Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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703
FXUS64 KLZK 110505 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1105 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE STATE. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY ON THU...EXPECT NRLY WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED AT 20Z FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS NE...TO GOODLAND KS...WILL APPROACH QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE IN THE MORNING. THE MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE A WIND SHIFT...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY GO BELOW NORMAL...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
INCREASES ON SUNDAY. PUT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX...MAINLY IN THE
OZARKS...WITH RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE INITIALLY
AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING...SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET WHERE
RAIN IS EXPECTED.

DATA IS SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND THEN LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
KEPT A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE OZARKS SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN
DRYING OUT. HAVE RAIN GOING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE.

THE SYSTEM PROVIDING THE MOISTURE WILL DEPART MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...62/57



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