Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 292334
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
634 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon and this
should continue through much of the night into Tuesday. There is
still a weak surface frontal boundary that is draped across the
region south of the Metroplex airports and in the vicinity of
Waco. It is generally denoted by an increase in low level moisture
south of the boundary and this is where the cumulus field is
located on satellite imagery. A few showers attempted to develop
over the last few hours, but most of the activity has since
diminished. The main concern through the period will be the
potential for MVFR cigs/vis at Waco. Light easterly flow will
persist through the night and should help keep the near surface
layer saturated into Tuesday morning. With the light winds, some
patchy fog may try to develop. We`ll keep a few hours of TEMPO
MVFR cigs/vis at Waco to account for this. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through Tuesday with light east-southeast
winds.

Dunn

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017/
Isolated, pulse showers have been occurring south of a Lometa to
Waco to Palestine line this afternoon. Subsidence from an earlier
cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico is likely suppressing
additional development this afternoon and evening. This isolated
activity will continue through the early evening hours, and then
relatively quiet conditions are expected overnight. However,
patchy fog may develop along and south of a Goldthwaite to
Waxahachie to Emory line as rich low level moisture remains in
place, and even starts to move back north, combined with clearer
skies and light winds. It`s possible isolated areas of near dense
fog may occur where heavier rain has fallen since yesterday
evening.

Better low level moisture will continue to advect north during the
day on Tuesday in response to an upper level trough moving into
the western CONUS. A few isolated showers and possibly a
thunderstorm will be possible as we retain southwest flow aloft
and moisture begins to increase across the region. Due to weak
instability and weak wind shear, any storms that occur are
expected to be pulse-like again and below strong/severe
thresholds. Overall, the majority of the region will be dry
tomorrow. It will be a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in
the 80s. There may some patchy fog again tomorrow night.

Rain chances will increase across our western counties starting
Wednesday with better rain chances spreading across the region
Wednesday night and Thursday. On Wednesday, a negatively tilted
trough will move into West Texas spreading some lift across the
state. Our region will again be humid, unstable and uncapped thus
scattered rain activity is possible and more likely in the
afternoon hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected due a
lack of better forcing and weak wind shear, but isolated strong
storms may be possible with surface based CAPEs of 1000-2000 J/kg
in the afternoon hours. Rain chances will continue to increase
Wednesday night as the upper level trough gets closer, and then
more widespread rain is expected on Thursday as the trough crosses
the Southern Plains. The models do have slightly different speeds
of the trough between Wednesday night and Thursday so some
adjustments to the timing of the best PoPs may be needed over the
next few days. At least a limited severe weather threat may occur
on Thursday, but again, wind shear values will be on the lower end
of the spectrum at 25-30 kts. This usually means that multi-cell
clusters will be more favorable with a threat for severe winds and
hail. With low level winds backed to the southeast, we cannot
completely discount an isolated tornado threat at this time, but
will need to monitor this threat. Also on Thursday, the potential
exists for heavy rain that may result in a flood threat for some
areas.

The upper level trough is actually slow to clear the region and
rain chances will continue on Friday with better chances across
our eastern counties. Another upper level trough enters the
Southern Plains on the heels of the first trough, and rain chances
will increase for next weekend. The models are in decent consensus
now that a front will move through the region with this system
bringing drier conditions for the start of next week. A severe
weather threat cannot be discounted over the weekend.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  89  71  85  71 /  10  20  20  20  50
Waco                67  86  69  84  69 /  20  20  20  30  50
Paris               63  86  65  84  68 /  10  20  20  20  30
Denton              62  88  67  85  69 /  10  20  20  20  50
McKinney            63  87  67  85  69 /  10  20  20  20  40
Dallas              67  89  71  85  71 /  10  20  20  20  50
Terrell             65  85  67  85  69 /  10  20  20  20  40
Corsicana           68  85  71  84  70 /  20  20  20  20  50
Temple              67  85  69  83  69 /  20  20  20  40  60
Mineral Wells       62  87  66  85  68 /  10  10  10  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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