Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290239
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA TONIGHT...WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT MONDAY...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS
EVENING UNDER BROAD DEFORMATION BAND ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NORTH/NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW. HEAVIEST RAINS
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY CONVERGENCE DUE TO NORTH WINDS AND BLOCKED FLOW
(FROUDE NUMBERS LESS THAN 0.25) HAS LED TO LOCAL ENHANCEMENT
THERE. ANY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. BACK EDGE OF WEAKENING RAIN SHIELD NOW MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WE SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN THE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH BLOCKED FLOW CONTINUING UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND FROUDE
NUMBERS AROUND 0.5 THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING
UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE A GRADUAL DRYING AND CLEARING TREND
ANTICIPATED AFTER 06Z. LOWS IN THE 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST WITH A
FEW SPOT UPPER 40S POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY...LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL FEATURE CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION NEAR HUDSON BAY...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW ALOFT
ACRS OUR CWA. FCST CHALLENGE WL TIMING INDIVIDUAL S/W`S IN THE FLW
ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AVAILABLE. ON TUESDAY OUR
CWA IS BTWN SYSTEM WITH BETTER 850 TO 500MB MOISTURE ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH BETTER S/W ENERGY. HOWEVER...WITH BL
MOISTURE...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FROM SFC HEATING...AND WEAK
EMBEDDED 5H VORT...CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP SHOWER OR TWO ACRS THE
MTNS ON TUES AFTN. ANY SHOWERS WL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HRS
WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. TEMPS
WL BE IN THE U60S MTNS TO U70S CPV/SLV. ON WEDS LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED...BUT BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW
BETTER 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH CAPE
VALUES BTWN 300 AND 500 J/KG...AND WEAK 5H VORT APPROACHING OUR
WESTERN CWA BY 00Z THURS. THIS ALL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF CHC
POPS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. PROGGED 85H TEMPS
CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH WESTERLY FLW ALOFT...SUPPORTING HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 301 PM EDT MONDAY...EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK
GENERALLY DRY THOUGH SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED DOMINATED BY A SLOW-
MOVING/RETROGRADING UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE JAMES BAY REGION
AND A BUILDING ATLANTIC RIDGE ALOFT. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL
BE DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LOW FINALLY WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE SUNDAY WITH A
WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING ALOFT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH
SUNNIER/DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT TREND TOWARDS CLIMO FRO FRIDAY
ONWARD IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 50S
TO LOCALLY NEAR 60 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SLOW MOVING RAIN SHIELD OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST. AS A
RESULT...MVFR CEILINGS AT KMSS WILL BECOME VFR AFTER 02Z AND
REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
FOR KSLK AND KPBG EXPECT IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
12Z...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CEILINGS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AFTER 12Z. IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT KBTV THROUGH ABOUT 08Z DUE TO RAIN AND
LOW CLOUDS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR BY ABOUT 15Z. KMPV AND
KRUT WILL HAVE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AFTER 12Z AND REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE...WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z BEFORE WEAKENING AND BACKING
TO THE WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

00Z WED - 12Z THU...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEDS AFTERNOON. IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY
POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV/SLK.

12Z THU - 00Z SUN...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT...997MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
ALBANY NY WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE TIGHT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN THRU 06Z TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT
AND WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ABOVE THE WATER WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN A DROP IN SFC WINDS
TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE OPEN WATERS
TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...EVENSON/LAHIFF
MARINE...TABER





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