Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 240117 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
817 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking warmth is expected on Friday, followed by a cold
front late Friday night into early Saturday morning which will
eventually drop temperatures near normal by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
820pm update...a rather organized line of showers and iso storms
has developed along the southern edge of the weak surface front
and just ahead of the rapidly eastward moving shortwave trough.
Storm coverage is decreasing as is the intensity, with sunset.
Most of the activity is over Eastern Ohio with the upper level
support, and expect this to move northeastward this evening with
the wave. In addition, the coverage will continue to decrease as
the wave picks up speed and forces the surface boundary
northward. Have adjusted PoPs using a blend of hires guidance
and radar trends. Temperatures have also been modified with a
blend of hires guidance.

Previous discussion...With the front to the north and
southerly winds across the region, the warmest day of the year
so far is expected on Friday, with nearly all locations rising
into the 70s and an isolated 80 degree reading not out of the
question. The current forecast includes record breaking
temperatures at all climate locations and dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While there is still some minimal model disagreement in timing
of the next cold front, the general consensus shows the front
crossing Pittsburgh around sunrise Saturday. The timing should
help to dampen the threat for severe weather. Although
instability along the cold front will be limited locally, there
will still be a threat for strong winds considering the wind
shear along the front. SPC has maintained a slight risk for
severe weather across most Ohio counties and a marginal risk
elsewhere in the forecast area.

The bulk of rainfall will have moved east by Saturday afternoon,
and a brief lull in showers can be expected before the
combination of west-northwesterly winds and colder air allows
for some lake enhanced showers to develop Saturday night. Some
minimal snow accumulations, less than an inch, will be possible
in the favored locations along Interstate 80 and along the
PA/WV/MD ridges. As high pressure builds in from the southwest,
winds will lose their northerly component and all precipitation
will end Sunday morning. While temperatures will remain in the
50s Friday night, temps will fall all of Saturday and Saturday
night, eventually bottoming out in the 20s. Seasonal highs
around 40 are forecast on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Broad southwest flow aloft is in place for the first portion of the
extended period, before a trend towards a troughing pattern towards
the end.  While guidance generally agrees with this, details on
shortwaves and surface systems remain murky, with model disagreement
continuing. The flow and increasing moisture with time will support
chances for scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.  A more
significant system appears possible for later Tuesday night and
Wednesday, for which likely PoPs were maintained. Once again, this
system will produce nealy all liquid, save for some backside snow
showers later Wednesday night. Northwest flow activity may linger on
Thursday. Made modifications to the SuperBlend guidance to shade
more towards continuity.  A trend from normal to above normal
temperatures will be felt from Monday through Wednesday, before
seasonal values return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Looking at a general VFR forecast through the period, with the
exception of FKL and DUJ, which may see MVFR cigs this evening.
Hit or miss showers, or a brief storm, is possible during the
evening at all ports with the exception of MGW and LBE. The best
chance to see showers will be a FKL and DUJ, due to their close
proximity to the surface front. If restrictions do occur with
the activity, they will be short lived. Late tonight, all ports
will return to VFR, as the aforementioned surface front moves
northward.

Only concern for the forecast on Friday will be the
strengthening SW winds. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 kts are possible
at all ports during the afternoon.

.OUTLOOK...
Widespread restrictions are likely with the approach and passage
of a cold front on Friday night and early Saturday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for climate sites:

            Thu              Fri
          --------        --------
PIT       70 (1922)       70 (1875,1906)
ZZV       64 (2000)       70 (1961)
MGW       68 (1996)       75 (1975)
DUJ       63 (1985)       60 (1985)
HLG       62 (2000)       63 (2016)
PHD       69 (1975)       66 (1985)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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