Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250807
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
307 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Only echoes on the Key West radar are from the Cuban land breeze
and well south of the area. Low stratus has been meandering around
South Florida since this afternoon, and has developed over the
western Florida Straits over the past few hours. Winds are
northwest to north less than 5 knots at the island terminals, and
near 10 knots at the marine reporting stations at this hour. A
large upper low near Bermuda, is sliding northeast and away from
the eastern United States. The next upper low is moving through
the Great Lakes and has a trough bending south to the northern
Gulf of Mexico.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
winds should mix out the low stratus layer should dissolve by
sunrise. The weak pressure pattern will persist through tonight,
winds will decrease during the day. The trough mentioned above
will move eastward through Sunday morning, with an area of high
pressure building in over the Deep South. Winds will turn back to
the north on Sunday, then gradually to the east while increasing
Sunday night. Expect east to southeast winds with a slight chance
of rain Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
Will keep a low end chance of showers on Tuesday due to speed
convergence in the low levels, and a slightly better vertical
profile. The next trough will drop off the Colorado Front Range
by midweek. A trough will move rapidly across the eastern United
States through Thursday night. High pressure will build in over
the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of this trough. This ridge will
increase winds while clocking around from south on Thursday, to
north and increasing by Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
No advisories or cautionary statements are expected through
Sunday night. High pressure will build across the southeastern
United States late Sunday. Winds will shift to the east to
southeast Sunday afternoon through Monday night. A small craft
advisory may be required for the Florida Straits on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings are likely at EYW and MTH late tonight into Saturday
morning. VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH Saturday
afternoon. Sustained west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots
expected from just off the surface to about 3,000 feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1874, the high
temperature in Key West was 87 degrees. This set the daily record
for maximum temperature measured in Key West on February 25th, a
record which still stands 143 years later. In addition, this high
temperature of 87 degrees is the maximum temperature ever observed
in Key West during the month of February. Temperature records at Key
West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  80  69  81  69 / 0 0 -  -
Marathon  81  69  82  73 / 0 0 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...........BWC
Aviation/Nowcasts/Climate....BS

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