Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 230955
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON AS THE WEEKEND
GOES ON...WITH WARM AND STILL HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN BEFORE SUNRISE IN TUCKER COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA STARTS THE DAY RAIN-
FREE. RECENT RAINFALL FROM THE PAST DAY OR SO COMBINED WITH A
VERY HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE HAVE ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THESE SHOWERS. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
LIKELY...HOWEVER COVERAGE SEEMS AS THOUGH IT WILL FAIL TO BE
SUFFICIENT TO NECESSITATE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE LONGITUDINAL
AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SWEEPING
TROUGH DIGS OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST. WITH RISING HEIGHTS TO OUR
WEST...MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
SLOWLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING DOWN THE
CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF INSTABILITY SEEMS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO BE
CUT OFF BY WARM AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THE BEST CHANCES OF
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE RIDGES...WHILE POINTS TO THE WEST IN OHIO HAVE A FAR
LOWER RISK OF A SHOWER.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE JET AXIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD END THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT KEEP HUMID AIR IN PLACE. ONCE AGAIN...AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROF SUN
LEADING TO A DRYING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PULL MOISTURE OUT FASTER WITH EACH NEW RUN. IT NOW APPEARS
THAT IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXIST WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING SUN
AFTERNOON...THEY WILL STAY PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE MASON DIXON LINE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SERN WV AND OUT OF OUR AREA.

MONDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND DRY
AIR IN PLACE...CLOUD DEVELOP SHOULD EVEN BE LIMITED. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABOVE NORMALS. BY LATE
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS TILTS WEST TO EAST ALLOWING A LITTLE
MORE MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. SOME
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP INTO MON NIGHT/TUES...BUT THE DRY WEATHER WILL
PERSIST.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE TREND OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
DETAILS SURROUNDING A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT TO OUR IMMEDIATE
AREA...THE BROAD SCALE PATTERN INCLUDING TIMING THE BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WILL BE IMPACTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER CHANCES.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR AND IFR FOG IS COMMON AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING. IT
SHOULD SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH MID-MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF MOST SITES. MVFR FOG
IS LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ERLY SUN MRNG FOG RSTRNS ARE PSBL.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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