Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 290404
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
904 PM MST TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY SPREADS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ALL OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA...WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THRU THE EVENING
AND ADJUST FORECAST AS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /343 PM MST/...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS REGIONS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SOME OF
OUR HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE DRAW INTO NORTHERN
ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLANES
STRENGTHENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL ALONG ARIZONA`S NORTHERN BORDER AND IN THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU WHERE DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. BY THURSDAY, DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FRIDAY ONWARD...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE MAINTAINING A MOISTURE
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A KPAN-KSJN LINE...WITH CONDITIONS PRIMARILY
REMAINING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z WEDNESDAY...MOST NUMEROUS SE OF A KPAN-KRQE
LINE...WITH ISOLATED MVFR/IFR NEAR ANY STRONGER STORMS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE
MOGOLLON RIM ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE UTAH BORDER ON THURSDAY.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS BOTH AFTERNOONS.
MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER MONSOON CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KD/RR
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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