Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 020234
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
834 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID STATE THIS EVENING. OHX BASE
VELOCITY SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST TO NEAR A WAVERLY TO
OAK GROVE LINE. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTHEASTWARD...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN ZONES...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN PLACES. CURRENT ROAD TEMPERATURES PER
KYDOT ARE IN THE MID 40S PER KYDOT...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ICY
ROAD ISSUES EXCEPT ON PERHAPS A COUPLE OF SECONDARY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND COULD ALSO SEE A BIT OF ICE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. WILL REISSUE THE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO MID WEEK...LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 18Z
NAM...18Z GFS...12Z ECMWF...21Z SREF AND WPC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
MAJOR AND POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE MID
STATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWS AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT FOR EARLY MARCH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE DURING THE DAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING AREAS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND COULD
EASILY CHANGE...AS OF NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH OF THE
CWA COULD GO THROUGH ALL PHASES OF PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW AS THE INITIALLY SHALLOW COLD AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT GRADUALLY DEEPENS. MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIFFERENT
ON TIMING WITH FRONT...WITH GFS FASTEST AND NAM SLOWEST...AND THIS
ALONG WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT AT 700MB WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH AND
WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP ENDS UP PREVAILING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
ATTM...SEVERAL INCHES OF SLEET AND/OR SNOW CERTAINLY APPEAR
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED!

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST

AVIATION...
..POOR FLYING WEATHER OVERNGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...
LOW IFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z THEN IMPROVING AT CLARKSVILLE
AND NASHVILLE WITH CROSSVILLE GOING MVFR AFTER 18Z MONDAY. WIND
GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHERLY AS SURFACE FRONT WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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