Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 230233
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
933 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2017

.UPDATE...

...Locally Heavy Rain Across Volusia County Overnight...

Mid level closed low will slide southeast toward the srn FL
peninsula overnight and allow surface low pressure to organize off
the FL east coast into Thursday morning. Deep layer lift will
transition offshore and across nrn areas overnight as low level
onshore flow increases north of Cape Canaveral after midnight. This
will allow high rain chances to continue for the nrn forecast area
through the overnight hours with just a chance of showers across srn
sections as low level flow becomes offshore and mid levels dry
across the srn peninsula. Have made adjustments to lower rain
chances srn areas and kept high rain chances north. Kept a slight
chance for thunder across nrn areas as well with lift from the mid
level low and stronger low level convergence north of the developing
low pressure area. Local heavy rain threat will continue for mainly
nrn Brevard and Volusia counties where showers will stream onshore
from the Atlantic. Lows will range from the mid to upper 50s srn
areas and warmest in the mid 60s along the Volusia coast where
breezy to windy onshore flow will continue along the beaches and the
immediate coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate rain with showers expected to continue for nrn
terminals overnight with heaviest showers moving onshore from the
Atlc from KOMN-KTIX. Mainly MVFR CIGS KFPR northward with brief IFR
VSBYs with +SHRA KDAB vcnty. Have TEMPO conds for lower CIGs 09z-13z
for terminals mainly north of KISM-KTIX. Higher rain chances will
occur north of a KISM-KTIX line on THU with scattered clouds KFPR
southward on Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
NAM and HRRR models are the most aggressive with tight pressure
gradient affecting nrn waters into THU morning north of a developing
low pressure area across the east central FL Atlc waters. GFS
indicates weaker winds with tighter pressure gradient mainly north
of Ormond Beach. Will keep all Advisories and Gale Watch in place
which may need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning across the nrn
waters for the next forecast package. Developing weaker offshore
flow south of the low pressure area will bring improving conditions
into Thursday south of Sebastian Inlet. Winds and Seas will remain
hazardous north of Cape Canaveral into Thursday and Thu night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Melbourne Airport recorded 2.50 inches of rain through 9 pm this
evening. This sets a new record rainfall for todays date. The
previous record was .75 in 1964.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  75  66  80 / 100  60  20  10
MCO  60  77  64  83 /  80  40  10  10
MLB  59  76  67  80 /  80  60  20  10
VRB  58  77  66  81 /  70  40  20  10
LEE  61  77  62  82 /  80  40  10   0
SFB  60  77  64  81 /  90  50  20  10
ORL  60  77  65  82 /  80  40  10  10
FPR  58  77  64  81 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Gale Watch from 4 AM EST Thursday through Thursday afternoon for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-
     Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

Volkmer/Ulrich


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