Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 100453

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1053 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

For 06Z TAFS.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 902 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The current near term forecast is in good condition this evening,
with no changes required. Latest guidance is in agreement that low-
level flow will gradually veer to north-northeast and diminish
through the remainder of the night, as a surface high currently
centered across the mid-MS valley builds esewd into TN/KY. This,
along with clear skies, should allow for optimal radiational
cooling...especially during the hours immediately before sunrise...
and a hard freeze appears likely for the entire forecast area.
Temperatures are on track reach forecasted lows ranging from the
lower 20s in urban areas and near large bodies of water, to the m/u
teens elsewhere.

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

Saturday will be somewhat warmer, though not much, as the surface
high shifts to the east, and winds veer more easterly as well. The
axis of a low level ridge will shift eastward, with southerly flow
returning and 850 temps warming a few degrees. Thus, expect highs to
quickly warm above freezing by 9 am and then into lower 40s during
the afternoon. Southerly surface flow will return overnight Saturday
and will combine with increased high cloud cover to help our
temperatures near seasonal, with lows around 30.

By Sunday, a broad mid level trough will begin to shift east of the
rockies. Surface cyclogenesis will begin over the Central Plains
and winds will shift to the south across the TN Valley as the high
shifts off the east coast. Moisture will be advected northward, and
although increasing clouds are expected, highs will moderate into
the lower 50s. There may be some isolated showers across the extreme
NW, however with little lift in the area, have removed the slight
chance precip from the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 247 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

The extended forecast stays in a pretty much zonal flow pattern,
however there will be a few periods of much needed rain throughout
the week. As the sfc low lifts from the Plains up into the Great
Lakes on Sunday night, the last portion of the sfc high affecting
the Southeast is pushed eastward into the Atlantic. In return,
southerly winds will pick up, cloud cover will increase, and showers
are possible ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will
move into the area Monday morning with additional rainfall, but high
temps will warm up towards 60, yep, almost 60 degrees Monday
afternoon. Overnight lows on Monday will cool down into the mid 40s.
Rain and warm temps will continue into Tuesday.

Models differ on sfc high pressure building in on Wednesday but went
with a decreasing trend in POPs throughout the day and evening hours.
The ECMWF builds in the sfc high, drying things out while the GFS
shows a more gradual drying trend. Regardless, temps will be cooler
on Wednesday with lows dropping down into the upper 20s. Cloud cover
will decrease on Thursday as a large sfc high builds into the region
and cooling temps even further. Thursday`s high will only be in the
upper 30s/lower 40s with lows in the upper 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1053 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

No changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning. VFR/SKC
conditions will prevail overnight, with only a minor increase in
mid and high- level cloudiness expected beginning late tomorrow
morning. Lgt nne sfc winds will become lgt/vrbl by 10/16Z, but should
assume a more pronounced sely component around or just after sunset
as return flow pattern becomes established.





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