Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLIX 040847
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM... BERMUDA RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP THE INCREASING MOISTURE TREND GOING.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS...UP TO 1.6 YESTERDAY
EVENING AND LIKELY APPROACHING 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH
INTENSE HEATING AS THE AREA GETS THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALL IT WILL TAKE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10...SO HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS
ACCORDINGLY. COULD SEE COVERAGE AS HIGH AS 50 PERCENT ALONG THE LA
COAST...THEN TAPERING DOWN TO 20 PERCENT ALONG THE NORTHSHORE OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NORTH OF BATON ROUGE. MEANWHILE...WILL BE
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY WITH HIGHS ECLIPSING NORMALS BY AT LEAST A FEW
DEGREES. HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE NORTH OF 100 BUT LIMITED TO AROUND
105.

.LONG TERM... RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 40 PERCENT ON WED AND THU
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THUS REDUCE SUBSIDENCE TO RESULT
IN INCREASED CONVECTION COVERAGE. COULD ALSO SEE HIGHS DROP A COUPLE
DEGREES WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING 500MB HEIGHTS. IT LIKELY WONT BE
ENOUGH TO FEEL THE DIFFERENCE THOUGH B/C DEWPOINTS WILL BE COMING UP
AT THE SAME TIME WHICH WILL BRING HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 IN THE AFTN
HOURS.

GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS
SLIGHTLY TRICKIER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS NORTHERN
TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE STRONGER AND FURTHER EAST IT SPREADS...THE LESS RAIN THE
AREA WILL SEE. IF ITS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...MORE RAIN. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE AT ODDS. SHOWS A WEAKER PRESSURE FIELD BUT LESS RAIN. OPPOSITE
FOR THE ECMWF...THOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE THE MORE REALISTIC WITH QPF
OUTPUT OF THE TWO AT THIS TIME. SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. GUSTY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH CONVECTION.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

VRF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER CHANCES APPEAR TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. 18

&&

.MARINE...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WESTERLY FLOW HAS REPLACED THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER EAST GULF WHILE A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 18

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT... DSS CODE....BLUE. DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE. ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM RED               RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  97  74  95  74 /  10  10  30  20
BTR  96  75  95  75 /  20  10  30  20
ASD  95  75  92  76 /  20  10  40  20
MSY  94  78  92  78 /  30  10  40  20
GPT  94  77  91  77 /  10  10  30  20
PQL  94  75  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.