Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 211136
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEGUN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST UNITED STATES. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND DEVELOP AN EASTERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE
FROM THE ATLANTIC LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE NET RESULT OF THIS
SCENARIO WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 728 AM EDT TUESDAY...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A LITTLE SNOW UP AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS MOUNT MANSFIELD AND WHITEFACE REPORTING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32. THIS SHOULD LAST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. OTHERWISE. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR WEST EARLY THIS MORNING
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AND AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY EAST TODAY...THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO START CUTTING OFF
TONIGHT AS IT REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL ONLY REACH THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY.
AS A RESULT...WE ARE LOOKING AT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...
THERMAL PROFILE INDICATES IT WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN A DEEPER EASTERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT. HOWEVER...THE
DURATION OF THE EASTERLY FETCH WILL NOT BE TOO LONG AS EVENTUALLY
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME ON THURSDAY.
BOTTOM LINE...AFTER A DISTINCT WEST TO EAST GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT...LESS WEST MORE EAST...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND WESTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL...AND WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW...LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 40S EACH DAY AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE MUCH TALKED ABOUT LARGE UPPER LOW THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM CAPE COD 00Z FRI TO THE GULF OF MAINE AND CANADIAN MARITIMES
BY 12Z SAT. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ANOTHER AND
UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LATEST ECMWF DIGS THE
TROUGH MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS OFFERING A CONTINUATION OF
OUR COLD AUTUMN PATTERN WITH THE 500MB LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MAINE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON THE
EURO YET...BUT WITH ITS RECENT GOOD PERFORMANCE IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS IT`S HARD TO IGNORE. WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE
CONSENSUS BLEND AND OFFER TEMPS JUST A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO IN THE
40S AND 50S. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AS WELL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE MIGHT SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE COLD AND WET
CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON THE WEEKEND SHIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPS
WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ALREADY...AND WILL
BE IN AND OUT OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. NO REAL
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY ARE EXPECTED...BUT CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT ALL SITES...AND IFR AT KMSS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE N-NE AT 5-10KTS...WITH SUSTAINED 10-15KTS
FROM THE NE AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

12Z WED - 12Z FRI...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH PREVAILING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND COVERAGE OF RAIN DIMINISHES OVER TIME.
SOME LINGERING IFR/MVFR LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO
MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE STARTING OUT LOW BEFORE THE START OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS THE
AREA ARE GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FEET BELOW NORMAL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL COME OVER A LONG PERIOD OF TIME...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND WE
ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. RIVER LEVELS WILL RISE AS A
RESULT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED NONETHELESS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...EVENSON







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