Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 140755
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD ELONGATED LOW OVER MOST OF ONTARIO TROUGHED DOWN
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A RIDGE STRETCHED FROM
THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO FL AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE CONTAINED AN EMBEDDED TROUGH ON THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. SURFACE - A LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC TRAILED A FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT THEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT/BOUNDARY REACHED FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE GULF...WITH AN AXIS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE GREATS LAKES WITH
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...
FLATTENING AND SHIFTING THE RIDGE ALOFT FL SOUTH OF THE STATE
BY TUE MORNING. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES TO
CENTRAL THEN SOUTH FL BY DAYBREAK TUE.

WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS ON THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE AND DRIFT ONSHORE THE NATURE COAST DURING THE MORNING...
WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY FIRST AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH. EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LATE MORNING THEN INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
THEN MOVE INLAND AS FLOW OVER THE REST OF THE AREA BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH...AND IS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED INLAND AND AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
MOST STORMS WILL WIND DOWN AS THEY EXIT EAST BY EVENING ALTHOUGH
A FEW RESIDUAL STORMS WILL LINGER ON THE GULF. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN CLOSE TO CLIMO.

.MID TERM (TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT STALLS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL KEEP A W/SW FLOW IN PLACE
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EACH MORNING AND PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 90 FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
ALOFT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE STATE FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FL
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE W/SW THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH...THEN BECOME MORE S/SE AS THE RIDGE LIFTS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 15/06Z...FEW-SCT MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MID-MORNING. THEN VCNTY TSRA FORM AND MOVE
INLAND AS WINDS BECOME S-SW AND SW. PREVAILING VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
MVFR/LCL IFR IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVES SOUTH OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY. THIS RIDGE REACHES SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS EARLY
TUESDAY THEN CONTINUES SOUTH TO ALONG THE KEYS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE LINGERS THERE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN IT BEGINS TO
TRAVERSE BACK NORTH. GENERALLY BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED
ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS KEEP
DISPERSION LEVELS LOW. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE EACH NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
FMY  92  75  91  75 /  50  20  40  20
GIF  92  75  91  75 /  40  30  50  20
SRQ  91  75  90  77 /  40  20  40  30
BKV  92  72  91  72 /  40  20  50  30
SPG  92  78  90  79 /  40  20  40  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD








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