Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 230433
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING A WARMING TREND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE MORE SHALLOW...SO
THAT NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AUTUMN BEGAN AT 729 PM
PDT THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

AREAS OF STRATUS WERE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SKIES
WERE CLEAR OVER LAND. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD ALONG A
WEST-EAST AXIS...THE MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY...AND
ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM SAN DIEGO SHOWED THE INVERSION BASE AROUND 900
FT MSL. STRATUS WILL THEREFORE BE RESTRICTED TO COASTAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE 2-4 DEG F TUESDAY OVER THE REGION DUE TO
THE WARMER PROFILE ALOFT...WITH BEST WARMING WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO FEWER LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING TO BURN OFF.

THE UPPER HIGH WHICH IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE US-MEXICO BORDER
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH WED AND COVER MOST OF THE WESTERN US
EXCEPT FOR THE PAC NW WHICH WILL HAVE A DEEP LOW OFF THE COAST. WED
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR SO-CAL BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
TOWARDS THE PLAINS AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. MODELS DO HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THEY GENERALLY KEEP THE PRECIP EAST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
IF THE TROUGH DEEPENS THE MARINE LAYER ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS FRI OR SAT NIGHT.
PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY BELOW 15 PERCENT IN ALL GRIDS. IT
WILL BE COOLER MAINLY FRI/SAT/SUN...THOUGH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS AT/ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD DESPITE DAYTIME TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
230300Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER BACK
INTO AREAS WITHIN 10-20 MILES OF THE COAST THROUGH 11Z...WITH CLOUDS
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. OVERNIGHT...CLOUD BASES WILL BE
AROUND 800-1200 FT MSL...WITH TOPS OF 1200 TO 1600 FT MSL. VIS
RESTRICTIONS OF 3 SM OR LESS WILL OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS AND TERRAIN
INTERSECT. CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO THE COAST SHOULD OCCUR
BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z. AFTER 19Z...SKC WILL PREVAIL INLAND...WITH A
FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SKC WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
800 PM...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS THEREAFTER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS OF 10-18
KTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAXWELL
AVIATION/MARINE...BA






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