Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 221030
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL HAVE LESS INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. THE BUILDING HIGH WILL SHRINK THE MARINE LAYER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND BRING HOTTER DAYS...ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY
MOIST AS WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE WILL
BRING AN INCREASED THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS. ALONG THE COAST...IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH AREAS
OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW AND IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME
MAKING IT VERY FAR INLAND IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER SINCE THE INVERSION IS SQUASHED TOWARDS THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS NEAR THE COAST...BETWEEN 800-1500 FEET ATTM.
IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE HUGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BE THE
MOST NOTED INFLUENCE ON SOCAL WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE CONTINUED SHALLOW COASTAL STRIP MARINE
LAYER AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
INLAND. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS NOTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS NOTED BY OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
WAVE ORIGINATING THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA...WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK AND THE LATEST MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE PEGS THIS FEATURE TO REACH SOCAL ON SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE WAVE MAKES IT TO SOCAL IT WILL BE RIDING
ALONG THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE HIGH
PRES RIDGE. THIS FEATURE COULD PICK UP JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INLAND...THEREFORE WE CONTINUE TO MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. AS WITH PREVIOUS
LOW PROBABILITY THUNDERSTORM EVENTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF A MOISTURE PLUME
BELOW ABOUT 500 MB.

OTHERWISE...CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SHALLOW
COASTAL STRIP MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
220945Z...COAST/VALLEYS...STRATUS WITH BASES 1200-1500 FT MSL AND
TOPS TO 2000 FT MSL WILL SPREAD NORTH ALONG THE COAST AND PUSH
INLAND 15-20 MILES THROUGH SUNRISE. STRATUS CLEARING 15-17Z. PATCHY
STRATUS WITH BASES 800-1200 FT MSL REDEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 23/03Z AND SPREADING 10-15 SM INLAND TONIGHT.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...A FEW CLOUDS AOA FL150 AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY
THROUGH WED MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
250 AM...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY. SUSTAINED
WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 5 AM THURSDAY.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
     PDT THURSDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN
     CLEMENTE ISLAND.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...SS






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