Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021631
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1231 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG BURNED OFF. SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
SNEAK INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS.

THE RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE AREA WAS SHIFTING EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TIMING THE ONSET OF THE SHOWERS IS TRICKY AS THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST TONIGHT WHICH WILL
LIKELY REACH NW OHIO BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OUTRUN THE
FRONT BUT THE WEAKENING SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NW
OHIO ...PERHAPS AS FAR AS NE OHIO DURING FRIDAY MORNING. THE ACTUAL
FRONT WILL BE SLOWER AND WE WILL SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DECENT SHEAR SO IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN IF WE CAN GENERATE MUCH INSTABILITY FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT THAT IF WE
GET ENOUGH DCAPE THERE WOULD BE A LIKELIHOOD FOR DOWNBURSTS. WILL
MENTION STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHS FRIDAY ARE TRICKY. THE AIR MASS WILL BE WARM SO THE TEMP AT
ANY SPOT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS/MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR EXTREME NE
OH/NW PA WHERE IT MAY NOT RAIN UNTIL LATER.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS
DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW. I SUSPECT THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE A STEADY RAIN. MUCH COOLER
WITH NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 50S.

THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL HEAD
DOWN INTO THE 30S/LOWER 40S BUT WILL NOT FORECAST LOWS AS COLD AS
THEY COULD BE GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF CLOUDS...A FEW SHOWERS AND A
BREEZE.

THE MODELS QUICKLY BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUNDAY. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH THE FLOW MAY BE SOUTHWEST WHICH
MAY KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE LAKE EFFECT IN WESTERN NEW YORK. A
FEW SUNNY BREAKS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BELT BUT WE WILL
LIKELY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEGA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY WILL REMAIN TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY AS YET
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS DEEP INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TO WAFFLE AROUND CENTRAL ONTARIO CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. 1000 TO 700 MB MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ROTATES SWATHS OF 70
PLUS PERCENT INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGHS.
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. EVENTUALLY...A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON TUESDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SOME COLD
AIR ADVECTION.  HOWEVER...COLD AIR ADVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
TOO STRONG AND COULD POSSIBLY MODIFY TO THE POINT THAT AIR MASS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS LITTLE DIFFERENCE THAN THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
IT. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S FOR HIGHS AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EXPECTING THIS TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. EXPECTING VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LATEST MODELS SLOWED TIMING OF PRECIPITATION INTO
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY CONSIDERABLY SO WILL HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION
UNTIL CLOSE TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE REST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THIS FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTING
WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...10 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ON THE LAKE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT
EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AS LAKE TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN THE AIR
TEMPERATURES. AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST ON FRIDAY...WINDS DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...BIG PUSH OF COLD AIR STARTS TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS REALLY INCREASE. WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME SORT OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS REMAIN UP THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAY NEED TO KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY UP FOR SOME TIME. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RELIEF FROM THE
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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