Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 171512
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
912 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Wed...

Morning update: Were to add some high cirrus for this morning and
bring in this mornings low temps into the mornings forecast MinT
grids to readjust the hourly temps for this morning and early
afternoon.

Windy, warm, and dry conditions are in store for the next 24 hrs
as a low pressure system over central Canada and associated low
pressure trough move ESE through Alberta, Saskatchewan, and
Montana. The wind conditions associated with this weather system
are expected this afternoon and evening, then overnight in the
higher terrain.

Previous Forecast: Flat upper ridge will be over Montana today.
This will bring a warm and dry day to the forecast area. A cold
front will be approaching the area from the west today.
Compressional heating ahead of the front along with a thermal
ridge will warm temperatures into the 70s for highs today or about
15 degrees above normal. Southwest winds ahead of the front will
be strong enough at times today for a Lake Wind Advisory for Fort
Peck Lake. With winds expected to be around 20 mph and RH in the
teens this afternoon, will expand Red Flag Warning to include the
western half of the forecast area.

Dry Cold front will move through Northeast Montana this evening
with shortwave trough late tonight. 850 mb wind are expected to
between 50 and 60 knots with the front. However, the evening
timing and low level inversions will limit mixing in most areas.
The exception will be the Little Rocky Mountains of SW Phillips
County whose elevation is around the 850 mb level. Will issue a
High Wind Warning for that area. It will be windy elsewhere
tonight with strong west winds but wind speeds should stay below
warning criteria.

High pressure builds into Eastern Montana on Wednesday which will
diminish the winds. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees cooler
than today which will be near normal for mid October. Forrester


.LONG TERM...Wed night through Tue...

Surface high will move to the east and flat ridge in nearly zonal
flow Wednesday Night will bring mostly clear skies to the
forecast area. Warmer temperatures will return on Thursday with a
thermal ridge building into the area. Highs will be in the 70s. Flow
aloft turns to the southwest on Thursday as an upper trough moves
inland from the Pacific. This will bring a cold front through the
area on Friday with an upper trough moving through Friday Night.
It looks like there may be enough moisture behind the front Friday
Night for a chance of showers.

Saturday will be windy and cooler with gusty west winds as the
upper trough moves to the east.

A shortwave trough and cold front on Sunday will bring strong west
winds to the forecast area. There may be enough moisture for a
slight chance of showers.

Monday and Tuesday looks dry at this point with surface high
pressure and NW flow aloft. Forrester
&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.

SYNOPSIS: A cold front between 03z and 06z this evening will bring
strong west winds and mid and high level clouds.

LLWS: Low level wind shear is likely tonight and Wednesday
morning, but possibly stronger.

WIND: Increasing WSW winds to 15 to 25 kts this afternoon with
gusts 35kts, veering to west and further increasing to 20 to 30
kts tonight with gusts from 35 to 40 kts.
&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for MTZ134>137.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Wednesday
for Southwest Phillips.

Lake Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT Wednesday For Fort Peck Lake
for Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern
Valley...Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow


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