Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211103
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
503 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper level low to move across the deep south today. An
associated sfc low is currently located over eastern AR. This
feature will not encounter any appreciable pva and will therefore
be weakening as it moves east. Thus...a likelihood of rain shower
activity is in the fcst, but due to weakening, rainfall amounts
will be on the low side. In fact, look for the heavier rainfall to
shift southward where the upper low resides. At any rate, shower
chances will persist into tonight but again, qpf will remain
light.

On Wednesday, a few showers will linger early across the Plateau but
clouds should remain area wide for the most part. On Thu, light and
low shower chances to return, but pre frontal dynamics look really
sketchy.

For the near term temps, a very mild pattern is in store. Despite
the cloudiness, we will still see high temps reach into the lower
70s on Wed and Thu. Overnight lows will be in the 50s.

In the ext fcst, a cold front will bring a chance of showers and
tstms on Friday. Upper dynamics will catch up to the front as it
moves east and thus, forcing may be stronger as the front moves
eastward with time. Cannot rule out strong thunderstorms Fri
afternoon. Otw, colder air will follow the front with high temps
holding in the 40s and lower 50s on Saturday. More seasonal temps
will then follow, for a few days, anyway.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Upper low set of move across the deep south today/tonight. Deep
moisture advection already underway across the mid-state. Showers
are expected break out later this morning and continue off and on
through tonight. Cigs/Vsbys expected to degrade this afternoon...
dropping to IFR levels tonight. Improvement then not expected
until well after 12z/Wed.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07



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