Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 270546
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1245 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS... COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 PM THURSDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLACK ICE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM
FRIDAY...

THE FORMATION OF BLACK ICE AND THE REFREEZING OF THE SNOW AND ICE
PACK WERE WELL UNDERWAY AT MID EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. THIS IS
THE REGION WHERE THE SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY NEAR SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
FELL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S QUICKLY FROM THE MID 30S JUST A FEW
HOURS BEFORE. THERE WAS ALREADY PLENTY OF BLACK ICE THROUGHOUT THE
PARKING AREAS HERE AT THE RALEIGH NWS OFFICE AT THE NCSU CAMPUS. IN
ADDITION... THE REMAINING SNOW SOLIDIFIED/REFROZE QUICKLY BETWEEN
800 AND 900 PM. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HAZARD TO GO ALONG WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY
IN EFFECT.

THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATED ANOTHER DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS HAD
SPREAD ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE TRIAD... WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES WARMER AT WINSTON-SALEM THAN OVER THE CLEAR AREA TO
THE EAST AT ROXBORO. THERE WERE ALSO CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN THE FAST
JUST ALOFT WHICH APPEAR ON TARGET TO QUICKLY MOVE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THEN... ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WAS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS. THEREFORE... A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS IS ANTICIPATED
WITH MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 20S IN GENERAL. MORE UPPER 20S IF CLOUDS
PREVAIL... AND SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE PIEDMONT WHERE THE MOST
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

AREAS OF FOG APPEAR LIKELY.... BUT PLACEMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IS MADE MORE DIFFICULT BY THE EXPECTED VARIABLY BOUTS OF CLOUDINESS.
WE MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT... WITH THE
MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES WHERE THE CURRENT BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED
NEARLY SATURATED BY THE HEAVY QPF FROM THE WINTER STORM. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.

BE EXTRA CAREFUL TONIGHT DUE TO THE ICE AND FOG HAZARDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS TO START.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB TO AROUND FREEZING BY 10AM ALTHOUGH
THIS COULD BE DELAYED IF CLOUD COVER HOLDS LONGER OR LOWS TONIGHT
BOTTOM OUT EVEN FURTHER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S. -BLAES

1044 HPA HIGH BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL BE RACING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE IN FAST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
LATEST GFS AND NMM SHOW SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND A FLURRY
INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST LOOKS POSSIBLE...BUT MOISTURE WILL VERY
LIMITED (PW ~0.25 IN) AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FORECAST OVERNIGHT. COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE AND REINFORCED CAA
OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINS IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST...
WITH MOSTLY LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH DAMMING SETTLED IN PLACE SATURDAY
WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S...FROM
LOW 30S NORTHEAST UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS...TO NEAR 40 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER IF SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE BETTER RADIATION...WITH TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM THURSDAY...

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION TIMING AS SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIAL COLD AIR DAMMING
SUNDAY WILL BE NUDGED OFFSHORE BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT SPREADING
INTO THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 40S. MINS WILL BE MODERATING A BIT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVIER
CLOUDINESS AND SCOURING OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPING MINS IN THE
30S.

THE AIRMASS SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
MILDER...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR YET ANOTHER
TRANSITION TO A DAMMING SCENARIO BY TUESDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT SAGS
SOUTH ON MONDAY...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WHICH WOULD DAMPEN/DELAY
THE POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO MID WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN A WARMUP INTO THE
50S PRE-FROPA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH RAIN WHICH WOULD PRODUCE AN IN-
SITU COOLOFF ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S WEST TO MID 50S
EAST. PROBABILITY OF RAIN WILL REMAIN AT LEAST IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TIMING IS NOT
VERY CERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WARMING US INTO THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS DELAYED TIL LATE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1245 AM FRIDAY...

MAIN AVIATION HAZARD THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BE IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY
DUE TO FREEZING FOG. THE PROBABILITY OF LIFR VISIBILITY IS HIGHEST
IN THE COASTAL LAIN...SANDHILLS AND EASTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING IN
VICINITY OF KRWI...KFAY...AND KRDU. VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE
BETWEEN 12Z-14Z.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR/LOW END VFR CEILINGS
AROUND MID DAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SKIRTS ACROSS THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL GO FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE
EARLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR 10KTS BY LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT A
WARMER MOIST AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY OF MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH PATCHES OF RAIN. THE ADVERSE
AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-
073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BLAES/MLM
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...WSS



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