Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
FXUS62 KMLB 241844
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
244 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
...Boating Conditions will Become Hazardous Mid to Late Week...
Tonight...Biggest forecast challenge for the overnight lies across
coastal sections as pressure gradient appears weak enough to allow
drainage flow / offshore breeze to develop and keep temperatures
down a bit, especially from Brevard northward. Forecast is
advertising low temps around 60 most areas save for the barrier
islands where mid 60s are likely. Further to the south, onshore
flow appears a bit stronger and will likely keep temperatures a
few degrees higher. Regardless, with ridge axis weakening and
shifting closer to the area, temperatures for all areas overnight
will be a few degrees warmer than last night.
Northeast winds through 850mb will continue to push marine
stratocumulus onshore, so will maintain partly cloudy skies across
coastal sections across Space and Treasure coasts.
Tuesday-Sunday...High pressure over the Great Lakes will build
south and east which will push a wind surge into the area late on
Tuesday, peaking Wednesday and Wednesday night with increasing
E/NE flow. Windy conditions 20-25 mph expected along the coast mid
week with additional beach erosion possible during the high tide
cycles. Rain chances remain low. Isolated showers should move
across the coast into the Atlantic Tuesday night into late week,
focused along the Treasure coast.
Guidance shows deeper moisture lifting north from the Caribbean
reaching the Bahamas and FL Straits/Keys Friday-Saturday.
But mid level troughing over the eastern CONUS and assocd NW flow
along with weak frontal boundaries pushing into FL should keep the
deepest moisture to our south. Will continue to keep thunder out of
the forecast with only isolated rain chances into the weekend,
primarily in the form of Atlantic showers. High Temperatures will be
near seasonable in the lower 80s but low temperatures will be above
normal in the mid to upper 60s, with lower 70s along the coast.
.AVIATION...VFR prevails with north/northeast winds slackening
overnight. Expect gradual increase in winds a few hours after
sunrise on Tuesday. Marine stratocumulus, with cloud bases
FL040-FL060, to continue to advect onshore, especially KMLB south.
Tonight...High pressure will maintain a light to gentle north to
northeast breeze over the local waters overnight with seas around
2 - 3 feet.
Tue-Thur...Pressure gradient will begin to tighten on Tue with
E/NE winds increasing near 15 knots, 15-20 knots across the
southern waters late in the day. A stronger wind surge from
building high pressure to the north will increase winds Wed to 20
knots, 20-25 knots across the south. So Small Craft Advisories
will be needed. Seas will build to 5 ft across the south on Tue
afternoon, reaching 9 ft in the Gulf Stream Wed night.
Fri-Sat...pressure gradient should relax slightly across the
northern waters as weak ridge axis settles south supporting 10-15
knots but tighter gradient across the southern waters should
support close to 20 knots there. So seas will be slow to subside
and poor to hazardous boating conditions will result.
Increasing onshore flow beginning Tuesday will gradually moisten
the lower levels, with RH values staying above 40 percent Tuesday
and 50 percent from Wednesday onward. It will remain rain-free
through Tuesday with a slight chance for showers returning to the
area, especially coastal areas, from mid to late week with an
increase in E/NE winds.
The St. Johns River at Astor (2.53ft) is expected to remain above
Action Stage (2.50ft) through midweek, then drop below Action
At Geneva/above Lake Harney, the St. Johns River (6.78ft) will
also fall very slowly, and is forecast to remain above Action
Stage (6.50ft) through late week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 59 82 67 81 / 10 0 20 20
MCO 60 83 64 83 / 10 0 10 10
MLB 63 82 70 82 / 10 10 20 20
VRB 65 82 69 82 / 0 10 20 20
LEE 58 83 63 83 / 0 0 10 10
SFB 59 83 65 83 / 10 0 10 10
ORL 61 82 65 82 / 10 0 10 10
FPR 65 82 69 83 / 0 10 20 20