Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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000
FXUS62 KCHS 251121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CENTERED OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND
SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TODAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16. DRIER AIR
AND MORE STABLE/CAPPED MID LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NE OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST THE
GLANCING MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND TO THE W OF I-95 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
MID AFTERNOON. OUR INLAND GEORGIA ZONES INCLUDING LOCALES SOUTH OF
METTER AND STATESBORO COULD SEE ACTIVITY BECOME LOCALLY SCATTERED
WITH A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE GETS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WE INTRODUCED A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POP IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA ZONES.

SE SOUTH CAROLINA...BRIEF ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH THE SEA BREEZE
IS POSSIBLE INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE BUT WITH VERY WEAK MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN PLACE ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK AND
SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TODAY BUT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF MORNING CLOUDS AROUND WE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO IN
QUITE A FEW LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH OF CHARLESTON. NO CHANGE TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW REGIME BUT THE GRADIENT LOOKS JUST A BIT WEAKER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF AREAS OF LAYERED
CLOUDS AROUND AND QUITE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST ON TUESDAY...POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO POP UP INLAND.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAKER CAPPING TO SUPPORT 20-30 POPS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE FARTHER INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REGIME PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SITS OFF THE COAST. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FARTHER NORTH...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE WHICH WILL MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR AT KSAV INTO MID
MORNING AS STRATOCUMULUS MOVES INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...
OTHERWISE VFR AT KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CLOUDS AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT AT KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAV LATE MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW/FETCH...ALTHOUGH THE
SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT. ONSHORE E TO ESE FLOW
WILL AVERAGE 15 KT WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE DECREASING TO 3-5 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS MORNING.

BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...MAINTAINING ONSHORE FLOW AT OR BELOW 15 KT AND
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE COAST.

RIP CURRENTS...MARGINAL SWELLS AND PERSISTENT/ELEVATED/ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK ALL BEACHES TODAY.
AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE WEAKER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL


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