Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 042345
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...LATE AFTERNOON CU IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONLY A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
WEDNESDAY...VFR CU SHOULD DEVELOP MID MORNING AND WILL PERSIST
THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-12 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...EXPECT VFR CU TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
THRU THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF MVFR STRATUS OUT
OF WACO TAF SITE...BUT WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RE-
EXAMINE THE POTENTIAL WITH THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE FOR THE 06 UTC
TAFS.

NOTE...HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT ALL TAF SITES ON
WEDNESDAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 104 TO 107 DEGREES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INDIVIDUALS THAT WORK OUTSIDE ARE URGED TO STAY
HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN POSSIBLE.

BAIN

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE HAVE REMAINED MAINLY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IF AT ALL.

THE MORE PRESSING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MID AND UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST WITH TIME AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL PARK ITSELF
OVERHEAD TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH HIGH TEMPS CREEPING A DEGREE OR SO
HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 105 BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CISCO TO
WAXAHACHIE TO EMORY BEGINNING 18Z WEDNESDAY. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
BE EXPANDED SOUTH TO INCLUDE MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SPECIFICS BEING BETTER KNOWN BY THE
ISSUANCE OF TOMORROW/S AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 102 TO 105 BECOMING COMMON ALONG WITH MAXIMUM
HEAT INDICES 105-109.

EITHER WAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE
WITH THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RESIDING ALONG WITH IT. SOME RELIEF
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
ANOTHER WEAK FRONT EASES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME WE WILL
INCLUDE SOME 20 POPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH
NOT MUCH ELSE SHOWING UP IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

30

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80 100  81 102  82 /   5   5   0   5   0
WACO, TX              78 100  78 101  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             77 100  78 101  79 /  10  10  10  10   5
DENTON, TX            79 100  79 102  80 /   5   5   5   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          78 100  80 101  80 /   5   5   5  10   5
DALLAS, TX            82 100  82 102  83 /   5   5   5   5   0
TERRELL, TX           78  99  78 101  79 /   5   5   5   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         78 100  78 101  78 /   5   5   0   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            76 100  76 101  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     76 102  77 101  78 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>121-123-129>134.


&&

$$

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