Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 091131

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

Cold northwesterly winds will continue to flow across Lake Erie
and produce Lake Effect Snow for the snowbelt. As high pressure
begins to ridge into southern Ohio tonight into Saturday it will
nudge the snow showers up the lakeshore into NW PA. The area of
high pressure will be short lived with the next storm system
moving from the southern Plains into the central Great Lakes
Sunday into Sunday night.


Only minor changes have been made since the band of heavier snow
is struggling to settle back to the south and west toward
Cleveland. Still think a band will impact Cuyahoga county and
some point but confidence not high enough to go with a LES
warning. Only other change was to add a bit higher pops of the
Central Highlands area. Snow isnt all that heavy but an inch or so
is possible.

Previous Discussion...
Northwesterly flow at the surface will persist through the day
with surface winds from a more westerly direction. This should end
up producing multiple bands of snow across NE OH/NW PA. A few snow
showers may even reach NW OH from Lake Michigan. The heaviest
bands of snow will likely be across Erie county in NW PA and
potentially from Cuyahoga county into Geauga county. If this does
set up across Cuyahoga county like several of the higher
resolution short range models indicate the potential for upgrading
to a LES warning exists. Will monitor this a bit longer and
upgrade to a warning with a later update.

A heavier band of snow continues to flow into northern Trumbull
county as well. Current thinking is that this could persist well
into the afternoon. So have hoisted a LES advisory for the
northern portion of the county.

Winds will remain up through the day with the strongest occurring
as you move closer to the lakeshore. Will mention some blowing
snow in these areas.

The chances of thunder still exist if a more intense band can
develop but do not feel confident enough to place this mention in
the forecast at this point in time.


The Lake Effect Snow will continue to wobble across the region
tonight with additional heavy accumulations possible. However the
bands of snow should begin to shift slowly up the lakeshore
through the overnight hours. As winds begin to shift more to the
southwest on Saturday the bands of snow should eventually shift
into Western NY.

The ridge of high pressure that will nudge the Lake Effect Snow up
the lakeshore will be short lived as strong warm advection
develops. Expect to see a general light snow develop Saturday
night. There may be a brief lull in the snow early Sunday but the
next surge should begin during the afternoon. We will then monitor
for the possibility of mixed precipitation Sunday night. Southern
areas may warm enough to change over to rain. In any event it
appears all locations will see 1 to 4 inches of snow. Higher
amounts likely occurring closer to the lakeshore. More details on
this over the next few shifts.


The models show the low moving off to the ne by late monday with
drier air spreading into the area which should end the precip for
all but the snowbelt where some light shsn will likely linger mon
night. There are still differences among the models as to the track
of the low and whether enough warmer air can get pulled north for
some of the precip to be rain for the se half of the cwa for a while
on monday. Snow accumulation on monday should be light.

The arctic cold front should cross the cwa tue night producing a
brief shot of snow then the polar vortex sets up near james bay for
at least the next week. This will result in a continuous flow of
arctic air into the area for the next week. This pattern should
result in mainly just lake effect snow showers with well below
normal temps but there is some indication of a synoptic system
affecting the area the weekend of the 17th and 18th.


.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Lake effect snow showers will be affecting eri...cle...yng and at
times cak thru tonight with a tendency to shift focus back more
towards just eri toward the end of the period. Conditions will drop
well down into the IFR range in the heavier snow showers. Sct
flurries will affect the rest of the area with mix of MVFR and low
end VFR cigs.

OUTLOOK...Lake effect shsn mainly for eri sat into sat night then
widespread light to moderate snow sun into mon shifting into mainly
the snowbelt for mon night and tue.


SCA conditions will gradually settle down from west to east today
through saturday as high pressure finally moves into ohio. The
models continue to show a low moving ne near lake erie on monday,
generally favoring a track near detroit which means in increasing se
flow ahead of the low veering to sw then west later mon into mon
night. Marginal SCA conditions look possible for a while late mon
and mon night. A arctic front should cross the lake late tue into
tue night producing a brief backing of the winds ahead of the front
then wnw winds by wed with SCA conditions likely.


OH...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for OHZ011.
     Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for
PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 PM EST Saturday for
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for


NEAR TERM...Mullen
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