Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 012335
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS. CONVECTION HAS LET UP AS
EXPECTED. AIRMASS TRYING TO RECOVER TO OUR NW BUT STILL SOMEWHAT
STABILIZED ACROSS OUR AREA. WENT WITH RATHER LOW POPS NEXT FEW
HOURS AND THEN WE INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE NEXT WAVE SEEN UPSTREAM HEADS SOUTHEAST AND TRIGGERS MORE
CONVECTION. KEPT WITH THE HIGHER QPF SW / LOWER NE DEPICTION
GOING...THOUGH OVERNIGHT POPS WILL BE HIGH EVERYWHERE. WILL TAPER
OFF POPS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL FORCING VIA IMPULSES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. COVERAGE SHOULD NOT
BE AS SIGNIFICANT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE A
BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE LATEST MOS OUTPUT. A STRONG STORM
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT (ISOLATED SEVERE). THAT WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE RELENTLESS
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR REGION CONTINUES...BUT WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND THE BETTER UPPER FLOW GETS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. THE
STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY THAT WAS SITUATED OVER THE REGION WILL ALSO
FINALLY DISSIPATE OR MOVE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...DUE
TO THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC BOUNDARY
REMAINING IN THE AREA...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR STORMS.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH THE BULK OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WAY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SAME IDEA CROSSES OVER INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES FAIRLY
NON EXISTENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND WITH
NO REAL TRIGGER FOR STORMS OTHER THAN HEAT OF THE DAY TYPE
CONVECTION...NOT INCLINED TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHANCE TYPE POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND BECOME A BIT
STRONGER THAN IT WAS OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL SET UP BY MONDAY...SO AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CREEP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OCCURING OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS
ADVERTISED TO REACH OUR AREA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ALL AVAILABLE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP JUST UPSTREAM EARLY THIS EVENING AND MOVE/BUILD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL
SITES...CREATING A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY JUST NORTHEAST OF KEVV AND
KOWB. FIGURE THAT CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO FOCUS FIRST ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATE EVENING. TRIED TO FOCUS THE TS TO A 4-6 HOUR
PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

MVFR IF NOT LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS MIXING DEVELOPS LATE
MORNING...SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT...AND
THEREFORE WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO FIGURE THAT OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ILZ084-085-
     088>094.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ001>013-016-
     017-021-022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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