Area Forecast Discussion
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604
FXUS62 KKEY 121848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
148 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF CHAFF STREAKS ON KBYX DOPPLER RADAR.
OTHERWISE...SHALLOW CUMULUS IS FAVORING THE STRAITS WITH THE ISLAND
CHAIN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR AROUND 70
DEGREES WITH A GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE.

A FLATTENED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ALIGNED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW PRESSURE IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL STRENGTHEN
WHILE BEING LIFTED QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY...THEN
GETS BRIDGED BY ANOTHER VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING DOWN
THE MS VALLEY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE STARVED FOR MOISTURE DURING
THIS TRANSITION...AND FEEL NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM EITHER OUR ONGOING
FORECAST AND THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BACK FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...AND THEN ACCELERATE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. FLOW VEERS
AGAIN TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...AND THEN FURTHER TO THE EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A SLIGHT
MENTION OF MEASURABLE RAIN. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTH/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
TRAILING FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY. WILL KEEP OUR RAIN CHANCE PEAKED DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...AT 40 PERCENT...AND THEN BACK TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
FRONT...LASTING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO MENTION OF RAIN FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZE WILL BACK STEADILY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN ACCELERATE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN MOST WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THEN...AND AN ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR SOME OF THE OFFSHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATER THIS
WEEKEND...AGAIN KEEPING THE THREAT FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE STRAITS. MODERATING WINDS TURNING THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL STEADILY CLOCK TO THE NORTH BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE KEYS AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z/13TH. GENTLE
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. MODERATE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL
EMERGE SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING...THUS
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR NIL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...IN THE YEAR
1982...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE 85F OF WAS RECORDED. THE
LAST TIME KEY WEST OBSERVED A TEMPERATURE OF 85F OR WARMER WAS BACK
ON NOVEMBER THE 20TH 2015...WITH A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  63  73  62  74 / 0 0 -  -
MARATHON  61  73  60  74 / 0 0 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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