Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 251057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017



VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Northerly winds
will become light during the day, with a shift toward a more
southerly direction tonight at all terminals except for FSM`s
climatological easterly wind.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 359 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017/

Sfc high translates overhead today yielding clear skies and
seasonably cool temps. Return to southerly flow on Sunday brings
warmer temps while a weak wave passes providing mostly cloudy
skies and a chance of showers during the day. The wave currently
offshore the Pacific Northwest will approach the region Sunday
night. Warm frontal zone strengthens near the Red River and
upglide in advance of this wave is expected to spread widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms across mainly far eastern OK
and western AR Sunday night into Monday.

A brief lull in the active pattern appears likely Monday night
before influence from the next wave arrives on Tuesday. The latest
data has trended more northward with the warm sector for this
time frame with unseasonably warm temps likely and this forecast
may be conservative on high temps for Tuesday. Additionally the
trend is for a later frontal passage which allows noticeably
higher dewpoints to spread westward with a corresponding and
appreciable uptick in available instability. Convection would be
expected as the sfc front moves eastward Tues night into Wed
morning with current shear/instability progs well into the severe
weather space. The largest uncertainty remains that mentioned in
previous forecasts of the strong and active flow being difficult
to pinpoint both wave timing and strength. This impacts the sfc
pattern and ultimately the chance and strength of any convection.

Once the front clears the area on Wednesday a more tranquil
weather pattern is expected through late week as upper ridging
amplifies to our west and sfc high pressure prevails through the
central U.S.




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