Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 021943
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK...THEN A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD ADVANCE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY FADE IN THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH
COULDN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE TROUGHING
TO THE WEST AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE. STILL A SLIGHT RISK OF A
SEVERE STORM AND/OR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAYBREAK GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND STICKY NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND CLOSER TO 80 AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...EXTENDING FROM THE GULF STATES...EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S EACH DAY...AND COUPLED WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY...WILL TRANSLATE
TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 100-105. THESE HEAT INDICES ARE BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT STILL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE.

AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT MORNING FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST BY
AFTERNOON EACH DAY. THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE WEDNESDAY...THEN
EXPECTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER/DEEPER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MARINE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING...THEN SHIFT INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. HAVE
CONTINUED GENERALLY CHANCE POPS INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES
WILL BE AT LEAST 2000-3000 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. THUS...ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

GIVEN ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...
COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND MINOR FLOODING. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES DEEPER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION MORE PROGRESSIVE /LESS
LIKELY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS/.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL GIST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEAR CONSTANT RIDGE ALOFT WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE REGION AS IT CONSOLIDATES TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS
FALL ALOFT AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE STALLED BOUNDARY
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PERIOD ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS SUCH THE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES...REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. ALSO...POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 40 PERCENT RANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN GEORGIA SOUTH OF KSAV AND
SHOULD SOON DO THE SAME FARTHER NORTH OVER EASTERN SC NEAR KCHS.
WE MAINTAINED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WEST OF THE TERMS AS THE SEA BREEZE GATHERS SOME STEAM
AND PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST CHANCE OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE AT
KSAV THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER TONIGHT WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
LOW STRATUS AND/OR LIGHT FOG CLOSE TO DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IF
RAIN FALLS TODAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE
WEEK. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO CEILING AND VISIBILITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EARLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN INLAND TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WILL MAINTAIN S/SW
WINDS ABOUT 10-15 KT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA. IN GENERAL... SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 15 KTS
OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WATERSPOUTS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...RFM/RJB
MARINE...RFM/RJB







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