Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 102342
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

For the rest of today and tonight, we will see the pressure
gradient continue to tighten and winds will continue to increase
tonight as low pressure begins to track east into the plains.
Warm advection cloud cover will persist and temperatures will
likely remain fairly steady or warm overnight. Precipitation will
be fairly light, but is not expected to begin until early Sunday
morning. Parts of the far eastern Ozarks may have a 1-2 hour
window for some very light freezing drizzle/rain before surface
temperatures rise above freezing, but should not cause any
hazardous conditions to develop. QPF chances will increase during
the afternoon and evening hours, especially over the southeast 2/3
of the CWA as the cold front pushes through.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Rain should come to an end over the eastern Ozarks prior to the
overnight hours and sub-freezing surface temperatures should
occur AFTER the precipitation ends. The cold air behind this cold
front will be fairly shallow and 850mb temperatures should remain
above freezing.

Another cold front will push through late Tuesday night into
Wednesday which will have a deeper cold air mass behind it. GFS
has come into more agreement with the ECMWF from yesterdays 12z
runs in have this be a fairly dry front that moves through. The
cold air will linger through Thursday, however similar to the
current system, we will have strong warm air advection take place
Thursday night into Friday which could bring us a bit of wintry
weather initially before changing over to rain.

Models still struggling in the outer periods. GFS brings up
obscene dewpoints into the low 60s and as a result develops
200-300 j/kg of cape. ECMWF brings the front through earlier on
Friday night with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s with
almost no CAPE. At this early point in the forecast, will keep
thunder out of the official database for now, but keep this in the
back of my mind.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Pilots can expect a gradual deterioration in flight conditions
tonight into Sunday. Ceilings will lower with MVFR conditions
becoming prevalent Sunday morning. Areas of light rain and
drizzle along with patchy fog will develop Sunday as the low
levels of the atmosphere saturate.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster



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