Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 270828
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
430 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Warmer temperatures on the way starting today with
southerly flow on back side of Atlantic ridge and ridge aloft
starting to build into region. The southerly flow will become
onshore southeast and a little breezy at the coast early this
afternoon. High temperatures will climb several degrees above normal
for late April...especially over the interior where maxes will reach
the lower to mid 90s. A relatively early sea breeze onset near the
east coast will hold coastal max temps in the mid/upper 80s. Skies
will be mostly sunny most areas with some scattered clouds across
the southern sections including Treasure coast. Skies become mostly
clear tonight with southerly winds becoming light during the
overnight hours. Lows also several degrees above normal, with mins
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. For comparison...late April average
highs/lows in EC FL are in the lower-mid 80s and lower 60s,
respectively.

Friday-Sunday...Mid level high builds over Florida Friday before
gradually shifting NE out into the Atlantic this weekend, with a
trailing ridge axis extending back SE overhead. At the surface, the
Atlantic high pressure ridge will maintain a SE wind flow across the
region with thermal/dry capping aloft suppressing convection, and
any sea breeze collision likely occurring west of the CWA. While the
ridge will weaken by Sunday night, it will maintain itself long
enough to keep weather conditions dry through the Day 2-4 period,
with the small possibility of some nocturnal showers along the
Treasure Coast both Saturday/Sunday nights. Temps will remain above
normal, with M-U80s along the coast and L90s inland.

Monday-Thursday...A broad troughing pattern will develop over the
central-eastern CONUS, with SW mid level flow and lower heights in
place over Florida through much of next week. A weak surface trough
and associated moisture band will reach north Florida toward sunset
Monday with some increase in moisture out ahead of it. This may lead
to some isolated late afternoon/early evening convection along local
sea/lake breeze boundaries, as surface winds veer more southerly by
late afternoon. Global models continue to differ in the extent of
moisture lingering over central Florida Tuesday, as the GFS/GEM show
much more drying over the northern half of Florida than the ECM
which stalls the moisture band over that area. All of the guidance
agrees on sufficient moisture for a least isolated/low-end scattered
(20-30) POPs Wednesday-Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR next 24 hours. South winds around 10kt will become
SE@10-15kt with occasional gusts to around 20kt near the east coast
this afternoon with east coast sea breeze onset. Winds will diminish
to southerly 5-10kt after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...South winds 10-15kt today will become southeasterly
and a little enhanced near the east coast this afternoon with sea
breeze circulation. Seas generally 2-3 ft near shore and up to 4
feet offshore. May need to add cautionary headlines for the northern
offshore waters tonight for southerly winds picking up to 15-20kt.

Friday-Monday...Atlantic high pressure ridge will strengthen this
weekend and into Monday. Gentle-moderate SSE to SE winds 10-15KT
will freshen to 15-20KT through the forecast period. Seas of 2-4FT
will gradually build to 3-5FT near the coast and 6-7FT well offshore.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southerly winds today will become southeast near the coast and allow
some RH recovery to occur as the boundary moves inland through the
late afternoon. Western interior sections may have a period of a low
RH values 30-40 percent but not anticipating long enough durations
of low RH values to require headlines.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  88  72 /   0  10  10  10
MCO  92  71  94  72 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  89  72  87  76 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  89  72  86  74 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  92  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  90  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  92  71  93  72 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  89  70  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Glitto
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi


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