Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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619
FXUS63 KPAH 220609
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
109 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Temps ran into the lower 90s Thursday pm, and with High pressure
holding firm, see no reason why we won`t achieve those readings
again today. As a result, bumped today`s highs up a degree or two
from general guidance nos. The weekend looks hot too, above
seasonal norms at least, if not quite the levels of Thu-Fri, given
the longer lived slightly backed lower trop winds yielding a more
easterly input component.

Some models suggest isolated heat of day storms, the spectral GFS
moreso than the NAM. But the best agreed upon Pop day most likely
appears to be Sunday, and since we`ve carried Pops at least
Sunday pm for a few packages now, we`ll keep that going with this
combined model support/persistence strategy take. Best chance of
that isolated shower/storm, likely being SEMO, or southwest most
parts of the FA where the turn around flow appears to be trying to
develop/working around the strength of the gradually eastward
shifting High, and north of developing Low pressure aloft in the
lower Mississippi river valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

On Sunday, the center of the upper high that was centered near us,
will have migrated northeast over the eastern Great Lakes region. A
weak area of low pressure aloft will be situated over the Gulf Coast
states. Moisture will be increasing from the south and models hae
been advertising small chances for late morning/afternoon convection
for several days now, mainly over west KY and southeast MO.

Monday and Tuesday look dry aside from an isolated shower or storm
and continued warm and humid. The weak upper level disturbance to
our south weakens even more with time and becomes non influencial in
our weather.

A decaying front will be approaching from the west Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Models have pretty strong difference with regards to
QPF and how long it takes for the moisture to exit the area. This
will likely be ever changing for a few days until models can get a
handle on the upper level pattern which will be going through a
series of changes during that time.

However, the end result will be much cooler weather by the end of
the week and into next weekend. Instead of highs near 90, we will be
seeing highs in the mid to upper 70s by Thursday with much lower
humidity values.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

It`s a VFR flight forecast save for patchy fog potentially
yielding early am/sunrise restrictions to vsbys, where it
develops. Quick burnoff is anticipated with return to full VFR
from mid morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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