Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 031132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Cloudy skies with scattered rain and snow showers will persist
across northern areas today with partial sunshine possible in the
southern valleys by this afternoon. Fairly quiet and seasonable
weather returns by Sunday into early next week with just a low
chance of rain or snow showers on Monday. A more active pattern
develops by the middle and later part of next week as low pressure
and deeper moisture push into the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 623 AM EST Saturday...Forecast remains in good shape as of
630 am, thus no changes needed at this time.

Prior discussion from 245 AM EST Saturday...
Mainly a persistence forecast will be offered over the next 24
hours as moist northwesterly flow lingers on the back side of
large-scale cyclonic gyre exiting into the maritime provinces of
Canada. One final upper shortwave embedded within this flow
will swing through the area this afternoon, so the idea of
mainly cloudy skies with scattered to numerous snow showers in
elevated terrain across the north continues to look reasonable.
Here minor accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches will be
possible over 1000 feet today with localized amounts into the
3-4 inch range possible at the higher summits. Some partial
sunshine will be possible on the New York side of the Champlain
Valley and in the upper Connecticut River Valley of southern
Vermont as boundary layer deepens slightly and adiabatic descent
fosters low level drying. Here the shower coverage will be
considerably less, perhaps just a passing light sprinkle or
flurry from time to time. High temperatures remain seasonably
cool ranging through the 30s.

By tonight variable clouds persist as northwesterly flow continues
across the region. The clouds will tend to erode across the lower
elevations through time, becoming increasingly confined to the
northern higher terrain and the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley
as boundary layer flow remains significantly blocked. Still looking
at continued scattered snow shower activity across the higher
terrain of the north where some minor additional accumulations of a
dusting to 2 inches will be possible, though this too will wane over
time as depth of moisture thins. Did lean on the milder side of
temperature guidance (blended bias-corrected data) given the
lingering clouds offering lows in the mid to upper 20s for most
spots and locally to near 30 in the Champlain Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 AM EST Saturday...Surface and upper level ridging will
be over the North Country on Sunday and region will have dry
weather through Sunday night. Surface and upper level trofs will
approach from our West and bring some light rain and snow
on Monday, any accumulations will be light. Temperatures will
run a couple degrees below normal for Sunday through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 246 AM EST Saturday...Monday night and Tuesday will
feature some dry weather as another ridge briefly builds over
the area. Tuesday looks to be the day with the best chance for
any sunshine. The weather pattern will become more unsettled
from Tuesday night onward with several chances for light rain
and snow showers once again. GFS and ECMWF still not quite
coming into line from Day 4 onward. Have chance for
precipitation mentioned every forecast period, though still lots
of uncertainty. Right now best chance for precipitation will be
Thursday and Thursday night as a surface low crosses just north
of our forecast area along with its associated fronts. The GFS
is faster than the ECMWF with this feature. Both models though
show precipitation lingering with lots of wrap around moisture
headed into the weekend with low pressure very slowly departing
Eastern Canada. Temperatures will trend colder next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 12Z Sunday...BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR through much of the
period as upper trough slowly pulls out of the area and
scattered shsn continue. Higher terrain will be obscured. MVFR
most prevalent at KMPV/KSLK where brief IFR conds may be
possible through early afternoon in scattered/numerous -shsn.
Elsewhere only VCSH needed at valley/lower elevation terminals
as activity will be more scant. Winds west to northwesterly 6 to
12 knots and occasionally gusty to 20 kts through 00Z, then
abating.

Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday...

12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday...Trending mainly VFR with high
pressure building into the area. Periods of MVFR ceilings
possible at KMPV/KSLK through 18Z Sunday.

12Z Monday through 12Z Tuesday...trending BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR cigs
with scattered areas of light rain or snow, mainly at KMSS/KSLK.
Brief IFR possible at these terminals with this activity.

12Z Tuesday through 06Z Wednesday...VFR/high pressure.

06Z Wednesday onward...trending MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...JMG


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