Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTFX 270242
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
842 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS FAR NORTH AS HELENA. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW IN THE IDAHO PANHANDLE, WILL REMAIN WEAK. UPDATED
TO FRESHEN FIRST PERIOD POPS, WX, AND QPF. ZELZER &&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2337Z.

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL KEEP THE AIRMASS
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AS
WELL AS OVER MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 583 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
WASHINGTON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST AND SOUTH. MOISTURE PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDS FROM HAVRE TO LEWISTOWN TO
POINTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS PLUME AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY SETTING
UP ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROF THURSDAY AND
FINALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA, BUT NOT BEFORE DELIVERING ANOTHER
DAY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY DISPLACE
THE REMNANT OPEN WAVE DEPARTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER ENSUES FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT IS
INDICATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH WESTERN CANADA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE NEXT WAVE
ACROSS OREGON ON MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE THUS TRENDED POPS UP WITH
COOLER TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK. NUTTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  68  48  68 /  20  50  40  70
CTB  43  67  45  65 /  30  60  40  60
HLN  50  69  49  68 /  40  60  40  60
BZN  43  66  43  63 /  40  50  50  60
WEY  36  59  35  57 /  50  50  50  50
DLN  42  63  44  62 /  40  60  50  50
HVR  48  70  46  75 /  30  50  40  60
LWT  46  65  46  65 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.