Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 161905
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
305 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY... AND HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE ERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE INCOMING COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST NW OF NC. WE`RE ALREADY
STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION OVER THE WRN HALF OF NC... WHERE SURFACE
CAPE HAS RISEN TO 1000-2000 J/KG... ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS
MARGINAL AT AROUND 20 KTS. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING INTO
THE TN VALLEY... ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CENTRAL/ERN
NOAM TROUGH... WILL SHIFT INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TOWARD
EVENING... THEN CROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. WHILE PW VALUES WILL BUMP
UP TO NEAR 1.5" AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES... BOTH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE PROJECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF JUST 20-25 KTS WILL ALSO BE BORDERLINE...
BUT GIVEN THE INVERTED-V PRESENTATION OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
RESULTING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DOWNSLOPE DRYING AND SLIGHTLY
LOWER DEW POINTS... A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD STILL
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA ONLY FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS... THEN SPREADING ESE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTH AND LOWER COVERAGE
NORTH WITHIN THE MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY. OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WON`T BE VIGOROUS BUT WILL EXTEND THROUGH A DECENT DEPTH... WITH
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JETLET OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COAST... MID LEVEL DPVA... AND LOWER LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE... SO EXPECT COVERAGE TO PEAK AT 30-40%. THE NOTABLY
COOLER AIR SHOULD TAKE AWHILE TO POUR INTO CENTRAL NC... SO EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM 62 NORTH TO 67 SOUTH. -GIH

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 PM TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CWA BY
WED MORNING... WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO CENTRAL NC FROM
THE NORTH. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN PROLONGED THICK LOW CLOUDS LASTING THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MODELS RETAIN AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP OVER CENTRAL
NC WED... ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE DEEPER AND MORE PROFOUND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. THE 850 MB TROUGH... CURRENTLY LAGGING
THE SURFACE FRONT AND NOW ENTERING THE OH VALLEY... WILL SLOWLY
TRACK TO THE SE THROUGH NC LATE WED... AND IT IS AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WHERE THE MOIST UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PATCHY
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE BACK IN THE MORE STABLE POOL. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA WED
AFTERNOON WITH A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THAN PLACES FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST... AND GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH LAGGING DROP IN THICKNESSES (WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER) AND
INCOMING MID LEVEL DRY AIR... THIS THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS
REASONABLE. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA BUT A BIT
HIGHER IN THE SOUTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS IS VERY LOW CONSIDERING
THE DEPENDENCE ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WE`LL SEE. WILL STAY ON THE LOW
END OF STATISTICAL GUIDANCE... WITH HIGHS FROM 72 NW TO 80 SE. LOWS
57-63 WITH A GENERAL LOWERING TREND OF POPS AND CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE
OVERNIGHT AS THE 850 MB TROUGH DROPS SE THROUGH THE AREA. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY BOTH
THE NAM AND THE GFS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY.
LIFT ON THE GFS IS WEAK WITH LITTLE OR NO JET SUPPORT...WHILE THE
NAM SHOWS JUST A LITTLE GREATER LIFT PARTICULARLY THROUGH 18Z MAINLY
OVER EASTERN PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONALLY... THE
GFS FORECASTS AN 850MB THETA-E TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY UNDER LIMITED MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MOSTLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES...OR BASICALLY
NORMAL AT MOST. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP CONVECTION
WHILE THE NAM...WITH GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HAS WEAK
INSTABILITY THURSDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS ALREADY IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1 FOR THURSDAY AND WILL RETAIN THIS FOR
NOW...ANTICIPATING THAT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER COULD END UP BEING
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE FAR EAST PART OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN BETTER INSTABILITY
AND BETTER FORECAST 850MB LIFT. IF NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CORRECT...
MORNING CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO ERODE AND AS SUCH TEMPERATURES ARE
AGAIN A CHALLENGE...BUT FOR THIS FORECAST WILL OPT FOR A BLEND OF
THE MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

OVERNIGHT THURSDAY BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS
MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SUGGEST SOME MOISTENING OF THE AIR
MASS NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL...SUCH THAT AREAS OF SC MAY RESULT IN A
PARTLY TO AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE...MOSTLY
CLOSER TO THE MAV...FOR LOWS 56 TO 62. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND MLCAPE AROUND 1KM DOES NOT REGISTER...WITH
LIFTED INDICES AT OR ABOVE ZERO VIRTUALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA AND CAPPED BUFR SOUNDINGS. CONCERN AGAIN IS THE DEGREE OF
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...GREATER ON THE NAM AND LESS ON THE
GFS. SUITE OF MULTIPLE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE
VARIABLE...RANGING FROM LOWER TO MID 70S TO AT OR JUST ABOVE 80.
1000 TO 850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST VALUES ABOUT TWO OR THREE DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY THAN ON THURSDAY...AND CONSIDERING THE HIGH
BUILDING IN AND EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ADVECTING
IN FROM THE EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE GFS FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN
850MB MOISTURE FROM THAT DIRECTION...WILL SHOW HIGHS NEAR OR A
CATEGORY BELOW THOSE OF THURSDAY...MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BROAD TROUGHINESS IS
EXPECTED ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW FAR WEST WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL GET LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A STEADY TREND WEST OVER MOST OF
THE LAST FOUR RUNS FROM 16/00Z PRIOR...AND MORE MOISTURE OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE OFFSHORE
AND DRIER OVER LAND. A LOT OF THE DETAILS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OF A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE WEEKEND WHICH THEN
INTENSIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 16/12Z
GFS HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY EAST AND DRIER. FOR THIS FORECAST...THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE EVIDENCE SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY
AS SUPPORTED BY THE DRIER GFS. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY DRY...THEN
FORECAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF MOSTLY AGREE ON DIMINISHING QPF AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE
STATE MONDAY...WITH LIMITED GULF INFLOW TOWARD THE FRONT. GENERALLY
LIGHT POST-FRONTAL QPF MAY BE THE PRIMARY RESULT WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NOW TUESDAY ANTICIPATING THAT THE FRONTAL
PROGRESS SOUTH SHOULD SLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERALL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...POSSIBLY A SMATTERING OF
LOWER 80S MOST PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY SOUTH OF U.S. 64 BASED ON THE
CURRENT TIMING OF THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY MID 50S
TO AROUND 60...EXCEPT MAINLY LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM TUESDAY...

EARLIER SUB-VFR CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AREAWIDE. THESE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS EVENING... BUT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS (AND POTENTIALLY SLIPPING
TO IFR AT TIMES) GRADUALLY STARTING AFTER 05Z TONIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH ERN NC... WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER CENTRAL NC. A COLD FRONT LOCATED NW OF NC WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE SE THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE TONIGHT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED AT INT/GSO SOON AFTER 05Z... AT RDU/RWI
SOON AFTER 07Z... AND AT FAY SOON AFTER 10Z TONIGHT. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO NW THEN NE... AND REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 7-
10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE WED AT ALL SITES. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE... WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FAY WHICH HAS A LOWER CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS... THE REST OF CENTRAL NC TAFS WILL SEE MVFR CLOUDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT... SUCH THAT BY SUNRISE... INT/GSO/RDU/RWI SHOULD
ALL HAVE CIGS AROUND 1000-1500 FT AGL... POSSIBLY FALLING LOWER WED
MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH WED NIGHT... LIFTING AND MIXING OUT TO VFR
DURING THU MORNING. PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WED
EVENING/NIGHT. AFTER MIDDAY THU... EXPECT QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE YET CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CENTRAL NC
HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND... BRINGING GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...DJF
AVIATION...HARTFIELD


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