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000
FXUS65 KTFX 241152
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
550 AM MDT Fri May 24 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Friday through Sunday...Friday afternoon and Saturday continue to
show a decrease in widespread precipitation as the upper level trough
retrogrades back towards the Canadian Coast. More shortwave troughs
will move across the area...however they appear relatively
weak...and more likely to cause scattered showers than widespread
precipitation. Have increased the chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday morning and afternoon as models show another
decent shortwave trough moving through the area. Exact placement of
the disturbance is not in great agreement so have trended pops still
in the chance and slight chances across much of the area with the
highest percentages along the Rocky Mountain Front and other higher
terrain where the topographical enhancement could be enough to help
initiate convection. Temperatures remain near seasonal averages as
the drying trend helps temperatures rebound for the first half of
the weekend. Suk

Sunday night through Friday...The period begins with a persistent
upper trof over the Pacific Northwest. Short wave energy rotating
out from the base of the trof will continue to ride the southwest
flow aloft into the state. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop through Monday. By Tuesday, the models bring
another upper trof across the Rockies. Lift and diffluent flow aloft
will be strongest over southwest Montana Tuesday afternoon resulting
in another round of showers and thunderstorms. Isolated convective
activity will be possible across central and northern portions of
the county warning area. The remainder of the period, Wednesday
through Friday, will be characterized by continued unsettled
conditions as the area remains under the influence of a broad upper
trof. Temperatures will remain generally above seasonal averages to
start the period with readings dropping below seasonal averages by
the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1150Z
An upper disturbance continues to move across the area this morning
with widespread showers accompanying this feature. Rain will
gradually end by 18z as the disturbance moves north into Canada and
skies will begin to clear. Westerly surface winds will increase
after 18z and become gusty at times. MVFR conditions prevail this
morning due to low ceilings and rain. Conditions will become
predominately VFR after 18z. Mountains obscured through 18z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Widespread rain and high elevation snow will continue
at times through Friday morning. Snow levels should lower enough
to lessen the impact of moderate precipitation on the remaining
mountain snowpack in these areas, however local streams and rivers
could see delayed rises through the upcoming weekend. Persons
living near or planning activities near the mentioned areas during
the holiday weekend should be alert for rising river levels and
increased stream flows.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  65  38  69  42 /  30  10  10  20
CTB  61  37  66  39 /  30  10  10  20
HLN  64  40  70  45 /  30  10  20  20
BZN  66  36  72  41 /  50  10  20  10
WEY  59  33  67  38 /  10   0  10  10
DLN  62  37  70  42 /  30  10  30  20
HVR  69  41  74  44 /  60  10  10  40
LWT  64  40  69  45 /  50  10  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Suk
LONG TERM...EMANUEL
AVIATION...EMANUEL

weather.gov/greatfalls