Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 222042
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
242 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly quiet forecast once again for the most part, with a couple
of potential fire weather days being the main highlights. Surface
high pressure across the region has kept temperatures several
degrees below normal and winds relatively light this afternoon.
Southerly winds will return overnight as the high pressure shifts
east of the region. This should keep result in warmer low
temperatures than those seen this morning. However, given the low
dew points currently across the area and the likelihood of at
least a few hours of light winds tonight, have trended toward the
colder side of guidance, which is below the blended values in most
spots.

The warmup begins tomorrow with temperatures rebounding to above
normal levels. Temperatures on Friday will be even warmer, ahead
of the next cold front. Winds on Friday will not be too breezy,
which could keep the overall fire danger in check despite minimum
relative humidities in the 30 to 35 percent range in most of the
area. The cold front will move through Friday night and into
Saturday morning, with a wind shift and slightly lower
temperatures behind it for Saturday.

Monday looks to be the warmest day upcoming as upper level ridging
builds into the southern and central Plains region. Have gone
several degrees above the blended guidance, nearer to the MEX
values, for highs on Monday. Minimum afternoon humidities in the
35 to 40 percent range, in combination with south to southwest
winds gusting near 40 mph at times, will lead to the worst fire
weather day of the period.

Another cold front will move through during the Tuesday to
Wednesday time frame. This front will have an increased potential
for rain along it, with southwest flow aloft providing a window
for some moisture return before it moves through. Temperatures
nearer to normal values will follow this front for the middle to
latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   32  64  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   31  64  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   29  63  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   27  65  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   27  61  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   29  62  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   30  63  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   28  61  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
F10   31  65  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   31  63  38  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....22


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