Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 201151 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN
AFTER 07Z SUNDAY.

LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
OF 1130Z AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF SOUTH TEXAS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT EAST BY MIDDAY AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS RESULTING IN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. SOME OF THE
COMPUTER MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT WE COULD SEE A TEMPORARY
IMPROVEMENT TO LOWER END VFR CEILINGS 20/21Z THROUGH 21/03Z
PERIOD. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
16Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR FROM 16Z THROUGH 07Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER BACK TO IFR BY 08Z SUNDAY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/
THE COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
PRODUCES LEE TROUGHING. SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MONDAY WILL WARM UP
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S IN SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DECREASING
TO NEAR 60 IN THE NORTHEAST.

I HAVE ADDED LOW POPS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE
NAM AND ECMWF BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION. QPF
IS LIKELY TO BE LOW WITH THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND PRECIP SHOULD
BE EAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE 30S...AND LOW LYING COOLER AREAS MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO WARM UP
INTO THE 50S/60S.

FAIR SKIES WILL CONTINUE CHRISTMAS MORNING AND ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL
INTO THE 30S NORTH/LOW 40S SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AGAIN IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS ABOVE 20 MPG. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL RESULT...WITH SOME 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH 60S ALL THE WAY TO THE
RED RIVER.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY...ENTERING NORTHWEST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON AND SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA BY EVENING. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S
NORTH/60S SOUTH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. 84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  55  46  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
WACO, TX              53  41  57  47  67 /   5   5  10   5   5
PARIS, TX             50  39  52  43  59 /   5   5  10  10  10
DENTON, TX            50  40  54  45  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
MCKINNEY, TX          50  40  53  44  62 /   5   5  10  10   5
DALLAS, TX            51  43  55  47  65 /   5   5  10  10   5
TERRELL, TX           51  42  55  46  62 /   5   5  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         53  42  57  47  64 /   5   5  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            53  42  58  46  68 /   5   5  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     52  38  56  43  67 /   5   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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