Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 201700 AAC
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1200 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1007 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS MORNING CURRENTLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S (NE AL) TO THE LOWER 80S (NW AL), WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES IN MANY LOCATIONS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL).

TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR NEARLY
THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AS UPPER/SFC RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MID/LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

THE RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY ARE A BIT TRICKY. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD BE SEEN EARLIER THIS MORNING SAGGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CWFA, BUT OTHERWISE, THERE ISN`T A TRUE FOCUS MECHANISM
UNTIL LATER TODAY (ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN NERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA). THE NEXT (AND FINAL) SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
UPPER MS VALLEY REGION, AND IS SLATED TO SLIDE SEWRD IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE AREA LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD KEEP MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE JUNCTIONS OF GA/TN/NC, BUT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY COULD CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. A BLEND OF MORNING BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW ~3000 J/KG SBCAPE ONCE A ~100 J/KG CAP IS BROKEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND SHORT-TERM/HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WILL THEREFORE INCREASE POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS EAST OF I-65.

OTHERWISE, MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WX GRIDS, AS WELL AS SKY
GRIDS TO FOLLOW IN LINE WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY AS ALL OTHER WX ELEMENTS WERE IN GREAT SHAPE. TEMPS
LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 90S EAST/MIDDLE 90S WEST.

WILL SEND UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR CONDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THRU THE TAF
PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF KHSV, BUT
WILL NOT INCLUDE VCTS AT KHSV WITH THIS ISSUANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT BOTH KHSV/KMSL,
WITH MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING. OTHERWISE,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDS ARE
ANTICIPATED AFTER 12Z, LINGERING THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

12

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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