Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 040726
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
326 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY DAY TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SERVE AS THE
FOCUS FOR SOME SPOTTY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ON HOW FAR
NORTH SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE
STILL TARGETING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND POINTS SOUTHEASTWARD. LATEST
WATER VAPOR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE DIGGING/DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL TURN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY, TAPPING
INTO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY RIDING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ALSO OF NOTE ON CURRENT
UPSTREAM SATELLITE AND RADAR IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION/LIGHTNING MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO INDIANS. SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY COULD MAKE INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THE PREVIOUS FORECASTERS LEAD AND
MENTIONED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
DACKS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE ON INTO TONIGHT, WHILE WE`LL
HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, FORCING WILL BE THE MISSING
INGREDIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING AS THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF
AND SHIFTS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE TENN`S/KENTUCKY
BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. I`LL HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING, BUT WILL LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS, IT`LL BE ANOTHER TRICKY MAXT FORECAST FOR
TODAY, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY. BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES AT BOTH 10M AND
500M SHOW OUR SOURCE AIR COMES FROM COASTAL NH/ME WHERE TEMPS
YESTERDAY WERE MUCH LIKE HERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SURFACE FLOW
DOES TURN A LITTLE MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SO I THINK WE`LL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND I DON`T THINK WE`LL GO MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 50S EAST,
TO UPPER 50S WEST. LIGHT FLOW AND LOTS OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TONIGHT`S TEMPS MILD AS WELL, THOUGH PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL IN
THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP BEST DYNAMIC FORCING
SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE AREAS BUT
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THE CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE REGION
COMBINED WITH A LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SUGGESTS
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE TEMPERED JUST A BIT. SHOULD SEE
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 326 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST AS A STRONG
UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LIKE THE IDEA IN THE FORECAST OF MENTIONING SHOWERS LIKELY
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY THIS
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND IS
REPLACED WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO
THE 60S ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
FROM THE SOUTH. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR
WILL MAINLY COME FROM CIGS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR VSBY TO LOWER
TO MVFR BEING AT KSLK AND KRUT. AFTER 18Z, CIGS REMAIN LARGELY
MVFR BUT THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BACK TO
VFR AT KBTV AND KMSS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
06Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z FRI.
12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 806 PM EDT TUESDAY...DUE TO A TELEPHONE LINE ISSUE...THE
AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SYSTEM (ASOS) AT THE PLATTSBURGH
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (KPBG) IS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT OBSERVATIONS TO
THE REST OF THE WORLD AT THIS TIME. THE FAA ATLANTIC OPERATIONS
CONTROL CENTER HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS OUTAGE. THERE IS NO
ESTIMATE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS TO WHEN THE TELEPHONE LINE
OUTAGE AT THE KPBG ASOS WILL BE RESTORED TO SERVICE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...LAHIFF
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV



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