Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO


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