Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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259
FXUS62 KTBW 220007
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.UPDATE...
The dry airmass was even more dominant than expected today,
and most of the area stayed rain free, with the exception of
a few small areas along the sea breeze over the extreme
northern and southern portions of the forecast area. Those
stray showers are now almost entirely gone, and rain free
conditions are now expected to hold overnight.

The forecast looks on track for a strong moisture return on
Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Only minor changes were made
to the forecast for the evening update, mostly to back off
rain chances for the next couple of hours. No other forecast
changes are planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to hold overnight with rain free
conditions. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible Friday
morning, then scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop across the area during the afternoon and evening
hours, briefly reducing flight categories as storms pass
near individual terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure centered north of Florida will continue to
ridge into the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend, with light
winds and seas continuing outside of daily thunderstorms.
As Hurricane Maria lifts north of the Bahamas this weekend,
it is forecast to stay well away from Florida but will
cause the pressure gradient to tighten up across the coastal
waters, bringing winds up to around 15 knots with seas of
as much as 3 feet. High pressure will build back in through
the first half of next week, with benign marine conditions
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  90  75  90 /  10  50  30  60
FMY  74  91  75  90 /  20  60  30  50
GIF  73  90  73  90 /  10  50  30  60
SRQ  74  90  75  90 /  10  50  30  60
BKV  71  90  72  90 /  10  50  30  60
SPG  76  89  76  89 /  10  50  30  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/Fleming
UPPER AIR...63/Jillson
DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard



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