Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 260204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1003 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

A cold front will settle over the eastern Carolinas tonight. A
second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, followed by high
pressure that will persist over the region through the rest of the


As of 1000 PM EDT Sunday...

The radar remains mostly clear at this hour except for some what
appears to be virga in a few sporadic patches. Otherwise
precipitation remains south of the forecast area and confined to the
coast in the vicinity of the surface front. With central NC behind
that front temperatures have fallen into the upper 60s already
across the northwest but with upper 70s to near 80 degrees still
lingering across the south. Dewpoints are generally in the mid to
upper 60s across the area. With drying at the surface, fog or low
stratus is not expected tonight although some high level clouds
could remain across the area which could keep our temperatures from
bottoming out. Therefore have lows in the lower 60s and perhaps a
few upper 50s back across the northwest and upper 60s in the


As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Wly flow aloft will induce a weak lee-side sfc trough to develop
Monday across the Piedmont. While this feature would normally aid to
focus convective development this time of year, atmosphere Monday
afternoon appears to be too dry and stable to support anything more
than fair weather cumulus. Thus, will maintain a dry forecast.
Temperatures will average a few degrees below normal for this time
of year, ranging from the lower-middle 80s.

The approach of a mid level s/w and attendant sfc front Monday night
will keep the low level atmosphere stirred-up enough to prohibit
full cooling potential. In addition, will likely see an increase in
mid/high level cloudiness after midnight across the Piedmont. Min
temps 60-65


As of 145 PM Sunday...

A cooler airmass settles over the region Tuesday into Wednesday as
the trough axis traverses the area.  Latest model guidance continues
to suggest that a broken line of showers and tstms may move across
central NC Tuesday afternoon as the trough axis approaches and moves
through. Wednesday will be rain free and little if any clouds.

High pressure at the surface will move east of the region Thursday
and Friday.  Rain chances will be very low but temperatures and dew
points will trend upward as a south to southwesterly low level flow
resumes across the Carolinas.

Southerly flow will further increase over the weekend in response to
a short wave moving across the Great Lakes region and a surface
front approaching the Appalachians.  Rain chances will increase
Saturday and Sunday as low level moisture and synoptic scale forcing


.AVIATION /00Z Monday through Friday/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions will hold through the next 24 hours over central NC.
Mid and high clouds will streak across central and eastern NC this
evening, as a strong upper jet shifts over the Northeast and Mid
Atlantic states. This clouds will exit the area tonight, leaving
mostly clear skies. No restrictions to vsbys tonight through Mon as
drier air moves in. Winds will be light.

Looking beyond 00z Tue (Mon evening), high confidence in VFR
conditions dominating through the work week. There is a small chance
of a showers and storms with passage of a secondary cold front and
upper level trough late Tue, but any sub-VFR conditions would be
brief. High pressure will dominate the rest of the work week. -GIH





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