Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 201720
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1120 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
20/18Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper trough will slowly work into the Southeast U.S. through
Tuesday. Water vapor continues to show considerable high clouds
ahead of the trough. Also...additional short wave energy rotating
into the Southern Plains will aid in maintaining high level
clouds through the period. Dry air remains at the surface although
dewpoints are forecasted to climb into the 50s tonight. For
forecasts...will only keep high level clouds and light winds.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CST Mon Nov 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the
lower Mississippi Valley, ridging swwd across the forecast area
with a light nerly low-level flow in place helping maintain our
recent cool conditions with observations showing temps ranging
from near freezing nern zones to lower 40s srn zones. Water vapor
imagery shows ern CONUS troffing drifting ewd off the East Coast
with a shortwave trof noted upstream over the srn Plains/wrn TX at
this time...satellite imagery shows this feature producing a fair
amount of cirrus streaming out ahead of it, passing over the wrn
Gulf region this morning. Regional 88Ds are once again PPINE, as
expected.

Looking at one more day of dry weather today as low-level moisture
remains slim despite presence of approaching shortwave. Forecast
soundings indicate moistening beginning tonight as the sfc high
finally pushes off to the east. Showers will begin to develop over
the coastal waters tonight with a few possibly moving ashore
tomorrow on the tail end of the passing vort. A stronger storm
system moving out of the nrn/cntl Plains should push our next cold
front toward the region tomorrow night into early Wednesday,
leading to widely scattered showers for the area upon FROPA.

Our Thanksgiving weather is looking dry but chilly as nrly flow
again develops aloft and high pressure builds over the region at
the sfc. Morning wake up temps are expected to be around freezing
across the nern 1/4 of the area, with readings in the mid/upper
30s elsewhere. Highs are currently forecast to barely reach 60
across the ern 1/2. In our progressive pattern, high pressure will
quickly build past the region, allowing for a brief warmup before
another front slides through late in the weekend.

MARINE...
Another round of elevated offshore flow is expected behind the
mid-week frontal passage, although only caution-criteria winds are
expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  63  39  68  44 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  64  47  71  51 /   0  10  20  20
LFT  63  46  70  50 /   0  10  20  20
BPT  65  50  72  52 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...04


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