Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 030223
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
823 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
EVENING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...OF THE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED VARIETY...FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE RECENT
RAINS HAVE MOISTENED THE LOWER LEVELS HOWEVER WITH GOOD MIXING AND
CLOUDY SKIES FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT FOR THE REGION. PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER DISTURBANCES EXTENDING WNW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
BRITISH COLUMBIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY AS A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER RIDGE OVER CANADA HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH PROGRESS.
AS A RESULT...THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HAS BROUGHT
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE HAS
KICKED OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING EAST THROUGH
FERGUS COUNTY.

THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE CWA AROUND 6 PM
WHILE THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE THE SW
ZONES THIS EVENING. GFS HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS...WHILE THE
NAM HAS BEEN TOO WET AND POSSIBLY SLOW WITH THE RAIN SHIELD.

TONIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MOIST WHILE
PRECIPITATION FREE. FOG SHOULDN/T BE TOO MUCH OF A WORRY AS CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THINGS GRADUALLY DRY OUT AND REMAIN STABLE. BUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER CALIFORNIA
WHICH ALLOWS DISTURBANCES TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS UP FOR BREEZY SE
WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
TFJ

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE LONG RANGE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT CONDITION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION...AND ANOTHER ON FRIDAY NIGHT AN SATURDAY. A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. INHERITED FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES WERE BUMPED UPWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER FOR A COUPLE OF MODEL CYCLES NOW.
OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... LOOK FOR WEAK SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. WITH A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE... EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A MOIST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SPIN OFF AN UPPER LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MERGE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE CALIFORNIA LOW NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN MONTANA BY MONDAY AND EASTERN MONTANA ON TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE TIME IT
REACHES EASTERN MONTANA AND BRING LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR NOW. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS TO GENERALLY CONTINUE...BUT A STEADY RETURN TO VFR IS
IN ORDER FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS BY LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL PREVAIL
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. MALIAWCO/MICKELSON

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.