Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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605 FXUS63 KPAH 102026 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 326 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather is expected through the weekend with a warming trend to the upper 70s-lower 80s by Sunday. - Showers and thunderstorms are forecast Monday-Tuesday. Potential for severe weather and/or flooding issues is limited. - After a midweek break, a chance of showers and storms is in the forecast for the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Patchy cumulus is moving southward through the Quad State region this afternoon. Temperatures have only risen to the upper 60s to lower 70s. Northerly winds are gradually becoming lighter, dropping below 5 mph overnight. A temporary shift to southwesterly flow is likely ahead of a cold frontal passage early tomorrow morning. Precipitation with the front is nearly entirely northeast of the Quad State, with only a slight chance of a light shower in the Evansville Tri-State. The front will limit clearing potential overnight, especially in the northeast. Behind the front, breezy winds are forecast, near Lake Wind Advisory criteria in the northeast Saturday. Dry weather and mostly clear skies are forecast for the weekend, with a warming trend as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday with southerly winds returning. Models agree on a trough with an embedded low pressure system moving eastward through the Quad State early next week. Showers and storms are in the forecast Monday morning through Tuesday night with the better potential for thunderstorms Tuesday as the low approaches. With limited shear and mediocre lapse rates, there aren`t model signals for severe storms. Rainfall around an inch will keep things soggy and potentially extend minor river flooding, but doesn`t stand out for flooding issues. The NBM has very little separation between this early week system and a late week system due to uncertainty on end time/start time, but models suggest there will probably be a solid 24-36 hours of dry conditions midweek as a narrow ridge moves through. Models agree on late week troughing to our west but have significant variation in structure, number of shortwave disturbances, and progression, leaving PoPs in the chance (30-50%) range for Thursday-Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Daytime cumulus has lifted to around 4000 ft and is expected to remain at VFR heights. Cloud coverage drops off overnight except for in the vicinity of a fairly dry frontal passage moving through the Evansville Tri-State. A brief shower cannot be completely ruled out but is low enough probability to be left out of the TAF for now. Northerly winds of 8-10 kts gusting to 15-18 kts today become light out of the southwest tonight before the front moves through early tomorrow morning resulting in breezy northwesterly winds during the day tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL