Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141404
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1004 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL DRIVE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
REGION TODAY. THIS MAKES THE DEVELOPMENT VERY CONDITIONAL AS WE
AWAIT THE BETTER DYNAMICS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE
INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER WE
DO FEEL THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT WENT THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT THE
SECOND...STRONGER ONE IS STILL ACROSS SE LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS DO
NOT MOVE THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON TEMPS STILL IN THE
80S CAPES WILL APPROACH 1500 J/KG. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS NW OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. SPC HAS PLACED ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS EVENING. LIMITED SHEAR BUT CONVERGENCE NEAR
FRONT SHOULD ACT AS TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.  GFS
HAS THE FRONT EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY...WHILE BOTH NAM
AND ECMWF STILL HAS THE FRONT LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE EAST
ON TUESDAY.

BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.  IN FACT BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO 7C WHICH IS ROUGHLY A
15 DEGREE DIFFERENTIAL FROM THE LAKE. THAT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS A SURFACE TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS
EASTERN LAKE ERIE. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS. HIGH
PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE RIDGE THAT
HAD BEEN DOMINATING THE WEATHER MOVES EAST. DRY ON FRIDAY AND THEN
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF AND UPPER TROF WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME INCREASED THE POPS TO 30% FOR SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE POPS MAY NEEDS TO RAISED FROM 20% TO 30% FRIDAY
NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRENDS. THE ECMWF/GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...
MAINLY THE TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAUSING SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NE OH AND NW PA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO.
IN THE MEANTIME SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER NE OH AND NW PA WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE THIS MORNING...ELSEWHERE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL SLOWLY THICKEN. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME MODERATE COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
THIS MAY PROMPT THE NEED FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAINLY ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING ON THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PROMPT THE NEED FOR SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS...BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT.

ON TUESDAY THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR 6C BY MID DAY AND
WITH THE LAKE AROUND 21C THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE COMBINED WITH
AN UPPER TROF MOVING THROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME SHOWERS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS. DID NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF THEM YET
IN THE FORECAST AND GRIDS...HOWEVER...WILL MENTION THEM IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY AND IT WILL
LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MEANS GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ON THE
LAKE...THUS NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. A LOW
WILL BE AROUND THE LAKE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AT THIS TIME NOT
EXPECTING STRONG WINDS ON THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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