Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 232042
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
342 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the nrn Gulf
of Mexico providing a light somewhat swrly low-level flow over
the forecast area this afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows the
area on the ern periphery of ridging aloft...while a tutt low is
noted over the Atlantic off the east coast of FL. Somewhat
opposite to earlier thinking, local 88Ds show just widely
scattered convection across the region ATTM...although a
disturbance in the nerly flow aloft is creating a cluster of
thunderstorms over nrn MS which is currently headed swwd.

Ongoing diurnal convection will mostly diminish this evening as
usual with sunset/loss of heating...although did bump POPs up
slightly across the nern zones on threat of the ongoing upstream
convection making it this far swwd. Expect another round of
nocturnal Gulf showers to pop up later tonight...with a few likely
to encroach the coastal zones toward sunrise.

Main story this forecast period looks to be an increase in rain
chances over the next several days as the tutt off the FL coast
pushes wwd over the nrn Gulf and on into srn TX. Forecast
soundings show a continuation of the copious moisture already in
place across the region...along with little capping...as this
feature crosses the area. The additional precip/cloud cover will
help keep our recent warmth somewhat at bay especially beyond
tomorrow...unfortunately highs in the lower/mid 90s are likely
again sunday with apparent temps closing in 105-107 one more day.

Rain chances diminish a bit for late in the week as the low
weakens over TX/nrn Mexico...although plentiful moisture/a
lingering weakness aloft/daytime heating should still lead to
scattered mainly afternoon/early evening convection. Weak ridging
aloft is progged to build back into the wrn Gulf region by next
weekend which should further limit convection...especially over
the far wrn zones.

&&

.MARINE...
A mainly light srly flow is expected to continue on the coastal
waters with high pressure lingering over the ern Gulf/sern CONUS.
No flags are anticipated ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  75  94  75  91 /  20  50  30  60
LCH  79  92  77  90 /  20  50  20  50
LFT  78  93  77  91 /  20  50  20  60
BPT  77  95  78  92 /  20  50  20  50

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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