Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 222023
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO USHER DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
INTO THE REGION. JUST A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TODAY WITHIN THE AXIS OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY SUNSET.

THE DRY AIR...LIGHT WINDS...AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES MEANS THAT
THERE WILL BE LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 80S...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BENEFIT FROM GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.

TR.92

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED OVER THE ROCKIES AND A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVER TEXAS AND ONLY MODEST MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S. DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOONS WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

BY SATURDAY EVENING EXTENDED MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW A WEAK LOW LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF LA.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY USHER IN SOME MOISTURE OVER EASTERN TEXAS...SO
HAVE INCREASED DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS PRIMARILY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE GFS BRINGS THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FARTHER WESTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT EAST OF THE CWA. DUE TO
THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING...HAVE KEPT THE
FCST DRY FOR NOW.

STALLEY

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1243 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014/
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE WILL BE WIND SPEED/DIRECTION FOR
THE METROPLEX TAFS AND CIGS ACROSS WACO TAF SITE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAFS...PERSISTENT EAST NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE METROPLEX EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR
MODEL GUIDANCE IS HANDLING NEAR TERM VERY WELL...BUT STILL
PROBABLY TURNS WINDS TOO QUICKLY TO THE NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CARRIED ENE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DECREASE AND WILL BECOME MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS COLORADO. VFR
CIGS AND VISBY SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF CYCLE WITH
JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE REGION.

FOR THE WACO TAF...THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND DOES NOT WARRANT INCLUSION INTO THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. RELATIVELY DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL RESULT IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
AND IMPROVING CIGS. SOME HIGH BASED CU WILL STILL LINGER THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
IN.

15/30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  85  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              60  87  58  88  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             58  82  55  83  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            57  84  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          56  83  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            63  85  61  87  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           58  84  57  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         60  85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            62  87  59  87  60 /   5   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     60  85  58  86  58 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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