Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WON OUT BIG TIME TODAY...
INHIBITING SFC HEATING A FEW DEGS MORE THAN FCST WAS ADJUSTED
FOR...AND PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED TO LCLY SCATTERED LIGHT-MDT SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
REGENERATION THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF WEAK
RESIDUAL ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVG...BUT ACTIVITY WON`T BE
TOO INTENSE. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN CWA...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S.

TUE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST/WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES ALONG OR MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHC
50 PCT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND 40 PCT ELSEWHERE.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR LAKE AS WEAK LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. FLOW NOT AS BACKED
AS PREV ADVERTISED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS ALL AREAS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KISM-KTIX....COULD PRODUCE
OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL BECOME
S-SSW WITH ONSHORE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRC. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SEAS 2-4FT...
SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT

THU-SAT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  74  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES


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