211
FNUS73 KDLH 121043
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Garden Oak Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
543 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 12.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

A line of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
over Lake Superior and are marching east to southeast. Though they
are currently north of the burn site, it is still possible that
showers will form over the area and bring light rain accumulations
to the burn site this morning. Then mostly cloudy skies will thin
to clear to milky as smoke is expected to be transported over
northwest Wisconsin from Canada.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 10 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the morning.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL increasing to 5600 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 20 mph shifting to the northwest 14
                    to 15 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (49000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (72300-88700 knot-ft) early in the afternoon,
                    then decreasing to good (52300 knot-ft) late in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  20  10
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   1
Temp............72  75  76  76  76  76  74
RH..............38  34  34  34  34  33  33
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..11  11  11  11  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.19  18  18  18  18  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.9 4.3 5.2 5.1 5.6 4.4 4.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  17  17  14  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100049  72  89  77  84  52  54

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Areas of smoke.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......2500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (11500-27500 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (3000 knot-ft) early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS  AREAS
Weather type....SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE  SMOKE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............74     64     56     51     47     43
RH..............32     41     51     54     60     67
20 ft wind......NW 8   N 6    N 5    N 5    N 5    N 5
20 ft wind gust.14     13     9      8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   600    400    500    500    400
Transport wind..NW 13  N 10   N 8    N 12   N 9    N 9
Haines index....5      5      5      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/100028     6      3      5      4      3

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Areas of smoke early in
                    the morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 64.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4600 ft AGL in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3400-19300 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good (42100-48600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....AREAS
Weather type....SMOKE  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............41     47     54     59     62     63
RH..............76     65     52     44     36     34
20 ft wind......N 5    N 6    N 7    N 8    N 8    N 9
20 ft wind gust.9      9      12     13     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    1600   2700   3700   4400   4400
Transport wind..N 9    N 12   N 12   N 10   N 10   N 13
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10003      16     27     33     39     49

$$
Forecaster...Krystal
Requested by...Joseph Eucolono
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413768.1/DLH
.DELDT 05/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL joseph.f.eucolono@usda.gov