Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 301804

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Showers and thunderstorms from residual convection from this
morning continue to move to the east across the eastern Ozarks.
This activity will continue to move east with the main concern
being lightning.

There is the potential this afternoon that heating of the airmass
in the wake of this morning storms across western Missouri and
southeastern Kansas will work to destabilize the atmosphere
enough for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. Current
thoughts are that areas from Baxter Springs to Hermitage to
Vienna and north will see the best potential for severe storm
development. This has been noted by SPC with the upgrade to a
slight risk across much of that area. The remainder of the Ozarks
could see an isolated strong to severe storm as well.

The primary concern remains large hail and damaging wind gusts.
This mornings sounding did show an inverted-V,though the overall
theta-e`s were not great. The airmass that will be moving into the
Ozarks this afternoon and evening will be advecting in from
northeastern Kansas however, which was a bit better. Additionally,
a short wave moving to the southeast will begin to provide help
for storm development.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

We will see a more active and rather complex weather pattern get
underway today. Convection had developed overnight north of a
diffuse surface boundary and along an axis of moisture advection
and weak mass convergence within the 925 to 850 MB layer. Expect
this convection to gradually increase from west central into
southern Missouri into the morning hours.

Additional convection will develop as the day progresses into
tonight along a front dropping southward toward southern Missouri
and ahead of a low amplitude shortwave tracking eastward across
the central Plains. A convective complex may take shape across
Kansas by this evening and spread into portions of the area.

An increase in deep layer shear to around 30 kts and moderate
instability will support the potential for strong updrafts in
multi-cell clusters and the risk for a few severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

The southward sagging front will stall across the area Friday
providing the focus for continued convective development. Models
continue to depict this front to lift northward Friday night and
Saturday as the upper level flow begins to flatten and a shortwave
moves into the central high Plains. In this scenario convection
will become focused across central Kansas and Missouri heading
into Saturday and Saturday night. While thunderstorm development
could occur anywhere across the area the most concentrated
development will occur across our central Missouri counties and
areas to the north.

The aforementioned shortwave and attendant front will track into
our region Sunday bringing an increase in the coverage of showers
and thunderstorms area wide. The potential for severe weather will
have to be monitored Sunday afternoon and evening given the
seasonably strong shortwave.

At least a chance if not likelihood of showers and thunderstorms
will continue into the 4th of July as the shortwave moves over and
to the east of the Ozarks.

In regards to the flooding risk, it appears the heaviest rainfall and
potential for excessive amounts will impact mainly central Missouri
and Kansas along the I-70 corridor and as far south as the Truman
Lake and Lake of the Ozarks regions. A southward shift of the
front would bring the potential for excessive rainfall farther
south into southern Missouri.

Given the continued uncertainty of the exact placement of
potentially excessive rainfall and resultant flooding risk emergency
managers, park officials, and those with plans along area streams
and rivers should continue to monitor the latest weather
information going into this weekend.

The upper ridge will gradually build northward next week but a
lingering boundary and a moist and unstable airmass will probably
keep the chance of diurnally driven convection going. Otherwise
seasonably hot and humid weather is expected.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Aviators flying into southwestern Missouri can expect generally
good weather through the forecast period. There is the potential
for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop this afternoon
and tonight however, the coverage and location of the storms will
be difficult to pin down, have included vicinity storms as a
result. Where storms do occur, impacts to aviation will occur, but
will handle that on a short term basis.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Foster
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