Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
161 FXUS62 KCHS 152243 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 643 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will become re-established over the area tonight, as tropical invest AL93 passes across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf. It will be significantly less active than previous days with just scattered showers, and some thunderstorms, moving onshore and progressing inland at times this afternoon. The remainder of the evening and overnight will be relatively quiet with rain chances largely confined to over the waters, however a few showers could make a run for the coast late. It will be another mild night with low temperatures in the low to upper 70s, highest near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will prevail over the local region through the end of the work week. This will yield a typical summertime patter of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Owing to the building high pressure, temperatures will warm into the end of the week, with low to mid 90s Wednesday warming to the mid to upper 90s by Friday. The current forecast features heat index values of 102-110 on Friday, a Heat Advisory may be required for portions of the forecast area. However, afternoon showers and thunderstorms may limit the overall warming, possibly keeping heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria. Overnight lows will be mild, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s, warmest along the beaches. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ensemble guidance supports upper ridging prevailing through the weekend, with high pressure holding strong at the surface as well. The building high pressure will yield warming temperatures, with locations reaching into the upper 90s through the weekend. Heat Advisories may be required for portions of the forecast area as heat index values reach upwards of 110 over the weekend. A typical summertime pattern of isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 16/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through much of the 00z TAF period. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to push onshore across KCHS and KJZI around sunrise. TEMPO groups were highlighted in MVFR vsbys in -SHRA from 12-15z at KJZI and 13-16z at KCHS to address this. The risk for shower/tstm activity is too low to mention at KSAV at this time. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening hours. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: Southeast flow will become more southerly tonight as tropical invest AL93 passes across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf, and high pressure becomes re- established over the area. Somewhat of an enhanced gradient will maintain speeds largely in the 10-15 kt range, with some gusts approaching 20 kt. Seas will build to 3-4 feet. Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure will dominate across the marine zones through the end of the work week and into the weekend. This will yield southeasterly flow generally 10 to 15 knots and seas averaging 2 to 3 ft. Gusts along the coastline could reach around 20 knots each afternoon associated with the sea breeze. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$