Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 170437
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 PM MST TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGED PRECIPITATION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BOTH OF THESE DAYS.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN SONORA THIS EVENING...ROUGHLY BETWEEN GUAYMAS AND
NOGALES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 HAVE A
WESTWARD MOVEMENT...WHILE SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND SEEM TO BE ENHANCED OVER TERRAIN (OROGRAPHIC LIFTING).
MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED THE TRACK OF
ODILE...DOWNGRADING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
NEAR THE AZ/SONORA BORDER WEST OF NOGALES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
BETWEEN GLOBE AND TUCSON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST AND
HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /350 PM MST...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO POP AND QPF FORECASTS FOR
THESE DAYS. THESE CHANGES ARE TO INCREASE PROBABILITIES AND AMOUNTS
FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS (IE PAYSON, CARRIZO, WHITE RIVER, HONDAH, ALPINE AREAS)
AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN NORTHERN AZ.
CURRENT THINKING FOR THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT A LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD SHIELD FROM ODILE.

FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
THE REMANDS OF ODILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ROCKY PT MEXICO TO
NEAR GLOBE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIP THREAT SHOULD BE
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM...WHICH AGAIN APPEARS TO
BE FROM PAYSON THROUGH THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THIS FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY. PROGS SHOW EASTERLY AND NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS COCONINO
COUNTY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD DECREASE PRECIP COVERAGE IN
THIS AREA.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...PROGS STILL DISAGREE ON A NEW TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST / SRN CAL AND ITS MOVEMENT. THE GFS WANTS TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS NRN AZ WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND SOME SHEAR PRODUCING A MORE SERIOUS TSTORM
THREAT. THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS NEW LOW WELL WEST OF ARIZONA. WE HAVE
LEFT SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...AREAS LIGHT-MOD RAIN/VFR-MVFR CIGS AHEAD OF
WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...EXPANDING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH ISOLD TSRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY
FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES 007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/DL
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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