Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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183
FXUS64 KOHX 010455
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1155 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS...COVERAGE OF RAIN HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS THAT REMAINED THIS AFTERNOON WERE LIGHT...AND
WERE LOCATED OVER OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. SKIES REMAINED
OVERCAST...AND THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST. MID AFTERNOON READINGS WERE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

FOR TONIGHT...WE WILL KEEP HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST...BUT DETAILS
ABOUT COVERAGE AND TIMING ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN
SUPPORTS MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL SPIN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES MOVE FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND
MODELS ARE GENERATING POCKETS OF RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT
REALLY ANY SINGLE FORCING MECHANISM TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE
AND WHEN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. A COLD FRONT
WILL TRAIL FROM THE SURFACE LOW...AND WILL APPROACH MID TN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE WILL BE DECREASING ON
SUNDAY...AND FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE FRONT
APPROACHES...SO WE CAN EXPECT LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW GREATER HEATING...AND GREATER INSTABILITY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AREA WIDE WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN
WITH SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ANOTHER
WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA.

A TRANSITION PERIOD WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THURSDAY AS A SHOT OF COOL
AIR COMES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. LATE WEEK LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
40S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. AFTER COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AGAIN...WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING EAST...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
START GRADUALLY CLIMBING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH BNA AND CSV EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE AT CKV OVERNIGHT WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AT TIMES...WITH VIS BOUNCING BETWEEN
IFR/LIFR. AFTER SUNRISE ALL THREE SITES WILL SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EVENING...AS MODELS INDICATE A
FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL PUSH THROUGH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........05
LONG TERM..................99



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