Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 211950
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...First significant cold front of the season will bring cooler
and drier air mid week...

Thru Tonight...Sufficient low level moisture in easterly flow will
produce isolated showers over the Atlc and cross portions of the
coast. The persistent onshore flow will keep temps quite mild near
the coast in the upper 70s with lower 70s over the interior.

Sun...Low level flow will veer southeast as high pressure pushes
seaward into the western atlc. This will pull some higher moisture
northward so rain chances will increase and have maintained 40 to
50 PoPs. The very dry mid levels will take some time to moisten
but a little cooler temps aloft may support isolated storms during
the afternoon across the north. Highs will be in the mid 80s coast
and upper 80s interior which is a few degrees above normal.

Modified Previous Discussion...
Mon-Tue...Mean moisture will gradually increase as the low levels
veer out of the south Monday ahead of an approaching cold front
and pre-frontal trough/band of showers/storms. The front will
reach a position from near the FL Big Bend to a little west of JAX
around 12Z Tuesday, with the leading surface trough pushing
toward the NW CWA. The trough will cross the CWA during the
morning and early afternoon, getting to near Lake Okeechobee by
sunset. Scattered mainly diurnal showers remain in the forecast
Monday, followed by progression of a more organized band of
showers/storms across the CWA from late Monday night through
Tuesday morning.

Magnitude of mid/upper forcing and mean wind fields are still not
very impressive over our area, favoring north Florida and points
northward instead. We still could see some gusty showers and a few
strong storms during that period, however. Lingering showers will
push across the southern CWA late Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

No significant change is temps from previous forecasts...Upper 80s
for Monday...Low-Mid 80s Tuesday with mins ranging from U60s
north of I-4, to the M70s along the coast south of the Cape.

Wednesday-Friday...Turning mainly sunny and dry from mid to late
week save for a possible small lingering shower threat across the
far SE Treasure Coast early Wednesday morning. Maxes in the 70s
areawide Wednesday-Thursday, rebounding to near climo (around 80F)
on Friday. Mins mainly in the 50s Wednesday night, then U50s
inland and north to L-M60s for the Space and Treasure coast on
Thursday night as a light return onshore flow starts to develop.
M-U60s for all but the immediate Space/Treasure Coasts (L70s) on
Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR through the next 24 hours in continued breezy onshore
(east to southeast) flow. Sufficient low level moisture exists
for isolated SHRA over the Atlantic to push across the coast so
will need VC term for most coastal terminals tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue tonight with
east winds 15-20 knots and seas up to 7 feet. Winds begin to veer
out of the SE Sunday then more southerly Monday as high pressure
ridge pushes seaward and a strong cold front approaches from the
west. Pressure gradient will support wind speeds 13-18KT with seas
4FT near shore and 5-6FT well offshore. Some increase in SW-W
winds to near 20KT north of the Cape Tuesday, however offshore
component keeps seas no higher than 4-5FT well offshore. Brief NW
wind surge Tuesday night into Wednesday will push seas up to
around 7FT in the Gulf stream, before they subside by Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River basin remains in Major Flood Stage above
Lake Harney near Geneva and in Moderate Flood Stage near Cocoa,
Deland, and at Astor. Some additional rainfall is forecast Sunday
through Tuesday, which could temporarily arrest the slow decline
in river levels. Dry weather is forecast from Wednesday through
late week, which should allow for the slow recession in water
levels to resume; however, the river will remain above flood
stage for several more weeks.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  86  73  86 /  30  50  30  50
MCO  71  89  72  87 /  10  50  20  40
MLB  78  87  76  86 /  30  50  30  40
VRB  77  87  75  86 /  30  50  30  40
LEE  70  88  72  86 /  10  50  20  40
SFB  71  87  73  87 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  71  87  73  88 /  10  50  20  40
FPR  77  86  75  86 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Johnson/Kelly



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