Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 180613
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1213 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.AVIATION...18/06Z TAF CYCLE

Low clouds will increase overnight, with MVFR conditions
becoming widespread. Only isolated showers are expected. There
will be low level wind shear, with winds at 2000 feet from the
southwest at 40 to 45 knots.

Low clouds/MVFR conditions will continue Saturday morning
before VFR conditions return in the afternoon. A cold front
will push through the region from the northwest, and will
trigger isolated to scattered showers and a thunderstorm
or two.

Winds overnight will be south/southwest at 10 to 20 mph, with
gusts from 16 to 26 mph. Winds on Saturday will start off
south/southwest, shifting to the northwest at 20 to 30 mph
with gusts over 40 mph in places. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 300 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017)

DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of convection
with the front and upper system moving through the region on
Saturday. Elevated winds on Saturday with a lake wind advisory in
effect.

The large area of mid clouds over AR today has gradually moved
northeast and filled in over most areas except the far east. A
warm front has lifted into AR, with elevated south winds at 10 to
20 mph with some gusts. Morning isolated and light showers have
dissipated and moved east. Short range models are now showing most
of light convection developing later tonight. Temperatures have
warmed behind the warm front and are from the mid and lower 70s
south, around 70 central and 60s north. The zonal upper flow will
bring lift into the region later.

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Mostly cloudy this evening and overnight, with any light
convection focused over western to northwest AR, as weak lift
begins to move into the region. Also added some patchy fog to the
forecast as the warm and moist air filters into AR. South winds
will remain up and fog potential may be limited. Models are close
in timing of the cold front into AR, with around 12Z into far
northwest AR, around 15-18Z near LIT, then 18Z-00Z to eastern AR
and out of the state. Severe storm threat remains low, with SPC
indicating a Marginal Risk of severe storms over northeast AR.
The main lift will be focused north of AR, while low level jet
will be over AR on Saturday. Low instability and available
moisture are somewhat limited over AR, so convection is expected
to be limited. By evening, most of the convection will be east and
drier and cooler air will filter into AR. Winds will be elevated
on Saturday and a lake wind advisory will be in effect. Sunday
will be dry and cool.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

Not a lot of action to speak of in the long term with the exception
of a weak frontal boundary expected in the Tuesday evening time
frame. Much of the moisture will be cut off to the south and we can
expect very little in the way of precipitation. Biggest change will
be the drop in temperatures on the backside of the front. Highs on
Wednesday/Thursday will likely top out in the 50s. However, the
warming trend will likely resume at the end of the week.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Cleburne-Faulkner-Fulton-Independence-Izard-Jackson-
Jefferson-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Newton-Prairie-Pulaski-Searcy-
Sharp-Stone-White-Woodruff.

Lake Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening FOR Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Montgomery-
Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Saline-Scott-Van Buren-Yell.
&&

$$



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