Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 201151
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
651 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours with light east winds becoming
onshore at coastal TAF sites during the afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 353 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018/

SHORT TERM...
Warming trend will continue this weekend across west-central
and SW Florida. After a cool start to the day across the
area this morning, temps by the afternoon will warm to just
below climatological norms. Surface high pressure north of
the region will shift into the western Atlantic and as it
does, surface winds become more easterly. Meanwhile, a
shortwave trough will move across the northern Gulf
enhancing southwesterly flow above the surface. This will
allow for moisture to increase quickly in the mid/upper
levels over the area today and because of this expecting
quite a few clouds in the mid/upper levels so mostly cloudy
conditions expected by the afternoon. Continued cloud cover
overnight Saturday into Sunday will keep lows about 10
degrees warmer than where they were to begin the day
Saturday. Temperatures continue to moderate on Sunday with
highs in the lower 70s across the Nature Coast with upper
70s in SW Florida.

LONG TERM...
The memory of this week`s cold snap will be fading away
given the  temperatures expected by the time the weekend
ends, and this warming trend will only continue into the
first day of the upcoming work week. High pressure of the
Atlantic coast will provide the region with a steady east to
southeast flow pattern in the lower levels. Strong indications
that a significant storms system will be wrapping up over
the central part of the country by Monday, but large scape
forcing and available moisture suggest any precipitation
associated with this system and trailing cold front will
remain well off to our northwest through the day. Once again
concern in the forecast will be the potential for some sea-fog
development near the coast. Our SSTs are pretty cold now after
last week, and we will be seeing a decent influx of low
level moisture (higher dewpoints) by this time...especially
given the deep moisture advecting northward ahead of the
central CONUS storm system. Still a few days to watch this
situation develop, but could become a concern by later
Monday/Monday night for mariners and travel along coastal
roadways.

Cold front associated with the storm system mentioned above
will slide eastward Monday night into Tuesday as the surface
low moves over the Great Lakes and into southern Canada. We
could certainly see a few showers as the front approaches
and passes...but honestly...the best forcing for ascent
stays well to our north...and the front is becoming
increasingly stretched...with slow progression. Therefore,
the threat of widespread heavy rainfall or strong storms
appears unlikely.

The airmass moving in behind this front is absolutely nothing
like the airmass behind last week`s front. At this time we
are not looking for temperatures to get anywhere near freezing
for even our far northern zones.

The front/boundary looks to stall just to our south and
remain in place for the middle of the week. If this were to
verify, then the best chance of residual showers would also
stay just off to our south...toward far south Florida/Florida
straits.

There are some indications of another significant pattern
amplification into the eastern states during the late
portion of the week or next weekend that could bring a more
significant potential for rainfall...but the details on
timing and amplitude are still unknown...so not going to
move the forecast in a more pessimistic direction just yet.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period for all
terminals. Winds will be out of the N/NE through the
morning with winds shifting onshore tomorrow afternoon at
PIE, TPA, and SRQ. Thickening BKN/OVC cirrus clouds around
20k feet will fill in across the area by early morning ahead
of an approaching upper level trough. Some lower stratus
will also be possible as low level moisture advects north
but are cigs expected to remain VFR.

MARINE...
High pressure to our north continues a prevailing E/NE wind
through the weekend with no headlines expected. A front will
approach the region on Tuesday. Ahead of the front, winds
will veer to the southeast and moisture will increase. With
cold water, sea fog may be possible... Behind the front,
northeast winds will increase to cautionary/advisory levels
thanks to a tightening pressure gradient.

FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure north of Florida moves east through the early
portion  of next week while ridging back across the area.
This will allow temperatures to warm and moisture to
increase. RH values will remain above critical levels
through the weekend limiting fire weather concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  55  75  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  57  78  60 /   0  10   0   0
GIF  70  54  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  55  74  59 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  69  49  75  54 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  66  56  74  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Jillson



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