Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 222326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
626 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For 00Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level ridge over much of
the central CONUS building into the region, while an upper trough
pushes off the Atlantic coast. Temperatures have warmed into the mid
to upper 60s across much of the area under clear skies. With the
high pressure in place, expect clear skies to continue overnight.
Winds will become light, and decent radiational cooling is expected,
with temps dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Although there
may be a few spots that see patchy frost, do not expect temps to
cool enough for much development. Therefore, will not include in the
forecast at this point.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The dry conditions will continue through the short term, as the
center of the surface high pressure slowly shifts east. Winds will
briefly shift to the south on Sunday, and then remain westerly
through Monday. This will combine with the mid level height rises to
bring slightly above normal high temperatures. Afternoon highs are
expected to warm into the mid to upper 70s on Sunday and Monday,
with near normal overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Dry conditions and above normal temps will continue into
the extended forecast as the ridge of high pressure lingers across
the region. Daytime highs will reach the mid/upper 70s while the
overnight lows will dip into the upper 40s/lower 50s.

On Wednesday, the ridge will shift east as a trough and associated
front approaches from the northern Plains providing our next chance
of rain. With the latest model guidance, introduced rain into the
forecast Wednesday night/Thursday morning, and tapered it off
Thursday evening. The latest run of the ECMWF pulled back a little
bit on precip and strength of the trough across the area but believe
it is more on track with this system than the GFS at this time. The
fronts northerly wind shift arrives Thursday evening but will provide
little change to the temperatures, will more so see a change in cloud
cover as dry air filters into the region. So look for above normal
temps to continue as we head into the weekend with highs in the
low/mid 70s and overnight lows in the low/mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Surface high pressure will gradually build over the area over the
next 24 hours. Resulting in a lighter wind speeds, a continuation of
VFR conditions, and a switch in wind direction to the SW by 16Z





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