Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261933

National Weather Service Jackson KY
333 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017

The short term portion of the forecast will feature above normal
temperatures and a period of showers and storms on Thursday. A
fast moving cold front is forecast to move across the Ohio and
Tennessee valley regions during the day on Thursday. The
precipitation should begin moving into our southwestern and
western counties early Thursday morning, and should be exiting the
area early Thursday evening. The latest model data is suggesting
that instability should be elevated across the region, which would
help mitigate any threat of severe weather. However, wind decent
wind shear may exist tomorrow while the front is passing through,
so an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts cannot be
ruled out at this time. With precipitation and extensive expected
to spread across the area tomorrow, temperatures will not be able
to warm nearly as much as they have the past couple of days, but
we should still highs max out in the low to mid 70s, which is
still slightly above normal for this time of year. Low
temperatures the next two nights should be in the 50s and 60s
tonight, and in the 50s tomorrow night.

Southerly winds will begin to pick up and become gusty overnight
and tomorrow, as the front approaches and the regional pressure
gradient strengthens. Isolated gusts of 15 to 20 mph cannot be
ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT WED APR 26 2017

Southwest flow will be in place aloft across eastern Kentucky
Friday through the weekend with ridging off the southeast coast
while a deep trough gets carved out over the central CONUS. At the
surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary located initially
along the Ohio River will sag south into the area Friday night.
After a dry and warm day on Friday, shower/thunderstorm chances
increase overnight Friday night, especially over the Bluegrass and
Gateway regions which will lie closest to the boundary. Models
indicate decreasing instability and shear parameters during the
night so severe weather is not a major concern.

Forecast models lift the warm front to our north Saturday into
Sunday placing our area firmly in the warm sector and likely
capped from much if any convective development, although cannot
rule out a shower or storm completely. Temperatures will warm well
into the 80s both days, along with dewpoints in the 60s, making
it feel very summer-like. Showers/storm chances then increase
quickly Sunday night into Monday morning as the potent storm
system wraps up and tracks into the Great Lakes, forcing a cold
front across the local area. Models show quite the wind field
accompanying the frontal passage so despite unfavorable timing and
insignificant instability, will have to monitor this system
closely for a strong wind threat as the front passes through.

The front quickly clears the area on Monday leaving behind a
cooler, less humid airmass. After a brief respite Monday night and
Tuesday, both the GFS and ECMWF indicate another shot at
showers developing by the middle of next week as an open wave
drops into the central CONUS, renewing southwest flow aloft over
our area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

Mainly VFR conditions and south southeastern winds at around 10
mph will be seen this afternoon through early this evening. These
winds should shift to a more purely southerly component later this
evening, as a cold front approaches from the west and the pressure
gradient tightens. The winds should continue to increase in
strength overnight, with gusts to around 15KTs possible at times.
BKN to OVC clouds, with bases between 1 and 2K, are expected to
begin overspreading the area around 11Z on Thursday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to move across the
area from early Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon. Most
of the rain should be out of the area by the end of the TAF
period. A few storms Thursday afternoon may produce damaging wind
gusts. MVFR conditions will be possible at the TAF sites with any
thunderstorm or intense shower on Thursday.




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