Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 290821
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
421 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Memorial Day weekend continues to see well above normal
temperatures with daytime max temps between 10 to 20 degrees above
normal. Increasing low level moisture will allow for higher
relative humidities and an increasing chance for widespread
showers with scattered thunderstorms possible on Sunday and
Memorial Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...interesting weather set up today. upper
level ridge still hangs tough over our eastern zones today as an
upper level trof approaches from the west. also have a backdoor
front which will be edging into our zones east of the Greens from
NH bringing clouds and cooler temps. Expect our third 90 degree
day in a row here in the Champlain valley with warm air still in
place and lots of sunshine this morning. With approaching
shortwave trof and some surface based instability will have some
showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon...mainly across
northern New York. PWATS surge to about 1.8" this
afternoon...therefore feel that we could have heavy rain with any
thunderstorms and have indicated this in the forecast. do feel
that models are overdoing the cape once again. heavy rain in
showers and thunderstorms continues into the first half of the
overnight hours then storms will die off as they move eastward
into more stable air and with loss of daytime heating.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight as plenty of cloud cover
remains in place...generally mid 60s and upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Surface front then pushes slowly across
the area during Monday with continued solid chances of showers and
a few thunderstorms. Deeper moisture plume pulls east over time so
better shower coverage will become increasingly confined to our
eastern counties as the day progresses. Scattered additional
rainfall totals of up to a quarter inch will be possible across
the east with lesser amounts further west, especially in the St
Lawrence Valley. A trailing, rather flat upper trough then pulls
through the area by Tuesday with little fanfare other than some
variable cloud cover and perhaps a spotty light shower or sprinkle
across the northern mountains. Temperatures remain seasonably warm
during the period but not to degree of recent warmth - mainly mid
70s to lower 80s for highs and overnight lows Monday night in the
50s to around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather then continues through
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with mean high pressure in
control of regional conditions. Little airmass change is expected
with daily highs in the 70s to around 80 and overnight lows in the
50s to locally near 60.

By late week models remain broadly consistent in showing a
progressive shortwave trough and attendant front pulling east from
the Great Lakes/Midwest with a renewed threat of showers. Some
uncertainty in ascertaining which period(s) will have the greatest
threat of precipitation as longer-range solutions now showing an
evolution toward more pronounced upper longwave troughing across
the northeast by later next weekend. For now will concentrate
higher values in the Friday/Saturday time frame associated with
the frontal zone, beyond which things become somewhat unclear.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 06z Monday... Generally VFR with overnight IFR/LIFR mist
at SLK and possibly at MPV. Increasing risk for sct SHRA/TSRA
particularly after 16z Sunday at our NY terminals.

Similar to last night with some leftover high clouds. Areas of
mist likely starting at 06z at SLK. Boundary- layer flow is
slightly higher enough at mpv to keep any mist that may develop
there temporary. Winds initially light/terrain driven becoming
calm.

Any mist/light fog lifts early in the morning under strong
sunshine. Additional heating and increasing depth of moisture
should support at least scattered showers/possible storms. Latest
short-term guidance points to a start time around 16z off the
Adirondacks and then advancing eastward. Any thunderstorm capable
of heavy rain and associated brief IFR visibilities. Maintained
VCSH for this period with prevailing VFR conditions. Winds
becoming south/southwest 5-8 kts.

Outlook 06z Monday through Thursday... Mainly VFR with daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening.
Greatest coverage/threat appears to occur in the Monday early
evening time frame. Best chance for a dry day will be Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record maximum temperatures for today (May 29) are as follows:

                          5/29
BTV - Burlington        89 in 1978
MPV - Montpelier        87 in 1978
MSS - Massena           90 in 1978
St Johnsbury            92 in 1978
Mt Mansfield            77 in 1978

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...Neiles
CLIMATE...BTV


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