Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261625

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
925 AM MST Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Windy and cooler conditions are in store across
northern Arizona today. Less wind and a warming trend are
expected this weekend as high pressure builds in from the west.
Slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms start Monday in the
White Mountains and expand eastward for Tuesday.


.UPDATE...Wind speeds have already increased in eastern Arizona
across the Wind Advisory area this morning. Eager-Springerville
has reported gusts in excess of 60 mph. These localized strong
winds are expected to subside over the next couple of hours while
gusts near 40 mph become more widespread in this area. Have made
minor tweaks to the short term wind forecast with no other updates
needed. The Wind Advisory and Red Flag Warning remain in effect
today through early this evening.


.PREV DISCUSSION /359 AM MST/... Dry and windy weather will
continue today as the broad trough of low pressure encompassing
much of the western U.S gradually rotates through the Great Basin
today. Winds have remained breezy overnight with some locations
such as Springerville with winds already near advisory levels.
These areas of local strong winds will become more prevalent after
sunrise. Have kept the wind advisory starting at 8 am for the
White Mountains as gusts in the 40 to 50 MPH range become more
widespread later this morning and into the afternoon hours.

The Red Flag warning remains in effect for Today across the Little
Colorado River Valley, central Navajo County, and Apache County
due to strong winds and low RH values. By Saturday, the trough
axis finally moves through Arizona while high pressure builds in
quickly from the west. Pressure gradients weaken substantially
allowing for much lighter winds over the weekend. Temperatures
will also climb back to above average as the ridge begins to move
into the region.

Some moisture is expected to sneak into Arizona from the east by
early next week introducing the chance for afternoon thunderstorms
each day. Confidence remains low concerning how far west the
moisture and associated thunderstorms will spread, this will be
something to watch over the coming days.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...VFR conditions under mostly
clear skies will continue over northern Arizona for the next 24
hours. Southwesterly winds will gust to 30-40 knots into this
afternoon especially SE of a KPAN-KINW-KRQE line, with winds
decreasing after 03Z Saturday. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Windy and cooler conditions will develop today.
Critical fire weather conditions will develop over the Little
Colorado River Valley, central Navajo County, and Apache County this
afternoon.  Winds will subside substantially Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue
Sunday. There is a chance for thunderstorms over Apache County
Monday, with better chances for thunderstorms over all of northern
Arizona Tuesday.


this evening FOR AZZ111-113-114-140.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ014-017.




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