Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302335 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
635 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

00 UTC TAF Cycle

Concerns---Gradual wind shift to the south, but VFR through the
entire TAF cycle.

Outside of some decaying afternoon CU and high level clouds
around FL250, generally quiet weather conditions are expected at
all terminals. Winds will become easterly, with perhaps a brief
period of variable winds. Thereafter, the wind shift to the east
around 0300 UTC still appears probable. Thereafter, winds will
continue to turn towards the south with speeds of around 12-15
knots. A few gusts to near 20 knots will be possible. A few
pockets of afternoon cumulus will be possible as well, but VFR
will prevail.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017/
The upper level cyclone that gave the area the round of severe
weather this past Tuesday/Tuesday Night has continued to lift
northeast across the Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys this
afternoon. Dry cyclonic northwest flow aloft will combine with a
dry surface airmass in place for overnight lows between 45 and 55
degrees under mostly clear skies. The surface ridge will slide
east of the area overnight, as lee-side pressure falls occur in
advance of our next deep upper low dropping southeast over the
Four Corners of UT/CO/AZ/and NM. In advance of the upper low, a
shortwave ridge and increasing warm advection through 850mb will
combine with a continued dry airmass for highs in the 80s

The Gulf of Mexico will continue to be open for business Friday
night into Saturday morning, as theta-e advection out ahead of the
upper low and West TX surface dryline allow 60+ surface dew
points to surge rapidly up northward across the central and
eastern parts of the area. A lead shortwave will induce
potentially scattered elevated convection over just east of the
dryline across west-central Texas Saturday morning. As we move
into Saturday afternoon, the upper low will rotate slowly east-
northeast over eastern NM and the TX/OK Panhandles with associated
height falls sliding eastward and moving the surface dryline toward
the western edge of of North Texas. Increasing clouds should hold
high temperatures to around 80 degrees or slightly lower,
depending on the coverage over morning convection over the far
western counties.

As both the upper low and dryline shift slowly east, a thin
corridor of richer theta-e air will focus between the U.S. 281
corridor and I-35/35E Saturday afternoon, as yet another shortwave
lifts northeast out of the upper low and across western parts of
our area. Scattered showers and storms will develop near the 281
corridor early-mid afternoon, with the general thin axis moving
east toward the I-35 corridor by late afternoon and into the early
evening hours. Instability looks to be tall and skinny, with an
abundance of bulk shear. Storms may become strong to severe with
damaging winds and frequent lightning being the initial the main
threat, though the hail threat will be increasingly prevalent
moving into the evening hours Saturday with mid level lapse rates
steepening with the approach of the upper low. Low level
hodographs are not super strong or backed, but if skies can break
and warm enough, sub-cloud based CAPE could become enough for an
isolated tornado threat Saturday afternoon. The initial afternoon
shortwave will track east-northeast with a cluster of strong to
possibly severe storms tracking eastward through the evening hours
Saturday and continuing during the overnight hours. However, we
could see a brief reprieve as we await the main upper trough to
arrive Sunday.

The main upper trough will swing east toward the area on Sunday,
while a weak cold front begins migrating through the area through
the day. I will keep the highest chances for showers and storms,
some strong to marginally severe, along with a locally heavy rain
threat ahead of the cold front across the southeast half of the
CWA, with lesser chances northwest behind the cold front due to
drier air filtering in. Rain chances will continue to diminish
from southwest to northeast Sunday night into Monday morning, as
the shortwave trough moves across and exits the area to the east.
A dry period with a low amplitude cyclonic flow aloft regime will
return moving into the middle of next week with seasonal
temperatures for early April. Did hold a a very low chance for
showers and storms across the northeast CWA associated with
another shortwave trough and cold front, though this system
appears to be starved of moisture and confidence isn`t high.

Otherwise, the remainder of next week in the weekend after next
appears quiet weatherwise, while dry and seasonable conditions
prevail. The longwave pattern across the country will shifts to a
Western U.S. Ridge and Eastern U.S trough regime that will put our
area underneath dry, cyclonic northwest flow, with periodic weak
cold fronts. Rain chances look NIL for this time period. This may
be a period we may have to watch out for periods of elevated fire



Dallas-Ft. Worth    54  86  62  78  61 /   0   0   0  40  60
Waco                54  86  62  79  62 /   0   0   0  40  60
Paris               49  82  56  80  61 /   0   0   0  10  70
Denton              50  85  58  77  59 /   0   0   0  40  60
McKinney            49  83  58  78  61 /   0   0   0  20  70
Dallas              55  86  62  79  62 /   0   0   0  30  60
Terrell             51  84  59  81  62 /   0   0   0  10  70
Corsicana           53  85  61  79  63 /   0   0   0  10  70
Temple              53  86  63  80  62 /   0   0   0  40  60
Mineral Wells       51  89  58  79  55 /   0   0   0  40  40




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