Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 220805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THE WARM WATERS AND REMNANT BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED
OVERNIGHT IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS. WITH THE
HEATING OF THE DAY AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...ALLOWING SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH
ASHORE BEFORE THE MAIN CONVECTION OF THE DAY GETS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S TO MID 90S
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. PREFERRED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH HEAVY
INFLUENCE FROM A WARMER GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
RUNNING A BIT COLD THE LAST FEW DAYS...LIKELY DUE TO OVERDONE
CLOUD COVER.

ALOFT...A 500 MB LOW WILL BE RETROGRADING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE SOME ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND THE
NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. 500 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -7 TO -6 DEG
C NEIGHBORHOOD OPEN THE DOOR FOR SOME HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS.

PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING
THREAT AND THE FLOODING THREAT. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THE
STORMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BOTH OF THESE CONCERNS. IN THE
PAST...MANY OF THE DEADLIEST LIGHTNING THREATS EMERGE WHEN A STORM
DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. SLOW-MOVING STORMS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD ARE A
POSSIBILITY TODAY THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED BY THOSE OUTDOORS. THE
FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO INCREASED BY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RECENT RAINS HAVE KEPT MUCH OF THE
AREA MOIST...SOME RIVERS COULD FLIRT WITH FLOOD STAGE IF STORMS
DEPOSIT HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THEIR BASINS TODAY.

TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL AS THE SEA BREEZE
RETREATS...DIURNAL HEATING DISSIPATES...AND THE 500 MB LOW MOVES
AWAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THEY WILL LIKELY BE CONTAINED TO REMNANT
BOUNDARIES IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO WILL AGAIN USE A BLEND. A CLOSED
MID LEVEL LOW OVER LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND
OPEN UP AS IT RETROGRADES WEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AS UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST OVER THE PENINSULA
WHILE THE ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EACH DAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION EACH DAY WHICH WILL
FAVOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG
THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME FRAME IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
IMPINGING UPON IT. THE GFS/ECMWF DIFFER SOME WITH HOW THEY HANDLE
THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE GFS SHOWING A MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK WHILE
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE MASSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR-CORNER
AREA NOSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF
KEEPING THE MAIN EFFECTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION SHOULD PAN OUT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHICH WILL FAVOR A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IN TURN WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFTING EAST AND BECOMING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE OVER INLAND LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
CONVECTION THEN LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND HAVE
DEPICTED THIS SCENARIO IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG
THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR
FROM MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND HEAVY RAINS FROM MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME TERMINALS COULD SEE
BRIEF LIFR WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
EXPECT VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES...EXCEPT AROUND THUNDERSTORMS...THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO CONTROL AREA
WEATHER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RETROGRADES IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MORNING GROUND FOG IN FOG-PRONE
LOW-LYING AREAS AND LIGHTNING FROM MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS. RECENT WETTING RAINS AND EXPECTED MOIST
AIR/RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLD SHOULD MITIGATE
OTHER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  77  92  78 /  50  20  30  30
FMY  92  74  92  77 /  60  30  40  30
GIF  93  75  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
SRQ  91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  30
BKV  92  71  92  72 /  50  20  40  30
SPG  90  79  90  80 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





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