Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 282355
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
655 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS OVER SEMO CLEARING. LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD YIELD LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING...THOUGH TEMPS MAY
LEVEL OFF LATE TONIGHT OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO AS WINDS BECOME
SSE. SUNDAY MORNING...INCREASING CLOUDS...WITH RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
SPREADING SE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS IT PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A SURFACE FRONT AND MODEST MID LEVEL ENERGY. FAVORED
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER CONSENSUS OF THE EC/NAM/GEM VS THE FASTER GFS
WITH THE OVERALL PROGRESSION. NEVER THE LESS ITS MAINLY AN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EVENT...ESSENTIALLY GONE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. RETURN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BACK IN CONTROL. GIVEN WE AREN`T ISSUING FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS YET...NO PRODUCTS WILL BE MENTIONING THE JUST BELOW
FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...AT LEAST NOT UNTIL IT`S CONSIDERED A
HAZARD THROUGH AGENCY COORDINATION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED IS RELATIVELY POOR...SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER THAN AVERAGE. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM...WITH THE FORECAST AREA
NESTLED BETWEEN BOTH ACTIVE STREAMS. AS A RESULT...MAINLY DRY
WEATHER SHOULD CARRY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL THAT WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY COULD AGGRAVATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW AT
THIS POINT.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE APPROACH OF THE LOW WILL KEEP
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHILE STILL TOO EARLY FOR AN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT...SEVERE
WEATHER CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL LIKELY GIVE
WAY TO VFR CIGS BY AROUND 18Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE
SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



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