Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 042154
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
254 PM MST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR
ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS WELL INTO THE 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS, 80S TO NEAR 90
VALLEYS. SOUTH WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT DUE TO AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON THURSDAY. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE. GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. A MINOR INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW
MOVES CLOSER, AND ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THERE. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS COCONINO COUNTY NORTHWEST OF
FLAGSTAFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP
TO 7000 FT OR JUST BELOW AT TIMES WHICH INCLUDES FLAGSTAFF.

BY SUNDAY...MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LOW EAST
OF STATE WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD RISE TO
7500 FT OR HIGHER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN
NATURE, DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING. A WARMING TREND SHOULD ARRIVE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SLOWLY DRYING CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-20 KTS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY. NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO THE AREA.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COOL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO
8 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ004>008-012-015.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...SUK
FIRE WEATHER...SUK

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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