Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 311335
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
935 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST. ASIDE FROM A WEAK WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MIDWEEK...GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA AS DEEP
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 AM MONDAY...

EARLIER UPDATE TARGETED THE CENTRAL/ERN CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL) FOR THE ONGOING TROPICAL RAINFALL. THESE HIGH
POPS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CROSSED THE STATE EARLIER THIS MORNING HEADS
NNE INTO VA. RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN COMMON...
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING AND RISING
CREEKS BUT UNDER FLOODING THRESHOLDS... AND THIS RAIN SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE BENEFICIAL FOR MOST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRYING
OVER THE WRN CWA... SO WHILE A FEW WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS NW OF THE TRIANGLE... THESE SHOULD GENERATE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. EASTERN SECTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-
95 MAY SEE A SLOWER TAPERING OF THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN...
GIVEN THAT ANOTHER WAVE NOW APPROACHING SAVANNAH GA WILL BE TRACKING
TO THE N OR NNE... SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR... AND THIS
TREND IS NOTED WELL IN THE RECENT RAP RUNS. POPS WILL START OUT
RANGING FROM ISOLATED AT MOST WEST TO CATEGORICAL EAST... TRENDING
DOWNWARD WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. ANY INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE MARGINAL... WITH MUCAPE MOSTLY HOLDING AT OR BELOW 1000
J/KG... SO WILL KEEP ANY THUNDER MENTION AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT
MOST. TEMPS ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE GREATLY LIMITED INSOLATION IN
THE EAST... SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S WEST AND NEAR 80 TO
LOWER 80S EAST... WITH THESE EASTERN HIGHS NOT BEING REACHED UNTIL
VERY LATE IN THE DAY. -GIH

LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM MONDAY...

A WEAK/NONDESCRIPT SFC PATTERN WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC RETROGRADES WESTWARD.
OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING ATOP A SEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS...
FORCING MECHANISM IS LACKING WITH ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION AT
BEST.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MIDWEEK TO ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WRT WHAT HAPPENS TO IT. THE LATEST ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE S/W SHIFTING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON... WITH BRIEF S/W RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE AREA BEFORE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE CAROLINAS BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MEANWHILE...
THE LATEST GFS IS SLOWER MOVING THE INITIAL S/W DISTURBANCE THROUGH
THE AREA ON THURSDAY... LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE S/W IS
THEN EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF INTO A MID LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS A STRONG 595 DECAMETER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL NC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN... THE LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND NOT IN
THE DIRECTION OF CENTRAL. AT THE SURFACE... WE SHOULD SEE SOME TYPE
OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE INITIAL S/W
DISTURBANCE... WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING/EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL NC FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND. THUS... AT
THIS TIME... WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY LOW... SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE... GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT
WILL GENERALLY BE MEAN RIDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
DURING THIS TIME (WITH THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES/WEAK CLOSED LOWS).
HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME... THEN NEAR NORMAL TO POSSIBLY SLIGHT
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 657 AM MONDAY...

DAMPENING MID-LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THE
AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO EAST WITH ASSOCIATED IFR TO MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES.

AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

EASTERN TERMINALS COULD SEE WIDESPREAD STRATUS/FOG MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION...EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KS
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/CBL
SHORT TERM...CBL
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...CBL



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