Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 030732
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
232 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ARE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN UP FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NE OF
THE REGION IN PREVIOUS DAYS DEEPENS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
EARLY SAT. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA
AREA WIDE INTO MIDDAY SAT AS ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES PASS OVERHEAD. A
WEAK FRONT WILL ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE STATE FOR SAT...BUT WILL
LIKELY NOT MAKE MUCH SWD PROGRESS BEYOND THE OZARKS.

WHILE A WIDESPREAD SVR THREAT WILL IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME SVR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SVR WX WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER.
EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL
COULD ALSO BE SEEN. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE CLOSER TO CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND EVEN FURTHER NORTH AS THIS IS WHERE THE
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AS STORMS COULD TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOME
SPOTS. AS A RESULT OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPS
NEARING 90 ACROSS THE SRN CWA.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
STATE...BUT LIKELY STALL OVER NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
INITIALLY...EXPECT POPS CWA-WIDE...BUT AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO THE
STATE...BEST POPS WILL DROP FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR SAT AS WELL...WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE THROUGH
LATE SAT...WHERE AREAS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FOR SUN...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
REMAIN AS WEAK WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE STATE SUN INTO
MON. LOOKS LIKE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED DURING
THIS PERIOD HOWEVER AS FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN SEEN
RECENTLY. AS A RESULT...A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NATURE WILL BE
SEEN...AND LIKELY BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. TEMPS WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY JUST APPROACH NORMAL BY MON
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVING THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING MORE EAST...WHILE A WEAKER W TO NW
FLOW SETS UP FOR THE REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SHORT WAVE DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY TO
WEDNESDAY...BUT IS WEAKER OVER AR. SLIGHT TO CHANCE CONVECTION IS IN
THE FORECAST OVER NORTHERN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL AR. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO STALL WELL NORTH OF AR...THEN LIFT MORE NORTH TO
THURSDAY. TOWARD THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION...LOWER THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN...AND
WARMING TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
START AT NORMAL LEVELS THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     82  68  83  68 /  70  50  40  20
CAMDEN AR         85  72  86  72 /  70  60  60  50
HARRISON AR       81  66  82  67 /  70  50  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    82  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  84  71  85  71 /  70  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     85  72  84  72 /  60  60  60  50
MOUNT IDA AR      82  70  85  70 /  70  60  60  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  82  67  84  68 /  70  50  20  20
NEWPORT AR        83  69  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     84  71  84  71 /  70  60  60  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   85  69  86  70 /  70  60  50  30
SEARCY AR         83  70  84  69 /  70  60  50  20
STUTTGART AR      84  70  83  71 /  70  60  60  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59





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