Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 150845
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS...EMBEDDED WITHIN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION...ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EARLY MON MORNING. SOME LOW STRATUS OUT OF E CNTRL AL IS
ALSO MOVING NWD INTO PORTIONS OF NE AL...ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD LIFT WITHIN A FEW HRS AFTER THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE CNTRL/ERN GULF REGION IS XPCTED TO
LIFT NWD LATER TODAY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THE
DIFF BETWEEN THE LATEST MODELS LAY WITH THE QPF/XPCTED RAINFALL
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT TO THE N. THE ECMWF/NAM ARE BY
FAR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WHILE
THE GFS MOS NUMBERS ARE CLOSER TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WILL GIVE
SOME CREDENCE TO THE BETTER ENERGY BEING GENERATED BY THE ECMWF/NAM
LATER TODAY...AND BUMP UP POPS SOME AS THIS WAVE IS LIFTED INTO THE
GENERAL AREA. CONVECTION MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING HRS AS A
REINFORCING FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...AIDED BY HIGH
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID PLAINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGIONS. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS NEXT FRONT COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING SEWD WITHIN A NWLY FLOW
REGIME AND INTERACTING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW H7 MAY RESULT
IN SOME TRAILING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TUE BEFORE ENDING BY THE
EVENING PERIOD.

THE FORECAST IS THEN FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK
AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NE BECOMES REINFORCED...AND WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. OVERALL TEMPS LOOK
TO RUN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL MEANS INTO THE WEEKEND PERIOD...BEFORE
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND PERHAPS DEVELOPS...AS THE SFC HIGH TO
THE NE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THEREBY CREATING A LARGE SWATH
OF SLY/SELY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THE LATTER HALF OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OUT OF THE
NW DROPPING INTO THE REGION SUN NIGHT/INTO MON...WITH AT LEAST ISO
SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1157 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/
FOR 06Z TAFS...LOW STRATUS DECK CAN BE SEEN IN MULTI-SPECTRAL SAT
IMAGERY BUILDING INTO NE AL FROM THE EAST...AND CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT THE MVFR STRATUS WILL BUILD TO THE KHSV TAF SITE BY
12Z. LACK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND NECESSARY MOISTURE MAY PREVENT
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS KMSL. MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
DISPERSE AT KHSV BY 17-18Z. SHRA POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF AN UPR WAVE
MAINLY AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...BUT CONFIDENCE HIGHER AT KHSV DUE TO
BETTER AVAILABILITY OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

KDW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    84  64  86  61 /  30  20  20  10
SHOALS        84  63  86  60 /  30  20  20  10
VINEMONT      82  64  85  60 /  40  30  20  10
FAYETTEVILLE  82  61  84  58 /  30  20  20  10
ALBERTVILLE   82  63  86  58 /  40  30  20  10
FORT PAYNE    82  63  85  59 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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