Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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798
FXUS65 KGGW 110943
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
243 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

TRUE TO RECENT MODEL CONSENSUS...THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN AXIS OF MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL STRETCHES
FROM OPHEIM TO SIDNEY. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING
AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT BEGIN CANCELING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADVISORY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH MOST PRECIP HAS CHANGED OVER TO ALL
SNOW...THERE STILL EXISTS A CHANCE FOR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW
MIX ALONG A NARROW EDGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MAIN
PRECIP BAND.

SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS NEAR THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND COULD RECEIVE
SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE
PRECIP TO TAPER OFF TOWARD THE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AS THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING PACNW
TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN RIDGE TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTRY MIX TO PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA. AT THIS
TIME...AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS AMID
SOME MODERATE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS. SHOULD COME INTO BETTER FOCUS
OVER THE NEXT DAY. BMICKELSON


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOOK FOR NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND RIDGE TO THE WEST. WILL SEE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER AND
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

MODELS DIFFER ON TUESDAY IN THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS A COLD FRONT
SOUTH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW DEPENDING ON
TEMPERATURE.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD AT THIS POINT WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER MONTANA. UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL TURN THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE SW OVER
MONTANA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. FORRESTER



&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS MOST OF THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF
VFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

A BAND OF SNOW THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF NORTHEAST MONTANA. KGGW AND KGDV WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE SNOW BAND. EITHER CIGS OR VSBY WILL BE AT MVFR LEVELS
MOST OF THE TIME BUT IFR VSBY IS LIKELY AT TIMES MAINLY AT KOLF
AND KSDY.

AFTER THE SNOW MOVES TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY... LOOK FOR MAINLY
MVFR CIGS WITH LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY WILL BACK TO THE NORTH AROUND
10 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND VEER TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...
DANIELS...DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...WESTERN
ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW



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