Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 201643
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA THIS MORNING...AND REFORM AGAIN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DELIVER FAIR WEATHER...A FEW CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES FOR
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THIS MORNING IS THE LOW STRATUS
AND FOG WHICH FORMED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NE
ARIZONA. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT REFORM ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THE
STRONG DIURNAL FORCING. ONE FACTOR WHICH MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS AND FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL BE THE EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS ARIZONA.  SOME
MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL TO ADJUST FOR THE CURRENT AND
FORECAST EXTENT OF THE STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /410AM MST/...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES. SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT
NORTHEAST AZ VALLEY AREAS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO ARIZONA.
HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN IMPACT IS LIKELY TO BE
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEVERAL DEGREES OF COOLING BY TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST.

FOR CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL STILL INDICATES THE
POSSIBILITY OF COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL RUNS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH SOME OTHER MODELS. KEPT LOW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...
CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
IN LOW CLOUD AND FOG ARE PRESENT ACROSS LOWER TERRAIN REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER AND CHINLE VALLEYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT WILL LIKELY
RETURN AGAIN OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....BAK/JJ
AVIATION...RICKEY/BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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