Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 290536
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
136 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR....WITH MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ONLY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS DOWN ACROSS
PRESTON TUCKER AND GARRETT COUNTIES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN
THE UPPER 60S AND WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. AT THIS POINT IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED...SO OPTED TO
KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING.

FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS RIDGING OVERHEAD SHIFTS EAST
TOMORROW...RESULTING IN INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVERAGE. MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE
JUST ENOUGH TRIGGER TO OVERCOME WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT CAPPING
OFF CONVECTION...BUT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NAM MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE. OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST UNTIL FULL 00Z MODEL
SUITE IS AVAILABLE FOR CONSIDERATION...BUT IN ANY CASE ITS GOING
TO BE A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT AS HARD TO TIME IMPULSES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM FRIDAY NIGHT AS
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE 60S.

COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. MUCH
COOLER ON SUNDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE...AS IT APPEARS ANOTHER WAVE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ADJUSTED TOWARD
COOLER 12Z GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALONG WITH A SLOW
MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY...IS PROGGED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF PIT
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD IN BY MID
WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL
INCREASING ABOVE AVERAGE BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. FEW CLOUDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT...AND THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR FOG. MOISTURE DOES
START CREEPING BACK NORTHWARD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SCT-BKN CU
DECK DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BUILD DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VCTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE USED AT ALL SITES...GIVEN THAT ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF OVERALL. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...AND COULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY S OF PIT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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