Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 211140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 740 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AT THIS
TIME AND HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECTING MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST
VERMONT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES MADE TO CURRENT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK MOVING INTO WESTERN VERMONT AT
THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH MAINLY HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR
TODAY FOR SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING MUCH IF ANY QPF ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST
VERMONT TODAY. BEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE
TO ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SOUTHWEST
VERMONT. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW TO
MID 70S FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECTING RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO
TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. STILL COULD BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND SOUTHWEST VERMONT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HAVE
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY... BUT EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS SOUTH FROM
CANADA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AND
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT THURSDAY...VERY QUIET AND STRAIGHT FORWARD FCST FOR
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...WHICH WL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY DEVELOPS
WEDS INTO THURS OF NEXT WEEK...WITH REGARDS TO NORTHERN STREAM
TROF AND ASSOCIATED POSITION OF SFC COLD FRNT. GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS THIS SUMMER FOR LESS WAA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF TROF AND
FASTER SFC COLD FRNT ARRIVAL TIMES...WL USE THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
WEDS/THURS TIME PERIOD. THIS SUPPORTS A FLATTER MID/UPPER LVL
RIDGE AND WARMEST 85H TEMPS STAYING JUST TO OUR SOUTH...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS WARMING
BTWN 14-16C BY 00Z WEDS...EXPECT HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 90 IN THE WARMER CPV/SLV ON TUES. IN
ADDITION...SOUTHERLY FLW WL INCREASE THE SFC DWPTS INTO THE
60S...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS ANTICIPATED. LATEST GFS/ECMWF
SHOW SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED 5H VORTS SLIDING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON
TUES...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM NEAR THE BORDER
ON TUES. WL KEEP FCST DRY ATTM...GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM RIDGE ACRS OUR CWA. THE COMBINATION OF POTENT 5H
VORT IN DEVELOPING S/W TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SFC COLD
FRNT WL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BY WEDS. COOLER
TEMPS WL ALSO ARRIVE BY WEDS/THURS...WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS
FALLING BACK BTWN 8-10C BY 00Z THURS. THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT IF THE FRNT IS SLOWER AND THE GFS
THERMAL FIELDS ARE REALIZED THEN TEMPS WEDS COULD BE WELL INTO THE
80S TO LOWER 90S. I WOULD EXPECT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
POSITION OF TROF DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF RIDGE/ASSOCIATED
THERMAL PROFILES BY THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNDAY/MONDAY WL
FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD
DAYS...RESULTING IN TYPICAL MID AUGUST WEATHER FOR OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....CRNT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ACRS NORTHERN NY/CPV ATTM...SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL VT. VIS/CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WL MENTION MAINLY VFR IN THE PREVAILING GROUP
WITH TEMPO FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH VIS BTWN 3-5SM BTWN 12-15Z.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WL BE POSSIBLE
ACRS NORTHERN NY TAF SITES THIS AFTN...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
IN THE HEAVIER STORMS POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS. A SLOW CLRING TREND
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 21Z...WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS. THINKING CLOUDS AND
WINDS WL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/BR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SFC HIGH
PRES BUILDING INTO THE REGION. MORNING FOG WL BE LIKELY AT SLK/MPV
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS BOTH SAT AND SUNDAY MORNINGS BTWN 07Z-
13Z. LOOK FOR MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES AT MSS AND RUTLAND.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER







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