Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 160844
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
344 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT PLATEAU...
FROST ADVISORY ELSEWHERE...WX PATTERN UPCOMING WEEKEND...TEMPS.

WITH THIS BEING APRIL...AND SELY SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...AND WITH CONTINUED SFC RIDGING INFLUENCES...
EXPECT A RATHER QUICK REBOUND FROM WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S PLATEAU TO MAINLY LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE...AND THUS WILL BE
GOING CLOSE TO GFS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES.

QUANDARIES ABOUND WHEN IT COMES TO TONIGHT AND THE FROST AND OR
FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID STATE. COMPLICATING FACTORS ARE
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE DEVELOPING IN THE 5 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE
NASHVILLE METRO AREA AND AREAS W ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
MOVING INTO AT LEAST THE WRN HALF OF THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...JUST CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FROST
FOR LOW LYING LOCATIONS AROUND THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA AND AREAS
OF FROST FOR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. DO HAVE THE OPTION OF
ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY FOR PATCHY FROST...AND WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
THERE WILL BE ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...WILL JUST GO
AHEAD AN ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION...BELIEVE FREEZING
TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
ELEVATED VALLEYS...AND THUS WILL BE ISSUING A FREEZE WARNING FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. WITH WINDS ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
A LITTLE STRONGER AND WITH MORE CONSENSUS IN HIGH LEVEL OPAQUE
CLOUD COVERAGE...BELIEVE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL. THUS...WITH ALL THIS
SAID...BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE AROUND A 6 HR WINDOW IN WHICH
THIS CAN OCCUR...AND WILL BE ISSUING THE TEXT OF THE FROST
ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER PRESS TIME.

LOOK FOR SELY TO SLY SFC FLOW TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ESTABLISHED
ON THU AS MID STATE IN BROAD WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO OUR W STRETCHING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. EXPECTING GENERALLY A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS TO WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECT THE INCREASING CLOUDINESS TREND TO
CONTINUE INTO THU NIGHT...LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS WRN HALF TOWARD SUNRISE. ALSO CUT BACK THE CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS ON FRI AS MODELS SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE IN SOLUTIONS
WITH GFS/EURO KEEPING RAIN MAINLY TO OUR N AND S WITH NAM KEEPING IT
ACROSS ERN PORTIONS. TEMPS WILL GET BACK CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMAL
VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...MID 60S PLATEAU.

DO NOT SEE MUCH OF A REASON TO DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING FROM FRI NIGHT THRU TUE TIME FRAME...WITH MODELS SHOWING
SOME DISAGREEMENTS HERE OR THERE...BUT OVERALL...BEST RAIN CHANCES
STILL LOOK TO BE SUN NIGHT LASTING POSSIBLY IN TUE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...AND BY MID WEEK...BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      63  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
CLARKSVILLE    61  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
CROSSVILLE     58  30  64  39 /   0   0   0  05
COLUMBIA       63  38  68  48 /   0   0   0  10
LAWRENCEBURG   63  37  67  49 /   0   0   0  20
WAVERLY        62  38  68  47 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-
023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ011-032>034-
065-066-078>080.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TNZ007>010-
026>031-059-061>064-075-077.

&&

$$
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