Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 040355
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
855 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

UPDATE...
AN UPPER WAVE IS CREATING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT
CUTTING OFF THE SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AND WIND
CHILL ADVISORY LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.    PROTON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LACK OF SNOWCOVER CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY MOVED PAST SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN
A BIT MORE INSTABILITY WITH WINDS. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO BUILT
UP WHERE THE GROUND WAS BARE.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO SW SASK
SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER EVENING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NE
ZONES. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD KEEP WINDS GOING OVERNIGHT AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO -20S AND -30S EXCEPT FOR
PETROLEUM COUNTY. THEREFORE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED
HERE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
BEGINS TO NUDGE TO OUR EAST ALLOWING A MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS TO
CROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THINGS A BIT COOL AGAIN WEDNESDAY BUT A LEE-SIDE TROUGH PUSHES TO
OUR EAST THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR THAT WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN. TFJ


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS IS FINE SHAPE. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO
THE INHERITED FORECAST WITH 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EXPECT THIS ALL TO RESULT
IN A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUBTLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE TIMING/TRACK OF THESE FEATURES WILL BE EASIER
AS GUIDANCE APPROACHES CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE A MILDER WNW FLOW COMING OFF THE
PACIFIC INSTEAD OF THE CURRENT FLOW FROM THE ARCTIC.

MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE WAVE COULD BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE. MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF WANTS
TO TAKE THE WAVE THROUGH WEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA WHILE THE GFS
WANTS TO TAKE THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. AT THIS
POINT... NEITHER SCENARIO BRING MOISTURE TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE. FORRESTER


&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW MVFR CIGS ARE A POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING BUT EXPECT SKY
CONDITIONS TO BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KTS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. MALIAWCO

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...DANIELS...
DAWSON...EASTERN ROOSEVELT...GARFIELD...MCCONE...NORTHERN
PHILLIPS...NORTHERN VALLEY...PRAIRIE...RICHLAND...SHERIDAN...
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS...WESTERN ROOSEVELT...WIBAUX.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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