Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 012027
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LIFT AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS KEEPING THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
HAVE MADE IT INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND THIS SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP THE STORM TRACK WELL REMOVED FROM THE
REGION AND NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. AT LEAST
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REALLY
DOES NOT OFFER MUCH IN THE WAY OF A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FRONT THAT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING ABOUT SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 123 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AT THE METROPLEX
TAF SITES.

WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE SOUTHEAST
OF A KGTU TO KPSN LINE AT 18Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AT 15 KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
KACT. THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED VCSH OR VCTS IN THE WACO TAF FOR THE
21Z-00Z PERIOD...BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED. SOME
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WACO AREA DURING THE 12Z
TO 15Z PERIOD OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE TOO.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF
THE TAF SITES.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  94  76  95  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              74  92  73  95  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
PARIS, TX             71  92  71  94  72 /  10  10   5   5   5
DENTON, TX            73  93  74  95  75 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          73  92  73  94  74 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  94  77  95  78 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           73  92  72  94  74 /  10  10   5   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  92  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            72  92  72  93  73 /  10  20  10  10   5
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  93  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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