Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 230221
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
921 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Heat Index values have mostly fallen below 100 degrees as of 9 PM,
but not much relief overnight and another dangerously hot
afternoon Sunday. Lows tonight may be slightly cooler across far
northeast OK as outflow from storm complex in Kansas may push
far enough south. Radar trends continue to show outflow from this
complex surging well ahead of main precip core and while some
spotty re-development may continue into areas near KS/OK border
after midnight, overall impact should be minimal as short range
guidance suggests. Going forecast of slight chance POPs in the
far north will be left as is, and only updates this evening were
to refresh the NPW and hourly grids.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 648 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
There is a low chance of thunderstorms impacting BVO late tonight as
storms over central KS organize and spread southeast overnight.
Additional low thunderstorm chances will occur across nern OK/nwrn
AR sites Sunday afternoon as a weak frontal boundary drifts into the
region. Outside of any of these low probability events impacting the
aforementioned airports, VFR conditions will prevail through this
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 234 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Excessive/dangerous heat continues this afternoon with heat
indices already at or above 110 degrees across much of northeast
Oklahoma. Low level moisture has increased across aforementioned
area from yesterday with 24 hour dewpoints running a couple of
degrees higher. GOES-16 derived PWAT also indicates an increase
with a deeper moist axis across eastern Oklahoma compared to
Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions
of Kansas this evening with a low chance of storms moving into
far northeast Oklahoma late tonight. A weak outflow boundary from
decaying convection could move in far NE OK, dropping low temperatures
a degree or two compared to the last few nights.

Hot/humid conditions again expected on Sunday ahead of a weak
frontal boundary which will move into northeast Oklahoma/northwest
Arkansas during the afternoon. Will continue with the current
heat advisory/excessive heat warning configuration for now given
some degree of uncertainty on high temperatures. Increased
dewpoints across NE OK/NW AR however may offset slightly lower
temperatures, keeping heat indices in 105-110 degree range.

Scattered thunderstorms are still expected near frontal boundary
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Some of the short
range/higher resolution models show convection that develops over
NW AR propagating SW into eastern Oklahoma along instability axis.
A few of the stronger storms could produce locally damaging
downburst winds and heavy rainfall.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms will remain possible both Monday
and Tuesday near any residual outflow boundaries or convectively
induced MCVs. Upper ridge will build back over the region by
Wednesday with the hot/humid conditions returning at least through
the remainder of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  98  75  96 /  10  30  40  20
FSM   78  98  77  94 /   0  30  50  40
MLC   78  97  74  94 /   0  30  40  30
BVO   76  96  69  94 /  20  30  40  20
FYV   73  93  70  91 /   0  50  50  30
BYV   75  94  72  91 /  10  50  40  30
MKO   76  96  75  93 /   0  30  50  30
MIO   76  94  71  94 /  20  40  40  20
F10   77  98  75  93 /   0  30  50  30
HHW   76  95  75  94 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-059-063-068-
     069-072-076.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ054>058-
     060>062-064>067-070-071-073>075.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99



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