Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 281153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Temperatures are slightly warmer this morning than 24 hours ago.
Temperature values ranged from the middle 50s to the lower 60s
early this morning. Today will be slightly cooler than yesterday
as a cold front, now entering into northern Missouri, will
continue to move into our region.

Aloft, an upper level low is dropping southward from the Great
Lakes Region. This low should move just to our east over the
Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This will keep our area in a
rather cool northwesterly flow through the short term.
Temperatures tonight will once again drop into the upper 40s to
near 50 across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

The upper level low is forecast to camp across the eastern United
States through much of this week and into the weekend. That
aforementioned dry/mild northwesterly flow will certainly linger
into a good chunk of the long term. The upper low/trough will
slowly begin to push north and eastward by later this weekend and
early next week. This should allow for a weak upper level ridge to
build into the region, which should begin a gradual warming trend.

Rain chances over the next seven days look low at this juncture.
The best shot will likely be sometime midweek next week as a
strong cold frontal boundary and parent upper level trough moves
eastward into our area. The globals disagree on the exact timing
and impacts with this system. GFS looks slower and rainier,
however, ECMWF is more progressive (slightly delayed). The ECMWF timing
and trough orientation may signal a stronger storm potential.
Confidence is low regarding either solution at the moment,
however, it does appear toward the end of this cycle we`ll be in
for another cool down.

Temperatures again should be slightly below average through this
week with a gradual warming trend to around or slightly above
average later on in the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

VFR conditions will continue through tonight with mainly clear

Low level wind shear conditions will continue early this morning
ahead of an approaching cold front. Surface winds will then
shift to the north and become gusty by mid-morning as that front
passes. Winds will then diminish by early this evening.




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