Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 060942
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
441 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ARCTIC FRONT OOZING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...

TODAY...SHALLOW MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PRODUCE A MUCH DIFFERENT DAY THAN YESTERDAY.  THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS OSCEOLA/SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES
AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY NOON. PATCHY FOG WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF ORLANDO. BEHIND THE FRONT...
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDINESS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD WITH A NORTH
WIND 10-15 MPH AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN. HIGH
TEMPS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING NOW FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD WITH SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY PLATEAUING THIS
AFTN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S BEFORE DROPPING MORE RAPIDLY TOWARDS
SUNSET AS A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS ARRIVES. NORTH LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
BY CONTRAST...FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS SHOULD REACH NEAR 80 BEFORE
THE LOW CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ARCTIC FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE FL
STRAITS WITH A STRONG W/SW FLOW CONTINUING ABOVE THE SHALLOW
NORTHERLY SFC FLOW. THE MODELS TEND TO VEER THE SFC WINDS AROUND
TO NE TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...UNDERESTIMATING THE
INVERTED TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS
MORE NORTHERLY AND RATHER BREEZY ESP AT THE COAST. A LOW OVERCAST
WILL PERSIST OVER ALL OF EC FL WITH A CHANCE FOR ATLC SHOWERS
CROSSING THE COAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. INTERIOR SECTIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS
NORTH LAKE/NW VOLUSIA...BUT HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.



SAT-SUN...THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THEN OSCILLATES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS/CENTER
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PLACING THE REGION IN ROBUST EAST-NORTHEAST
FLOW...HELPING TO ENHANCE COASTAL CONVERGENCE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE 20-40 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BEST RAIN
CHANCES FOCUSING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOCAL
HEAVY COASTAL RAINFALL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF HIGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...THE LINGERING WEAK BOUNDARY...AND THE SHALLOW POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS BEING OVERRUN BY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH...ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

WHILE THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT EXPERIENCED BY
THE TREASURE COAST LAST WEEKEND...DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MORE
LIMITED AS WINDS ALOFT WILL BE VEERED MORE WEST RATHER THAN SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. ALSO THE JET WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN LAST
WEEK...LOSING SOME OF THE ENHANCEMENT THAT WAS IN PLACE THEN.

HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE INFLUENCE BY THE COOL NORTHEAST POST
FRONTAL FLOW AND CONSIDERABLE LOW-MID CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/N BREVARD COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW COMES
OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...AND AROUND 70 ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO
AND BREVARD. TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S AS COOLER AIR NEVER QUITE PENETRATES THAT FAR
SOUTH. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 50S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
4...LOW 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE INTERIOR AND BREVARD...AND
MID-UPPER 60S TREASURE COAST. ONSHORE COMPONENT BY SUN NIGHT WILL
QUICKLY WARM LOWS INTO THE MID 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-THUR...PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT WEEK AS BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL US/FAR WESTERN
GULF...BUT FL LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. MODELS SHOW A FEW
WEAK LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE GULF TO THE
NORTH WHICH MAY BRIEFLY PUSH IT BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT OVERALL
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE PATTERN IN PLACE WITH DIURNAL
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO WARM TEMPS AND SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON FROM
TUES ONWARDS.

HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION WITH LOW-MID 70S VOLUSIA COAST AS BOUNDARY LINGERS AROUND
THIS AREA. HIGHS REMAINDER OF THE WEEK GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S
AS MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPS WITH VOLUSIA COAST A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO WATER TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS (007-015AGL) WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHWARD BEHIND COLD FRONT TRANSITING CENTRAL FL. THE LOW CIGS
WILL PERSIST ALL DAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
NORTH WINDS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS (MLB SOUTH) WILL SEE PATCHY
MVFR/IFR VSBYS IN FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU 12Z WITH LOWERING
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A NW-N WIND SHIFT REACHING SUA BY 15Z.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS CENT FL AND THE ADJACENT ATLC
WATERS WILL REACH SOUTH FL THIS AFTN AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER
THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT. WILL START OUT WITH A CAUTION HEADLINE FOR
THE NORTH AND CENTRAL WATERS FOR A PERIOD OF NORTH WIND 15-20
KNOTS THIS MORNING. A STRONGER SURGE OF NORTH WINDS 20-25 KNOTS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD ATLC WATERS LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...BUILDING SEAS 6-7 FEET NEARSHORE AND UP TO 9 FEET IN THE
GULF STREAM. SO WILL INITIATE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AT
NOON WHICH WILL EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT/SUN...NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL BE ONGOING SAT MORN WITH
WINDS 20-25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC SLOWLY DIMINISHING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS RIDGE BUILDS INTO DEEP SOUTH. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS SOUTH FL...AND GRADIENT WILL
KEEP STRONGER WINDS AROUND 20KTS INTO SUN MORN ACROSS WATERS SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WINDS VEER EAST 10-15KTS OVER ALL THE WATERS
INTO SUN AFTERNOON. LOCAL WIND WAVE COMPONENT AND FRESH SWELL WILL
DRIVE SEAS UP TO 6-9FT ON SAT...SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT BY LATE SUNDAY
AS WIND DIMINISH. AN ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC INTO SAT AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET INTO SUN MORN.

MON-WED...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE SLIDING OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE THROUGH MID WEEK. SEAS 3-4FT...WITH UP TO
5 FT ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  51  67  51 /  20  20  20  10
MCO  70  54  73  56 /  20  10  10  10
MLB  74  63  72  63 /  10  30  30  20
VRB  77  65  75  66 /  10  30  40  30
LEE  65  48  72  53 /  20  10  10   0
SFB  67  52  71  53 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  69  53  72  57 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  77  66  75  66 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EST SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES



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