Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 210853
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
450 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain dry and warm weather through the
weekend. Rain chances return early next week with low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Upper level ridge will be centered over the region today. Probably a
little less sunshine today, as high cirrus clouds will overspread
the region. Temperatures will warm again, with low-level southwest
flow and weak warm air advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Temperatures will continue to be on the rise as upper ridge axis
moves east. Sunday should be the warmest day of the weekend,
with temperatures dropping off a degree or two by Monday.

Monday`s forecast still remains uncertain as there is
noticeable model differences in the timing of precipitation.
Much of the differences have to do with what will ultimately
happen at 500mbs Sunday night and Monday. Operational models
want to develop a cutoff low over the Gulf Coast states late
Sunday night, which not only slows the eastward progression of
the main trough axis, but also limits the amount of deep
moisture that is streaming northward ahead of the trough.
Ensembles are not developing the cutoff low over the south and
thus are faster and show greater QPF arriving sooner. Will lean
toward the ensemble forecast, which will keep PoPs in on Monday.
Have slowed just a bit from previous forecast to account for
the discrepancies, but ensembles have not wavered from their
upper level solution over the last several runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Have continued with high pops Monday night and Tuesday. If
ensemble data is correct, area could see a much needed soaking
during this time period. A reinforcing wave Wednesday will
bring the chance for another round of showers. Temperatures will
drop to normal by Tuesday and below normal on Wednesday. Area
should dry out after midweek, with temperatures remaining below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR and light wind through the
weekend.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely with a Monday cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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