Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 281958
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
258 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Afternoon conditions were partly to mostly cloudy across Mid TN.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 60s under clouds, and lower
70s with more sunshine over the southwest.
Surface high pressure will be located over the area tonight
through Wednesday, along with a building upper level ridge. Skies
will be partly to mostly cloudy through tonight, with some patches
of late night fog. Wednesday will bring a little more sunshine
than today, and warmer temperatures. Highs are expected to be
mainly in the 75-80 range. Models show a very weak wave and axis
of moisture crossing the area, and instability will become
moderate in the afternoon over our western counties. So, we have
added a slight chance for isolate thunderstorms west. There is not
much forcing evident, but if a storm or 2 can get going, they
could flare up pretty quickly with some gusty winds and hail.
The bigger concern for thunderstorms will come Thursday and
Thursday night as the next big system moves eastward from the
plains. Once again, severe thunderstorms will be possible. This
situation could be similar to the previous event in terms of
severe coverage. Unfortunately, wind fields look stronger. It
appears late Thursday afternoon and evening will be the peak
times, but those details will become more clear with time. Locally
heavy downpours may occur as well. Average rainfall is expected
to range from one half to 1.5 inches.
Scattered showers and a few storms will likely linger into Friday
with the passage of the upper trough. Good news- the weekend
looks great. High pressure will move in with clear to partly
cloudy skies and pleasant, seasonable temperatures.
Unsettled conditions will return by Monday with the next system
rolling out of the plains with showers and thunderstorms.
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Scattered to broken clouds around 2500 to 3500 ft will persist
across the forecast area today, but have highest confidence in
VFR conditions at KBNA. Expect MVFR ceilings to remain at KCKV
through the period, with BR development expected after 04Z on
Wednesday. While ceilings are expected to begin improving at KCSV
after 00Z Wednesday, BR development should keep MVFR conditions in
the forecast through late morning Wednesday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 52 78 59 78 58 / 0 10 10 50 90
Clarksville 50 75 58 75 56 / 0 10 20 60 80
Crossville 49 74 55 73 56 / 0 10 10 30 70
Columbia 52 79 59 75 57 / 0 20 10 60 90
Lawrenceburg 51 80 59 76 58 / 0 10 10 50 90
Waverly 52 78 59 75 56 / 0 20 20 60 80