Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 280452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Surface high pressure has currently slid off to the east of the
area. Behind a front a few storms have developed across
northeastern Kansas. This activity will remain northwest of the
area and dissipate by early this evening.

The pressure gradient will tighten across the area on Wednesday as
the high pressure will be to the east of the area and surface low
pressure spreads into the Plains. Gusty winds will occur across
the region on Wednesday with gust over 30 mph expected at times
across extreme southeastern Kansas into central Missouri.

Upper level ridging will build over the region today, then get
flattened and be more of a zonal flow pattern across the region
Wednesday and Thursday. Still the storm track should remain north
of the area and no storms are expected across the area on
Wednesday. Highs will top out in the middle 80s to around 90
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

A complex of storms is expected to develop across the Central
Plains Wednesday night. The track of this system should keep
almost all the rain north of the area, but will have to watch if a
shower/storm or two can slide into the far northwestern portion
of the forecast area. Any storms that can make it into the area
Wednesday night will be weaken and should dissipate quickly after
they move in.

Highs will warm into the middle 80s to around 90 again Thursday
afternoon. A cap that will be in place across the area should keep
the day dry on Thursday. Another complex of storms is then
expected to develop to the north of the area Thursday evening then
slide south into and through the area Thursday night and Friday.
The front should then stall in northern Arkansas. Periods of
showers and storms will occur at times from Thursday night into
early next week. Will not be all day rains by any means, but rain
will be possible at times through this period.

The better instability will be north of the area Thursday night
but a strong to severe, mainly wind risk will occur especially
across the north Thursday night into Friday. Farther south will
depend on how much instability can develop ahead of the
approaching front/complex of storms.

Another shortwave trough may move through the area early next
weekend brining additional thunderstorm chances to the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

VFR conditions will persist through Wednesday evening with
increasing high clouds. Winds will increase out of the south and
become gusty on Wednesday. Gusts approaching 30 knots are expected
around Springfield and Joplin.




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