Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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592
FXUS64 KOHX 151050
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
450 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low clouds are still covering a large portion of Middle Tennessee
in the wake of last evening`s dry fropa. Indications are that the
clouds will finally erode by 18Z. Of course, we also thought this
would happen yesterday. At any rate, high pressure remains to our
west with a northerly flow still advecting cold air into the mid
state. Surface ridge won`t shift east of Middle Tennessee until
this evening, so today`s temperatures will be similar to
yesterday`s. But with return flow setting up overnight, Saturday
will be considerably warmer. Look for the upper flow to turn
sharply southwestward after 00Z Sunday and bring a shortwave out
of the Gulf Coast toward Middle Tennessee. So Sunday still appears
to be rainy, but the onset of precipitation should hold off until
after 12Z most areas, so we`re expecting liquid only at this point.
The shortwave itself will make a fast exist, but enough lingering
moisture will stay around to keep low POP`s in the forecast until
a stronger cold front pushes through Monday night and finally
dries us out. Don`t expect much cold advection behind this front,
as the flow turns northerly only briefly (if at all). In fact,
we`ll start to see appreciative return flow by Wednesday, so
temperatures next week will be considerably warmer than this week.
Looking ahead, both the GFS and ECMWF are depicting a highly-
amplified, progressive system moving across Middle Tennessee next
Thursday night and early Friday. If this proves the case,
temperatures will drop considerably next weekend as we head into
Christmas.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Persistent MVFR CSV to low VFR ceilings
remaining terminals should generally erode east to west
15/16Z-15/19Z. Per rapidly building upper level dry nwly flow
aloft pattern along with building sfc ridging influences, VFR/SKC
conditions should prevail thru 16/12Z. Light winds will back
slowly from the northwest to the southwest thru 16/12Z also.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......08
AVIATION........31



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