Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 230357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
957 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

Forecast package is on track this evening and no changes were made.
Observations from BPT and LCH along with a quick step outside
confirming that fog development is already underway this evening
and is expected to expand in coverage through the night beneath
clear skies and nearly calm winds.





.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/


For the 02/23/17 0000 UTC TAF package.

VFR is forecast to prevail through most of the period amid a
generally clear sky and light winds. Guidance and model data
suggest the potential for fog formation during the overnight/early
morning hours. While the synoptic setup is one supportive of
radiation fog, given the over-exuberance on display for fog
and/or low CIGS last night, have inserted TEMPO MVFR at all sites
with this issuance, and will continue to monitor OB/guidance
trends through the evening.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017/

Latest UA analysis and recent WV images shows upper low east of the
area, moving toward FL. Drier air has spread into the region on its
backside, helping to scour out leftover wrap around moisture and
leaving the area under sunny skies this aftn. Overall, a rather
pleasant aftn underway with temperatures in the lower 70s acrs LA
and upper 70s/near 80 acrs southeast TX.

Benign weather expected the next few days as weak ridging aloft
transits the area. Southerly winds will redevelop by late tonight
as a narrow ridge of sfc high pres slides east, resulting in a
return to warm and more humid conditions the next couple of days.

For tonight, winds will diminish this evening. The combination of
nearly calm winds and clear skies overnight, along with residual
sfc moisture leftover from recent rains, should allow for at
least patchy fog to develop acrs much of the area. Fog could
become dense in a few locations, especially acrs central or
southern LA, but confidence not quite high enough to include in
grids attm. Otherwise, expect relatively cool, yet still abv
normal, low temperatures in the middle 50s.

Temperatures will be quite warm the next couple of aftns, running
well abv normal. Highs Thursday are expected to reach the upper
70s/near 80 with the passage of the weak mid/upper ridge. For
Friday, highs will be a degree or two warmer, topping out in the
lower 80s ahead of our next fropa.

A weak shortwave trough will cross the central CONUS Friday,
allowing a cold front to move into the area Friday evening.
Moisture will be limited with this front so PoPs will remain low.
Cooler and drier air will overspread the area for the weekend,
dropping temps back closer to normal for a day or two. However, a
progressive pattern will prevail through early next week, and this
will allow for a quick turnaround as sfc high pres moves east
with warm and moist air moving back over the area late
Sunday/early Monday.

By Monday, another trof will dig over the western CONUS, moving east
over the southern plains through Wednesday. Southwesterly flow in
advance of this feature will bring deepening moisture over the area.
This will bring a return of low end PoPs for early next week. At
this point, it does not appear to be a washout for Mardi Gras
festivities early next week but an isltd shower here or there cannot
be ruled out. A better chc for rain will arrive on Wednesday with
the next frontal passage.


Light offshore or vrbl winds will gradually become onshore through
Thursday morning as sfc high pres moves east of the area. A light to
moderate onshore flow will then prevail until the next frontal
passage Friday night. Strong offshore flow will develop overnight
Friday night in the wake of the front, with winds gradually
diminishing through the day Saturday. High pres will move east
through the weekend with onshore flow returning and strengthening
Sunday into Monday as low pres deepens over the southern Plains.



AEX  53  80  58  81 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  56  77  60  80 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  54  79  60  81 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  57  79  62  82 /   0   0   0  10




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