Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 282352
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
752 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016


.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALL TAFS SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
QUASI REX BLOCK WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
U/L LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH WILL ENHANCE U/L RIDGING FROM THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO CENTRAL CANADA. DOWNSTREAM...AN U/L RIDGE WILL
HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL
SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...WITH MID 80S NEAR THE COAST.
POOLED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW PCPW
CONTINUE IN THE 1.3 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING...AND CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW
IN PLACE WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM POP UP AS THE SEA BREEZES
MOVE INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. THEN DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...EXCEPT
CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THIS TIME WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
SOME COOLER DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS...COULD IMPACT LAL HOWEVER MAJORITY OF
ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF ALL TERMINALS.

MARINE...
NO HAZARDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  88  72  88 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10
GIF  70  91  71  91 /  20  30  20  20
SRQ  69  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  65  89  65  90 /   0  10  10  20
SPG  73  86  72  88 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...99
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99



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