Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 202359 AAA
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
659 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.UPDATE...
A glance at the 00Z TBW RAOB flight still in progress shows
a subsidence inversion still present just above 850 mb this
evening but this should erode away fairly quickly. Low-level
moisture increased significantly today beginning in the
late-morning and the entire atmospheric column will moisten
quite a bit over the next 24 hours. Mid/upper level
troughing is beginning to amplify across the Gulf while a
broad area of increasing forced ascent will begin to
overspread our area late tonight and especially into the
day Tuesday. Partly cloudy skies currently over the region
will give way to a cloudy sky by daybreak tomorrow. Models
show the potential for a few showers to develop across
southern zones overnight but expecting the majority of
activity to occur after daybreak Tuesday. For now will
maintain the 20 PoP for areas south of Tampa Bay as any
shower activity should be fairly limited.

As far as temps are concerned, overnight lows will be some
5-15 degrees warmer, depending on location, than what we saw
this morning. Expecting mid 50s to mid 60s across the
region tonight. Current forecast is on track and no major
changes needed for the evening update. Be sure to have an
umbrella handy for your day Tuesday as rain chances are
fairly decent across the region, something we haven`t seen
in some time.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail into tonight, but moisture will
quickly return overnight with some MVFR ceilings possible
by daybreak Tuesday. A few showers could develop overnight
over southwest Florida, then more scattered to numerous
showers and possibly a few thunderstorm are expected during
Tuesday late morning into the afternoon. Easterly winds
expected overnight but will veer and become more southeast
to south during Tuesday morning and eventually southwest to
west by Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy easterly winds will continue tonight with speeds at
exercise caution criteria again overnight, especially across
the offshore waters. An area of low pressure is expected to
develop over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with this low
tracking east northeast across the peninsula during
Wednesday through Friday. Although winds and seas are not
expected to significantly increase with this low rain
chances will with scattered to numerous showers and isolated
storms expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  77  65  78 /  10  70  20  30
FMY  66  82  65  81 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  62  78  63  79 /  10  70  20  40
SRQ  64  78  64  77 /  20  50  20  20
BKV  59  77  60  78 /  10  70  20  30
SPG  64  77  65  78 /  10  60  20  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...11/McKaughan
DECISION SUPPORT...14/Mroczka



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