Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 260541 AAC
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1241 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING AT WHICH TIME SCT CU SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 4-5K FT AGL.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-12KT AT MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 15KT SO WILL JUST
ADVERTISE SUSTAINED WINDS. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN AFTER 00Z-02Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS CENTERED
OVER W TX TO W OK...AND UPPER FLOW IS KEEPING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF AR...HENCE A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE SOME UPPER CIRRUS OVER
NE AR...BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE EAST...TO THE LOWER
70S WEST. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG BUT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MORE WEST
TO CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES OVER TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PUSH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND DEEPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY...AND
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARMER
AND DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
INCLUDED SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BY MID-WEEK...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO
THE WEST OF THE REGION...AND WHILE IT WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO ARKANSAS.
AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THESE WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. NO...YOUR EYES ARE NOT DECEIVING
YOU...YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE NEAR-RECORD
DAILY LOWS...AND POSSIBLY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     92  71  93  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         94  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       92  70  92  66 /   0  10  20  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  92  72  95  72 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      94  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  70  91  65 /   0  10  20  20
NEWPORT AR        92  71  93  70 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     93  72  95  73 /   0   0  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         92  71  94  71 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      92  71  94  72 /   0  10  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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