Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261139
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
639 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WHICH WILL
YIELD AN ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER DAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEARING CONTINUING WITH ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF NW PA REMAINING
UNDER THE STRATUS DECK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE. LIGHT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR
AN ABOVE AVERAGE WINTER DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD
IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. MAY START TO GET SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND A
MILKY SUN BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL SKY GRID
CHANGES WITH THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES FOR SATURDAY AND
WILL BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.

WENT ALONG THE LINES OF THE WARMER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW, WARM AIR ADVECTION, AND INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...MID AND UPPER 30S. SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEARING 50. A SURGE OF BETTER MOISTURE
GETS DRAWN UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO. SHOWERS A GOOD BET WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. HAVE RAISED CHANCES
TO CATEGORICAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD AIR DOES
BEGIN TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION IF NOT ALL STILL LOOKING TO BE RAIN. PRECIP WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES.

WEAK RIDGING AND DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WILL HOPEFULLY KEEP PUSHING PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODEL AGREE. IT WILL BE COOLER...BUT CLOSER
TO NORMAL. QUESTIONS ARISE WITH THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. A RE-
ENFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR PUSHES SOUTH WITH A BAND OF HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE EITHER DRY WITH THIS FEATURE
OR SLOWER WITH IT SO HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FOR MONDAY. AGAIN
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS FOR THIS PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND THEN IT
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH BY THURSDAY. FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
IT WILL BE A DRY PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SNOW BELT WHERE THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME
QUESTION HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND. THE LAKE AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL BE NEAR 15C. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS OVER NE OH AND NW PA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWEST ON THE LAKE AND THIS WILL END THE LAKE EFFECT THREAT. WENT
CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE AREA. SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER NW
PA WILL BE GONE BY DAYBREAK. SUNNY AND VFR TODAY WITH WINDS
GETTING A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...20 KNOTS AND THEN
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TONIGHT. A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING
TO INDICATE SOME MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...THIS
DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NON-VFR MAINLY
OVER NE OH/NW PA MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ON LAKE ERIE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

A SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE EAST END THROUGH 1 PM TODAY. WITH WARM ADVECTION THE MODERATE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...WAVES
COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE EAST END AS
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL DEFINITELY BE NEEDED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
MAINLY ON THE EAST END. IT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN QUICKLY SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE LAKE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH. AS THIS HAPPENS THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AS IT MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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