Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 271744
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SCATTERED TS THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARRANTED SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPOS
AT EACH MID-STATE TERMINAL. SOME REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR
SHORT PERIODS WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS.

BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS GO CALM AND
THOSE WHO SEE RAIN TODAY HAVE VISIBILITIES FALL OFF. IFR TO LIFR
AND LOWER CATEGORIES WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS IN
AND AROUND PASSING TS.

UNGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

UPDATE...FOR MORNING DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION...

WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND ACTIVITY
UPSTREAM FROM THE MID-STATE...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL BUMP IN DAYTIME
POPS LOOKS WARRANTED. AN EXPANDING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE ARK-MS STATE LINE LINE...CURRENTLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MS AND SOON...WEST TN...WILL CLOSE IN ON
OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF MIDDLE TN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TS TO THE WHOLE AREA. THE QUESTION IS...HOW
STRONG WILL THEY BECOME. DEW POINTS ARE FIRMLY IN THE UPPER 60S
AND THIS WILL NOT CHANGE...BUT THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER COULD
HAMPER MUCH OF THE DESTABILIZATION WE COULD REALIZE. STILL...
1500-2000 J/KG IS A LIKELY NUMBER FOR US. COUPLED WITH THE DRY AIR
THAT WAS BEING SHOWN ON THE 12Z OHX SOUNDING...THE WIND THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.

I THINK THE BIGGER THING WE WILL NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS. ALONG WITH THE DRY AIR
ALOFT...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS ALSO SHOWING ONLY 13 KTS OF
FORWARD MOTION. WHILE OUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN MOST OF OUR SURROUNDING WFOS...RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN
HOUR WITH SLOW MOTION COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON THAT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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