Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 212037
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
337 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon convection has increased across the area over the last
couple of hours. Much like the activity further west across the
Houston area, many of the storms have been moving in a near linear
pattern which has setup some isolated spots of heavy rainfall and
localized street flooding. The convection is being steered around
the perimeter of an upper ridge that extends to near the northern
gulf coast. With little in the way of synoptic lifting, these
storms should quickly fizzle out around or shortly after sunset
this evening.

The aforementioned upper ridge will remain in place across the
region over the next several days allowing for only isolated to
scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms that will
likely follow a similar overall evolution (which is to say
a general northwestward motion) as we have seen today.

By Saturday, a weak upper level low is progged to develop over the
Florida panhandle before slowly drifting west along the northern
gulf coast. This will serve to enhance overall rain chances
beginning Saturday afternoon and becoming more pronounced Sunday
and Monday. By Tuesday, the upper low is absorbed into the larger
upper trough digging southeast out of the western US along with a
digging cold front.

The good news is that both the long range GFS and EURO swing the
front through the area sometime late next week. The bad news is
that there is presently considerable uncertainty with regards to
the timing of the frontal system. The 12Z EURO does now line up
with the GFS in indicating frontal passage late next Friday into
early Saturday, but there has been little run to run consistency
on timing thus far.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Isolated showers and thunderstorm Friday will become more
scattered over the weekend into early next week as an upper level
low approaches the area. Weak high pressure at the surface will
persist over the Northeast Gulf, yielding light southerly winds
and low seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  93  71  91 /  30  20  10  20
LCH  73  91  73  90 /  30  20  10  30
LFT  73  92  73  91 /  20  20  10  30
BPT  73  90  72  89 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...66


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