Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290009
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
709 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.AVIATION...29/00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR conds will prevail early this evening. A warm fnt, currently
over SRN AR, will cont to lift slowly NWD overnight. Low clouds/
MVFR cigs are expected to form as low lvl moisture returns. Cannot
rule out some SCTD SHRA/TSRA along and N of the fntl bndry.
Ongoing convection to the W of AR is expected to weaken as it
enters far WRN AR later Wed morning. VFR conds wl return S of the
warm fnt, as S/SE winds incrs. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 259 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Short term...Tonight through Thursday night

All models continue to indicate a severe weather event is likely
across the CWA starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through
part of Thursday. The NAM model is the most aggressive with its
solution but all short term models are indicating all modes of
severe weather are possible. The Storm Prediction center has the
majority of the state in an enhanced risk and it would not be
surprising to see this upgraded in further outlooks.

Latest water vapor imagery clearly shows the next shortwave
trough/closed upper low over the desert southwest. Meanwhile, the
latest surface analysis/satellite observations show a clearly
defined warm front over southern Arkansas. Warm front forecast to
lift to the north with a subsequent increase in deep moisture. A few
showers may accompany the boundary as it moves north tonight but
rainfall amounts will be light.

As the trough approaches on Wednesday/Wednesday night, strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern Texas
along the attendant cold front and move into western Arkansas during
the afternoon hours. As the line sweeps east, it will encounter a
moderately unstable atmosphere with the severe weather threat
continuing. Thunderstorm development will be aided by a developing
50kt plus low level jet with the severe threat continuing through
the night.

While models continue to support a linear storm mode, all types of
severe weather will remain possible including large hail and bowing
segments that could easily spin up a tornado. Models are coming
onto better agreement at this time that a second round of severe
weather will be possible over the east as the upper support swings
through. Again the NAM solution is most aggressive and would produce
another line of strong to severe storms with the possibility of
flash and river flooding if this pans out. System look to finally
clear the forecast area by the end of the period.

LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday

The long term period will begin with upper low pressure systems in
the east and west parts of the U.S. and and upper ridge over the
Plains. The upper ridge moves east to the eastern third of the
country on Saturday...while the western low does not move much.
However, by Sunday the upper low deepens and moves into Texas and
Oklahoma then passes through Arkansas Monday. The low moves into the
Great Lakes Tuesday and southwest flow returns to Arkansas.

Friday and Saturday will be dry across Arkansas but more rain
chances will follow Saturday night through Tuesday. Several short
waves will move across the state ahead of the approaching upper low
and bring increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. Good rain
chances are expected Monday as low pressure moves through the state.
Will keep a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday
as a week short wave moves toward the area. Mild temperatures will
continue.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$



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