Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 180102
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
902 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONLY CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE LATE EVE UPDATE WERE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED BUT CIRROSTRATUS CONTINUES TO STREAM
THROUGH SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER OHIO REGION. A QUIET NIGHT
MAY THUS BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LEVELING OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
THE AVERAGES.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS ALL BUT HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY...WITH FILTERED INSOLATION DRIVING HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMALS DESPITE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY OFF THE PLAINS AND PHASE WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS. THE
RESULTING GULF MOISTURE TAP IS LIKELY TO FUEL SHOWERS FOR THE
UPPER OHIO REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

BY MONDAY...WARMTH UNDER A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT AND RELATIVE
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND MIXING TO SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WIND AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AS WELL AS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEMS COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWER CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY WANE OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE HEADS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...STEEPENED
LAPSE RATES VIA COOL NORTHWEST FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS TUESDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS LATER IN THE WEEK...AND POPS
WERE KEPT LOW. TEMPERATURES WERE FORECAST USING WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH
WERE AT...OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WIND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE INCREASES SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THINK THAT DRIER AIR
MOVING IN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FORMATION. ONE EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS MGW...WHERE ENOUGH RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN THE LAST
24-36 HOURS TO ALLOW FOR SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/33



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