Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 262046
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
346 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds thickening up across the area now thanks to a combination
of scattered low level clouds and mid to upper level clouds from
thunderstorm blowoff. This thunderstorm activity was occurring
over the piney woods...prairies and lakes region of Texas...and
had edged into interior southeast Texas this afternoon.

Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s to near 90 in most of
southwest...central and south central Louisiana. However...thick
clouds and some rain cooled air had southeast Texas temperatures
reeling back into the lowers 80s south to the uppers 70s interior
southeast Texas.

The upper flow was southwesterly aloft ahead of a broad trough
which covered much of the southwest United States. A disturbance
ejected out of the main trough was now moving into the Houston
region. showers and thunderstorms...some severe...were beginning
to pick up steam. Most of this activity looked to be headed more
into the Piney Woods and northeast Texas this afternoon and
evening. However...no doubt some of the edge will eventually get
into southwest Texas and western Louisiana overnight. Have upped
the pops to account for current HRRR and MOS guidance which
appeared to bring this activity into our area...albeit...the
highest pops looks to be across interior southeast Texas. I did
not go as high as guidance this time around as some of this will
weaken with loss of daytime heating and the trajectory of the rain
indicates most will stay west of a Alexandria Lake Charles line.

Better rain chances, along with a risk of severe thunderstorms,
will come Friday and on into Saturday as the main trof with a
negatively tilted axis emerges east of the Rockies then
subsequently lifts out to the NE. Large hail/damaging winds appear
to be the primary hazards at this time. Convection will also be
quite efficient at rainfall production given progged PWATs near 2
inches.

The upper ridge will build back in a bit in the wake of the trof,
with rain chances decreasing back to a small diurnal PoP from
Sunday through early week. Disparity appears in the guidance by
mid week with the ECMWF breaking the ridge down again while the
GFS holds it firm. Capped PoPs at a low end chance.

06

MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail through the week as high
pressure remains established over the Southeast coast. The onshore
winds will increase tonight into Friday as a series of low
pressure systems develops over the Plains. Small craft should
exercise caution over the Gulf waters tonight through Friday
night.

06

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  84  70  86 /  40  50  30  50
LCH  75  83  73  84 /  30  40  30  40
LFT  74  85  72  86 /  30  20  20  30
BPT  76  83  74  85 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION through late Friday night for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...06



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