Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 121357
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...MORNING KXMR SOUNDING STILL SHOWS A VERY
DRY/STABLE PROFILE WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.43 INCHES. EARLY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO/THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE MID-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH
THIS FEATURE AND COUPLED WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ABSENT INTO SATURDAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES INCREASE TODAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPROACHING 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT SW/WSW WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WILL VEER TO WNW/NW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY LATE AND REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH.

PLEASANT DAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M70S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO NEAR CLIMO AND IN THE U40S/L50S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A MAINLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. SWRLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SW/WSW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER TO WNW/NW BEHIND A
COLD FRONT LATE IN THE NIGHT. MODELS HINTING AT PATCHY GROUND FOG
EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO BELIEVE THIS WITH
PRESENT DRY CONDS AND ELEVATED LLVL WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE SOUTH WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES POISED TO MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE ECFL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. PRESENT WSW/SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 15-20 KTS
OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF THE CAPE AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS. WILL CONSIDER
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS NORTH OFFSHORE LEG FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NEXT CWF ISSUANCE (1430Z/0930AM). POST-FRONTAL WINDS (NWRLY)
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH AN SCA IN PLACE
OFFSHORE AND NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BEGINNING (03Z/10PM). SEAS
MAINLY 2-3 FT AREAWIDE...BUT MAY INCREASE TOWARDS 4 FT WELL
OFFSHORE/NORTH MARINE LEG LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND BUILDING TO 4-6 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAPE
NORTHWARD BY 12Z SAT MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...PREVIOUS...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODIFY
TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN. INCREASING W/SWRLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PULL GOMEX MOISTURE ACRS THE STATE...KEEPING
MIN RH VALUES LARGELY ABV 35PCT. INTERIOR COUNTIES ALONG AND S OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR MAY SEE RH DROP TO BTWN 30-35PCT FOR 4-6HRS.
STRONGER WINDS ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WIDE
DISPERSION RANGE...GOOD TO VERY GOOD ALONG AND N OF I-4...BCMG POOR
TO FAIR VCNTY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ERC VALUES IN THE U10S/L20S...BUT
WELL BLO CRITICAL LVLS AS SUSTAINED 20FT WINDS REMAIN BLO 15MPH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/VOLKMER


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