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000
FXUS61 KBTV 242007
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD...AND IN
SOME CASES FLOODING RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND BREEZY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH GRADUALLY MODERATE BY MONDAY AS DRY WEATHER RETURNS.
THEREAFTER...WARM TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST REMAINS MORE OR LESS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT AS DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
AND BECOMES GRADUALLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER ENERGY WILL CAPTURE A DEVELOPING SFC LOW RIDING
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND DRIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. INCREASING
OMEGA/FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE LOW TRACK ALL
ARGUE FOR CONTINUED CATEGORICAL POPS (90-100%) THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD. AFTER A
PERIOD OF EARLY EVENING SHOWERS...THE FAR WEST...NAMELY THE SLV
WILL TREND DRIER. LOWS QUITE CHILLY UNDER CONTINUED NORTHERLY
BREEZES...GENERALLY 35 TO 45 WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 407 PM EDT FRIDAY...BY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DEEP
UPPER CLOSED H5 TROUGH AND CAPTURED/OCCLUDING SFC LOW NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD.
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT COUNTIES WHERE WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCH RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OUR RECENT
BOUT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH
SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES
(SEE HYDRO DISC BELOW).

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CHILLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 40S FROM THE ADIRONDACKS
EASTWARD...THOUGH MILDER ACROSS THE SLV WHERE LACK OF DYNAMICAL
COOLING AFFECTS FROM PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW READINGS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...35 TO 45 WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AT THE
SUMMIT LEVEL ABOVE 2500-3000 FEET.

BY SUNDAY...DEEP UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FILL AND BEGIN TO TRUDGE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THUS SHOWERY WEATHER IN THE
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY END OVER TIME AS SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HIGHS A TAD MILDER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S DACKS EAST...AND 50S TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE SLV BY DAYS END
WHERE SOME SUN POSSIBLE LATE.

CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH
LOSES INFLUENCE AND IS REPLACED BY BROAD RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES. SKIES SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND PTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LOWS BOTTOM OUT
GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN FAIR
AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THRU
THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS REPLACES THE EXITING LOW FROM
THE WEEKEND. SOME CLDS FOR THE NE KINGDOM MONDAY
MORNING...OTHERWISE PRECIP-FREE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. FOR WED INTO FRI...MDLS DO BRING WARM FRNT ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE. THIS SETUP WILL FOCUS PRECIP
INTO THE REGION. SOME MDL TIMING/PLACEMENT AND AMT OF QPF POSSIBLE
AS FRNT MEANDERS THRU AREA. DIFFERENCES ARE DUE TO POTENTIAL TRW
ALONG BOUNDARY. WITH 925 TEMPS RANGING FROM +16C TO +22C AND 850
TEMPS +12C TO +17C...AMPLE INSTABILITY APPEARS AVAILABLE TO
TRIGGER CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. BY
FRIDAY...FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
AS FRNT SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR TEMPS IN EXTENDED...STAYING CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS GOING FROM THE 60S MONDAY TO THE LOW 80S
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS AIRMASS SHIFTS FROM CAA ON WNW FLOW MONDAY TO
STRONG WAA MID-TO-END OF WEEK AS STRONG THERMAL RIDGE SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MAINLY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF
SITES DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN/FG.
WINDS MAINLY NNE 10-20KTS...W/ 10KTS SEEN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY AT
TIMES FOR MSS/SLK/RUT.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A SFC
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE TAF
SITES THRU THE WEEKEND. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS SFC
LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY. A SLOW CLEARING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...W/ VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 407 PM FRIDAY... UPPER/CLOSED LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WHILE STABILITY WILL LIMIT EXCESSIVE HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES...36-48 HOUR TOTALS WILL NONETHELESS RANGE FROM 1.5-3.0
INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-2 INCHES IN THE
ADIRONDACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT. LOCALLY RUN SSHP MODEL
HYDROGRAPHS SUGGEST THESE TOTALS WILL LIKELY BRING NUMEROUS SMALL
STREAMS TO BANKFULL...AND SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS INTO FLOOD BY
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. THUS A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...THE RIVERS OF MOST CONCERN WOULD BE
THE MISSISQUOI...LAMOILLE AND PASSUMPSIC IN VERMONT...AND THE
AUSABLE RIVER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
RAINFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS...MOST RIVER CRESTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...LOOKING TO BE A PRETTY MISERABLE START TO
THE PRIME BOATING SEASON ON LAKE CHAMPLAIN. A STORM MORE TYPICAL
OF WINTER WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER THE LAKE. EXPECT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE FROM
TONIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. FOR THAT REASON, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
AND WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE WINDS FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS.

THESE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS, WITH
WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN LAKE ULTIMATELY BUILDING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6
FEET LATE SATURDAY. A STEADY RAIN AND TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S
ON SATURDAY WILL ADD TO THE MISERY.

THE OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND FOR BOATING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ002>012-016>019.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-031-034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN
HYDROLOGY...JMG
MARINE...NASH