789
FXUS62 KKEY 150254
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A weather disturbance located just offshore east of Cape Canaveral
has been producing widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms.
This afternoon and evening, several rounds of convection
associated with this feature pivoted through the Keys. The big
winners in terms of rainfall accumulation were in the Lower Keys,
where 1-2" of rain fell in a short amount of time. This mostly
occurred east of Key West, which only saw just over a tenth of an
inch. The Middle Keys between Grassy Key and Long Key also picked
up nearly 2 inches of rain but over a longer period.

This activity shifted into the distant Straits of Florida and
has all but subsided. Another round may be restarting off the
southwest mainland as outflow boundaries from earlier convection
spills out into the Gulf. Hi-res models continue to show this not
only surviving but pivoting into our waters late overnight. There
is a lesser chance elsewhere, including the island chain.
Therefore, have lowered slightly PoPs to 50 percent for the island
chain. We remain moist, albeit worked over, but we have quite a
bit of time for the overnight to recover, plus any lingering
boundaries out there that cannot be readily seen via radar.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Weak low pressure tries to develop in the vicinity of
Florida heading through the first half of the week. Initially,
the Keys will be on the southern fringe in a col region resulting
in mainly variable breezes through tonight. As the weak low
pressure area shifts to the west and high pressure builds in
behind, breezes will freshen becoming southeast to south at first,
before becoming east to southeast for mid to late week. Also,
expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms through
the middle part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

VFR conditions have returned to the island terminals and is
expected to continue through the overnight. We are expecting
showers and thunderstorms to return towards or just after sunrise
across both terminals. Any passing shower or thunderstorm will be
capable of brief gusty winds, MVFR CIG, and IFR VIS and will be
handled with future amendments as needed.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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