Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 100904
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
204 AM MST Sat Dec 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Mon...

Synoptic Setup: Short term begins with a large polar airmass over
eh majority of Canada and dipping down into the MidWest, northern
US Plains and northeastern Montana. To the west is a zonal flow
coming out of the coast of the Pacific Northwest and stretching
out to the front range which is providing an express lane for
pacific Moisture bursts, the first of which is moving onshore
over southern British Columbia and aimed directly at us.

Today through tonight: First shortwave will arrive this afternoon
bringing Pacific Moisture to the region. Snow totals will bring 2
to 3 inches over a 12 hour stretch. Lead up to the shortwave this
morning will bring stronger wind which should have a wind chill
effect prior to the snow.

Sunday through Monday: center of the polar airmass will drop
south into central Saskatchewan further cooling the airmass over
northeast Montana. As this happened a wave from central British
Columbia will meander over the region and provide enough lift with
the cooling for any remnant moisture to precipitate out in a
couple inches of snow Sunday night. GAH


.LONG TERM...Mon night through Sat...

Monday Night and Tuesday: Polar Vortex will be centered over
Manitoba. NW flow aloft will bring bitter cold Arctic high
pressure into Northeast Montana and mainly dry weather.

While the vortex moves east Tuesday Night and Wednesday, high
pressure remains over the forecast area with bitter cold and dry
weather continuing.

A storm system moves inland from the Pacific on Wednesday and
moves across Wyoming Wednesday Night staying well south of the
forecast area.

A reinforcing Arctic cold front drops south out of Canada Thursday
Night followed by an upper trough on Friday. The base of the
trough will move through California Friday and the desert SW on
Saturday. Most of the precipitation will also stay to the south.
Meanwhile, Northeast Montana may see some light snow. Will mention
a chance of snow for now. Forrester


&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions early this morning will turn to MVFR as
ceilings lower ahead of snow that will move into the area by this
afternoon. IFR are expected in snow this afternoon and evening.

Ceilings/Visibilities improve to MVFR from west to east tonight.

WINDS: East 10-15 kts today turning north and diminishing tonight.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for Central and
Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...Daniels...
Dawson...Eastern Roosevelt...Garfield...McCone...Northern
Phillips...Northern Valley...Petroleum...Richland...Sheridan...
Southwest Phillips...Western Roosevelt...Wibaux.


&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow



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