Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 251414
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1014 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS FOR THE
START OF THE WEEK.  SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS NW OHIO THIS MORNING BUT HAVE NOT
RESULTED IN ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS. THERE MAY BE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING BUT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A PASSING SPRINKLE/VERY BRIEF SHOWER.

OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WITH SKIES
GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS WILL LIMIT OUR HEATING
A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RIDING NORTHWARD ON A 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. AS THIS JET SHIFTS
EASTWARD IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NW PA. STILL
NOT SEEING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS ANY OF THIS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BUT IMAGINE SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE HILLS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO COULD OCCUR.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING 80 DEGREES.
HAVE EVEN NUDGED THE LAKESHORE AREAS UP TO NEAR 80 WITH THE
SOUTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING ON
TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S.  ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  WITH THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE HEAD
OF AN 850MB JET PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY AND THIS COULD TRIGGER SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  SPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
WFO CLE AREA HIGHLIGHTED AS MARGINAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. A BRIEF RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY...
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. AMPLE SUN SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
AREA. MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TIMING THE FRONT WITH THE
00Z/25 GFS RUNNING NEARLY 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM.
HAVE SIDED WITH THE BETTER CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND KEPT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAIRLY LOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT...RAMPING UP AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO ADJUST FRONTAL TIMING
AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FRONT
APPEARS TO STALL OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AFTER 12Z. LIFT WILL
INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER HEATING WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE EASTERN SITES...STARTING AT MFD/CLE AT 19Z AND REACHING ERI BY
23Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS...OTHERWISE
EXPECTING VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SOME
BR OR STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP TODAY
TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE ERIE
TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRISK TODAY WITH WINDS WEST OF VERMILION
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE WAVE RESPONSE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO HOLD
OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON WINDS THIS MORNING AND MAY NEED TO ISSUE FOR THE AFTERNOON IF
WINDS CREEP UP HIGH ENOUGH. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC/TK/MM






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.