Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 260449
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016
For 06z TAF issuance.
Threw in some slight restrictions to visibility for the ern sites
based on latest obs as well as model depictions of possible fog
overnight. Also inserted VCSH at KBPT later tonight as HRRR
indicates a possible redevelopment of shower activity over the
coastal waters which could get within earshot of the terminal.
Otherwise no significant changes to previous TAF thinking.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1055 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...Forecast looks good for the remainder of the night
maintaining low end pops. No update coming.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/
For 00z TAF issuance.
Local 88Ds show widespread showers/thunderstorms beginning to wind
down with mainly just leftover stratiform rains impacting the
terminals (other than KBPT) ATTM. Precip should continue to
diminish in coverage over the next hour or so with loss of
heating...although VC mention was carried a little longer at KBPT
due to wwd movement of the activity with its associated erly wave.
Nighttime hours look quiet with mainly VFR conditions
expected...although afternoon rains could provide enough moisture
for some fog late if clearing should develop later. Tomorrow looks
like more of a summertime day with slim rain chances during max
heating...although higher POPs were carried at KBPT due to closer
to proximity to the departing wave.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016/
DISCUSSION...Deep moisture is wrapping around the south and
southwest edge of a ridge of high pressure centered over the
Southeast States/Mid Atlantic. Pwats in excess of 2.25" and a weak
disturbance have lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms
that are gradually working toward the west-northwest. This
convection will continue through the afternoon and decrease after
sunset. By Friday the deepest moisture will be found across the
western sections of the area/SE TX. Pwats will drop to around or
possibly less than 1.5" across the eastern zones.
Saturday through early next week moisture will stay elevated
across the southern sections while the ridge stays to the NE of
the area. This will keep scattered storms across the southern
zones with lesser chances across the East Tx Lakes and CenLA.
During the middle of the coming week the area of disturbed
weather/tropical wave will move across or near FL and perhaps
into or through the eastern gulf. For the latest on the tropics
refer to NHC. Locally, near climo pops and temps can be expected.
MARINE...A light to moderate easterly flow is expected through
most of the period as high pressure remains to the north of the
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 92 73 91 / 20 40 20 30
LCH 75 90 75 88 / 40 50 20 50
LFT 75 91 75 89 / 20 30 20 50
BPT 76 90 76 88 / 50 60 30 50