Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
868
FXUS65 KFGZ 221047
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 AM MST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AND ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
LOW WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXTENDING THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST ON
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER TRENDING FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN FACT...HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN 12
AND 18 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR FOR TODAY
AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL...BUT GENERALLY WEAKER...DISTURBANCES
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE MAIN LOW KEEPING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THOUGH DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY REBOUND FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A TRANSITION TO FAIR AND
WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFT 15Z...SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA
TO DEVELOP W OF A KPRC-KFLG-KPGA LINE AND EXPAND TO A K0V7-KFLG-
KPRC LINE THROUGH 06Z SAT. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD CONTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS FROM 17Z-02Z SAT S-SW 15-25 KT GUSTS TO
30KT...FASTEST ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO ARIZONA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE
FROM KAYENTA TO PRESCOTT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. WETTING
PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN COCONINO
COUNTY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOR ALLOW A FEW HOURS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
ON SATURDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-40.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD
AVIATION...DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.