Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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968
FXUS62 KMLB 241936
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
336 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Evening/night...East coast sea breeze making progress inland with
only isolated showers developing so far. As mentioned in prev
disc, relatively warm mid level temperatures continue to surpress
convection. Still atmospheric moisture is quite a bit higher than
in past days, and expect a breeze collision over the interior
later this afternoon. Short range guidance, HRRR and local ARW
have flip-flopped with subsequent runs as to overall coverage, but
forcing from boundary interaction in proximity to I-4 corridor
should increase coverage in this area early this evening. Main
threat beyond lightning would be some very localized heavy rain
due to slow, ~5mph, south to north shower/storm motion. Expect no
significant fog overnight, and near climo min temperatures
expected.

Sunday...Upper trough over the East CONUS will begin to surpress
persistent ridge over FL. Mid level temperatures will cool ever
so slightly as near surface ridge begins to shift eastward. PWAT
values should climb slightly but remain below 2 inches. Once again
expect most storm coverage over the interior due to sea breeze
interactions, high chance over areas west of I 4 to to chance
along the treasure coast. Guidance indicating likely over the
interior, but with trends will keep below this for now.

Monday-Tuesday...A sharp increase in moisture and cooling aloft
along and ahead of an approaching frontal boundary will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the area.  On Monday have likely POPs
(60-70%) along and north of a line from southwestern Okeechobee
county to central Brevard county where the highest moisture and lift
will be.  Further south have chance POPs around 40-50% and
decreasing toward the Treasure Coast. For Tuesday have likely POPs
(60%) for all areas except high-end chance (50%) for the Treasure
Coast.  The main concerns will be frequent lightning and gusty
winds.  There is also a concern for heavy rainfall with PWATs
forecast to be over 2.00" combined with weak steering flow.

Highs on Monday will be in the upper 80s near the coast to around 90
inland.  Tuesday looks to be a few degrees cooler with mid to upper
80s near the coast and upper 80s inland. Low temperatures will
continue to be in the low to mid 70s.

Long term (prev disc)...
Wednesday-Friday...The surface boundary is expected to wash out over
the area as high pressure builds to our north. Onshore flow will
commence from mid to late week with moisture levels remaining high
enough to support a scattered coverage of showers and storms. Though
the highest coverage of afternoon activity will be across inland
areas, the elevated maritime flow should support onshore-moving
showers from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Inland moving east and west coast sea breeze boundaries and TSRA
outflows will converge near the KISM-MCO-KSFB corridor from 22z-01z
with convection developing and lasting into this evening (to 03z-
04z). Some storms may drift back toward the KDAB vcnty into the
evening hours. VFR conds expected aft 04z with scattered cumulus
developing by mid morning Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Good boating expected with seas continuing in the 2-3 foot range
except up to 4 feet well offshore through the rest of the weekend.
Low amplitude swell will continue with a periods of 8 feet. A weak
frontal boundary will provide a wind shift by the middle of next
week with onshore flow north of feature and some increase in
speeds. Stalled boundary should provide focus for higher coverage
of showers/storms, and a few stronger storms moving offshore from
the mainland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  89  75  87 /  20  50  40  70
MCO  75  91  75  91 /  20  50  40  70
MLB  76  88  76  88 /  10  30  30  50
VRB  76  88  75  88 /  10  20  30  40
LEE  76  91  75  90 /  40  50  40  70
SFB  76  91  75  90 /  30  50  40  70
ORL  76  91  75  91 /  30  50  40  70
FPR  75  88  75  89 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blottman
LONGER TERM....Combs
AVIATION...Volkmer



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