Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 240732
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
232 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

Temperatures at 2 AM were ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s
with fairly dry air and dew points in the low to mid 30s.

Water vapor shows a deepening trough over the central U.S. and a
fairly strong upper level jet streak south from Manitoba across
the plains and rounding the base of the trough along the MO/AR
border. 300mb upper air plot from 00z shows 120kts at SGF and some
130kts over western SD and eastern MT. 850 mb plots were showing
40-45kts over the upper MS valley and plains to the west of the
low which was over the UP of Michigan.

Main forecast focus points will be with 1) Winds today, 2) Frost
Potential tonight, 3) Light rain/snow mix Friday night, and 4)
Freeze potential Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

For today, there will be a strong push of Canadian air into the
region today. Northwest surface winds will remain below advisory
criteria, but we will have gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times. The air
mass will be dry with some sunshine, but high temperatures will
struggle in the low to mid 50s.

By tonight, the winds will relax compared to today, but the with
surface high centered to our southwest, don`t see widespread calm
winds. Our temperatures will dip into the low to mid 30s, most
areas above freezing. With the winds staying up a bit, not seeing
a widespread frost potential, but will mention patchy frost for
locations which will be cool enough.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

The trough axis will shift eastward on Wednesday and we should see
rising upper air heights and warmer air advecting in from the
west. Highs should rebound into the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and
back into the low to mid 70s by Thursday.

Another strong polar jet will dig south into the northern Rockies
Thursday night, carving out another deep trough across the central
U.S. by Friday. A cold front will push through during the day with
mainly rain showers with the front. Heading into Friday night,
most of the precipitation will have pushed east of the area, but
if there is any lingering precipitation, some light snow may mix
in with some light rain. At this point, it looks like a dry air
push will move in pretty quickly and shut off the precipitation
before things would change over.

It does look like we might see our first decent freeze Friday
night and Saturday night with lows from the upper 20s to around
freezing at this time. GFS showing 850 temperatures at -5C by
Saturday morning over the CWA. The nighttime freezing temperatures
may continue into Sunday night across the eastern CWA.

The trough will depart to the east on Monday and we should see
warming temperatures for the early part of next week.




&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

For the 06z TAFS...Expect gusty winds on Tuesday with some gusts
of 25 to 30 kts possible at the terminals. VFR conditions are
expected with a very dry air mass in place as high pressure builds
into the region behind a strong cold front.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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