Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 272041
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
ALOFT...A TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING GOOD NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...A DRY
REINFORCING FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING ANOTHER BRIEF SURGE IN NW WINDS. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS TURNING MORE TO
THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
NORTH...MID 40S TO AROUND 50 CENTRAL AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
WEAK U/L SPLIT FLOW ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH PREDOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM FLOW WILL OCCUR FROM BAJA CA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST U.S.  U/L PATTERN WILL TRANSITION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A REX BLOCK TAKES SHAPE OVER ALASKA AND THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC...WITH ZONAL FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK AND
ENTERING THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WHILE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW RIDES
OVER THE BLOCK ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOWS WILL MERGE AROUND THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
HUDSON BAY.

SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL BE PINCHED OFF WITH AN U/L LOW
FORMING VICINITY OF BAJA CA.  EURO AND GFS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE LONG RANGE WITH THIS FEATURE AS THE EURO OPENS THIS LOW
RATHER QUICKLY AND EJECTS IT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  GFS HOLDS THIS FEATURE BACK SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE BEING
CAPTURED BY THE MAIN WESTERLIES.  THIS CREATES A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE REGARDING POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK IN BOTH TIMING AND STRENGTH.  WHEN THIS FEATURE
DOES EJECT...IT WILL PRESENT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

IN THE MEANTIME...GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CAROLINAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINKING SOUTH OVER FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.  AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
THURSDAY...MOVING TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE U/L FLOW.  U/L SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
EXTREMELY LIMITED SO NO POPS MENTIONED ATTM WITH THE FRONT.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND
WILL BRIDGE SOUTH OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  A MUCH
MORE EXTENSIVE L/W TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO BAJA CA WITH GOOD INFLOW OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A NORTHERN STREAM S/W
WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST U.S. SUNDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER U/L
SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING OUT RAPIDLY AND L/L CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAKENING.  THIS WILL CAUSE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ONLY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS PERSISTING AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ADVECTING OVER THE
REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL PICKUP THIS EVENING BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL APPROACH 20 KTS FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SCEC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL HUMIDITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOW ERC VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE THE
NEED FOR ANY WARNINGS. MOISTURE WILL THEN MODERATE FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  47  63  44  68 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  67  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  51  65  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  41  62  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  51  61  50  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN





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