Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 281556
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
955 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FORTHCOMING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POP, SKY, AND
WEATHER GRIDS. WILDFIRE SMOKE AND FIRE WEATHER ISSUES REMAIN
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY LOOK
GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1145Z.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA BETWEEN 20Z AND
03Z BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT
IMPACT ON TERMINALS IS LOW. WIDESPREAD SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND 18Z BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
03Z SATURDAY. MPJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 351 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
WILL AGAIN BE FIRE WEATHER. AN ADVANCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURE
AFTER THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEHIND THE
FRONT...HOWEVER WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES RH VALUES SHOULD NOT
BE AS CRITICAL. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
SINCE THE FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS WASHINGTON AND IDAHO NO CLEAR AIR
WILL EXIST TO PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE SMOKEY CONDITIONS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAIN PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF
CANADA AND RIDGING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. MONTANA
REMAINS BENEATH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AS THEY EXTEND THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS IT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF MY FORECAST
AREA BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE GLACIER PARK REGION INTO THE
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT HAVE
TRENDED SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. STILL NO SIGN OF A SEASON-
ENDING EVENT FOR WILDFIRES SO AM KEEPING MENTION OF SMOKE IN THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME. MPJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATURDAY WILL BE A NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY AS AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
HUMIDITY WILL FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, AS GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 112, 114, 116, 117, 118, WHICH INCLUDES THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT, THE ADJACENT PLAINS, AND AREAS SOUTH TO HELENA.
SUK/COULSTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  90  62  91  58 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  87  56  87  51 /  10  10  10  10
HLN  90  56  90  53 /  10  10  20  20
BZN  88  54  91  53 /   0  10  20  10
WEY  79  42  81  44 /  10  10  10  20
DLN  87  55  88  51 /  10  10  20  20
HVR  90  58  94  58 /   0  10  10  30
LWT  88  59  94  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MTZ112-114-116>118.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


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