Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 030045
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
AN UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS FL TONIGHT...REACHING FROM THE
GULF TO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE GULF AS A TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST...ACROSS SOUTHERN GA
AND NORTHERN FL. LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS PUSHED EAST FOR
THE MOST...WITH ONLY A FEW STORMS IN EAST POLK AND EAST LEE
COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE TO BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND WILL
UPDATE THE FORECAST BY 10 PM TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE THE
FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
03/00Z-04/00Z. LIMITED LATE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA HAVE SHIFTED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS ON WESTERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW. THE FLOW
WEAKENS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT THEN INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND
BECOMES W-SW AND WEST WED. THIS FLOW WILL AGAIN KEEP THE BEST
ODDS OF SHRA/TSRA INLAND AND WILL ONLY HAVE BRIEF VCNTY REMARKS AT
LAL AND PGD/FMY/RSW WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS DOMINATED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
THIS HIGH WILL BE REINFORCED FROM THE NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND
WITH PREVAILING WINDS VEERING BUT STAYING LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS ARE AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THESE RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
THOSE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  40
FMY  77  92  77  92 /  10  20  10  40
GIF  76  93  77  91 /  10  30  30  60
SRQ  77  89  79  90 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  74  91  74  91 /  10  20  20  40
SPG  79  90  80  90 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
UPPER AIR/RIVERS...19/GUSACK
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS


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