Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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713
FXUS63 KUNR 141003
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
303 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

STRONG SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT YESTERDAYS WEATHER IS NOW PUSHING
TOWARD THE MS RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND IT...NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE NEXT WAVE IS CROSSING THE NRN ROCKIES AND
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION THIS AFTN/EVNG. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
40S TO LOWER 50S...PRECIP WILL FALL AS RAIN. UPSLOPE ENHANCED PRECIP
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN BLKHLS THIS AFTN AND EVNG. RAIN ACROSS
THE BLKHLS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TODAY
INTO THE EVNG AS TEMPS COOL OFF. PRECIP WILL END AREAWIDE LATE
TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES E/SE. MONDAY WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAYS
WEATHER. THE NEXT WAVE WILL COME IN FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO MON NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO
THE AREA. STRONG UPSLOPING OVER THE NRN BLKHLS WILL
REDEVELOP...FIRST AS RAIN THEN CHANGING TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN MONDAY NIGHT BUT LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

EASTERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH WILL BREAKDOWN IN THE PERIOD...ALLOWING
MEAN RIDGING TO SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL NOAM. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A TREND TO MILD/DRY CONDS BY MID WEEK AS STAUNCH WAA SPREADS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER NW FLOW IMPULSE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...SUPPORTING RA/SN SHOWERS
TUE. WARM WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BY WED AND ESP THUR. HIGHS
ACROSS THE FA THUR LOOK TO APPROACH AND PASS 70 AT SOME
LOCATIONS...ESP IN THE LEE OF THE BH/S AND EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPING
WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL ARRIVE
THUR NIGHT/FRI. RETAINED LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA TUE NIGHT WITH FROPA.
OTHERWISE...THUR-FRI LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT BREEZY
CONDS. ACTIVE JET ACROSS THE PAC LOOKS TO SUPPORT MILD ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND...KEEPING ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP IN
NORTHERN CANADA AS RIDGING REMAINS CONFINED TO LOWER LATITUDES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY...SUPPORTING SCT SHRA/SHSN. ISOLD MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE
IN SH...MAINLY IN THE BLACK HILLS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC



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