Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 302341
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
641 PM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Area of convection early this afternoon will continue brush past the
forecast area.  This compact complex of storms in NE KS will move SE
into the KC metro area. But this area of storms has thrown out an
outflow boundary currently located across KTOP/KMHK into South
Central Neb.

This outflow boundary across Nrn KS will be the focus for late
afternoon convective chances, possibly extending north into S.
Central Neb. Convergence along this boundary associated with a
weakly capped environment and an unstable airmass will lead to a few
storms developing just to the north-northeast of the forecast area.
Bulk shear around 35 kts and SBCAPE of 2500 j/kg and fairly
favorable directional shear suggests some of this convection may be
severe as it drops to the E-SE for the evening hours possibly
clipping portions of Central KS. So will keep a severe mention in
for portions of Central KS along I-70, and to the SE towards a KSLN
to KEMP line.

As the evening progresses, warm advection will increase from the OK
panhandle into NE KS with low level moisture transport associated
with this advection possibly feeding into this convection and
keeping it going as it moves E-SE. This scenario seems a little more
uncertain, as afternoon heating is lost before low level jet (LLJ)/
moisture transport from the SE increases.  The plausible solution
from the current model solutions is for the nose of the LLJ to push
into NE KS and SE Neb, with nocturnal convection developing around
midnight for areas to the NE of the forecast area.  Strength of this
advection may even lead to a few storms developing for areas just to
the NE of KICT. So will keep the highest pops to the NE of KICT,
with the pops tapering off back to the SW in South Central KS.

Sun-Sun night: Could still see some convection across SE KS on Sun
morning, as remnants of some sort of convective complex expected to
develop across NE KS is expected to drop S-SE into SE KS and SW MO.
So will leave some morning pops for ern sections.

The warm advection really gets going on Sun, with the upper ridge in
the Rockies building east into the plains for the beginning of the
work week.  This will lead to the stifling heat returning to the
plains beginning Sun. Expect max temps to climb back above normal
for Sunday, but with lots of surface moisture to burn off, think
upper 90s look like where they will top out.

Any convective chance for Sun afternoon/night will shift back well
to the NW of the forecast area along a surface trough expected to
set up,  also well to the North-Northeast of the area.

Mon-Tue: Expect the hot, stifling temps to be the worst for Mon
and Tue as max temps are expected to climb to around 100 in
Central and South Central KS. The combination of the heat and
surface dewpoints still expected to be in the lower 70s for areas
east of the KS Turnpike may lead to potential heat headlines
(advisories)for both Mon/Tue. The GFS and some of the consensus
models bring a chance for some diurnally driven convection into
Central KS from the high plains for both Mon and tue afternoons,
while the Nam/wrf keeps it further west. Will keep some low pops
in for now, but think the elevated mixed layer (cap) will keep any
convective chances isolated at best.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

A little more uncertainty on how Wed/Thu will play out, as a nrn
stream shortwave trys to push a frontal boundary south across the
forecast area for the middle of the week.  Medium range models also
suggest that this boundary will wash out over the area as well.
Think the increased cloud cover will temper the max temps just a
tad, albeit still in the upper 90s.  But have low confidence in
whether the front will actually make it this far south.  Kept some
low pops in for consensus sake.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The main aviation concern will be thunderstorm potential late
tonight into early sunday morning. Strengthening moisture
transport and isentropic lift on the nose of a 40-45 knot
nocturnal southerly low-level jet, may allow for scattered
elevated thunderstorm development in the vicinity of central
Kansas toward 06Z. These storms may form into a mesoscale
convective complex during the early morning hours across
northeastern Kansas. For now, have included a VCTS mention at the
SLN and CNU terminals where confidence in storm potential is
relatively higher compared to sites further to the southwest.

Otherwise, light southeasterly winds tonight are expected to
become more southerly and gusty on Sunday as a lee trough
develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  96  76  99 /  30  10  10  10
Hutchinson      71  96  74 100 /  30  10  10  10
Newton          71  95  75  99 /  40  20  10  10
ElDorado        71  94  74  97 /  40  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   73  96  75  99 /  30  10  10  10
Russell         70  98  73 100 /  20  10  10  10
Great Bend      70  98  74 101 /  20  10  10  10
Salina          71  95  75  99 /  50  20  10  10
McPherson       71  95  74  99 /  40  20  10  10
Coffeyville     72  92  74  96 /  30  30  10  10
Chanute         71  91  74  96 /  40  30  10  10
Iola            70  91  73  95 /  50  40  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    72  91  74  96 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...JMC


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