Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210156
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
956 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...AS PER SPC...WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCH. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS CLOUDS AND WX BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS. NO
OTHER CHANGES.


ORIGINAL...A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEVERAL PREFRONTAL BOUNDARIES THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MICHIGAN. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE OUTFLOW FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY GET CLOSER TO NW OHIO. IF THESE
INITIAL STORMS DO NOT GET INTO THE TOLEDO AREA THROUGH 00Z WE WILL
BE WAITING UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR ANY CONVECTION TO
ARRIVE. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNSET AS WE
ADVECT SOME BETTER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AND THE BETTER SHEAR
ARRIVES. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONGER
WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.

HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE
REGION WARMER TONIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WE ARE A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES ON SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEADVILLE TO MARION. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THE REGION WILL HAVE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
IT WILL MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE REGION EASTWARD INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA. THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 70S...MIDDLE TO MAYBE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNEVENTFUL FROM WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PATTERN BEGINS TO BLOCK AND RARE RIDGING RESIDES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES THAT ARE NEAR NORMAL AND A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUN MORNING SHOULD PUSH ESE INTO TOL AREA SOON THEN REACH CLE TO MFD
LINE AROUND 04Z WHILE WEAKENING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP BACK CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT AND THIS PUSH SHOULD THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 06Z INTO SUN MORNING. WILL
CONTINUE TO JUST USE VCTS FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THE CONVECTION MAY BE BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL FOR A WHILE
SUN MORNING INTO MIDDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES BUT A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHRA AND A FEW TSRA TO DEVELOP.
CIGS AND VSBY`S SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MIDDAY SUN THEN WILL DEPEND ON
WHEN ANY OF THE SCT SHRA/TSRA MAY BE AFFECTING A GIVEN AIRPORT.

SW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD DIMINISH A LITTLE LATER
TONIGHT THEN VEER TO W TO NW SUN MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY EVENING LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS STAYING JUST UNDER SCA CRITERIA SO ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHEN WINDS REACH SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLE SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ISLANDS WEST.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LAKE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN BE FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEREFORE CAN BE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM THE SSW TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHOP ON THE LAKE AND BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
LENGTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AIDING IN THE
ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS. WIND/WAVES SETTLE DOWN SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LAKE WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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