Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 300057
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL MAKE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AND UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP
FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

TUE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST
WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING
WITH GRADUAL THINNING SKIES. INTERESTING THAT THE WRFARW2 SUGGESTS A
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM MID MORNING-EARLY AFTN TUE TRAVERSING THE
EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. NOT SURE I BELIEVE THE COVERAGE IT
SUGGESTS BUT IT COULD BE ANOTHER EARLY CONVECTIVE START TO THE DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL WEAKER ON TUE WITH THE ECSB FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTN. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-TUE...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. MAINLY SW/WSW WINDS FORECAST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO MAINLY 5-10 KTS ON TUE. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TUE AFTN AT LEAST FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST



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