Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 031122
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
622 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VARIABLE CIGS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM IFR AT
THE ACADIANA TERMINALS TO VFR AT KAEX. KBPT HAS BEEN FAIRLY SOLID
MVFR WITH KLCH FLUCTUATING BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BOTH DEPICT CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR
AREAWIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE FCST FOLLOWS SUIT AS DRIER
AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN THE PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS...KLCH 88D IS CLR
OF ANY PRECIP ECHOES. LATEST WV/UA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH THAT
WAS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND NOW BCMG
RE-ESTABLISHED E OF THE ROCKIES AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTH OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. UPSTREAM...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WAS SETTING UP
OVER THE WRN CONUS. BENEATH THESE FEATURES...WLY FLOW WAS BRINGING
DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS
BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED ACRS SERN LA. NLY
WINDS WERE USHERING IN LOWER DEWPOINTS WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN TO NR 60 NORTH AND MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.

24

DISCUSSION...
A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. THE ELONGATED
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND
CNTL CONUS THROUGH FRIDAY. NLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A DEEP
CYCLONE OVER THE ERN US WILL MAINTAIN A DRY PATTERN ACRS OUR
REGION...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDING SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH CLR
OR MOSTLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
LOWS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND HIGHS JUST
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN NORMAL EARLY MAY MAXIMUMS. TONIGHT...EXPECT
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S ACRS THE LAKES REGION INTO CNTL
LA...WITH MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPR 70S TO NR 80 WITH LOWS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPR 50S.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES EAST AND SELY WINDS DEVELOP. LOW LVL MOISTURE AND RH
VALUES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CLIMB DURING THE WEEKEND. THE UPR RIDGE
AND OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE W COAST TO MIGRATE EAST. THE APPROACH OF
THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS BY NEXT MONDAY.

24

MARINE...
MODT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WERE EXTENDED THROUGH
EARLY AFTN FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS ZONES FM INTRACOASTAL
CITY WWD AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY TONIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN COASTAL ZONES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH. LT
TO MODT OFFSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH WINDS SHIFTING SELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  76  53  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
LCH  78  55  81  59 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  78  58  80  59 /  10  10   0   0
BPT  80  55  81  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ470-472.

&&

$$


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