Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 100157
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
857 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSAPATED OVER LOWER ACADIANA WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE COULD BE A RESUMPTION OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS AND INTO ACADIANA BEFORE MORNING. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT LOWER DUE TO CURRENT DEW POINT TRENDS AND THE UPDATED CANADIAN MODEL.
GRIDS ALREADY UPDATED. ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SCT SHRA/TSRA NOW MOVING S OF ARA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHER SHRA
POSSIBLE THRU 01Z FOR LFT/LCH/BPT. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT S WINDS. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THU
AFTERNOON...THUS PLACED PROB30 GROUP DURING THIS PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NERN GULF
RIDGING WWD AND MAINTAINING A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW...WHILE THE WRN GULF REGION CONTINUES TO
LIE IN A BIT OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE TROF
HAS BEEN HELPING FIRE CONVECTION OVER SERN LA...LINGERING WWD INTO
THE ACADIANA ZONES ATTM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS WERE RETAINED OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AS HIGHER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO LINGER IN
THIS AREA ALONG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES
HANGING AROUND. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMETHING OF A REPEAT OF
TODAY WITH THE WEAKNESS ALOFT PERSISTING ALONG WITH TRIGGER TEMPS
IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND DEEPEST MOISTURE OVER ACADIANA. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE TRANSITION PERIOD AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST
BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AND POPS ARE NUDGED
DOWNWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO BUILD JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF MOST OF THE POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. STILL AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH ALL THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THAT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A STORM OR TWO
DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL CAPPING...THUS HAVE DECIDED TO RETAIN VERY
SLIM POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

BY NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN OR GET NUDGED
BACK TO THE WEST PUTTING US BACK IN A WARM MOIST AND MOSTLY
UNCAPPED AIRMASS...THUS CHANCE POPS ARE BACK TO THE LAST FEW
DAYTIME PERIODS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING OVER THE NWRN GULF SHOULD MAINTAIN A
MAINLY LIGHT AND SRLY FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  91  75  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
KBPT  74  93  75  91  75 /  10  30  10  30  10
KAEX  73  92  73  94  74 /  10  30  30  30  10
KLFT  74  89  75  92  75 /  20  40  20  30  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSLAKECHARLES

&&

$$







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