Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 120905
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
405 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly clear skies and light north winds, temperatures range
from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees along the island chain.
Meanwhile, local radars are void of any precipitation echoes.
Surface wise, a small region of high pressure is centered over the
southern half of the Sunshine State with a cold front draped down
into the Gulf coast region. On our marine district, winds vary
from calm at Pulaski Shoal Light to near 10 knots from Smith Shoal
Light to Carysfort Reef Light.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Little change in the overall mid and upper level pattern with
medium range guidance in good agreement through the period. A
moisture starved, absence of mid and upper level ascent along with
little in the way of low level confluence will prompt only nickle
pops to be inserted this afternoon and early tonight. Otherwise,
slightly cooler and even drier air will follow for Wednesday
through Thursday night. The coolest nights will be tonight due to
cold air advection and again Wednesday night due to radiational
cooling. Hence, temperatures will remain below normal through this
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Another cold front with limited moisture and a void of mid and
upper level lift will approach our region late Friday and pass
through our county warning area Friday night. Perhaps weak low
level confluence could generate isolated light showers, hence dime
pops will be kept for Friday and Friday night but drier air will
prompt only nickle pops for this weekend. After a brief cool down
into Saturday, temperatures will rise quickly to near 80 degrees
both Sunday and Monday while generous dime pops will be kept for
Sunday night and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Ahead of an approaching cold front, light north winds will turn
northwest and increase this afternoon with an Exercise Caution
Headline inserted for the Gulf waters. Elsewhere, increasing to
near 15 knots until cold air advection combines with a tightening
pressure gradient prompts all Keys coastal waters to have a Small
Craft should Exercise caution tonight. Winds will slacken quickly
Wednesday afternoon and especially Thursday. Otherwise, outside of
a stray light shower on the Gulf waters and perhaps the Straits of
Florida, this will be dry front.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue at EYW & MTH through 13/06z. Northerly
winds hear 5 knots or less will become north-northeast and increase
to 10-15 knots around 12/18z, with gusts near 20 knots likely this
afternoon, lasting into the evening and overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1934, the daily record low temperature of 45 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872,

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 72 64 70 55 / - - 0 0
Marathon 72 60 68 55 / - - 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN


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