Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 221515
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP S/SW FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA/ERN GOMEX THIS MORNING DUE TO
THE AN H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. THESE WINDS HAVE
SHUNTED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS STALLED OVER THE NRN PENINSULA
BACK INTO THE PANHANDLE...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIRMASS TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KTBW/KMFL
SHOW THE DRIER AIR BLO H80 WITH AVG DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 8-12C
AND AS HIGH AS 20C. RUC ANALYSIS PICKING UP ON THIS DRY AIR...
INDICATING MEAN RH VALUES THRU THE H100-H70 LYR BLO 70PCT...AS LOW
AS 55PCT IN THE H100-H85 LYR OVER THE TREASURE COAST.

ALOFT...A 100-120KT H30-H20 JET STREAK LIFTING ACRS THE DEEP
SOUTH/MID ATLC REGION HAS PULLED ALMOST ALL OF THE LCL DYNAMIC
FORCING NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. VORTICITY IS ALMOST NONEXISTENT THRU
THE H85-H30 LYR. A THIN BAND OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE OVER THE ERN
GOMEX HAS INDUCED A LCL AREA OF CONVECTION...BUT THE MEAN FLOW WILL
CARRY ANY PRECIP ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. INDEED...BOTH
HRRR/LCL WRF MODELS GENERATE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE CWA...AND
ALL OF IT IN THE VCNTY OF I-4.

DESPITE BETTER INSOLATION OVER THE S...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LVL
DRY AIR AND WEAK DYNAMIC FORCING WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF ANY
ORGANIZED PRECIP OVER THE SRN CWA...AND ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
N. WILL SHAVE POPS BACK TO CHC/SLGT CHC FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTY
NWD...REMOVING TSRAS IN THE PROCESS. FROM INDIAN RIVER/OKEECHOBEE
SWD...BLO MENTIONABLE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 23/12Z

SFC WNDS:
THRU 23/00Z...S/SW 8-12KTS. AFT 23/12Z...S/SW 3-6KTS.

VSBYS/WX:
THRU 23/06Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS N OF KVRB-KLAL...INCRSG TO CHC N
OF KTIX-KISM. AFT 23/06Z...AREAS MVFR BR ALL SITES...LCL LIFR FG
VCNTY KVRB/KFPR/KLEE.

CIGS/WX:
THRU 23/00Z...BTWN FL080-100 WITH PDS MVFR BTWN FL020-030 IN PASSING
SHRAS. BTWN 23/00Z-23/06Z...BCMG MVFR BTWN FL015-025 IN -RA. AFT
23/06Z...WDSPRD IFR BTWN FL006-009 WITH AREAS LIFR BLO FL004.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK SFC RIDGE OVER THE FL STRAITS WILL COMBINE WITH AN OPEN FRONTAL
TROF OVER N FL TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC THIS AFTN. DESPITE THE WEAK SFC/BNDRY LYR FLOW...DATA BUOYS
HAVE MEASURED A SMALL BUT DISCERNIBLE INCREASE IN SEAS OVER THE PAST
24HRS DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A 2-3FT ERLY SWELL. WARM FRONT HAS
LIFTED WELL N OF FLAGLER BEACH AND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF REVERSING
COURSE...IN ITS WAKE A LCL POCKET OF DRY AIR WILL MOVE UP FROM THE S
PENINSULA AND QUASH RAIN CHANCES S OF THE CAPE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN AS THE HI PRES RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
HOLDS THE LINE. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI





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