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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241521
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1120 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ACTIVE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. LONGWAVE PATTERN IS DOMINATED
BY DEEP TROUGHS ALONG BOTH THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS WHILE A
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS BISECTS THE CONTINENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES AT THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH IS NOW DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. THIS ENERGY WILL NOT
ONLY ACT TO CLOSE OFF A POTENT UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...BUT ITS MOMENTUM WILL ALSO HELP DRIVE A LATE SEASON COLD
FRONT DOWN AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS. 24/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE WAS DRY...BUT NOT UNSEASONABLY
DRY...JUST YET. HOWEVER LOOKING UPSTREAM TOWARD BIRMINGHAM AND
ATLANTA WE BEGIN TO SEE A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH
WILL BE SETTLING SOUTHWARD AND OVER OUR HEADS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT IS
READY TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED UP NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH A
DISTINCT DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY FROM MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
UP TO THE INTERIOR PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF AL/GA. THIS
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS IS ON ITS WAY TO US.

SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHES OF FOG ARE ALL BUT GONE LATE THIS MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES REGION-WIDE. STILL HAVE ENOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND EVENTUAL SEA-BREEZE FOCUS TO EXPECT A
SCT CUMULUS FIELD TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2 TO DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO THE SOUTH OF I-4 WHERE FRONTAL AND
SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ALIGN ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE NO SO FAVORABLE
TROP FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ONLY HAVE POPS AROUND 20% FOR THESE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...AND NO RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF I-4. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THEY
QUICKLY ENTRAIN DRY AND HOSTILE THETA-E AIR ABOVE 700MB INTO THEIR
COLUMN.

TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS PEAKING WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF 90. TYPICAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S NEAR THE BEACHES.

TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION FOLLOWED QUICKLY
BY STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. A
FAVORABLE NNE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS
AROUND LEVY/CITRUS COUNTIES TO DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S TOWARD
SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DROPS DOWN
INTO THE 60S. ANY ISOLATED EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL END WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SETTING UP A DRY AND
SEASONABLE PLEASANT OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH AT THE MOST FEW-SCT CLOUDS. NORTH
AND NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO UP TO 4 FEET. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION AND
ADVISORY HEADLINES NECESSARY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  69  90  66 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  91  70  91  65 /  20  20   0   0
GIF  93  67  89  63 /  20  10   0   0
SRQ  86  70  90  64 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  90  62  88  55 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  89  73  88  71 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE