Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241055
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
555 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA FOG IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST AND MAY ACTUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE MORE ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE REGION TODAY AND COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL DEEPEN AND
MOVE EASTWARD HELPING TO INDUCE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE THE BOUNDARY TO
SLOW DOWN AND STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...THE BOUNDARY
IN THE AREA AND MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.

WITH SOME SUNSHINE TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE MID 80S
AWAY FROM THE COAST. NEAR THE COAST TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED
BY THE SEA FOG AND WINDS OFF THE COOLER GULF WATERS AND LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE LEVY COUNTY COAST TO THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION AND RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
TUESDAY EVENING WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN THE EASTERN GULF. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
FRONTAL POSITION FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CROSS THE PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AS IT PULLS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS...COOLING MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH ROBUST UPDRAFTS EARLY IN THE DAY. STRONG
STORMS ARE CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND
EVEN SOME HAIL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS
IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. THE LOW
CENTER WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TO JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER
BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING A
QUICK END TO THE STRONG STORMS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET PULLS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE SO SOME SHOWERS
OR MORE ELEVATED STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WE SHOULD ONLY HAVE A SHORT PERIOD OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR THANKSGIVING DAY WITH HIGHS PROBABLY NOT GETTING
OUT OF THE 60S.

THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
SURFACE RIDGE PARKS ITSELF ALONG 30 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A FANTASTIC WEEKEND WITH LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK THROUGH THE 70S.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...NEAR
THE COAST SEA FOG WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF
SITES OF PIE AND SRQ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS
WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM HUMID AIR HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SEA
FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS
THAN 1 MILE IN SOME AREAS. THEREFORE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED LONGER
AS THIS SEA FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AND NOT REALLY
GO AWAY UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT ON TUESDAY. THIS WHEN A COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OUT OVER THE GULF AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT. ROBUST
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. COOLER DRIER AIR WILL RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL 35 PERCENT THRESHOLD.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  69  77  59 /   5  20  90  90
FMY  85  71  83  65 /   5  20  70  60
GIF  85  69  78  58 /  10  20  90  80
SRQ  81  69  79  61 /   5  20  90  80
BKV  82  67  75  54 /  10  20  90  90
SPG  79  69  76  61 /   5  20  90  90

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




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