000
FXUS63 KSGF 291127
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Temperatures were still unseasonably mild early this morning
across the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas with
readings still from the low 50s to around 60. A cold front was in
the process of pushing into the area with a northwest wind edging
into the western CWA as of 2 am. A large low level cloud shield
was quickly tracking southeast behind the front and area of low
pressure and is expected to influence much of the CWA today. Near
term focus will be with the clouds and expected temperatures today.

Main focus thereafter will be with the storm system to affect the
region this weekend and the potential for some wintry weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Clouds were quickly streaming southeast across northwest Missouri
and should start to move into the forecast area by sunrise,
continuing to spread southeast across the area during the morning.
Low level RH SREF progs handle this pretty well and keep cloud
cover in much of the day with some clearing by late in the day and
early evening from west to east. An upper level shortwave will
drop southeast through the area today and will drive a colder air
mass into the region. The clouds combined with the cold air
advection will lead to little temperature rise after the sun comes
up this morning. It will be much colder tonight than what we are
currently experiencing with lows by Friday morning in the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

Southern stream upper level system will begin to push into
southern California and the Baja region later tonight and on
Friday. A closed low will develop with this system and ridging out
ahead of it in the southern into central Plains on Friday. The
closed low is expected to remain well to the southwest through the
weekend, but a northern stream shortwave will dive into the
northern Plains on Saturday and will probably start to see some
warm air advection precipitation develop over the area, from west
to east with good southwest flow aloft over the area in advance of
the upper low and a Gulf moisture feed at 850 mb. Precipitation
may begin out west on late Friday night or Saturday morning as a
mix of rain/snow, but should turn to all rain during the day as
temperatures warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Upper energy and frontal system will move into the area Saturday
night with best chances of precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday morning across the area. Temperatures are expected to cool
enough for some snowfall, especially in the northern 1/3 to 1/2 of
the CWA where a few inches of snow is expected at this time.
Further south, the rain will likely hold on a bit longer and the
transition to snow will be later so the further south the lesser
snow amounts are expected. Being that we will be in the transition
zone and models are still varying quite a bit with the thermal
profiles, the snow amounts will likely change over the next couple
of days.

Much colder air will push into the area behind this system Sunday
night and will likely see temperatures dip into the teens to low
20s with highs on Monday only in the mid 20s to around freezing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect MVFR ceilings this morning. A stratus deck was moving in
from the northwest, in response to a passing cold front. 2,000 ft
ceilings will spread across the entire area.

By early to mid afternoon, the stratus deck will exit southwest
Missouri, bringing VFR conditions back to our airports.

Northwest surface winds will become gusty today. Gusts will range
from 17 to 25 knots. These winds will lighten up late this
afternoon, but remain from the north through tonight.

No obstructions to visibilities are forecasted at this time.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer