Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 061944
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WE REMAIN POISED TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL TRAILING
SHORTWAVES ACT TO CARVE OUT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S...WITH DOMINANT RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES WEST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THE VERY STRONG UPPER FORCING
OVERSPREADING THE REGION...SHOWER ACTIVITY GOT OFF TO AN EARLIER
START THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...AND MOVED ASHORE LATE THIS MORNING...QUICKLY MOISTENING A
RATHER DRY COLUMN...AND PRECIPITATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL OCCUR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN A RAPID TRANSLATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO OUR
EAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
IN...GENERATING WINDY CONDITIONS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...RAIN
WILL END QUICKLY TONIGHT...REPLACED WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE 50S SUNDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR FILLING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DESCEND THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH LOWS
EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON IFR/LIFR CIGS...THESE HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE. IT DOES APPEAR AS COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN AT
THE SURFACE...THAT SOME LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR IN THE 10Z TO
12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTIONARY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST.
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BAY AND PROTECTED WATERS WILL
ALSO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW HUMIDITIES WITH THE DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...AND ERC VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  30   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 /  60  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 /  60  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  40  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  40   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING


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