Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 031753 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1253 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING CU FIELD ACROSS THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT LIKELY AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY. WITH THAT LINE OF THINKING...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER FROM CURRENT TAFS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS AND AMEND TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IF...WHEN...AND WHERE NECESSARY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE. SOME FOG WAS SEEN THIS MORNING MAINLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE
IT RAINED YESTERDAY. EXPECT SOME WILL BE PRESENT ON FRIDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD THIS WILL
BE SO JUST INCLUDED SOME AT KADF WHERE IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. ONLY QUESTION AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
HIGHER RES MODELS AND GFS INDICATE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL...WHILE EURO AND NAM HAVE NONE. ON WEDNESDAY...HAD
SIGNIFICANT OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES THAT SET UP AND CREATED ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HEAVY IN SPOTS. THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT IN MORE OVER
THE REGION AND THIS WILL BE A DETERMENT. ALSO...FORECAST INSTABILITY
FOR THE AFTERNOON IS NOT GREAT...WITH CAPE VALUES OVERALL LESS THAN
1000 J/KG AND LI -1 TO -5. ALSO LITTLE TO NO SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
SEEN IN THE MODELS. WILL DECIDE WITH LATE MORNING UPDATE TO ADD OR
NOT ADD ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LEANING TOWARD ADDING SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTER WEIGHING FACTORS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS ON TRACK TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP WITH DEW
POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT IS LESS THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...WITH ONLY A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE.

SHEAR AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO KEEP RAINFALL OUT OF THE STATE. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WHILE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY...WITH
READINGS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUCKLE LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE PLAINS LABOR DAY. BY
WEDNESDAY IT SHOULD GET THE PUSH FROM THE UPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH ARKANSAS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GENERALLY BE INCREASING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     93  70  93  71 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         95  72  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
HARRISON AR       90  68  91  69 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    93  72  94  73 /  20  20  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  95  73 /  20  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     95  72  96  73 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      93  69  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  92  69  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        93  70  93  71 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  71  94  71 /  20  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         94  70  95  71 /  20  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  95  72 /  20  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64



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