Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 030540
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
140 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM QUEBEC AND ONTARIO TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT BEFORE EXITING TO OUR SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
FRIDAY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID...AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1255 AM EDT THURSDAY...FEW SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
THUNDER CONTINUE NORTH OF THE BORDER. ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AS
IT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH LATEST UPDATE...JUST A
FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER NORTH. SOME
AREAS OF FOG...BUT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT IT
FROM BEING AS DENSE AS PREVIOUS COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 331 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...NW-N WIND SHIFT AND MID-LEVEL VORT
GRADUALLY PUSH SWD ACROSS VT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS THURSDAY.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL LIKELY SEE AN EXPANSION IN THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
REACHES S-CENTRAL VT...AND ULTIMATELY EXITS OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE INDICATED AREAS OF 30-40 POPS
ACROSS S-CENTRAL VT DURING THE MID-DAY PERIOD THURSDAY BEFORE
FRONT EXITS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL SEE A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
MASS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH FOR THE AFTN HRS...ALONG
WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTN. STRONG DROP IN PW VALUES
LATE IN THE DAY AS WELL WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPR 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...WITH THURSDAY SEEING 80-85F MOST SECTIONS.

STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT...DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BECOMES REESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH NIL POPS. VERY QUIET PERIOD...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL FOG 06-12Z BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. DAYLIGHT HRS
FRIDAY SHOULD BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOWER
50S. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS...BUT A FEW MID-UPR 40S IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF
VERMONT/S NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND WITHIN THE VALLEYS OF THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...VERY WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVERHEAD SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
FORECAST 80-85 SATURDAY...INCREASING TO 83-88 ON SUNDAY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY
IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD MONDAY-WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR SOME WESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE OF A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST. HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 85-90 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES (15-18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). TUESDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
WARMTH PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE STRONGER SYSTEM
LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS STILL 80-85. LOWS UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SOME MVFR/IFR BR AND SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS AROUND
UNDER A BROADER OVERCAST CIRRUS DECK. AFTER 14Z, SURFACE FRONT
SHIFTING THROUGH WILL BRING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSRA TO THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KSLK TO
KMPV THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN VFR. BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAINLY VFR. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VLIFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY
AT MPV/SLK, AND POSSIBLE AT MSS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...MUCCILLI
AVIATION...LAHIFF



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