Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 051125
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
625 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.AVIATION UPDATE...

12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

PATCHY FOG WILL BRING MVFR/IFR VIS TO AREA AIRPORTS FOR THE FIRST
1-2 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WIDELY
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA ALSO ANTICIPATED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BUT CHANCE
OF IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS IS TOO REMOTE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SIMILAR STORY EARLY THIS MORNING AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS WITH PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS AS WELL...AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL NOT
RULE OUT CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE ON THE
PLATEAU WITH BETTER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW AS WELL AS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP SPREAD FURTHER WEST AS THE
UPPER LOW SLIDES WESTWARD. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN ON THE PLATEAU
BUT SCHC POPS STILL EXTEND PAST THE I65 CORRIDOR. FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE PLATEAU FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.

TIMING FOR THE MID TO END OF THE WEEK SYSTEM IS STILL UP IN THE
AIR...BUT MODELS ARE SLOWLY TRYING TO LINE UP. KEPT IN CHC POPS
FROM WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY ALL THE WAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION...AND MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO KICK OFF BEFORE THE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT ARRIVE. THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLIER
THAN THE GFS...WITH ALMOST A 24 HOUR LAG. THE ECMWF HAS IT LATE ON
THURSDAY...AND THE GFS LATE ON FRIDAY. DELAY IN FROPA OBVIOUSLY
HAS DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR QPF BETWEEN MODELS AS THE ECMWF CLEARS
OUT THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THE GFS STILL HAS SOME
POSTFRONTAL PRECIP IN PLACE. IF THE GFS CATCHES UP TO THE ECMWF
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL BE QUITE COOL
COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST WEEK. 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 12C-14C...AND CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S NEXT SATURDAY.

AVIATION UPDATE...
06Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
DEVELOP...SO INCLUDING TEMPO BR FOR CKV AND CSV. OTHERWISE...SCT
CU AND LIGHT E WINDS FOR SATURDAY. ISOLD TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...BUT COVERAGE MUCH TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      95  71  91  70 /  10  10  20  10
CLARKSVILLE    94  68  92  68 /  10   0  10  10
CROSSVILLE     87  67  82  66 /  30  20  30  10
COLUMBIA       93  69  91  68 /  10  10  20  10
LAWRENCEBURG   91  69  89  68 /  10  10  20  10
WAVERLY        94  69  91  69 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

55


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