Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 251946
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
246 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A surface boundary was located from southeast Kansas into northern
Missouri early this afternoon. Instability has developed south and
east of the boundary with surface based CAPES of 3000-4000 j/kg
over the Ozarks. 0-6 bulk shear was between 30-40kts. Main focus
over the short term period will be with convection potential,
especially over our northwestern 1/3 of the CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

For the remainder of this afternoon and tonight, we are
anticipating some scattered convection to begin firing up shortly
over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. More
organized convection is expected to our north and west again
tonight. PW values along the front to our northwest tonight will
be between 1.7 and 1.9 in. and our surrounding WFO neighbors to
our north and west will be issuing a flash flood watch for
tonight, given the already heavy rainfall from last night. Over
our area, main concern will be in our northwest 1/3 of the CWA
which could get the eastern extent of this convection tonight, but
at this time we are not expecting enough in the way to warrant a
watch in our cwa and we also did not get the rainfall as did the
areas to our northwest last night.




.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

The front is expected to hang around the area through the weekend
with continued chances for scattered convection anticipated. At
this time we are not expecting organized severe storms, but could
see some strong storms develop during the afternoon on Friday near
the frontal boundary. Cloud cover and scattered convection will
keep temperatures down slightly with highs generally in the mid to
upper 80s.

Can`t rule out thunderstorm chances on a daily basis given the
high moisture content and weak disturbances pushing through the
area. Little change in daily temperatures is expected through the
period.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: The main surface boundary will remain
north of the TAF sites through the period, which will be the focus
for more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Cannot rule out some
isolated storms further south this afternoon, but confidence no high
enough to include in forecasts. Otherwise, better chances for
convection will be late tonight/Friday morning as front sags
slowly southward. Consensus of models do show activity to remain
across central Missouri, but will include a prob30 after 12Z group
given closer proximity of front. VFR conditions expected through
the period, with the only IFR/MVFR flight conditions expected
would be any any storms that might impact the terminals.


&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Raberding



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