Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 282022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
322 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION TO A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET HAS
LED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVERING ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NORTHWARD. RIGHT ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR...THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE JET
INTERACTION HELPED INTENSIFY THE SHOWERS...WITH RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN...AND EVEN ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH ALLOWING ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. OVERCAST TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WITH WET GROUND. THE CLOUD DECK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP SUNDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...WITH LESS RAIN OVERALL AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SOLAR
HEATING...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK SHOWING DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING IN
FROM SOUTHERN GOMEX. H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO OVER 586 DAM BY
TUESDAY WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...WITH A GENERAL TEMPERATURE TREND
RUNNING 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS. WITH A FAIRLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...CANNOT RULE AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...HOWEVER THE DEEP RIDGING MIGHT BE TOO MUCH FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OVERCOME. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS FRONT STALLING OVER THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR/VFR LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AFTER SUNSET...CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
DROP AGAIN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AGAIN
SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PICK UP OVERNIGHT...REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
OFFSHORE AND EVEN APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS STAYING LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2
FEET. AN APPROACHING FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH POOR DISPERSION INDICES.
ADDITIONALLY PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE EVEN
MORE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  63  79  64  80 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  66  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
GIF  65  81  64  81 /  30  30  20  20
SRQ  64  79  63  79 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  61  79  58  81 /  30  20  20  20
SPG  65  76  65  77 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...20/BARRON
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON




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