Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 060305
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LINGERING FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON WSR-88D RADAR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLURRIES GOING. GIVEN LIGHT
NATURE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
TEMPS IN SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE FORECAST THUS FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINOR UPDATE
NEEDED FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.