Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...YESTERDAYS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MORE OR LESS WASHED
OUT ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTED BY A 90KT JET TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN BECOMES VERY ILL-DEFINED TODAY AS MID
ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND BRING ANOTHER WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND BRING IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIMIT
SURFACE HEATING AND RAIN/STORM CHANCES.

THE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH SOME JET
SUPPORT AND SECONDARY WEAK FRONT PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 30-40% ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH AROUND 20% SOUTH OF A MELBOURNE TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE LINE. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA LIFTING NORTH AND BRUSHING MARTIN
COUNTY/LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS
THIS SEEMS A LITTLE EARLY AND WILL HOLD OFF ACTIVITY UNTIL MID
MORNING. FURTHER NORTH...TROPICAL MOISTURE NEVER GETS FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO MODIFY THE DRIER AIRMASS BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS BEHIND THE
SURFACE AND UPPER TROUGH TO BRING IN MORE DRY AIR.

RAIN MOVES OUT OF MOST LOCATIONS QUICKLY THIS EVENING FROM NW TO SE
WITH FRONT THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER MARTIN COUNTY AND
ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

WED...A DEEP CLOSED LOW AT 500 MBS WILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE
DELMARVA AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST IN THE
MORNING PUSHES SOUTH JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LVL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS SRN OKEECHOBEE AND
ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S NORTH AND MID 80S SRN
INTERIOR.

WED NIGHT...NNE LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO NE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST AS
THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 50S FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES TO 65-70 ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELONGATE INTO S GA WITH NE TO ENE LOW
LVL FLOW. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY CLOSE
TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS S FL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...00Z GFS INDICATES SFC LOW/TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL
EJECT ENE ACROSS CUBA OR POSSIBLY THE FL STRAITS AND MOVE WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE MAY LIFT TOWARD THE TREASURE
COAST AS THE SFC LOW EJECTS AND WITH NE LOW LVL FLOW EXPECT SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO A FEW ATLC SHOWER BANDS THAT MAY MOVE ONSHORE. WILL
ADVERTISE 20-30 PCT RAIN CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA MOVES ENE.

SAT-TUE...A DIVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM CAROLINAS
SHOULD PICK UP THE SYSTEM OR WEAK SFC LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND MOVE
IT FURTHER OUT TO SEA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SE STATES MOVING
TWD THE MID ATLC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL VEER THE LOW LVL FLOW
FROM NE TO EAST WITH SLOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. EXPECT
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE ATLC TO PUSH ONSHORE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LCL MIFG/BR POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTH FROM S
FLORIDA AFTER 11Z AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF KMLB TO LAKE KISSIMMEE
TODAY WITH NORTHERN AREAS REMAINING DRY. A FEW SHRA LINGERING AFTER
00Z VCNTY KOBE-KSUA OTHERWISE MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER LCL
ATLANTIC.



&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...LIGHT GRADIENT IN BETWEEN FRONTS WILL GENERALLY KEEP
WINDS AROUND 5KTS MOST OF THE DAY...OCCASIONALLY 5-10KTS. PREVAILING
DIRECTION S-SW WITH A ONSHORE COMPONENT RIGHT AT THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN W-NW LATE TONIGHT AS SECONDARY FRONT MOVES IN
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO A SOLID 10KTS. SEAS 2-3FT. SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THIS AFTERNOON.

WED-THU....N TO NE WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6
FT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS INTO MID WEEK. ON FRIDAY NE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS...WITH HIGHER SEAS
CONTINUING TO 4-6 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE CLOSE TO SCEC LEVELS
FOR THE SRN WATER SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS SUNDAY WITH
SEAS TO 5 TO 6 FT OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SE STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  63  81  58 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  84  67  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
VRB  84  67  85  67 /  30  20  10  10
LEE  86  65  84  58 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  66  84  60 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  86  67  85  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  84  66  84  67 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER






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