Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 221627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
927 AM MST Fri Sep 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect cooler temperatures and continued breezy
conditons today, as a cold front moves through the area. Cool
conditions will persist over the weekend as strong low pressure
moves into the southern Great Basin. Expect possible freezing
temperatures for much of the high country by Saturday, Sunday and
Monday mornings.


.UPDATE...Low pressure remains entrenched across the Great Basin
today with a cold front gradually moving east through northern
Arizona. The current forecast handles the cool and breezy day well
with only a few isolated light showers or a thunderstorm possible
this afternoon. Moisture and instability are limited so any
precipitation will remain light. Only minor updates were made to
the cloud cover forecast to accommodate for the upslope stratus
development along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.


.PREV DISCUSSION /420 AM MST/...A cold front currently moving
through western Coconino county will drop temperatures from west
to east today. Southwest winds will continue to gust as high as
30-35 mph along and ahead of the front, but most areas should
stay below criteria as cold air filters into the region.

Some low and middle clouds have developed ahead of the front, but
vertical development is limited and only a slight chance of light
showers is expected.

The trough driving this front through Arizona today will continue
to drop south through the Great Basin over the weekend. This will
bring even colder air into the region, with continued southwest
breezes. The airmass will mainly be dry, but a slight chance will
persist along the New Mexico border Saturday as the front slows
down in that area. A few light instability showers will also be
possible through the weekend, mainly near the Utah border.

The cold air will bring some chilly mornings to the region by
Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Many areas above 6500 feet may see
freezing temperatures. Winds may hamper the cooling tonight, but
should decrease enough to allow strong radiational cooling by
Saturday night and Sunday night.

Heights recover heading into next week, we expect moderating
daytime temperatures and cool nights as a result. A secondary low
may drop into the long wave trough position later in the week, so
we have introduced low POPs by Thursday and Friday.


.AVIATION...For the 18z package...Expect mostly VFR conditions for
the next 24 hours. Southwest winds 15-25 kts with gusts from 25-35
kts. Wind speeds will decrease after 03Z. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...For today, a mainly dry, cold front will move
across northern Arizona causing breezy conditions and a slight
chance of thunderstorms. For Saturday, Look for lighter winds and
below normal temperatures with just a slight chance of

Sunday through Tuesday...Expect light winds and well below normal
temperatures all three days. Generally dry, but a bit of additional
moisture will sneak over eastern portions of the area on Tuesday for
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.






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