Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 311108
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
IN THE FLOW ALOFT BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER PLEASANT
SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS
UNSETTLED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 643 AM EDT FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING JUST
NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WILL PROVIDE THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY/CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR SPRINKLE TO OUR NORTHERNMOST MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S AND DEWPOINTS COMFORTABLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 347 AM EDT FRIDAY...MOVING ON INTO TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND
THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY FAST
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LOW TAKES RESIDENCE OVER
HUDSON`S BAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION COMING FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FIRST SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND LATEST UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED. LATEST MODELS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY BUT SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS ENERGY SHIFTS THROUGH. LOWS RETURN TO MORE COMFORTABLE
VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER SLIGHTLY
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH WITH A LITTLE BETTER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AS TEMPS ALOFT COOL AND LAPSE
RATE STEEPEN SO WE`LL BE LOOKING AT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM, BUT OVERALL THEY SHOULD MORE OF THE GARDEN VARIETY TYPE AND
NOT SEVERE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. WE`LL BE
IN-BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT SUMMER
DAY EXPECTED WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT FRIDAY...PERSISTENCE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD UPPER TROUGHING AND
SEASONAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
TIED TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE MEAN
EASTERN CANADA TROUGH, WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE FEATURES
SWINGING THROUGH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN TIMING AND EVIDENCE OF
INSTABILITY/INCREASING 0-6KM SHEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTION COULD
TREND ON THE MORE ROBUST SIDE. TIME WILL TELL. OUTSIDE OF THIS
TIME PERIOD, SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS (20- 40%) WILL BE
MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUGGESTING THAT WHILE DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE GENERAL RULE, A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
FROM TIME TO TIME. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL BY AND
LARGE RANGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS WITH DAILY
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 (SLIGHTLY WARMER ON MONDAY)
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE EQUIPMENT SECTION BELOW FOR KRUT DATA OUTAGE
INFORMATION...

THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT
CLOUDS IN THE 060-090AGL RANGE, BKN AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AROUND 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 12-00Z THEN
LIGHT. AFTER 00Z CIGS TREND OCCASIONALLY BKN FROM 035-060AGL
WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH SHOULD SPARK SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY AT
KMSS/KSLK TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ENCROACH TOWARD THE
KPBG/KBTV/KMPV TERMINALS AFTER 06Z BUT CONFIDENCE LOWER. BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY AT KSLK.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF
DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AND AGAIN BY NEXT MONDAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS. PATCHY IFR IN BR/FG POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK 06-12Z
EACH MORNING, BUT SYNOPTIC SETUP NOT GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PERSISTENT OR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...JMG


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