Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270831
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
431 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - The weak western flank of a surface Atlantic ridge
extends across the Bahamas into South Florida. This is keeping
light east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and
surrounding waters. Meanwhile, the mid level ridge axis remains
across South Florida and the Keys. There are showers and
thunderstorms present across Keys waters. However, most of this
activity is located over our western waters and moving away. Other
activity is east of our area, on the Great Bahama Bank, and
heading northwest by north.

Forecast - The weak ridge near Florida will be obliterated today
as Florida warms. As a result, light southeast breezes will vary
quite a bit in direction by this afternoon. Overall, the flow is
expected to be unfavorable for shower development in the Keys, and
existing activity will have a hard time reaching the islands. Will
maintain isolated/slight chance of showers and thunderstorms today
into tonight.

The ridge axis to our north will begin to be reinforced by another
high moving off the Atlantic seaboard on Wednesday. This will help
to hold overall ridging across the broader area. However flow will
still be light, and for the most part out of the east. Lower level
flow will be somewhat favorable for island cloud line formation
Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some lower level dry air for
cloud lines to fight against. For now will maintain a low chance
of showers with isolated thunderstorms.

Through the back half of the week, the surface high will
consolidate much further north, east of the mid Atlantic, with a
ridge extending through the southeastern United States.
Consequently, surface winds will strengthen a bit, becoming gentle
to moderate out of the east to southeast. Lots of dry air through
the lower levels is expected to ride in on the southern flank of
the lower to mid level ridge. Will maintain a low chance of rain
through this period as any activity does that does manage to
develop will cover much more ground through its life cycle.

Virtually no change or trend is expected in the near normal temps
and dew points that we have been experiencing.

&&

.MARINE...
Light southeast breezes will become variable this afternoon due to
day time heating over Florida. Winds will return to east to
southeast tonight. Winds will gradually strengthen beginning
Thursday as a stronger ridge consolidates further north. A
caution may be required for portions of Florida Keys waters
beginning late Friday, and continuing off and on through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light breezes will prevail at the EYW and MTH
terminals today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  81  89  81 / 20 20 30 30
Marathon  91  81  91  81 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Collection......99

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