Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 052028
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHORT TERM...
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA IS BEING DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING IN
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN THE 3000-3500
RANGE...AND ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND INDIVIDUAL CELLS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
MAXIMIZE DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE WANING
THIS EVENING AS EFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING WANES. STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE QUITE POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON AS STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATE CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LIFTS OUT AND WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS SHOULD RISE ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
WARMING. ATMOSPHERE SHOULD THUS BE MORE CONVECTIVELY STABLE AND
POPS SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER ON TUE...WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES
ACROSS AREA.

LONG TERM...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHERN GULF
REGION THROUGH THE MID AND LATE WEEK. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THROUGH REGION THROUGH
02Z WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO THE TERMINALS.
DUE TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY...CONVECTIVE WIND GUST OF 35 KT WILL
BE LIKELY IN MANY OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHER GUST
POSSIBLE NEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH 12Z.

&&
MARINE... IN THE NEAR TERM...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY SAG OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE BERMUDA RIDGE
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD MAINTAIN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GENERALLY 10 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. EXPECT ISOLATED HIGHER CONDITIONS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
             RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  91  73  91 /  30  20  10  10
BTR  74  92  74  92 /  20  10  10  10
ASD  73  91  74  92 /  30  30  10  10
MSY  76  91  77  91 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  76  87  77  88 /  30  30  10  10
PQL  72  89  74  91 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.