Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301059
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...12Z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Early this morning, showers and thunderstorms had developed in a
zone of convergence along a frontal boundary over east central
Kansas into western Missouri, just northwest of the forecast area.
Elsewhere, it was quiet with clear to partly cloudy skies and mild
and humid conditions.

Expect mainly dry conditions through the early morning hours today
as a ridge of high pressure remains overhead. This ridge begins
to break down later today and tonight as a cold front begins to
slip south out of Iowa into northern Missouri. Model soundings
show atmosphere to be uncapped by afternoon in a weakly sheared
environment. Expect isolated convection once again, with perhaps
slightly better chances across central Missouri closer to the
front. Will continue lower end probabilities through tonight as
front slowly sags southward through northern Missouri.

Forecast area will remain on the warm side of the the front, with
highs one again in the upper 80s to lower 90s and rather
uncomfortable humidity levels.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

On Wednesday, a shortwave trough will drop out of Iowa through
eastern Missouri. This will drive the cold front through the
area. Expect showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it for most
locations at least through the early evening hours before drier
and cooler air begins to filter into the region from the north.
Not expecting any widespread severe weather, but cannot rule out a
stronger storm or two.

The cooler and drier airmass then settles over the region for
Thursday right through Friday as high pressure over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley region noses southward into the Ozarks.
This will make for some very comfortable conditions, with below
normal temperatures and low humidities.

The upper ridge begins to slowly build back towards the region
Saturday and Sunday as the surface high slips east into the eastern
Great Lakes. Low level flow becomes more southerly, pulling
moisture back northward. A slow climb in temperatures and humidity
levels is expected, but conditions will remain dry. The next chance
for rain will come Monday as upper flow becomes more southwesterly
allowing for weak shortwaves to traverse the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Today should be very similar to the last few days, with isolated
afternoon thunderstorms affecting the region. Coverage will be few
and far between, and as such have not included anything in the
TAFs for now. Winds will be light from the east to southeast.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Boxell



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