Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 020752
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
352 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE SAD REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. THIS IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. FOR THIS REASON...EXPECT LEVY AND PERHAPS CITRUS COUNTIES
TO SEE RAIN BEFORE MOST OTHER AREAS TODAY. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING...HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ASIDE FROM
ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

ELSEWHERE...WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION...A MORE SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST.
EXPECT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO DEVELOP AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS TENDS TO FAVOR A DECENT INLAND SEABREEZE PUSH...AND GREATER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-75. THE SAME SCENARIO LOOKS TO PLAY OUT ON THURSDAY...WITH
PERHAPS AN EVEN STRONGER INLAND SEABREEZE SURGE...AND GREATER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER INLAND.

WITH ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONSIDERING THE REMNANTS
OF ERIKA...AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN ANY
STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT STORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT THE NORM...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S...AND LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE REGARDING THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO START OUT THE
LONG TERM PERIOD ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BY THIS TIME WITH A DEEP AND SHARP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST. IN RESPONSE TO THESE LARGE HEIGHT FALLS...DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING WILL BE AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE CONUS INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA...AND THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTY/EASTERN CANADA BY SATURDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN SHOWN
BY ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO EXIST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER PERSISTENT AND EVEN SHOWN TO TRY AND CLOSE
OFF INTO THE BROAD UPPER LOW BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/EARLY PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...WILL BE SEEING A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST BUILDING/WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SHOW SOME SORT OF WEAK BOUNDARY / BACK-DOOR FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH WITH THIS WEDGE AND STALLING NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND THE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...WE ARE LIKELY SEE SOME SORT OF WEAK AND
LIKELY ILL-DEFINED TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. ANYTIME THE PATTERN
BECOMES ILL-DEFINED IT MAKES PUTTING MUCH DETAIL IN THE FORECAST
MUCH MORE DIFFICULT. WOULD SAY THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG TERM SHOULD
NOT HAVE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES FOR OUR
REGION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE FOCUS (OTHER THAN THE
NORMAL SEA-BREEZE)...AND SOME SORT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (AT THE
VERY LEAST A COOLER POCKET ALOFT)...SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD SCT-NMRS
DIURNAL STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY MAXIMIZED INLAND FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR. SOMEWHAT ODD FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER TO HAVE SUCH A PERSISTENT
UPPER LOW FEATURE TO DEAL WITH...BUT ITS HARD TO ARGUE WHEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM...AND FIM ALL SHOW THE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION. SO...WILL GO WITH A FORECAST FOR NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUDS/SHOWERS HOLDING BACK INSOLATION)...AND GENERALLY ABOVE
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE...NO DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT...BUT RATHER JUST AN UPTICK
IN THE COVERAGE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER
LOW.

GOING OUT A BIT FURTHER...BEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD. LONG
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE WILL LOSE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
LOW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
STORM TRACK HOLDS WELL TO OUR NORTH (AS IT SHOULD THIS TIME OF
YEAR).

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 14Z TO 15Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VCTS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
SCT TSRA LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN TSRA. VARIABLE WINDS AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF...GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE REMNANTS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF. THOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS...RATHER BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY WILL PREVENT
ANY WILDFIRE CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HIGH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THIS SUMMER...AND PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LAST 5 TO 6 WEEKS OR SO...HAVE BROUGHT NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS
THE AREA INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOOD STAGES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY
SIX RIVER FORECAST POINTS IN FLOOD STAGES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...AND TWO OTHERS ARE IN ACTION STAGE. PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/TAMPA AND CLICK `RIVERS/LAKES` ALONG THE RIGHT HAND
SIDE FOR UP TO DATE FORECASTS ON EACH RIVER FORECAST POINT.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE COMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  90  78 /  40  20  30  10
FMY  92  75  91  77 /  40  40  40  10
GIF  92  76  92  76 /  50  40  50  30
SRQ  90  77  89  79 /  30  20  30  10
BKV  92  74  91  74 /  40  20  40  10
SPG  91  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA


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