Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 282027
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
327 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Cold front is clearly depicted on the latest sfc analysis. The
boundary stretches from just east of ckv southwest through the
waverly area. Scattered light shower activity is oriented along and
just behind the boundary. The upper trough axis is providing the
post frontal lift with some pva moving through the area. The
westward extent of the moisture does cut off just north of ckv.
Thus, will continue with the higher pops east theme for the fcst.

Latest HRRR in line with the southward moving band of showers. By
06z the activity will push east of the area. Will only include a
slight chance of showers aft midnight, some 30 pop prior.

Moving forward, the upper low will move very slowly southward
through tomorrow afternoon. On Friday it will start to lift slowly
northward. So, given the close proximity of the upper low and a
continuation of weak impulses on the back side, low shower chances
will persist for a good chunk of our area through Friday.

Examining the 850 mb moisture levels and the higher convective
daytime lapse rates, pops will be into the chance category across
the north and east for both Thursday and Friday afternoons. Still
looking at some isol t on Thursday afternoon as the closer proximity
of the upper low exists and showalter values drop.

For the near term temps, a cool period is in store. The clouds and
light shower activity will keep highs mostly in the 65 to 70 degree
range, and lows in the 50s. I am thinking about undercutting
guidance by several degrees tomorrow, particularly across
northern areas. The close proximity of the upper low may keep us
cooler.

In the ext fcst, upper low will lift out on Saturday and will be
replaced by upper ridging for Tues and Wed. This will equate to a
dry period with a warming trend. High temps will start out in the
low to mid 70s on Saturday, but will reach the mid 80s by Wednesday.
Lows in the 50s will warm into the lower 60s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/CKV/CSV...Cold front is bearing down on Middle Tennessee, with
FROPA taking place during the afternoon and evening. Only
scattered showers are expected with the front, and will handle
with VCSH remarks for now. Conditions should remain VFR until
late tonight and Thursday morning when MVFR cigs develop. Look
for gusty winds this afternoon as winds shift to the NW, then
diminishing during the evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      52  67  53  71  55 /  20  40  10  30  20
Clarksville    51  67  51  69  55 /  10  40  10  30  20
Crossville     51  61  48  66  51 /  30  40  20  30  20
Columbia       51  69  52  71  54 /  10  20  10  20  10
Lawrenceburg   51  69  52  71  54 /  20  20  10  20  10
Waverly        50  67  51  68  55 /  10  20  10  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........08


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