067
FXUS64 KFWD 100605
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

With the cold front fully though North and Central Texas, cooler
and drier air will continue to filter in overnight. The front will
continue to move through South Texas as the base of the more
progressive northern longwave trough to our northeast swings
through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. With the cut-
off low still stagnant to our west, this will cause ridging to
build across the Southern Plains to end out the week. Overall,
subsident air will keep things on the quieter end of the ledge,
aside from a couple of shortwave impulses providing enough
isentropic ascent for isolated rain chances each afternoon.

The first impulse will round the apex of the ridge this afternoon.
Isolated showers are expected to form to our west across the
Edwards Plateau and move eastward over our Central Texas counties.
Guidance generally has the activity weakening as it moves across
our area, with the more "robust" reflectivity in our far
southwestern counties. Additionally, forecast soundings show a
deep dry layer under where the rain would fall from (~500-600mb).
This would promote evaporation of much of the rain before it gets
to the ground. Have persisted in only having a mention of 20% PoPs
for our southeast counties, with 10% or less PoPs elsewhere in
Central Texas for today as most will likely stay dry. Afternoon
highs will peak in the 70s to low 80s, which are near to below
normal for this time of year.

On Saturday, the aforementioned cut-off low to our west will de-
amplify into a more open wave trough and begin to move eastward.
While the trough will not impact our short-term sensible weather,
a stronger impulse out ahead of the low will move across the
region and break down the ridge. We`ll have better rain and storm
chances across our western counties over the afternoon hours as
stronger ascent will overspread the region. No severe weather is
expected with this activity, but there looks to be enough elevated
instability for a few lightning strikes.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 207 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024/
Update:
Not much has changed in regards to the extended portion of the
forecast. Pleasant weather is expected to start the weekend with
afternoon highs primarily in the mid to upper 70s. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will begin across our west and southwest
Saturday evening/night increasing in coverage and spreading east
during the day Sunday and into Sunday night. The severe potential
is low on Sunday, but a few storms could produce some small hail.
Thunderstorm chances will continue into Monday primarily
along/east of I-35, exiting to the east by Monday night. Heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible in the
Sunday-Monday timeframe, especially across our already water-
logged areas in Central Texas and the Brazos Valley where there is
a 30-40% chance that rainfall totals exceed 2 inches during this
timeframe. We will likely see a break in the rain chances Tuesday-
Tuesday night before storm chances, potentially severe, return in
the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. See the discussion below for
more details.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Onward/

North winds will drop to 5 to 10 MPH and veer to the northeast
Friday night as a surface ridge moves southeast through the Red
River Valley. The cooler and drier continental airmass (behind the
cold front currently moving slowly through the region) will
create low temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red
River to the lower 60s across Central Texas. The surface ridge
axis will be practically on top of North and Central Texas on
Saturday while weak ridging is simultaneously in place aloft. The
result will be a nice Saturday with light winds and highs
generally in the 75 to 80 degree range. The only minor damper will
be thickening mid and high clouds and a slight chance of showers
across the far west associated with an upper low situated over
the southern Rockies.

Clouds and rain chances will continue to increase Saturday night
as the upstream low advances east. Showers and thunderstorms will
initially be confined to the west and southwest counties, but will
spread east/northeast across the rest of the region on Sunday as
the upper low draws near. With the surface front becoming
stationary along the Gulf Coast, convection will be elevated in
nature, which should mitigate the overall severe weather threat.
However, elevated instability may be sufficient at times to
support quarter sized hail in a few storms Sunday and Sunday
night. Locally heavy rain may also produce flooding in some areas.

Rain chances will continue mainly along and east of I-35 on Monday
as the upper low moves east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will end from west to east Monday night as the low
exits to the east and subsidence develops in its wake. Dry
conditions are then expected Tuesday through Tuesday night,
followed by additional chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday as
the next upper trough approaches. The surface front will have
lifted north by then, immersing all of the forecast area back
within the warm sector. The dryline may also come into play,
making Wednesday of next week look like our next (after today)
significant opportunity severe weather.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Mid-to-low level VFR clouds are spreading across the TAF sites
tonight in the wake of our earlier cold front. The clouds will
remain mostly VFR, though have kept a possibility for MVFR cigs
for the next two hours at ACT due to lower clouds continuing to
develop and spread out across southern Central Texas. Northerly
winds will prevail through the rest of the period, with winds
increasing slightly to around 10-15 kts over this afternoon. There
is a chance for light precipitation at ACT late this afternoon,
but with dry air below the cloud deck, much of the rain will
likely evaporate before it hits the ground. Have declined to
include any mention of rain in the TAF at this time, but will keep
watch for any greater possibilities.

After the TAF period, winds will shift more easterly on Saturday.
This will be included in future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  77  62  75  65 /   5   5  30  50  60
Waco                62  77  63  71  65 /  10  10  30  70  50
Paris               57  80  60  76  61 /   5   0  10  30  60
Denton              59  77  60  74  63 /  10   5  30  50  60
McKinney            58  78  60  74  63 /   5   5  20  40  60
Dallas              63  78  63  75  64 /   5   5  20  50  60
Terrell             59  77  61  74  63 /   5   5  20  40  60
Corsicana           62  78  64  76  65 /   5   5  20  50  50
Temple              62  78  62  72  65 /  10  20  30  70  40
Mineral Wells       59  74  59  73  63 /  10  20  40  70  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$