Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
FXUS62 KTBW 260824
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
424 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017
08Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows a progressive
mid/upper level pattern over the CONUS. Well define trough
ejecting out of the central states has become negatively
tilted with the trough axis now extending from the middle MS
valley to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This energy is quickly
shearing out early this morning as it moves eastward toward
the region. Line of strong storms initially associated with
this energy has almost completely collapsed and will not
survive to impact our region with any rainfall.
A second potent shortwave ejecting out of the southwestern
states this morning will follow closely behind the lead
trough and also pass harmlessly to our north later Monday
into Monday night.
At the surface...A ridge of high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic extends southwest over the FL peninsula and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This ridge will remain
generally unchanged through the next several days.
.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
The forecast through Monday will be generally benign and
warm. For today...strong terrestrial heating and generally
weak low level flow will allow a well-defined sea-breeze to
develop this afternoon.
Yes...its still March, and despite only shallow available
moisture and weak NVA behind the passing shortwave, there
is good agreement among the explicit convection models that
strong low level convergence along the sea-breeze will be
just strong enough to support a few shallow short-lived
showers late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Most locations will not see any rainfall today...but since
it can not be ruled out...have included isolated showers in
the forecast in a strip along the I-75 corridor. Best
potential to see a shower appears to be in the Punta Gorda
to Fort Myers area where a 30% rainfall probability as been
A drier column on Monday will likely prevent any shower
activity on Monday...with the exception of possibly inland
Levy county...where some weak synoptic support for lift and
better moisture will be present in closer proximity to the
passage of the second shortwave mentioned in the synopsis
Temperatures the next several days will easily reach the 80s
away from the beaches. At the beaches...temperatures may
briefly approach 80 early in the afternoon before the
developing onshore flow cools things down with advection off
the relatively cooler shelf waters.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through next Saturday)...
The weather for much of the extended will be void of any
significant weather concerns. Mid/upper level ridging will
be in place across the area through Thursday keeping us warm
and dry across the peninsula. Temps will remain warm and
above normal reaching into the 80s area wide on Tuesday with
some middle 80s across the interior. Temps will continue to
warm into Wednesday with upper 80s likely across interior
zones. Certainly a warm end for the last week of March. As
we get into Thursday, a shortwave trough across the Arklatex
will pivot into the Tennessee Valley by Friday bringing the
potential for increased rain chances across our area. The
GFS remains most aggressive with rainfall chances compared
to the ECMWF. This remains six days out so plenty of time to
see how it will play out over time. For now, the current
forecast remains close to the previous one until greater
forecast certainty exists.
.AVIATION (26/06Z through 27/06Z)...
No significant aviation concerns anticipated through the
forecast period. General VFR conditions will prevail through
the remainder of the morning...with a period of BKN-OVC Cigs
between 5-6KFT expected at KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. E-SE morning
winds will shift into typical sea-breeze configurations for
coastal TAFS during the mid-afternoon/early evening hours.
Isolated shower possible along the sea-breeze after 19Z for
KPGD/KRSW/KFMY, and have added a VCSH with this forecast
High pressure remains in control of the eastern Gulf of Mexico
through the next several days. Winds and seas remain light. East to
southeast winds overnight and morning will shift onshore each
afternoon with the development of daily sea-breezes.
Surface high pressure will remain in control of the region through
the next several days. Winds will shift onshore near the coast
each afternoon with sea-breeze development. A few isolated showers
are possible along this sea-breeze this afternoon and early evening...
although most locations will remain dry. No significant fire
weather concerns through Monday with relative humidity staying
above critical levels and winds staying light.
Fog Potential...Patches fog is expected inland late Sunday night,
but widespread fog or dense fog is not expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 81 65 80 64 / 10 10 0 0
FMY 81 62 82 62 / 30 20 0 0
GIF 82 61 83 61 / 20 20 0 0
SRQ 76 64 77 61 / 0 10 0 0
BKV 81 59 81 56 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 80 65 81 66 / 0 10 0 0
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...Mroczka
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...McKaughan