Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 290543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
143 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT...
THEN HEAD BACK NORTH AGAIN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A STRONGER
UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
CLOSE OUT THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1100 PM EDT THURSDAY...

BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY HUNG UP OVER SOUTHSIDE VA AND NW NC...ALONG
A UKF-MWK-MTV-LYH-FVX LINE. DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTH OF THE FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT...MAY DRIFT TO ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER OR JUST INTO
NORTHERN NC.  THERE HAS BEEN AN ONGOING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR
BUCKINGHAM AND FARMVILLE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RADAR
ESTIMATING UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FALLING OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY DURING THE EVENING. THE HRRR MODEL
SHOWS A GRADUAL DRIFT OF THIS PRECIP TOWARD I-95 CORRIDOR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRA VCNTY OF THE
FRONT FROM CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

ASIDE FOR THE SHOWER THREAT ALONG THE FRONT...NOT MUCH GOING ON
WEATHERWISE. THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA...FROM THE NC MTNS INTO THE
NRV OF VA...AND FROM THE THE GREENBRIER VALLEY OF WV EAST ALONG
THE I-64 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL VA WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN FOLKS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHERE READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

OVERNIGHT...SOME OF THE MODELS...ESP THE NAM...INDICATE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER PER DEVELOPMENT OF EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
VCNTY OF THE FRONT...THE RESULTANT UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BLUE
RIDGE RESULTING IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME STRATUS IN THE MORNING...BUT PREFER TO
KEEP OVERALL SKY CONDITIONS TONED DOWN FROM THE NAM BUT THINK
AREAS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT COULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY IN
THE MORNING. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LATE
TONIGHT WHERE SKIES SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR...PARTLY CLOUDY AT
WORST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NORTH PER DRIER
AIR WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE 65-70 DEGREE RANG IN THE SOUTH.

FRIDAY...FRONT STARTS WORKING BACK NORTH ACROSS US. MODELS ARE
AGREEMENT THAT LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED OVER US BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE REGION. BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SW VA MTNS TOWARD TN...SO HAVE 30ISH POPS HERE. ANOTHER AREA IS
OVER THE RALEIGH-DURHAM AREA AND EAST...SO MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED
STORMS TOWARD YANCEYVILLE. SE WINDS WILL BE KEEPING TEMPS FROM
GETTING TOO HIGH...PLUS DEALING WITH POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS INTO
MORNING OVER THE EAST. HIGHS WILL MAY WORK OUT TO BE HOMOGENEOUS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S. SE FLOW DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY INCREASE TEMPS OVER THE MTN
EMPIRE BUT STORMS FIRING UP IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD PREVENT IT FROM
TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE OF UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT THURSDAY...

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST AS STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS AGREE THAT A SRN
STREAM UPPER SHORTWAVE WITH ENHANCEMENT IN THE JET WILL STREAK OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES AND ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY. FOR SATURDAY THOUGH...MAINLY LOOKING WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH
SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS PER SSE FLOW. MODELS ARE FAVORING A
BIT OF CONVECTION WITH THE LEE TROUGH IN THE EAST...MAINLY FROM THE
ERN WV PANHANDLE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TIDEWATER. THINK THE AIRMASS
WILL BE UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STORMS BUT
OVERALL UPPER SUPPORT IS LACKING SO ONLY SEEING ISOLATED COVERAGE
OVER THE MTNS AND NORTH OF A ROANOKE TO DANVILLE LINE. MORE SUN
SATURDAY WILL BRING TEMPS TOWARD 90 OUT EAST WITH MID 80S WEST.

SAT NIGHT...MAIN AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL RUN FROM MS-KY...WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AFTER FRIDAY
EVENING STORMS WANE. WITH THE UPPER SUPPORT TRACKING CLOSER WILL
HAVE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE MTNS LATE.

SUNDAY LOOKS ACTIVE AS THE SHORTWAVE SHIFTS ACROSS KY INTO NRN
WV...WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE AND LIFT. WILL SEE HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY
POPS. LOOKS LIKE CLOUD COVER COULD ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO KEEP
INSTABILITY LOWER...BUT ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT/SHEAR IN THE WEST WHERE
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S MTNS TO UPPER 80S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A MEAN UPPER
RIDGE THAT WILL INITIALLY RESIDE ALONG AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...WHICH GRADUALLY RETROGRESSES AND EXPANDS WESTWARD INTO THE
GULF COAST STATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT ANY
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AWAY FROM THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...WITH
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.

HOWEVER...TAP OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RIDING AROUND PERIPHERY OF
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER/NEAR THE BLACKSBURG
FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING
THREAT FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CONSIDERING RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED
OVER THE AREA.

GRADUAL RETROGRESSION OF UPPER RIDGE INTO NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW WINDS ALOFT
TO VEER SUCH THAT INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP GRADUALLY
WANES...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MORE AGGRESSIVE SOUTHWARD INTRUSION
OF NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN
ADVANCE OF AN ACCOMPANYING DECAYING COOL FRONT INTO THE MID
APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION IN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.

PUSH OF POST-FRONTAL SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
REDUCE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64
BY THURSDAY...BUT WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
REDEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS CLOSER
TO DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PROXIMITY TO HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S SHOULD
ENSURE THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...MAINLY
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY DAY WITH UPPER
80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...WITH MAINLY 60S AT NIGHT. INTRUSION OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER POST-FRONTAL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM AROUND NORFOLK TO JUST SOUTH OF
KDAN TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. EAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WERE
EXPECTED TO BRING A STRATUS LAYER IN FROM THE COAST. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME THAT KLYH OR KDAN WILL DROP TO MVFR
CEILINGS OR LOWER BEFORE 12Z/8AM.

THE SKY WAS CLEAR AT KLWB AND WITH A SMALL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
DEPRESSION...EXPECTING FOG WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
OF AT LEAST IFR VISIBILITY AT THIS AIRPORT AFTER 09Z/5AM.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO
MENTION OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEEDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
AGAIN ON SATURDAY...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SHOULD ONE OF THESE STORMS DEVELOP NEAR A TAF LOCATION IT
COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH AND MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT...THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SHOWER COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD AS COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 100 PM EDT THURSDAY ...

THE VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN...DANVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT...REMAINS
OUT OF SERVICE. A PART HAS BEEN ORDERED. REPAIRS WILL BE DONE THIS FRIDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...AMS/CF
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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