Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 220148
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
748 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER. RADAR SHOWING SOME REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES BUT THE INTEGRATED LIQUID NOT IN SUPPORT OF ANY
RAINFALL.

FOR THE UPDATE...WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. WILL ALSO LOWER MIN TEMPS BY 2 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP SOME OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENT TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S PLATEAU. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION 00Z DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MAINTAIN A SURGE OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OTW...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS DYNAMICS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MISSING FROM THE EQUATION. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WAS PROVIDING A DECENT DAY ACROSS
MID TN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
ADVANCING FROM THE WEST...TO THE TN RIVER AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE (NOTE THE SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS
UNDER THE HIGH) HAS BEEN EATING AWAY AT THE CLOUDS...KEEPING MOST
OF THE MID STATE SUNNY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WEST HALF...BUT
THE EAST HALF WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 30S. A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT RULED OUT FOR OUR VERY FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES.

FOR SATURDAY...SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GRADUALLY WARMER
AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR. MORE CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...BUT STILL SOME SUN...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

BIG CHANGES COME IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY.THIS WILL CAUSE A SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE
TO SURGE INTO MID TN. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
THE PEAK COVERAGE OF RAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
SEVERE WX...AND SPC SHOWS ALL OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL BE COMMON.
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO SURGE NORTHWARD...WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW WILL BE HEADING OFF INTO CANADA...AND A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS FRONT...AND THE REST OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE COLDER THAN NORMAL. WE ARE POSTING DRY WX IN THE FORECAST...BUT
A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE THE PRECIP SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGEST OF THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME SNOW FLURRIES.
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE POPS AT THIS TIME.
THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY LOOK QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      38  61  48  64 /  05  05  30 100
CLARKSVILLE    37  61  47  64 /  20  10  20 100
CROSSVILLE     32  56  43  61 /   0   0  30 100
COLUMBIA       37  62  49  64 /  05  05  40 100
LAWRENCEBURG   38  61  49  65 /  05  05  50 100
WAVERLY        39  61  49  64 /  20  10  40 100

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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