Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 011314
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE STATE...WITH AN AXIS
BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. NORTH OF THE AXIS WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WHILE SOUTH OF
THERE SOUTHEAST WINDS TURN TO ONSHORE IN AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
THE 12Z TBW RAOB INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.62...CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR TODAY. THERE ARE CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS OFFSHORE BUT A BIT
LESS THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO REFLECT THIS.
ANTICIPATE THE SHOWERS PROPAGATING INLAND AND FILLING IN AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE WILL BE SCATTERED...SHIFTING
INLAND EARLY ACROSS THE NORTH DUR TO SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST WEST
WINDS. THE SOUTH CAN EXPECT CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO
THE PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECASTS UPDATED BY 10 AM.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 02/12Z. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WESTERLY FOR
THE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL TEND TO PUSH CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE COASTAL WATERS...BETWEEN TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WITH SPLIT FLOW. WEST WINDS NORTH OF THE
AXIS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT SHIFTING TO WESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF THE AXIS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  95  76  94  76 /  40  20  50  50
GIF  95  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50
SRQ  93  76  93  77 /  20  20  30  30
BKV  94  71  92  73 /  20  10  40  30
SPG  93  81  92  80 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA


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