Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 130000
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH HAS BROUGHT NICE WEATHER TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
THE PAST THREE DAYS...WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AND REACH OUR AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. WHILE THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY AND SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IN NORTHERN NEW YORK...AS WELL AS ADDISON COUNTY AND NW RUTLAND
COUNTY IN VERMONT. HAVE OPTED TO HANDLE THESE WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT RATHER THAN IN THE ZONE FORECAST. EXPECTING
THESE TO DISSIPATE AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. WILL GO WITH A MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 416 PM EDT SATURDAY...DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHALLOW
CUMULUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN FORMED OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ACTUALLY BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE AREA. PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT TO HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. LOOK LIKE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 416 PM EDT SATURDAY...COMPOSITE ANALYSIS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SUGGESTS BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON SUNDAY. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FASTER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ON SUNDAY SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WELL. THUS HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR ALL AREAS...FROM LATE MORNING ON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK...EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN VERMONT...AND MID-LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. AGAIN AT THIS TIME
NOT THINKING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT EXISTS OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN...THE COLD FRONT
JUST TO OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...AND
NO REAL SIGNS OF ANY FORCING. THIS SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORIES. SHOULD EVEN BE
SOME SUN AND WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS AS
OPPOSED TO JUST UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY DUE TO ALL THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 416 PM EDT SATURDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF IN BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH
REGARDS TO POSITION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...RESULTING IN MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAN SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. 100 KNOT
JET AT 250MB WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH LOW LEVEL JET AT
850MB SETTING UP TO OUR SW...MEANING BEST JET DYNAMICS APPEAR TO BE
TO OUR SOUTH AT BOTH UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO
-4 POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY AROUND WILL KEEP THREAT OF
THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS QUESTIONABLE IF
CLOUD COVER SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. UPPER
TROUGH BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE...WINDS SHIFT WEST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE IN THE DAY WITH
PWATS DROPPING FROM OVER AN INCH ON TUESDAY TO 0.5-0.75 INCH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER TROUGH ALSO WEAKENING AS 12 HOUR HT CHANGE AT 500MB
SHOWS SOME HEIGHT RISES LATE IN THE DAY. WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH DRYING CONDITIONS
SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

COME FRIDAY MORNING...SURFACE RIDGING PREVALENT OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH
DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES. SURFACE RIDING WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT
LOOKS TO REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...850MB TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE REPLACED BY SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
BUT GFS WARMS UP TEMPS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...BRINGING BACK ABOUT 12C
BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE M-U70S IN
THE VALLEYS AND 60S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL
COOL INTO THE U50S-L60S IN THE VALLEYS AND M40S-M50S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIOD IFR TO
MVFR AT KSLK/KMPV. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST THERE
HOWEVER...AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY KEEP THOSE SITES
MIXED OUT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME THUNDER NEXT 3 OR 4
HOURS IN A NARROW BAND BETWEEN KBTV AND KRUT. ONLY TAF SITE WHERE
ITS POSSIBLE TO GET A SHOWER WOULD BE KRUT SO ADDED SOME VCSH FOR
A FEW HOURS. AFT 14-15Z IN NORTHERN NEW YORK APPROACHING BAND OF
RAIN WILL REDUCE VIS TO MVFR CATEGORY WITH VFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE VFR
THROUGH 00Z WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRIEF IFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALL TAF SITES REDUCING TO MVFR...OTHERWISE
VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...TRENDING TOWARDS VFR WED AND
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 350 PM EDT SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TONIGHT
INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THE 15 TO 25
KNOT RANGE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WAVES BUILDING INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE AND CREATING ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON/WGH
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...NF/HANSON
MARINE...EVENSON







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