Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KRAH 200014
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
714 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure over the region will keep a warm front over the
SE Coastal Plain tonight. Finally, the front will surge north of the
area Tuesday, bringing much warmer temperatures for the rest of the
week. Record warm weather is anticipated Wednesday into Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Monday...

...Areas of dense fog likely overnight...

In situ cold air damming air mass over the bulk of the Piedmont and
northern coastal plain early this evening. 22Z meso-analysis depicts
a coastal front/pseudo warm front over our far southeast counties.
this sfc feature expected to waver through late this evening then
lift lowly northwestward overnight. The warmer air associated with
this boundary flowing over the relatively cool air at the surface
will cause fog and/or low clouds to develop with the potential for
dense fog, especially in vicinity of highway 64 and along the I-
40/85 corridor. if the fog appears it will become thick, a dense fog
advisory will be necessary.

Temperatures will hold steady this evening then slowly rise
overnight, especially along and east of highway 1. Locations along
and east of I-95 between Fayetteville and Wilson will likely be at
or slightly warmer than 60 degrees by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 PM Monday...

...Areas of dense fog early...

The fog will likely be dense and extensive through mid-morning
Tuesday. Finally, the WAA aloft will be allowed to gradually mix
down and scour out the stratus/fog during the late morning and
afternoon. Also aiding the process will be the increasing heights
aloft with the expanding upper ridge. This will lead to sinking and
mixing down of drier air from aloft. Highs should be tempered with
readings slow to warm in the Piedmont, but earlier clearing in the
south will aid warming there. Highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s
expected, with the cooler damp NAM guidance with the slower clearing
preferred guidance in the Piedmont Damming Region Tuesday.

Low stratus again should be a problem in the Piedmont Tuesday night.
Unseasonably moist PW`s expand northward over the region with dew
points expected to be in the 50s and lower 60s (SE). If the winds
become calm again, then fog may again become an issue or hazard.
Lows generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s (see record high minimums
listed below).
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 213 PM Monday...

Unseasonable, perhaps record warmth will be the main weather story
Wednesday and Thursday, thanks to a 595 ridge off the southeast
coast and warm southerly flow on the western side of that ridge.
Highs will range from the lower-mid 70s NW to lower 80s SE both
days, along with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The next cold front (that`s currently extending from the Great Lakes
region southwest to the south central Plains) will slowly drop south
into and across NC Thursday evening through Thursday night. It`s
possible that some light rain may begin north of the I-85 corridor
as early as late afternoon Thursday (which would hold temps there a
bit lower than currently forecast), but it appears that the best
chance for rain assoc with the fropa and subsequent CAD behind it,
will be Thursday evening into Friday morning.

After a cloudy damp start to Friday with the CAD in place, the
boundary will attempt to lift back north by late-day with southerly
flow and warming returning in it`s wake. Temps Friday will be
dependent on the timing of the CAD erosion and clouds breaking up
and the southerly flow returning.  However, right now it looks like
locations near the SC border will have the best chance of seeing
temps returning to lower 70s, while warming farther north will be
delayed, holding in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds with our area between
the sfc high centered to our east and the next cold front moving
across the OH and MS valleys.  Warm southerly flow between the two
and sunshine will help temps climb into the 70s.  Then on Sunday the
front is expected to cross the region, bringing a chance for showers
and possibly a thunderstorm to our area, and subsequent cooling
trend in the wake of the front for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 714 PM Monday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Widespread dense fog and associated LIFR
conditions are expected to develop across the area this evening
between 00 to 06z as warmer air just above the sfc will lift atop
the shall cool air at the surface. These conditions will only slowly
improve Tuesday, improving to IFR to MVFR CIGS at nearly all sites
by 18z to 21z.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday: Lingering low-level
moisture/stratus Tuesday afternoon/evening could lower to IFR and
LIFR again Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are
expected to return on Wednesday and should remain predominately VFR
through Friday, aside for IFR to LIFR conditions with late night to
early morning fog/stratus.




&&

.CLIMATE...

RDU Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       75    1939        62     1939
02/21       76    2011        55     1939
02/22       75    1897        60     1897
02/23       79    1980        57     1962
02/24       81    1982        58     1985

GSO Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
------------------------------------------
02/20       74    1922        56     1939
02/21       74    2011        50     1954
02/22       74    1925        57     1980
02/23       74    2017        52     1922
02/24       79    1982        55     1985

FAY Records:

Date     |  High  Year  |  High Min  Year
-------------------------------------------
02/20       82    2014        60     1939
02/21       80    1991        61     1953
02/22       77    2003        56     1989
02/23       80    1922        55     1922
02/24       83    1930        60     1975
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...np
AVIATION...CBL
CLIMATE...RAH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.