Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 252100
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST...WITH A DVLP SFC
LOW NOTED OVR THE ERN ROCKIES. THIS RESULTED IN BREEZY SLY WINDS
ACRS AR THIS AFTN. WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS NOTED...MID AFTN TEMPS
MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

PERSISTENT SLY FLOW HEADING INTO FRI WL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE/LOW
CLOUDS TO INCRS ACRS THE FA. THE PRIMARY AXIS OF BEST RETURN OF LOW
LVL RH WL BE ACRS WRN AR THRU FRI...ALONG WITH SMALL RAIN CHCS. THIS
WL ALSO IMPACT MAX TEMP FCST ON FRI DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AT A
GIVEN LOCATION...WITH WARMER READINGS EXPECTED OVR THE ERN HALF OF
THE STATE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYS WL EVENTUALLY TRACK EWD AND BRING AN
ASSOCD CDFNT OVR THE WEEKEND. GOOD CHCS OF RAIN WL ACCOMPANY THE
FNTL BNDRY...WITH LIKELY POPS INDCD OVR ERN AR LATE SAT AND SAT NGT.
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FORM FURTHER SWD ALONG THE GULF COAST...
RAINFALL AMTS ACRS AR WL NOT BE EXCESSIVE.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH TAKING THE CDFNT DEW
AWAY FM THE FA SUN...WITH JUST SOME LINGERING RAIN CHCS NOTED OVR
SERN AR. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GEM...BRING
ANOTHER SFC LOW NEWD ALONG THE BNDRY WL RAIN CHCS PERSISTING ACRS
CNTRL AND SERN AR INTO MON. FOLLOWED CLOSER THE MORE CONSISTENT
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW AND WL CONT TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN BRINGING THE
NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE REGION...AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR
THURSDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER MIX...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...58




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