Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 252314 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Some isolated SHRA/TSRA had again developed late this
afternoon/early evening across portions of the state...but are
starting to slowly dissipate. Will mention VCSH/VCTS for the next
hr or so...but overnight most areas should remain dry. The
potential for fog looks more limited for Wed morning...so have
left mention of fog out of most sites. The potential for SHRA/TSRA
will be lower for Wed...so have kept TAFs dry for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Data from KLZK radar indicate slow moving convective cells across
northeast sections of the forecast area. This weakly forced activity
has formed along an instability gradient. This activity will end
shortly after sunset.

The upper ridge that has affected the mid south in recent days is
forecast to weaken, and move westward during this period. A
northwest flow will be developing, and will support a cold front
to approach northern sections late. This feature will act on
moderate to strong instability to promote a few strong
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

Two things that I am focusing on in the extended term right now are
storm chances on Thursday night into Friday morning, and of course
the cooler and drier air moving in behind the cold front for the
weekend.

As for the storms, right now it looks like a squall line will likely
move southward across the state ahead of the main frontal boundary.
I am not too concerned about widespread severe weather, especially
on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge, and the lack of upper
level support. However, with the heat and humidity ahead of the
front, and a strong surface lift ahead and along of the front, I
certainly wouldn`t rule out a few events.

As for the cool-down, the front should result in a very pleasant
late-July weekend across Arkansas. Right now it looks like much of
the state will see highs in the 80`s on Saturday and Sunday, with
some lower 90`s creeping back into the picture by Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Conway-Faulkner-
Independence-Jackson-Johnson-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Perry-Pope-
Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff-Yell.


Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday FOR Clark-Garland-
Hot Spring-Montgomery-Pike-Polk-Scott.

&&

$$

Aviation...62



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