Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301138
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
638 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY AT
TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ALSO BEHIND THE
FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE PERSISTENT UPR RDG...THAT HAS BROUGHT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO AR OF LATE...WAS ALREADY STARTING TO RETROGRADE WWD EARLY
THIS MRNG. THIS HAS ALLOWED A WEAK FNTL BNDRY TO DROP SWD THRU NRN
AND CNTRL AR OVERNIGHT. THE FNT WL CONT WORKING SLOLY SWD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.

NELY SFC WINDS BEHIND THE FNT WL GRADUALLY BRING A DRIER AIRMASS
INTO MUCH OF THE REGION. LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG THE BNDRY
ACRS SRN AR TODAY. AFTN TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S IN THE VCNTY
OF THE FNT WL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 105 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE.
SO HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVY FOR OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTN.

AS A FAR AS RAIN CHCS GO...A WEAK SHRTWV WL WORK OUT OF OK AND APCH
WRN AR TODAY. THIS FEATURE WL INTERACT WITH THE LINGERING SFC BNDRY TO
PRODUCE WDLY SCTD SHRA/TSRA OVR THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA. SOME OF THE
HI-RES MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THAT W-CNTRL AND SWRN AR WL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS FOR STORM FORMATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY WL CONT TO WORK FURTHER TO THE S AND W OF
AR BY FRI AS SFC HIGH PRES BLDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. HIGH TEMPS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND WL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES MUCH
LOWER COMPARED TO LATE. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING ANOTHER WEAK FNT
SWD INTO AR LATER IN THE WEEKEND...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
IMPACT ON THE AREA.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO
BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS.

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
WEDNESDAY...TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         97  71  94  69 /  30  10  10   0
HARRISON AR       87  66  90  66 /  10  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    95  72  93  69 /  20  10  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  93  71 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     97  72  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      95  70  92  67 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        90  68  92  68 /  10   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     93  70  93  70 /  20  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   94  70  93  68 /  20  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         92  69  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      92  71  92  70 /  20   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51


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