Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 052339 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.

DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
AN EXTRAORDINARILY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS PUSHED THE MERCURY
ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
WINNIPEG MANITOBA JOINED THE 90-DEGREE CLUB TODAY...A DISTINCTION
DFW AIRPORT HAS YET TO ATTAIN THIS YEAR. BEHIND A COLD FRONT...
FORT MCMURRAY ALBERTA IS EXPERIENCING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S...
AFTER REACHING 91 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. BUT THE COOLER AIR IS STILL
VERY DRY...AND THE DEVASTATING WILDFIRE RAGES ON...HAVING ALREADY
CONSUMED MORE THAN 200 THOUSAND ACRES.

MUCH MORE PLACID CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE...DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
MORE SEASONAL. THE GENTLE WARMING TREND CONTINUES...AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUR OMEGA BLOCK WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SATURDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO KEEP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

NORTH WINDS CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
ALTHOUGH SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
FRIDAY...THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN. IT WILL
LIKELY TAKE UNTIL SUNDAY FOR DEW POINTS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
60S. DESPITE THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY...IT STILL APPEARS A
CAP WILL LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH A DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA...
DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT MAY INVADE AREAS WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SUNDAY EVENING.

BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY WHEN THE DRYLINE IS
SYNOPTICALLY FORCED DEEP INTO THE CWA. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
SAY THAT WESTERN ZONES WILL MISS OUT ON THE EVENT...IT APPEARS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE
WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A
SURFACE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD ASSURE THE CAP IS
ERODED/OVERCOME...WHILE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR WOULD MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT DEVELOP. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WE ARE GETTING TO THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN A DEPARTING SYSTEM
GENERALLY DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AS SUB-SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW
TRAVERSE THE LONE STAR STATE. THE NEXT WIDESPREAD EVENT LOOKS TO
BE NEXT THURSDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.

25

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    58  84  62  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
WACO                55  84  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
PARIS               54  80  57  82  59 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON              53  83  58  84  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
MCKINNEY            52  83  57  83  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
DALLAS              59  84  63  86  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
TERRELL             55  83  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
CORSICANA           56  83  61  83  63 /   0   0   0   0   5
TEMPLE              55  84  60  84  64 /   0   0   0   0   5
MINERAL WELLS       54  85  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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