Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 291147
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
647 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AVIATION...APPROACHING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL FLOW OFF
THE GULF WILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR AND MODERATE RAIN ON SOUTHEAST WINDS. BPT
CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD SEE IFR MAINLY DUE TO CIGS WITH
MODERATE RAIN. AEX WILL LIKELY SEE THIS ACTIVITY LATE TNITE CLOSER
TO SUNRISE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE RAIN.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDGES WESTWARD THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A DEEP INVERTED TROUGH MARKS ITS OUTER WESTERN
PERIPHERY...EXTENDING FROM BROWNSVILLE THROUGH THE LAKES REGION OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

DISCUSSION...

AN EXTENSIVE CARIBBEAN CONVEYOR BELT IS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...SEPARATING THE BERMUDA SYSTEM FROM THE DEEP
INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CARIBBEAN PUSH MOVING ONSHORE THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PUSH WILL PHASE IN WITH PRONOUNCED
PVA LIFT...BRINGING ABOUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL CARIBBEAN PUSHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. WITH PVA LIFT IN PLACE...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ACCUMULATED RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING AROUND 6 PM SATURDAY WILL RANGE
FROM ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE PINEY HILLS TO
ALMOST 2 INCHES AT THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY...AS THE MERGED
GREAT PLAINS-INVERTED TROUGH TRAVEL EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS (FROM 5 TO 7 SECONDS) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  89  75  83  76  90 /  60  60  70  60  60
KBPT  87  75  84  76  89 /  60  60  70  60  60
KAEX  91  72  83  72  90 /  40  40  70  60  60
KLFT  89  75  84  76  90 /  60  60  70  60  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY
     TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO
     HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

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&&

$$






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