Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 050150
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
950 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TONIGHT... THEN PASS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NW. HOWEVER... THE RELATIVELY DRY AND VERY STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR
RESIDING OVER OUR REGION (EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE) WILL BE HARD TO
OVERCOME. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOW CHANCES OF PRECIP
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP AROUND 08Z. LIGHTNING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE... WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
THE POPS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PIEDMONT. OTHERWISE... INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S. - DND

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM WEDNESDAY...

THU/THU NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NC
DRYING THE DAY THU. AS IS TYPICAL IN SUCH A SETUP...EXPECT SCT TO
NUMEROUS CONVECTION AS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT AID DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN `BOUTS` ATTENDANT
POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. ANY
UPDRAFT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN A LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL /COOLING ALOFT/.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NC THU AFTERNOON...EXCEPT IN THE NE COASTAL
PLAIN WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR (OR 0-8 KM) VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...ESP IF WELL TIMED DPVA ROTATES INTO THAT REGION
DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SUCH ACTIVITY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE (1-2") HAIL...THOUGH THE THREAT WOULD BE SPORATIC-
TEMPORALLY LIMITED TO THE FAR NE COASTAL PLAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN
OUTSIDE OF CENTRAL NC IN FAR NORTHEAST NC AND SOUTHEAST VA. EXPECT
AREAS OF CONVECTION TO WRAP SOUTHWARD BACK INTO CENTRAL NC OVERNIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS NE TOWARD THE DELMARVA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NC FROM VA. HIGHS WILL BE MODULATED BY
CONVECTION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NW TO LOW/MID 60S SE. LOWS
THU NIGHT ALSO MODULATED BY CONVECTION...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
WEST TO NEAR 50F EAST. -VINCENT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...

COOL POOL ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH LAPSE RATES
GREATER THAN 6C/KM...BUT THUNDER WILL BE DAMPENED BY WEAK SHEAR
PROFILE AND MINIMAL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. EXPECT WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND STREAM SOUTH INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS
THE CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NORTH...WITH COVERAGE AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE COOL WITH CLOUD COVERAGE AND COLD
RAIN...WILL STALL IN THE MID 60S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL END IN THE FAR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT WITH MINS AROUND
50 SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LARGER UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXITING CUTOFF LOW LINGERING IN THE EAST INTO AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL BENEFIT FROM A LITTLE MORE SUN AND RISING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S. A DRY BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE
SAGGING SOUTH ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NC/VA BORDER AS IT ALIGNS PARALLEL TO THE PREVAILING FLOW.
A FEW SHOWERS COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PAINT THEM IN YET. CLOUDINESS
WILL BE THE MAJOR IMPACT AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN BOOSTING
HIGHS TO NEAR 80.

THE FRONT WILL BE EDGED NORTH OF THE AREA AS WE TRANSITION TO A
RETURN FLOW REGIME WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ASSISTING A MILD WARMING
TREND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS AROUND 80 MONDAY WILL WARM TO
THE LOW AND MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 09Z-12Z AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES.
THESE CIGS MAY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE DURING THURSDAY. VSBYS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY BE LOWERED TO MVFR BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM
KINT/KGSO EASTWARD TO KRDU TO KRWI LATE TONIGHT ONWARD.

LOOKING AHEAD:

IFR TO MVFR CIGS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
WITH MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FROM
KRDU TO KRWI AND NORTHEAST INTO VA. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED SAT-SUN.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...DND/BADGETT
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BADGETT



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