Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281457
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
957 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Old outflow bndry is kicking off scattered shwrs and isolated
thunderstorms along the I-10 across southeast Texas and srn
Louisiana this morning. Storms were also noted in central
Louisiana part of a complex that is still holding together attm.
Today shwrs and thunderstorms expected to cont thru the aftn into
the eve hours... as the latest boundary moves towards the region.
Precip water is somewhat limited but will incr thru the day...
CAPES this am were 4100 j/kg typical... srn La/se Tx started the
mrng w/ LI fm -8 to -10. Made some minor changes to the fcst for
tdy. Welcome to summer.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings between 1-2 kft should gradually improve through the
morning. Most terminals should improve to VFR by the afternoon
although periods of MVFR ceilings could still be possible. The
greatest potential for MVFR ceilings this afternoon appears to be
for areas north and west of a line extending from KAEX southwest
to KLCH and KBPT. While the majority of the latest weather models
keep showers and thunderstorms out of the area through the
afternoon, there is the possibility that some showers and
thunderstorms could enter the area late this afternoon and into
this evening. For now, will leave out any mention of showers and
storms for future shifts to evaluate. MVFR ceilings should return
by this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Another warm night with temperatures in the upper 70s
northern areas to around 80 along the coast. Satellite
imagery lit up with multi-colored blooms of convection
across north Texas...eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas over
to northern Georgia. Severe weather broke out yesterday
with lots of wind damage north of our state. The convection
early this morning continued a down trend as loss of daytime
heating continued to stabilize the airmass.

Short Term...The warm cap aloft that has been in place will
continue to keep us on the dry side the first half of the day.
However...will keep in token 20 percent chance of thunderstorms
for our northern areas in case an outflow from todays convection
up north sneaks into our area this afternoon.A slight risk of
severe storms is possible in extreme northern sections of interior
southeast Texas and central Louisiana today through Monday
morning. A marginal risk for borderline severe storms is possible
through the same time period along and north of a Port Arthur
Texas to Simmesport Louisiana line. If a severe storm did
develop...most likely wind damage or hail would be the result.

The cold front appears to be making slow progress as it is just
getting past the red river and has not reached Dallas/Forth Worth
yet. Rich low level moisture continued to pool along and ahead of
the front where precipitable water was 1.5 to near 2 inches. As
daytime heating gets going...storms will refire along the frontal
boundary and continue to migrate southward with the front.

Tonight...as the frontal boundary approaches our northern
areas...rain chances increase significantly and spread southward
overnight as the front meanders even closer. There could a few
storms that reach severe limits in the previously mentioned areas.
However...most of the upper level support does move north of the
area...therefore...not expecting widespread severe weather at this
time.

Longterm...Monday through Saturday...The frontal boundary will
continue to meander down to the coast by Tuesday morning and stall
out there. The front should wash out by late Wednesday.
However...Monday through Wednesday we are expecting increased rain
chances to continue as weak disturbances ride across the area and
the weak frontal boundary remains potent enough for which storms
will focus on. Rain chances remain elevated Thursday through
Saturday as gulf moisture continues to supply daytime storms with
the necessary ingredient and daytime heating creates a very
unstable airmass.

In summary...if you like warm and humid weather...it will welcome
you again today. Rainy pattern begins tonight and continues
through next week. Localized flooding is always possible with
slow moving boundaries and a moist environment. However...widespread
flooding is not expected at this time as upper level support is
expected to weaken during the first part of next week.

MARINE...
Light to moderate southerly flow will continue through the rest of
next week as high pressure remains entrench over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. Rain chances will be on the increase tonight and remain
elevated through at least the middle of next week as a cold front
sags south to near the coast where it will stall and washout by
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  90  71  80  68 /  30  60  80  40
LCH  88  73  81  71 /  20  60  80  60
LFT  90  73  83  71 /  20  60  80  60
BPT  89  73  82  71 /  20  60  80  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...19


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