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000
FXUS65 KTFX 081145
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
445 AM MST Sun Dec 8 2013

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday...A northerly wind flow aloft will reside
over the region for the next 3 days. As a result...upper level
disturbances will move southward through the region each
day...producing a chance for light snow across much of North
Central Montana during the day...and a light snow over Southwest
MT mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. In terms of snow
accumulations...generally less than a half inch of snowfall is
expected today and again on Monday. However...the upper level
disturbance looks a bit stronger on Tuesday...and a snowfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches looks possible over the Northern
Plains...with up to 3 inches in the mountains...(generally less
than an inch in the Southwest). Temperatures will warm today ahead
of the first disturbance...as Cut Bank is already above zero.
However...cold air will return tonight as temperatures fall below
zero in many areas. For Monday and Tuesday...the increased winds
will try to advect in some warmer air...with afternoon
temperatures climbing into the teens and 20s. Thus...with fairly
cold air in place today and tonight...the wind chill advisory has
been expanded to cover all areas through 10 am Monday.
Additionally...with gusty winds expected over Central and North
Central MT...a blowing snow advisory is now in effect until 5 PM
Monday...(but not for the Helena Valley). Brusda

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Medium range models continue to
agree that Montana will be underneath an unsettled northwest flow
aloft by midweek. The unsettled flow and occasional shortwave energy
remains favorable for slight chance to low chance pops across the
forecast area but there still does not appear to be any likelihood
for a large scale storm system. Also, shortwave ridging should move
over the region on Thursday for generally dry conditions with
temperatures near seasonable averages. However, unsettled flow
returns for Friday and Saturday before another weak transient ridge
improves conditions once again on Sunday. Overall, the entire medium
range period will see breezy westerly winds with temperatures that
are much milder than those seen over the last week. mpj

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
Upper level trough and associated surface cold front will continue
to move south through 00Z. Areas of light snow and blowing snow will
cause IFR/MVFR ceilings as the front moves south through Central
Montana. Winds diminish around 00Z Monday with skies temporarily
clearing out behind the system. However, mid and high level clouds
increase after 06Z as the next weak system approaches the forecast
area. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  10  -7  19   7 /  60  10  50  20
CTB  10  -7  15   5 /  50  10  50  20
HLN   6  -7  16   8 /  40  10  30  20
BZN   3 -12  13   3 /  20  20  20  20
WEY   4 -21   5 -14 /  30  20  30  30
DLN   3 -13  11   1 /  20  10  20  10
HVR   5 -12  19   3 /  50  10  50  20
LWT   9  -7  21   8 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLOOD ADVISORY until further notice for the Gallatin River near
Gallatin Gateway.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY until 10 AM MST Monday Beaverhead...Blaine...
Broadwater...Cascade...Central and Southern Lewis and Clark...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Gallatin...Hill...Jefferson...Judith Basin...Liberty...
Madison...Meagher...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern
Rocky Mountain Front...Toole.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 PM MST Monday Blaine...Cascade...
Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...
Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain
Front...Southern Rocky Mountain Front...Toole...Central and
Southern Lewis and Clark.

&&

$$

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