Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 241116 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
516 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail with passing high clouds and south
and south-southeast winds through tonight. Wind speeds will
increase to 11-14 kts this afternoon with higher gusts. Winds will
diminish overall around sunset, but some locations may stay
around 11-12 kts through the evening hours. A front will approach
the DFW airports Saturday morning, and have reflected a wind
shift to the northeast in the extended portion of the KDFW TAF.
Although not mentioned in the TAF, some light fog may be possible
at KACT early Saturday morning.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 315 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/
/Today and Tonight/

An upper level ridge will remain well to our west keeping
northwest flow across the region. As a shortwave disturbance
moves into the Southern Plains late tonight, a front will also
move down the Plains, reaching North Texas just before daybreak
tomorrow.

South winds will prevail today at speeds of 10-15 mph this
afternoon. Some wind gusts up to 20 mph will be possible where
20-25 mph winds above the surface occasionally mix down. A mix of
sunny and partly sunny skies is expected today as high clouds move
across the region. Southwest to west winds in the 925-850 mb
layer will transport warming temperatures across North and Central
Texas, and surface temperatures will respond. Highs today will be
in the 70s and lower 80s with the warmest temperatures west of
the I-35 corridor. The combination of warm temperatures, humidity
values in the low to mid 20s, dry fuel conditions and winds of
10-15 mph will yield elevated fire weather concerns. A Grassfire
Danger Statement has been issued for areas along and west of a
Sherman to Dallas to Temple line.

As the shortwave disturbance and front move into Oklahoma this
evening, a surface low will move into Northwest Texas. The winds
will decrease to around 10 mph or less as the pressure gradient
relaxes with the approaching surface low. However, warm overnight
low temperatures in the mid 40s and lower 50s are expected ahead
of the front. The front and shortwave may generate some isolated
light rain across Oklahoma and Arkansas, but the lower levels will
remain too dry for any rain in North Texas. High clouds will
continue to spill across the region.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017/
/Saturday through the end of next week/

With an upper ridge to the west and a trough to the east,
northwest flow aloft will remain in place through this weekend. A
shortwave will drop southeast from the Arklatex region across
Louisiana on Saturday, sending a weak cold front south through
North and Central Texas. Cold air advection will be sufficient for
a slight cool-down this weekend, but the persistent upper level
ridge over the Southwest will continue to keep temperatures 5-10
degrees above normal.

The upper level pattern will become more progressive as we head
into next week. There will be an eastward propagation of the
southwest CONUS ridge beginning Monday as an upper level trough
(currently lurking over the North Pacific between 150 and 160 west
longitude) makes its way east across California. South winds will
return on Monday as the upper low crosses the Great Basin and a
lee-side surface trough develops. Temperatures will warm to
around 15 degrees above normal on Monday and Tuesday due to the
return of southerly surface winds, and the fact that the upper
ridge axis will be passing overhead.

A cold front will surge southeast across the region Tuesday night
as the upper low swings east across Oklahoma. The lack of any
appreciable moisture ahead of the front will preclude convective
development for all but the far eastern counties, where slight
chance POPs will be kept Tuesday night.

The upper low will progress rapidly northeast on Wednesday as a
larger scale shortwave trough drops southeast out of Western
Canada. This system is progged to deepen over the Central Plains
on Thursday, forcing another cold front southward through North
and Central Texas. There may be enough moisture for low-end POPs,
but the main effect will be a nice cool-down, with temperatures at
or slightly below normal late next week through the following
weekend.

30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  50  71  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                76  46  73  46  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               70  47  70  43  67 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              77  48  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  47  71  44  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              78  51  71  46  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             73  47  72  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           73  49  71  46  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              76  48  74  47  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       80  46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/30


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