550
FXUS64 KTSA 192320
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Storm chances, timing and severity are the main concerns tonight.

A southern stream jet extends from a system well off the coast of
SoCal/Baja east into the Desert Southwest. The nose of this jet
has entered the southern High Plains just ahead of a PV max over
northern NM. At the surface, a dryline extends south over the
eastern TX Panhandle and the TX South Plains and curves northwest
back toward an area of low pressure near the Raton Mesa in SE CO.
A warm front extends northeast from there across central and NE
KS.

As lift increases with the approaching northern NM wave, storms
will begin to fire on the dryline this afternoon and spread east.
CAMs suggest the best coverage will be across KS, which makes
sense given the track of the upper wave. A bow echo with
widespread damaging wind potential is expected across KS tonight.
Just to the south of this, CAMs have isolated to scattered likely
severe storms down into NW OK ahead of the dryline. These storms
could track into NE OK closer to the KS border this evening and
overnight with a continued severe wind and hail threat, though
likely weakening with time as they spread east/northeast. Time
window for severe in NE OK looks to be roughly 03Z to 06Z. Storm
chances will wind down toward 12Z Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The dryline likely stays capped on Monday, so the main focus for
storms will be the front across KS, and this activity should
remain north of the state line thru Monday night.

Focus then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday, the days which appear
to have the greatest severe potential this week. The system off
the coast of SoCal/Baja will be ejecting into the central Plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening, optimally timed with max diurnal
heating. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching from the
north and a dryline will be mixing farther east closer to the
I-35 corridor. Mid level temps will be warm, but the glancing
influence from the upper wave should weaken the cap enough to
allow for at least isolated storm development north of I-40
Tuesday afternoon. With H5 flow expected to be greater than 50kts,
deep layer shear should be plenty strong for supercells. The
initiation zone will be closer to our area, so any cells that
develop will be maturing as they move across E OK and possibly
into NW AR and will be capable of producing higher-end severe
weather. Low level shear will increase by evening, increasing the
tornado threat with any ongoing discrete cells. Storms will also
begin to develop along the front across NE OK during the evening,
though these storms will be more multicell and linear, and not as
high of a severe threat as they spread southeast Tuesday night.
The slowly sagging front will be the focus for more storms on
Wednesday as the airmass destabilizes with daytime heating, mainly
to the south and east of I-44. A severe wind/hail threat will
continue with these storms as they track southeast.

The front never really clears our area, meanders over the region
and interacts with the next wave to produce another round of
storms Wednesday night into Thursday. It is during this time when
severe threat maybe wanes a bit and locally heavy rainfall and
flooding threat increases. We may get a break in the action for
much of Friday before storm chances increase toward next Sunday
with the next system moving across the central Plains.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Decaying thunderstorm complex is forecast to move into portions
of northeast Oklahoma in the 05-06Z time frame. Strong/gusty winds
will be likely with any of the stronger storms. This activity
could move into northwest Arkansas late tonight but overall
coverage will likely be greatly diminished and was handled with
PROB30 groups for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected with
southerly winds increasing during the day Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  90  74  88 /  50  10   0  20
FSM   69  91  70  90 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   70  90  72  86 /  10   0   0  10
BVO   65  89  70  89 /  60  20   0  20
FYV   66  88  69  89 /  10  10   0  10
BYV   66  88  69  89 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   67  89  72  88 /  30  10   0  10
MIO   66  88  71  88 /  40  20   0  20
F10   68  89  72  87 /  40  10   0  20
HHW   67  88  70  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12