Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
FXUS61 KBTV 231216
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
A low pressure area will develop along the mid Atlantic coast
today and will move slowly northeast and be just south of Cape
Cod by early Tuesday night. This low pressure area will bring
snow and sleet and some freezing rain to the north country late
tonight and Tuesday. This low will then move northeast into the
Canadian maritimes by Wednesday morning.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 716 AM EST Monday...Current forecast in good shape, so no
changes have been made.
Previous discussion from 421 AM EST Monday...An upper ridge
combined with a surface ridge of high pressure will keep low
cloud cover in place across the north country today, with cloudy
skies expected and high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Models have continued trend of slowing the arrival time of
precipitation into the region tonight, with the models starting
precipitation between 7 PM and midnight across south central
Vermont, and then after midnight tonight across northern Vermont
and northern New York. Thus, have had to lower QPF amounts and
pops for tonight from the previous forecast, due to slower
onset of precipitation tonight. Expecting a mix of mainly snow
and sleet later tonight, with mainly snow on Tuesday. Expecting
mainly 3 to 7 inches of snow across the region through Tuesday,
with some locally higher amounts up to 8 inches possible.
Although some areas may see snow approaching winter storm
warning criteria, have held off on doing any upgrades at this
time as models have continued trend of slowing start time of
precipitation tonight. Thus, forecaster confidence in upgrading
advisories to warning at this time is low. Expecting snow
slowly to wind down Tuesday afternoon as GFS model showing a mid
level dry slot moving into the region.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Stacked closed low pressure system
off the southern coast of Long Island will gradually move north
and east as associated trough and vorticity continues to affect
the North Country Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Colder
air over Northern NY will result in mostly snow showers while
eastern VT will continue to have warm layer aloft resulting in
sleet or snow/sleet mix Tuesday night. Expect colder air to
filter in on W to NW flow Wednesday morning as the surface low
moves toward Gulf of Maine/Nova Scotia. Lingering upslope snow
possible before ridging aloft provides a break in precip most of
Wednesday. Snow/sleet accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches
possible, with higher amounts in the mtns possible. Temperatures
in the 20s Tuesday night will warm into the 30s on Wednesday.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 303 AM EST Monday...Late Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night, another area of surface low pressure will bring
precipitation to the North Country. This low will be associated
with 500mb shortwave with bulk of energy and moisture being to
our south and east. Therefore, only expecting light rain and/or
snow showers. Several more shortwaves move through the area as
eastern North America remains under the influence of mid level
trough. This will result in chance for snow showers throughout
the remainder of the period. Temperatures will also trend cooler
but remain above normal by about 5 degrees.
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 12z Tuesday...Ceilings across Vermont and northern New
York this morning vary from mainly MVFR/VFR, to local pockets of
IFR ceilings. Expecting mainly VFR/MVFR ceilings through 06Z
Tuesday, as the region continues to have low level moisture
trapped beneath an upper level ridge. Models have continued the
trend of slowing the arrival of precipitation into the region
from a low pressure area developing off the mid Atlantic coast,
as upper level ridge over the region helping to slow the
northward progression of pecipitation from the low pressure area
developing off the mid Atlantic coast. Expecting precipitation
to start between 00z-06Z Tuesday across south central Vermont,
with precipitation expected to start between 06Z-12Z Tuesday
across northern Vermont and northern New York. A mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain is possible across the region late
Outlook 12z Tuesday through Friday...Expecting a wintry mix of
precipitation to develop Monday evening and continue into
Tuesday with the potential for moderate icing and major impacts
to the aviation community. A mix of snow...sleet...and freezing
rain is expected...with the heaviest precip occurring between
03z-15z Tuesday. Expect mvfr to ifr cigs/vis with periods of
lifr vis in the heavier bursts of snow/sleet. Also...gusty
southeast/east winds are likely at Rutland during this time
period...with areas of wind shear and turbulence areawide
associated with 925mb to 800mb winds of 50 to 60 knots.
Improving conditions with lingering rain/snow showers on Weds
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.