Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 052040
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
340 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS INDICATED AN OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER CENTRAL CA
AND THE CAROLINAS. AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE LIES IN BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES, EXTENDING ALL THE WAY NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES, WITH WELL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES/WILDFIRES BEING
REPORTED THERE. CLOSER TO HOME, THE UPPER LOW WOBBLING TO OUR EAST IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, GUSTING ON THE ORDER
OF 25-30KTS IN MOST PLACES, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40KTS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS IN NE AL AND SRN MIDDLE TN. THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE EASTERN ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO OUR EAST (WITH EVEN SOME SLEET AND SNOW BEING
REPORTED WELL TO OUR EAST), WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST
OUTSIDE THE CWA BORDER. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX, WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 5KTS OR LESS. THIS, COMBINED WITH CLOUDS
DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT, WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S (WITH A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SRN MIDDLE
TN).

THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOMORROW AND
SATURDAY, WITH A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IN STORE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S SATURDAY MORNING, AND INTO THE
LOWER 60S SUNDAY MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S EACH DAY.

THE PATTERN CHANGES AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE CURRENT
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WOBBLES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, EVENTUALLY TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE TN VALLEY LATE MONDAY, AND OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MUCH OF MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR A SHOWER/STORM OVER NW AL BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN FACT, THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MEANDERS SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIKELY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON TUESDAY. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY
AGREE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES, THE
ECMWF ADVERTISES A BIT STRONGER STORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA WITH
THE MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THESE
DIFFERENCES, HOWEVER, NO AREAS ARE FORMALLY OUTLOOKED FROM SPC FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. EITHER WAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW WOBBLING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROF, SENDING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
OUR AREA. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT, BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY GIVEN THE STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW, ENHANCED LIFT, AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS PERIOD. A
CIRCULATION AROUND AN UNSEASONABLY COLD UPPER LOW EAST OF THE
REGION WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS (FROM THE NW)
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE AL AND ADJACENT TN...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT
POSSIBLE. VFR ALTITUDE (~5500 FT AGL) CLOUDS PINWHEELING AROUND
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE
DURING THE NIGHT...BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 5KT. NNW WINDS IN THE
10-15KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.

RSB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    48  75  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
SHOALS        48  75  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
VINEMONT      45  72  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
FAYETTEVILLE  47  72  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
ALBERTVILLE   47  72  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
FORT PAYNE    42  71  47  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ006-008>010.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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