163
FXUS64 KSJT 092351 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
651 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the
Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and
Southeast Big Country.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country,
Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail,
Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these
areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected
behind the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only
reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest,
potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill
Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do
develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently
expecting this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.

An upper low will be over the Nevada/Arizona border Friday night,
and will move over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. The
low is progged to move across the western half of Kansas Sunday
night, with a trough extending south across our area. An embedded
disturbance or two will be moving over our area ahead of this
system. With this setup and increased lift/moisture in our area, we
have medium to high PoPs (40-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

Rain chances should largely dwindle Monday with a weak cold frontal
passage, and as the aforementioned trough shifts east of our area.
Less cloud cover and a return to southerly winds will result in
warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Our area will have another chance of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper trough is progged
to move into the southern Plains. The details are more uncertain
that far out, however. After highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s
Wednesday, temperatures may be a little cooler Thursday in the wake
of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

As of 635 PM, thunderstorms were over parts of San Saba and Mason
Counties, and moving southeast. The cold front has advanced south
across our northern and central counties, and will move through
the southern part of our area this evening and early tonight.
Behind the front, north to northeast will be 10-15 knots with
gusts 19-23 knots overnight into Friday morning. Some low cloud
cover with MVFR ceilings is expected to develop, from north to
south across the area late this evening and tonight. More
extensive cloud cover with ceilings 3000-5000 ft is expected
to develop overnight into Friday morning across the area.
By late Friday morning/midday, should have cloud cover over
the southern half of the area, with scattered coverage north to
I-20. No rain is expected at our TAF sites tonight through midday
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  97  62  80  62 /  10  10  30  20
Junction    99  64  82  63 /  20  10  30  20
Brownwood   88  60  78  60 /  60  40  10  10
Sweetwater  82  59  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       96  63  78  62 /  20  10  40  30
Brady       91  63  77  61 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...19