Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 191422
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
922 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017
A weak and dry cool front will push south across the area this
morning. High pressure will build back over the region Sunday
and Monday then a cold front will cross the region on Tuesday.
Another cold front will sag south near Lake Erie early Thursday
before lifting north as a warm front Friday, bringing a chance
of showers and storms to the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No big changes to the forecast for today with this mid morning
update. Fog/low stratus from Findlay to Marion to Mount Vernon has
slowed its expansion northeast and will be eroding from now
through early afternoon. This will slow their rise in
temperature...but highs in the lower 60s still seems reachable.
Others have some mid/high clouds associated with the dry cool
front that has yet to cross the lake. So winds remain west-
southwest. But would expect as we warm that winds will shift
more northwest in a lake breeze fashion and cap temperatures in
the immediate lakeshore to the upper 40s.
With high pressure building into the area for tonight...winds
will turn out of the north this evening.
Drier air, light winds, and mostly clear skies will allow
temperatures tonight to fall to the lower and middle 30s.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A surface high will be moving off to the northeast of the area
Monday, which will turn the winds back around to the east by
late morning and the southeast by the afternoon. Temperatures
will still be about 15 degrees above normal, though the lake
shore will stay a little cooler.
A cold front will arrive Tuesday bringing rain showers to the
area. The GFS continues to be 6 plus hours faster than both the
ECMWF and NAM with regards to the timing of the front. Have
slowed down the onset of precipitation a bit to take more of a
blend of the NAM and ECMWF seeing as the GFS has routinely been
too fast with frontal boundaries recently. The slower timing
will allow for a little more heating ahead of the front, so
highs should be able to climb into the lower and middle 60s for
The front will be well east of the area by Wednesday afternoon
and the remaining associated cloud cover should largely
dissipate by the late-morning or early-afternoon. This will
allow for plenty of sunshine with breezy southwest winds,
meaning high temperatures will likely rise into the middle and
upper 60s. We could very well see some 70 degree temperatures as
well, but will continue to trend higher in subsequent forecasts
if that looks likely.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today as it looks like the surface
ridge will remain over the region through the end of the workweek.
As a result temps will remain mild with highs Thursday and Friday 25
to 30 degrees above normal. Precip chances will return to the
area during the period as a warm front from a low over the
Plains lifts across the area. Models still having some
differences with the main features but most of that should get
sorted out with later runs. Rain chances will increase Thursday
into Thursday night with perhaps the best chances during the
period coming on Friday. By that time the surface low should be
somewhere over the Central Lakes with a cold front approaching
the local area. Even the slower ECMWF has the front east of the
area by daybreak Saturday. Temperatures will return to near
normal behind the front with perhaps some snow showers downwind
of the lake for the second half of the weekend.
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Quiet weather continues. A weak cold front will move south
across the area today. It will bring some mid and high level
clouds with it but think it is too dry for lower clouds. SW to
WSW flow will become WNW behind the front and eventually NE
tonight. Not expecting much more than a few high clouds tonight.
Some patchy MVFR fog has developed in the south this morning
but should dissipate the next couple of hours.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
Fairly quiet weather is expected on Lake Erie the next few days as
mild temperatures continue. The flow will become onshore today
as a weakening cool front pushes south of the lake. Light flow
is expected tonight with southerly winds redeveloping Monday as
a surface ridge pushes east of the lake. Speeds will increase
some ahead of a cold front which will cross the lake on Tuesday.
Given the stable situation of cold waters and warm air do not
think waves will get more than a foot or two. A period of
westerly flow is expected right behind the front but winds will
return to the southwest or south by early Wednesday and will
then remain that way through the end of the period. Do not
foresee needing any small craft headlines the next few days.