Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271215

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
715 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

A weak quasi stationary boundary is roughly along and/or just
south of I-44. Areas of dense fog are developing or have developed
near and south of the front over sw MO, while layered stratus was
occurring to the north. A dense fog advisory remains in affect for
the western/southwestern cwfa, but some near term adjustments may
be needed as trends warrant.

A weak sfc ridge will move east through our area today with low
clouds/fog burning off slowly. It wouldn`t be shocking to see
some clouds hold on into the afternoon over southern MO with a
lack of mixing, fairly deep moisture, and low late October sun

SREF and RAP (RAP through 04z) guidance indicates stratus/fog
redevelopment over at least some of southern MO tonight,
especially south central MO.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Unseasonably warm weather is expected to continue. Breezy/windy
and warm weather is expected Fri-Sat as the sfc high shifts off to
the east and another front approaches from the west. This next
front looks to stall/weaken over the area late Sat night into
Sunday followed by another repeat of the gusty south winds (Mon)
followed by a weak/stalled sfc front (Tue). Shortwaves associated
with these sfc boundaries pass largely off to our north so am not
expecting any significant precipitation.

There is some potential for change by mid/late week next week as
both of the ECMWF and GFS show a lower latitude disturbance
moving from the Rockies into the Plains. Better rain chances hold
off until after day 7, but we do have some precip chances by Wed.
There are still some timing differences in guidance with the ops
GFS faster versus the ECMWF.

After some brushes with generally light frost earlier in the
month, we definitely aren`t looking at anything close to a
killing freeze over the next few days. It looks like we will head
into November much warmer than normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 713 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Fog and low stratus will linger MVFR to IFR flight conditions
across the region into the middle morning hours. Flight
conditions will begin to improve to VFR after 18z with light
southeasterly surface winds through the day. Additional
limitations to visibility with fog may occur again late tonight
and through the early morning on Friday.


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-067-

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-



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