Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 281350
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL RATHER DRY...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 800 MB...ON THE MORNING TBW
SOUNDING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ONLY AROUND 1.15 INCHES.
HOWEVER...IT ALSO INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED TO
A MORE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH DIRECTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...MORNING MFL SOUNDING HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
2.15 INCHES...NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THIS INCREASING
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE
COAST SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND
MOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY
ADJUSTED POPS IN THE GRIDS UP 10 PERCENT FOR LATER TODAY OVER THE
CENTRAL ZONES AND ABOUT 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR EARLY TONIGHT OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY
TO RAISE POPS FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE SPREAD
NORTHWARD. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC RIDGES WEST OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA PRODUCING EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP ALONG THE COASTLINE EACH DAY TURNING THE
WINDS TO AN ONSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS
IN THE VICINITY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  92  78 /  30  40  40  20
FMY  93  78  95  77 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  30  40  50  20
SRQ  92  77  93  77 /  40  40  30  20
BKV  95  71  94  73 /  20  30  50  20
SPG  94  81  93  80 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





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