Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 232335
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
635 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.AVIATION (00z TAFs)...
A cold front continues to move south across the region,
allowing winds to become northerly. While VFR conditions
will resume at many area terminals, KPGD south to KFMY/KRSW
will continue to see periods of IFR ceilings as the front
slows down. This will likely continue through mid morning
Wednesday before gradual improvement.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 231 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight-Wednesday)...
A closed mid/upper-level low continues to move east-northeastward
through the Great Lakes region this afternoon, with a steady southern
stream flow across the state bringing us some mid and high clouds. At
the surface, the cold front appears to be just entering our forecast
area, noted by a noticeable wind shift and drop in dew points at
locations across the panhandle. Radar imagery is showing a few
showers stretching from Charlotte/Lee Counties northeastward through
Polk/Highlands. This chance for showers will continue through the
afternoon, gradually coming to an end this evening. Looking at the
latest satellite imagery, web cams, and observations from around the
area shows some patchy sea fog over the Gulf waters from around
Manatee southward and some denser sea fog over Tampa Bay. Expect a
few more hours of this patchy fog (both over land and water) and then
this threat also diminishes north to south late this afternoon or
this evening.

The cold front will move through the forecast area by around midnight
or so, with winds shifting to the north as high pressure filters in
from the northwest. A relatively cooler and drier air mass will move
into the region, but this air mass is relatively shallow. A southwest
to west flow just above the surface will likely result in at least
some continued cloud cover, especially south of Tampa Bay. The
southern stream flow over the region will also keep some mid and high
cloudiness around, so would not expect to see a perfectly sunny day
for anyone. Temperatures in the afternoon will warm up into the
lower 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night-Tuesday)...
Mid/upper level troughing will be over the eastern U.S. Wednesday
night then moves out into the Atlantic Ocean with some weak ridging
building over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida late in the week. The
next trough then develops over the eastern states over the weekend
into early next week. Seasonably cool dry air will be across the
region through Thursday night with temperatures a few degrees below
normal. The breezy northerly winds Wednesday night will shift to
northeast Thursday and then east on Friday as surface high pressure
moves across the southern U.S. and eventually out into the western
Atlantic during Friday. Dry weather under partly to mostly cloudy
skies is expected during this timeframe. Over the weekend and into
early next week the next storm system will take shape over the Deep
South and Gulf of Mexico and move east, but the exact timing and
strength vary between the models. Still looks like clouds will
increase with rain chances for Saturday night into Monday with
temperatures remaining seasonable and no big extremes either cold or
warm expected.

AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR conditions as lower cigs will continue to affect area
terminals through much of the rest of the forecast period. KSRQ, in
particular, is experiencing low cigs and vsbys in sea fog that has
made it onshore. Conditions will begin to improve around 00Z for KTPA
and KPIE, then later for KSRQ and still later for the southern
sites. These will likely hold onto at least MVFR conditions through
the morning hours. A few showers will be possible this afternoon,
particularly at KPGD/KFMY/KRSW.

MARINE...
A cold front will move through the region today and tonight, with
south to southwest winds turning more northward tonight. Periods of
exercise caution winds from the north and northeast can be expected
through much of the week behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values could briefly approach critical levels
tomorrow afternoon for areas around I-4 northward and again on
Thursday afternoon, but then no concerns. No significant areas of fog
or reduced visibility are expected during the next several days once
the cold front moves through the area.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  51  67  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  60  73  53  72 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  52  70  47  67 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  54  66  49  68 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  46  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  52  66  50  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

PRIOR AFD...
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/Carlisle
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close


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