Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 261159
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
659 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
Upper trough axis and associated cold front are currently crossing
the MS River Valley early this morning, and should enter the mid
state later this morning. Models have again backed off on precip
amounts, especially for the I-65 corridor, so trended the grids in
that direction for today. Also trended high temperatures a bit
cooler today, but that will depend on the speed of the front and
the amount of cloud cover. The southeastern two thirds of the mid
state should see highs around 80 or in the low 80s, while the
northwest half will likely see highs in the 70s. Per forecasted
wind fields, the cold front looks to be through most of the mid
state by the early afternoon, so temperatures should hold at that
point and begin to fall for the remainder of the afternoon. By the
evening, precip chances look to be confined to the Plateau region
and skies will clear pretty rapidly from northwest to southeast.
The northwest half of the area looks to see partly cloudy to clear
skies before sunset, so we will see if the speed of the cold front
holds up per model guidance.
There looks to be some lingering chances for light showers on the
Plateau during the early overnight hours, so kept in mention for
now. Otherwise, Tuesday looks to be quite dry with highs in the
70s. As mentioned in yesterday`s discussion, the ECMWF had the
upper trough close off and progress southward towards the mid
state and brought precip to the area towards the end of the week.
With the latest ECMWF solution, the upper closed low is further to
the west, and the GFS is also bringing a closed low further to the
west than yesterday`s solution. Therefore put in mention of
showers Wednesday afternoon through the day Friday, but mainly for
areas east of I-65. Since it looks like the closed low is a more
likely solution, temperatures also dropped slightly from the
previous forecast as well. With another reinforcing shot of cold
air from the upper low, highs on Thursday look to only hit the low
70s. 850mb temps are around 6C to 8C, so for the first time this
fall we look to have below average high temperatures Thursday and
even on Friday.
Next weekend looks to be dry as the upper low moves towards the
northeast and out of the region. Both the GFS and ECMWF are on
board with this solution, and this will help the mid state warm up
a bit. Highs this weekend will climb into the upper 70s and around
80 by Sunday. With no strong upper level features, it looks like
the remainder of the forecast from late Friday onward will be dry,
with temperatures climbing back to seasonal averages.
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Cold front has passed CKV and is nearing BNA at present, with
front expected to reach CSV around midday. MVFR cigs anticipated
behind the boundary for a few hours before rising to VFR, along
with northwest winds around 10 knots. Scattered showers and maybe
a thunderstorm or two continue behind the front this morning, and
anticipate -SHRA at CKV with VCSH at BNA/CSV later this