERMITTENT DEGRADATION IN
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SITUATE ITSELF ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TO THE
NORTH OVER THE GA WATERS AND SSE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OVER THE FL
WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
PASSES AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS:A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  55  72  63 /  70  50  80 100
SSI  61  59  68  63 /  80  50  40  70
JAX  68  61  75  65 /  80  40  30  70
SGJ  70  63  74  66 /  80  40  20  50
GNV  72  63  76  66 /  80  50  30  70
OCF  76  63  78  67 /  70  40  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/








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