Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 052116
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
316 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AT 21Z...THE BACK EDGE OF THE MIXED PRECIP OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
WAS MOVING SLIGHTLY TO JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WERE RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE...TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. THE LAST FEW
IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATED THAT THE BACK EDGE OF THE
LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WAS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
ALABAMA. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE CLEARING OUT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME...AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE GONE JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE INVOLVING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LESSEN WITH TIME TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY. HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE STILL VERY SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS ROADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. ANY MOISTURE ON
AREA ROADS WILL QUICKLY FREEZE TONIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING FINALLY BY AROUND 16Z ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THE MODELS FINALLY MOVE THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY...WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
WITHIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF NORMALS BY SATURDAY AND CLOSER TO NORMALS
BY SUNDAY. BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S AND EJECT ANOTHER SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE THROUGH TEXAS...WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BETWEEN 12Z SUNDAY-00Z
MONDAY.

BASED UPON MODEL TRENDING...WILL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ECMWF MODEL MOVES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND MOST OF THE PRECIP AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE TUESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE POP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED BY THE
MODELS TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z THURSDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD ON THURSDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD A MIX BETWEEN THE COOLER ECMWF
AND WARMER GFS TEMP MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1136 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/
FOR 18Z TAFS...THE PRECIP HAS GENERALLY EXITED THE TERMINALS AS OF
18Z BUT WITH A FEW SHOWERS LEFT...WILL CONTINUE A TEMPO GROUP AT KHSV
THROUGH 20Z FOR SOME LIGHT PELLETS/SNOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A LULL OR TWO POSSIBLE. TRICKY PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE WHEN THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OR AT LEAST GO TO SCT
INSTEAD OF BKN. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT WHAT WILL
HAPPEN SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW WILL CONTINUE
THE BKN CIGS THROUGH 7/9Z WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER.

LN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    20  40  25  54 /  10   0   0   0
SHOALS        17  39  23  53 /  10   0   0   0
VINEMONT      20  38  25  54 /  10   0   0  10
FAYETTEVILLE  16  37  23  52 /  10   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   21  42  26  55 /  10   0   0  10
FORT PAYNE    21  42  26  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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