Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 271411
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1010 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION..

...Increasing Rip Current Threat Expected Over The Holiday
Weekend...

Discussion...

First few visible satellite images and radar mosaic showing clouds and
showers/storms from Grand Bahama to the Gulf Stream just east of Martin
and Saint Lucie counties were getting ready to come ashore

Daytime cumulus already formed and was moving across Central Florida.

Current conditions matching forecast quite well. Higher shower/storm
coverage from Osceola and Southern Brevard south this afternoon.

.Aviation...Prevailing VFR with isolated to scattered SHRA expected
through the afternoon. Brief tempo MVFR conditions expected in some of
the SHRA, confidence remains low that any single terminal will be
affected.

.Marine...Buoys and CMAN sites recording northeast winds 10 to 15 knots
and 3 to 4 foot seas with 2 to 3 foot northeast swell component.

Current conditions should prevail through the afternoon as the area of
low pressure between North Bahama and Bermuda moves slowly west
northwest this afternoon. Main concern will be increasing period
northeast swell coming into the coastal waters tonight and the weekend

Previous discussion issued 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Florida remains sandwiched between mid and upper level ridging over the
Gulf and a weak closed low centered over the Bahamas. At the surface,
high pressure ridging extends from offshore the Carolinas into the
northern Gulf of Mexico, providing a steady onshore flow across the
forecast area. Meanwhile, low pressure is starting to take shape
between Bermuda and the Bahamas. This system is expected to remain well
east of the area, however, its anticipated track would generate a long
period swell over the local Atlantic waters that will raise the rip
current threat along area beaches as the Memorial Day weekend
approaches.

Today...
The aforementioned low pressure system will move northwestward
today, slowly eroding the Florida portion of the Atlantic ridge
that has helped keep us dry for the past few days. A steady
enhancement in low level moisture (generally 700mb and below) is
advertised today with PWATs starting off around 1" this morning
increasing to 1.5" by this afternoon. This combined with steady
east flow portends a slightly higher coverage of showers,
especially over central and southern areas. Thunder prospects look
low given the deep easterly flow, however, a lightning storm or
two cannot be ruled out well away from the coast as daytime
heating allows for deeper convection over the interior.

Tonight...
Models in good agreement showing low pressure moving north and
west toward the Carolina`s, several hundred miles east of the
state. This will place the forecast area in a relative weakness
and allow the onshore flow to abate as the night progresses.
Isolated to scattered showers over the Atlantic are still
expected to approach coastal areas, though will likely make little
inroads across the interior. Continued weak onshore flow will keep
temperatures warmer (low/mid 70s) along the coast.

Weekend...
Low pressure east of the state will have already passed its
closest point of approach to the region as it draws closer to the
SE coast during Sat. Peripheral effects locally are not expected
to be a classic dry scenario...which is typically associated with
stronger cyclones and sct rain chcs will be maintained each
afternoon. A westerly component to steering level winds along with
boundary formation will favor development of showers and some
storms in the afternoons. temps will be pushing 90 inland with mid
to upr 80s closer to the coast.

Next week...
Departing low pressure to the north of the area looks to take its
time slowly moving away from the SE region. A loosely organized
pressure pattern will remain in place over the peninsula to Gulf
with a setup favoring development of breeze boundaries each
afternoon. Presence of near seasonal precipitable water values
will lead to diurnal slow moving storms similar to what one would
expect with the wet season fully underway. mentionable rain chcs
are anticipated areawide daily through the end of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR with isolated to scattered SHRA expected today as
moisture steadily increases through the afternoon. Onshore/easterly
flow expected to increase a few hours after sunrise. While brief tempo
MVFR conditions expected in some of the SHRA, confidence remains
low that any single terminal will be affected.

&&

.MARINE...

Today...
Steady onshore flow continues through this evening as ridging
remains to the north and low pressure develops well east of the
state. Seas 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 knots this afternoon,
with occasional gusts to near 20 knots. Seas 3-4 feet with
occasional 5 feet well offshore.

Tonight...
Pressure pattern weakens somewhat as low pressure moves closer to
the Carolina`s. Winds expected to steadily decrease to 10 knots
overnight while backing some to the NE. Seas 3-4 feet, occasionally
5 feet well offshore as NE swell from aforementioned low pressure
begins to affect the local waters.

Weekend...
Prime fetch generation area on the north side of developing low
pressure will focus toward the FL E coast early this weekend.
higher winds and seas mainly Sat will diminish Sun as low pressure
moves away from the area.

Next Week...
Favorable conds for navigation are expected through midweek due
to generally light gradient winds no more than 10 to 12 kt and
diminishing seas and swell 2 to 4 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  72  86  68 /  20  20  30  20
MCO  87  70  90  70 /  20  20  40  20
MLB  83  73  85  70 /  30  20  30  30
VRB  84  72  85  69 /  30  20  30  30
LEE  88  70  90  70 /  20  10  30  20
SFB  86  69  89  69 /  20  20  40  20
ORL  87  70  88  71 /  20  20  30  20
FPR  83  71  85  68 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX/DSS...Spratt
FORECASTS.......Wimmer



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