Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 272329
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
629 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Issued 250 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016)
Convection is gradually increasing out of the ssw over cntrl AL/MS
this early Wed afternoon, as a broad upper weakness over the Mid
South/Lower MS Valley regions drifts ewd. Much of the local area
though thus far remains predom free of rain, with an upper ridge
axis remaining in place over the srn Atlantic states. Latest WV
imagery still shows some mid level dry air over the cntrl/ern zones
associated with the ridge pattern aloft. All of this will be slowly
changing as the late afternoon/evening hrs progress, with rainfall
xpcted to spread n/e into much of the area, as the moisture profile
gradually thickens. Convection though may tempo taper off a bit into
the early morning period, as latent heating wanes. Latest model
suites are then suggesting a weak upper trough pattern settling into
the Midwest/mid TN areas by the onset of daytime hrs Thu, with
showers/tstms increasing out of the w in response to the upper wave
and the ridge axis to the e weakening.

With the upper trough in place, a series of upper disturbances look
to traverse enewd along/ahead of the trough axis over the local area
well into the day Thu. This should translate into multiple periods
of showers/tstms affecting the region into Thu evening. With the air
column fairly saturated, locally heavy rainfall and perhaps brief
gusty outflow winds are possible with some of this activity into Thu
night. In addition to the much needed rainfall, afternoon temps will
likely struggle to get out of the mid 80s tomorrow given some thick
cloud cover and low level flow veering to the ese.

Convection then looks to become more sct in coverage for most of the
area by the end of the work week, as the weak upper trough pattern
flattens a bit over the Midwest/Oh Valley states. Even with the
upper forcing/lift weakening over most of the local area, sufficient
moisture will still be in place helping to maintain chc POPs into
the day Sun. Overall temp trends through the weekend look to hover
near seasonal values, with some areas perhaps holding in the upper
80s for afternoon highs given what cloud cover/rainfall may be in
place. Overnight lows look to remain fairly consistent in the lower
70s for most locations. The latter half of the global models are
then hinting at another upper ridge pattern building ewd over the
srn Plains/wrn Gulf states by the start of the new work week. This
may result in a slight warming trend once again developing over the
region, with rain chances lowering a bit, especially in the evening.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: A few shra and tsra were moving across portions of the
TN valley attm. However an upper high centered off the sern coast
should provide enough subsidence to keep pcpn mainly sct over the
taf sites early this evening. Thus based on radar trends will keep
vcsh in for both taf sites until arnd 02z. After 02z expect these
shra/tsra to begin to dissipate due to loss of daytime heating.
However more shra/tsra are expected to develop on Thursday mrng as an
upper wave moves across the area. Pcpn should be more widespread in
coverage as the upper wave moves across the region. Otherwise mainly
vfr conditions are expected thru the fcst period except for mvfr in
tsra.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

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