Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 250907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TROUGHED SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A RIDGE CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA EXTENDED
NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC. SURFACE - A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SPRAWLED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A LOW IN SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...OVER AND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ACROSS SOUTHERN FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AS IT/S TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE ATLANTIC. THE HISPANIOLA UPPER RIDGE
FLATTENS AND ELONGATES WEST...INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE AREA. THE SOUTH FL COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THEN STALLS. THE SURFACE HIGH TAKES A
NORTHEASTERLY COURSE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TO MID-ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS...WITH AREA WINDS VEERING FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE AREA AS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TRACK
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS RAINFALL WILL BE GONE BY
DAYBREAK WITH THE CLOUDS SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE NORTHWEST WIND ARE BECOMING
NORTHERLY AND DECREASING TODAY THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH WAVE
ENERGY REACHING AREA BEACHES TO CREATE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
WILL ISSUE A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR TODAY. BY FRI WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY FLOW BECOMING EASTERLY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY FORM ACROSS INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TODAY GRADUALLY WARM
TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS EASTWARD. SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL FORECAST TO TRAVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...WITH
JUST SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL SHOW SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER FAR
NORTHERN ZONES LATER MONDAY EXPANDING SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WILL FALL BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/06Z-26/06Z. CURRENTLY VFR BUT EXPECT SOME LOW CIGS IN THE MVFR
RANGE AT TIMES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...WITH A FEW
-SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTH. AFTER SUNRISE BKN VFR CIGS SLOWLY
CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS VEER FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WITH MODEST SPEEDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT IS IN FAR SOUTHEAST FL EARLY THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN GULF BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WINDS HAVE ALL
SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY AND HAVE STARTED...ALONG WITH THE SEAS...TO
DIMINISH. AS THE SEAS DECAY WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 4 AM AND SWITCH TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS BY NORTH OF THE WATERS WINDS VEER WITH
GENERALLY BENIGN SPEEDS THROUGH MON. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH DURING TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES SLIGHTLY...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG/ IF ANY/ IS EXPECTED BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS AND ERC VALUES DO NOT REACH
SIGNIFICANT LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  54  74  63 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  74  59  80  65 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  70  53  75  62 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  70  54  76  63 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  67  45  74  58 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  68  57  73  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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