Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 240258
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

ONLY A FEW SMALL SHOWERS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WHILE REMAINING SHOWERS OVER LAND HAD DISSIPATED.
THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME OF THE NEAR SHORE BAYS...SOUNDS AND TIDAL LAKES OVERNIGHT
WITH ONSHORE MOVEMENT. SENT UPDATES EARLIER FOR THESE TRENDS.
22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION AREA TO INCLUDE LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MOSTLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS EVENING AND ACTUALLY WAS ABLE TO
VIEW THE BURST AS IT HAD RETURNED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE LAUNCH
SITE...BURSTING 17 MILES DOWNRANGE AT 5.6 MB AROUND 21.5 MILES UP
NEAR PICAYUNE MS 1 MILE EAST OF I-49 NEAR HIGHWAY 43. A RATHER
TYPICAL PROFILE OF ADIABATIC WARMING FROM SURFACE TO LCL AT 915
MB...THEN PSEUDO-ADIABATIC TO TROPOPAUSE NEAR 200 MB WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF -71.6C. MOISTURE PROFILE IS MARGINALLY SATURATED
WITH 5C OR LESS DEPRESSION FROM SURFACE TO ABOUT 550 MB...A BIT
DRIER TO 400 MB THEN 5C OR LESS AT CIRRUS LEVEL AND ABOVE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.68 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX WAS -3. WINDS
WERE SE 10-20KT SURFACE TO 6300 FEET...VEERING THROUGH SW 10-55 KT
ABOVE. PEAK WIND 260/54KT AT 26KFT. 24/RR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...

NOT SURPRISINGLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
COVERAGE A BIT OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. OVERALL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AGAIN
WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAN TODAY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS WELL. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STORMS TOMORROW
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME ISOLATED HAIL.

LONG TERM...

THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WEST ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND
OVER THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE
MAIN TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SOME STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AS A ANOTHER DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DECREASED THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL TERMINALS. WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI
COAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE HAS SPREAD WELL INLAND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND COULD AFFECT
KHDC...KHUM...KMSY AND KBTR THROUGH SUNSET. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY
DICTATED BY RADAR. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. COULD BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AS EARLY AS ABOUT 10Z SUNDAY...BUT SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AS
CUMULUS FIELD REDEVELOPS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE
00Z PACKAGE WILL PROBABLY NEED A MENTION OF TSRA AT SOME OR MOST
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

MARINE...

SURFACE RIDGE IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST
THRU MIDWEEK. SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL KEEP THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT FAIRLY
TIGHT. THE RESULT OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  69  84  70 /  30  20  50  60
BTR  85  72  85  70 /  40  30  60  70
ASD  86  72  85  72 /  30  20  50  60
MSY  85  75  86  72 /  30  20  50  60
GPT  85  75  83  72 /  20  20  40  60
PQL  85  72  84  72 /  20  20  30  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.