Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTBW 210832
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
432 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHEASTWARD...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED FROM
THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO
QUEBEC...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF COASTAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TRAILED A FRONT
THAT ARCED DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL FL THEN CONTINUED WEST OVER THE
GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE PIVOTS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH DEEPENING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG WITH IT/S SURFACE LOW SCOOTS QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GULF AND FL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY IN PLACE...RESIDING ACROSS FL BUT WITH THE
GULF PORTION SHIFTING SOUTH. THE PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST TO
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS WHILE THE FRONT SAGS DOWN
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A DEEP AND MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODEL PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM ABOUT 1.5
INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH TO OVER 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH VORTICITY LOBES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH AND SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT FROM THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE. EXPECT NOCTURNAL SHOWERS ON THE GULF TO TRANSLATE ONSHORE IN
THE MORNINGS THEN SPREAD LAND AS THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNINGS
INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. THE HIGHEST ODDS WILL GENERALLY BE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHERE THERE IS THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WITH A DEGREE OR TWO OF
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MON JUST A BIT COOLER THAN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD AS DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER ENERGY FROM A MEANDERING UPPER LOW
LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE STATE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY. EASTERLY FLOW WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS...AND IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR LOWS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/06Z-22/06Z. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH VCNTY SHRA IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VCNTY TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MFR/LCL IFR ESPECIALLY IN OR NEAR TSRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
MIGRATE NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK AND REACH NORTHERN GULF WATERS
THU. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE U.S. PLAINS THIS MORNING TRACKS ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS NEAR WEEKS
END. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 15 KNOTS/ 4 FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WINDS STAY FAIRLY LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  86  73 /  40  20  60  40
FMY  87  74  88  73 /  60  30  60  50
GIF  87  72  87  72 /  50  30  60  40
SRQ  87  74  85  73 /  50  30  60  40
BKV  89  70  87  68 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  86  76  85  75 /  40  30  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.