Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301405
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A DEEP HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL
MEANDER TOWARD BERMUDA AS A DVLPG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS RIDES OVER ITS NRN FLANK. TRAILING RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND
BACK TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR...PLACING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA UNDER A
SUBSIDING AIRMASS WITH LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE. MORNING SOUNDINGS
MEASURED PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.00"-1.25" RANGE STATEWIDE WITH A
NOTEWORTHY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H80-H60 LYR.

S/SE WINDS 10-15KTS THRU THE H100-H90 LYR...BACKING OT THE E/NE ARND
10KTS THRU THE H90-H70LYR. EAST COAST WILL FORM BY EARLY AFTN...BUT
WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW/MID LVL ERLY WIND
COMPONENT. LATEST RAP40 ANALYSIS INDICATES NO SIG MID LYR VORT MAXES
IN THE VCNTY...WHILE H30-H20 ISOTACHS REVEAL A JET CORE DIGGING OVER
CUBA AND THE ERN GOMEX THAT PLACES THE FL PENINSULA UNDER ITS
DESCENDING LEFT ENTRANCE QUAD. NOT SURPRISINGLY...H85-H30 OMEGA AND
H30-H20 DIVERGENCE FIELDS INDICATE A SINKING AIRMASS.

GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LVL MOISTURE...MID LVL VERTICAL MOTION...AND A
DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY.
INDEED...BOTH THE THE 2KM WRF AND THE HRRR MODELS INDICATE ONLY
ISOLD SHRAS BTWN 18Z-22Z WEST OF A LAKE KISSIMMEE/LAKE GEORGE LINE
WITH EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGER OCCURRING W OF LAKE COUNTY
ARND SUNSET. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALNG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...EXCLUDING COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY AS THE
SEA BREEZE SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND BEFORE ANY CONVECTION DVLPS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVG...REACHING THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ADVECT SOME
VERY HIGH (CIRRUS) CLOUDS WHICH MAY FILTER THE SUNSHINE FROM TIME TO
TIME. NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS MRNG.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 31/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 30/16Z...S/SE 5-9KTS. BTWN 30/16Z-30/18Z...BCMG E/SE
10-14KTS WITH OCNL G18-22KTS. BTWN 01/00Z-01/03Z...BCMG SE 4-8KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: PREVAILING VFR...VERY HI CIGS BTWN FL350-400. THRU
30/18Z...LCL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030 COASTAL SITES. BTWN 30/18Z-
30/24Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS W OF KISM-KSFB-KOMN.

&&

.MARINE...
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE DRAPED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA GENERATES A LIGHT TO GENTLE SERLY BREEZE OVER THE LCL
ATLC...BCMG E/SE ARND 15KTS NEAR THE COAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE. NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE MRNG UPDATE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER



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