Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 010446
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1146 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 01/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BEGIN TO SLOW ITS
MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. KBPT SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 02/09Z FROM THIS ACTIVITY WITH VCSH
FOR KAEX AND KLCH. ACTIVITY SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT NEAR A FRONT
BOUNDARY AND FRONTAL WAVE OVER EAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. WILL PLACE PREVAILING SHOWERS AT
KAEX/KBPT/KLCH BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN VCSH BY 02/18Z WITH
PROB30 GROUPS AT KLFT/KARA AS ACTIVITY PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...A MORE MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL LOW THAT IS IN
THE VICINITY OF LUFKIN. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
NEAR THE LOW AND BACK ALONG THE TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE THE CWA THROUGH THE
THE EVENING WHILE SLOWING. THIS MAY PRODUCE THE TREAT FLOODING
FROM HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST CENTRAL LA THROUGH SE TX INLAND FROM
THE COAST. POPS HAVE BUMPED UP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO
FRI AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN AND WEAKENS.

TINGLER


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/
SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM EAST
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND BECOME LIKELY TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

SHORT TERM...WARMER TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AS
WELL AS THE FLOW OFF THE GULF. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE SHOULD ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PARKED OFF THE COAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL TROF BECOMES PARKED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
SCENARIO MORPHS INTO WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK,
MAINTAINING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
BERMUDA RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN
TAPERING OFF.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  88  73  86  73 /  50  50  40  30  30
KBPT  75  89  73  86  74 /  60  50  40  20  30
KAEX  71  85  69  87  70 /  70  50  20  30  30
KLFT  74  87  76  87  73 /  40  60  20  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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