Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 140531
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1131 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. FOCUS WAS ON WINTER
WEATHER MOVING IN TOMORROW. UPDATED WSW AND MOVED UP START TIME TO
15Z FOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 DUE TO MODELS INDICATING AN EARLIER
ONSET OF PRECIP DESPITE PRETTY DRY LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF HOW FAST THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS MOVE IN.
SREF PLUMES ARE INDICATED A RATHER QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AND LIMITS SNOW TOTALS. ON THE OTHER HAND THE 00Z NAM HAS
COME IN COLDER THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AND TRACKS HEAVIER PRECIP
ACROSS THE I-4O CORRIDOR. 00Z NAM ALSO HOLDS SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR
THIS AREA. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NORTHERN
PLATEAU FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. -SHSN EXPECTED TO REACH AIRPORTS IN
THE 14-18Z TIMEFRAME AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PL POSSIBLY MIXING IN BEFORE CHANGING TO -RA SUNDAY EVENING.
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
CLAY-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-DE KALB-FENTRESS-JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-SMITH-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-WHITE-WILSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
CHEATHAM-DICKSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-STEWART.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................10/REAGAN


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