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000
FXUS64 KSJT 241940
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
240 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Upper level short wave ridging is in place across the area as an
upper level low moves toward the southern California coast. As
faster flow moves in aloft maintaining lee troughing, southerly
flow continues to keep the air mass in west central Texas moist
and unstable. Deep layer shear is expected to be in the 35 to 45
knot range late this afternoon and evening. Short range CAMs
continue to depict isolated thunderstorms developing
west/northwest of our forecast area this evening between 6 PM and
8 PM. However, with the upper level ridge in place, indicating
warmer temperatures aloft, there is some question as to whether or
not convection will be able to break the cap. In addition, not
all CAMs sustain the convection into our counties. At any rate,
should convection get going, it would likely quickly become strong
to severe. So, will keep a 20 to 30 percent chance of storms
going generally along and north of a Sterling City to Baird line
going for the evening hours, with a mention of severe weather
possible for western Big Country areas.

Once convection dies later tonight, we can expect increasing
clouds, and another warm, humid night, with lows in the mid to
upper 60s. For Thursday, expect continued gusty southerly winds,
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, and skies becoming partly
cloudy after a mostly cloudy start.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...Severe thunderstorms possible Thursday night...

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will lift northeast from the
Desert Southwest Thursday morning and into the central/southern
Plains by early Friday morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop west of the area along the dryline Thursday evening, as
lift increases ahead of the shortwave. Thunderstorms are expected
to increase in coverage across West Central Texas mainly after
midnight, as the dryline/Pacific front advance eastward. Ample
low level moisture, coupled with strong deep layer shear will
support some severe storms well into the overnight hours, with the
greatest threat expected from the Concho Valley northward into
the Big Country. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary
hazards, although a couple of tornadoes will be possible as low
level shear increases with a strengthening low level jet.
Thunderstorms are expected to end early Friday morning, as storms
move off to the east.

Another upper level trough will develop over the Desert Southwest
early Saturday and is forecast to lift northeast into the
central/southern Plains late Saturday night and early Sunday. This
system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area Saturday
into early Sunday, along with another threat for some severe
storms.

Still looks like mainly quiet weather for the area early next
week, with thunderstorms possible again by mid week as yet another
shortwave develops southwest of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently there is a mix of MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area.
Expect all sites to lift into VFR in the next couple hours, with
south to southeast winds gusting between 15 and 20 knots through
this evening. Gusts will likely continue intermittently overnight
as the LLJ increases after sunset. MVFR ceilings are expected to
return overnight between 06Z and 09Z, with IFR heights possible at
KBBD, KSOA, and KJCT from 09Z through mid to late morning on
Thursday. There is a chance for an isolated TSRA near KABI this
evening, but confidence is not high enough in coverage or
placement of any of this activity to mention in this TAF forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  84  64  86 /  20  10  80  10
San Angelo  68  85  65  88 /   0   0  60   0
Junction    68  88  68  91 /   0   0  30  10
Brownwood   66  82  65  86 /   0  10  60  30
Sweetwater  68  83  63  85 /  20  10  70   0
Ozona       67  82  65  88 /   0   0  50   0
Brady       68  83  68  87 /   0  10  50  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20