Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 272014
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND OVER
THE PLAINS SUNDAY. AS THE COOL LAYER LEFT BY THE PREVIOUS FRONT
WARMED AND MIXED TODAY THE SKIES CLEARED AND SMALL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOPED OVER LAND AREAS. TONIGHT RADIATIINAL COOLING IN
THE MOIST AIR WILL LEAD TO FOG OVER THE PENINSULA THAT WILL BE
DENSE IN AREAS. ON SUNDAY AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. BY LATE SUNDAY THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS FILLING AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
INITIALLY STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY SHEAR OUT AND DEAMPLIFY AS
IT PROGRESSES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
MONDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT THAT THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HAVE AS
IT PASSES TO OUR NORTH WILL BE TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
PROTECTED OUR REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO RUN OUT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOMENTUM AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE AND
BECOME VERY LOW MOVING MONDAY NIGHT AS IT ENTERS THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING
MONDAY AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL. A SECOND WEAK PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY PASSING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY WILL GIVE THE FRONT THE FINAL PUSH
TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE BOUNDARY CLEARS TO OUR SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE ON
NORTHERLY/NE WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM QUICKLY EJECTS OUT
OF THE PLAINS DRIVING A FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HEADING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING NEXT WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS MAY ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TUESDAY FRONT WILL BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED RAIN DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERNIGHT IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THE AIRPORTS AS FOG DEVELOPS INLAND AND DRIFTS TOWARD
THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG
POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  67  78  65  76 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  65  81  66  78 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  78  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  61  81  60  80 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  67  78  66  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/TD/BAM




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