Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 252040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
240 PM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Tue...

Comfortable early autumn conditions return to northeast Montana to
start the week. A large ridge of high pressure moving through the
western US and central plains regions will dominate the weather
pattern into mid-week and provide northeast Montana with dry and
warm conditions.

Model agreement is excellent. The hottest day will be Tuesday with
highs around 80 degrees.

A colder continental air mass will descend over our area from the
Canadian Rockies region after Tuesday`s hot day. Expect the
associated dry and probably gentle cold front sometime Tuesday


.LONG TERM...Tue night through Sun...

The going forecast is in good shape. The only adjustments worth
noting was to continue to slowly trend up pops for next weekend`s


Previous long term discussion: The very latest 00z guidance
continues to point toward a warmer and largely dry weather pattern
over the CWA for much of the upcoming week. A large upper level
ridge over the area will provide large scale subsidence and
associated height rises, leading to such conditions.

Toward the end of next week and into the weekend do expect the
ridge to shift east towards the central U.S. In turn, flow aloft
will orient from the southwest while an upper trough digs into the
Pacific Northwest. Any embedded shortwaves that track through the
region may produce some shower activity given associated PVA and
therefore dynamic forcing for ascent. Specific timing of
precipitation chances remains a bit of a question mark at this
time however due to uncertainty at larger time scales.




Flight category: VFR.

Synopsis: High pressure aloft will make for clear to mostly clear
conditions today and tonight.

Wind: Northwest at 15 to 25 kts with gusts as high as 30 kts at
KSDY to KGDV through sundown. Winds will become light and
variable overnight.





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