Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 202117
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
417 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE LOCAL WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF
COAST. THE SHORT VERSION IS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS WITHIN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE LONG
VERSION WONT BE THAT TERRIBLY LONG. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH TROUGHS NEAR THE
EASTERN AND WESTERN COASTLINES AND RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO. THE
TROUGH TO THE EAST WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES
OF A LOW CENTER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE CWA AND THUS KEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM. FCST TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO EACH OTHER ANYWAYS.

A MORE NORTHERLY STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT THE
CURRENT ONE TO THE EAST AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.
STILL NO RAIN WITH LACK OF MOISTURE.

FOR THE TROPICS...THE FOCUS REMAINS ON AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GENERALLY SPEAKING...NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON THE SYSTEM/S
TRACK INCREASES QUITE A BIT BEYOND 5 DAYS. IT COULD GET PICKED UP BY
THE LATE WEEK TROUGH AND HEAD OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. IF THAT DOESNT
HAPPEN...IT COULD STALL SOMEWHERE AROUND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO OR NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND BE STUCK IN A LOW STEERING
CURRENT REGIME.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT TERMINAL SITES WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW
AT 10KTS OR LESS AND MAINLY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WINDS MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING WITH ONLY MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT EXPECTED.

MEFFER
&&

.MARINE...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
WILL SLOW AS IT DEEPENS AND CLOSES A LOW OFF. THIS WILL CAUSE A
REINFORCEMENT OF SURFACE HIGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THUS...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODELS ALSO FORECAST THAT AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL TRACK TOWARD THE EAST
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS  LOW PRESSURE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

MEFFER
&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  53  82  53  78 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  55  83  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  53  82  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  60  82  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  58  81  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  54  81  52  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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