Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 291935
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
335 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016
.SHORT TERM (Tonight-Monday)...
An upper trough will remain in place across the state through the
period. At the surface, weak high pressure will build over the
northern Gulf of Mexico and ridge across the area. Winds will be
light overnight and then quickly turn to the W/NW later Monday
morning with the sea breeze. Once the convection from this
afternoon dissipates later this evening, skies will clear out for
the overnight hours. Scattered thunderstorms will then develop
again for Monday afternoon, with the highest chances inland and
across the southern half of the area. Lows tonight will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night-Sunday)...
Broad mid and upper level troughing across the region gives way
to a weak ridge by Thu. This ridge slides out over the Atlantic
through the end of the period as a robust mid-upper level
trough/low moves into the western Gulf from the southern Plains.
Meanwhile at the surface tropical depression Bonnie tracks
northeast along the eastern seaboard as high pressure builds in
west to east across Fl with a relaxed gradient. This high begins
to slip east during the weekend as a cold front accompanying the
mid-upper tough moves into the southeast U.S. and along central
and western Gulf coastal waters.
A moist air mass with model PWAT values in the 1.4 to 1.7 inch
range...daytime heating...and a relaxed pressure pattern will result
in scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms across the
area mainly each afternoon and early evening...with highest rain
chances inland along the sea breeze boundary. Then for the weekend
moisture increases into the 1.8 to near 2 inch range as the upper
trough moving into the western Gulf...with south to southwest flow
aloft ahead of it...taps some deeper moisture from the Caribbean.
This will support numerous showers and scattered storms during the
afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures run near to just above
seasonal normals. Up through the end of this period the GFS and
ECMWF continue similar with only minor location and strength
MVFR to IFR conditions may be temporarily possible in scattered
thunderstorms, mainly near KLAL as the sea breeze is pushing the
storms inland. Otherwise VFR conditions prevailing at the
terminals through the period.
Weak high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico and ridge
across the waters through Tuesday. The ridge will then build
across the state from the Atlantic through the rest of the week
with afternoon sea breezes developing each day. Winds will be
light through the period with scattered showers and thunderstorms
also possible each afternoon and evening.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 74 90 75 90 / 10 20 10 30
FMY 72 91 72 91 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 71 92 72 93 / 30 40 20 40
SRQ 72 88 72 87 / 10 30 10 30
BKV 68 91 69 91 / 10 20 10 30
SPG 75 88 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude