Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 261538
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1038 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...Morning LCH sounding coming in with a dry PWAT of
1.56 inches. Any notable moisture was shown between 15-20K ft.
This where considerable cirrus was depicted by satellite imagery
earlier especially over the southern portion of the forecast
area. This continues to erode. Have now begun to see cu
development with convective temperatures met. Typical hot and
humid late July day ahead. Forecast looks good and no update
needed.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

AVIATION...
Some minor reductions in visibility associated with very light fog
is being observed across the region this morning. SCT to BKN high
level clouds have prevented more dense fog from developing. A
brief period of lower visibilities will still be possible over the
next hour before fog dissipates completely.

The area remains beneath upper level ridging centered across
northern Texas this morning and this will keep a lid on convection
once again today. A few very isolated showers or thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out, but overall probability is very low. Weak
high pressure at the surface will keep winds light and generally
out of the south through the period.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
nern Gulf, maintaining a light mostly srly low-level flow across
the region. Meanwhile a stationary front is noted from the
Missouri Valley through the Ozarks and Mid-South to the Carolinas.
Water vapor imagery shows ridging in place from the Desert SW to
the srn Plains and Ozarks with dry air pushing swd into the nrn
1/2 of the forecast area. A weak disturbance over the nwrn Gulf is
allowing for some late night convection over the outer coastal
waters and beyond, with this activity moving mostly nnwwd toward
the upper TX coast. Sfc obs show some light fog has been
developing across mainly the nern 1/4 of the forecast area.

Short term forecast challenges are primarily what to do with POPs
over mainly the extreme swrn zones based on convection offshore,
as well as fog potential. Radar trends show the bulk of the
offshore activity has been fizzling upon approach to the
coastline...while overnight high res runs show this activity
drifting wwd with time. These trends have been reflected in very
slim POPs through about 15z mainly over the wrn marine zones, but
clipping part of Jefferson Co as well. Meanwhile on the fog front,
have inserted a patchy mention over most of our LA zones
along/north of the I-10 corridor to account the consensus of our
fog models.

Next few days look dry but warmer as the ridging aloft expands swd
with time. Forecast soundings indicate some low-level moisture
remaining in play mainly earlier in the days, but too much dry
air aloft for any potential convection to overcome as mid-level RH
values drop well below 50 percent. Main story will be the heat as
highs creep up to the mid 90s by the end of the work week. For
now with some daytime mixing, dewpoints look to drop low enough to
keep apparent temps from reaching heat advisory criteria, but it
will be close across parts of sern TX with heat index values
reaching 105-106F the next few days.

Models still insisting on a frontal passage late in the weekend as
a digging trof over the ern CONUS breaks down the ridge.
Increasing moisture through the column will work in combo with the
boundary and troffing aloft, allowing for increasing rain chances
especially on Saturday. Behind the front, dewpoints are progged to
drop back into the 60s for the early part of next week, providing
a quick shot of relief from our typical muggy summertime
conditions. Rain chances return Tuesday as another disturbance
dropping through the trof moves into the area.

MARINE...
No flags are anticipated on the coastal waters through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  74  95  74 /  10  10  10   0
LCH  92  77  93  77 /  10  10  10   0
LFT  93  76  94  76 /  10  10  10   0
BPT  91  76  93  76 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...23


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