Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 291926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
326 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...In the middle to upper level(700-200 mb), latest
available model streamline analysis overlaid on top of satelitte
imagery as of 300 pm depict the next strong middle and upper low
pressure migrating eastwards over Western OKlahoma. This system is
betwixt two synoptic ridges within a continued typical
progressive pattern, with one ridge axis downstream situated from
the Eastern Great Lakes down to Northern Florida, and another
upstream along the West coast.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700
mb), Latest satelitte imagery overlaid with marine and land
surface observations and analysis as of 300 pm, details an area of
low pressure moving NE over Central Oklahoma swinging a cold front
south down to the Southern Rio Grande Valley. The Keys are south
of 1016 weak broad surface ridge across the peninsula.

.CURRENTLY...Skies are mostly sunny across the islands and
adjoining waters as of 300 pm, with the exception of a few showers
which formed along boundaries. The showers are south of the Middle
Florida Keys but are decreasing in intensity. Temperatures have
reached into the mid 80s across the island chain this afternoon,
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. C-man stations along the
Florida Reef are recording southeast winds near 10 knots, but only
5 to 10 knots in Florida Bay.

.SHORT TERM...Tonight thru Saturday, Surface frontal system over
Texas will move eastwards along with the aforementioned cold core
middle and upper level system, bringing severe weather eastward
towards the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday and Thursday night.
Winds have been consistently progged to increase tomorrow and
tomorrow night across the islands, given this isallobaric
gradient as the main (primary) surface low darts up towards
Chicago by Friday morning. On Friday the attendant front from this
low will gradually put the brakes on to our north across the
Florida peninsula, so moderate south winds in the morning will
become light and variable for Friday night and Saturday. Weak
lower level confluence is all that exists ahead of this dying
front, so will maintain a slight chance for showers Friday night
thru Saturday night. High temperatures in the mid 80s can be
expected, just a couple of degrees above normal for Thursday, but
given the gentle to moderate south direction, upper 80s look very
promising for Saturday. Lows will be rising from lower to mid 70s.


.LONG TERM...Saturday night thru Wednesday, a continuation of
very warm weather will continue. Another ridge will set up
Saturday night thru at least Monday night. Additional disturbances
moving by to the NW with frontal behavior becoming less of a
control, will see additional surges in the winds once again for
the second half of the weekend and early next week. Highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s will be a few degrees above


.MARINE...SCEC or SCA conditions not anticipated across the waters
tonight, but SCEC conditions are likely across the Straits
Thursday and Thursday night, possibly in Hawk Channel. Winds and
seas will let down again by late Friday, with SCEC conditions
possible again Sunday and early next week across the same areas.


VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH this afternoon through at
least Thursday morning. Sustained east to southeast winds of 10 to
15 knots expected from just off the surface to about 3,000 feet.


On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1906, 1.44 inches
of rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum
rainfall measured in Key West on March 29th, a record which still
stands 111 years later. Rainfall records at Key West date back to


Key West  73  85  74  85 / -  -  -  -
Marathon  73  86  73  87 / -  -  -  -




Upper Air/Data Collection......Vickery

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