Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 240530
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1230 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to hold through early Wednesday
morning. Breezy northwest winds will gradually subside today
under mostly clear skies. Patchy fog will be possible late
tonight/Wednesday morning, but is not expected to develop
until after 06z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 755 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017/

UPDATE...
01z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show the deep/sharp
trough the moved through the southeastern states Sunday and
Sunday night pivoting up the eastern seaboard...and driving
a strong nor`easter low pressure system across the mid-
atlantic/Northeastern states overnight. In the wake of this
system...heights are quickly rising over the Florida
peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico as we transition
quickly to upper level ridging that will control our weather
through the middle of the week.

00Z KTBW sounding profile shows the atmosphere over our
heads has dried out considerably during the past 12-18
hours...with a PW value down down to around 0.7". A sharp
subsidence inversion is located around 850mb...with very dry
air/large dewpoint depression through the remainder of the
column. Still seeing some lower level moisture trapped below
this level arriving with the strong NW winds off the Gulf of
Mexico...but this moisture will also be drying out overnight
and Tuesday morning.

At the surface...The pressure gradient is still quite tight
across the region between the aforementioned low along the
eastern seaboard and high pressure over the western Gulf.
However this gradient across the peninsula and eastern Gulf
will be weakening steadily overnight...dropping from about
9mb currently...to roughly 4mb by daybreak. This drop in
gradient and loss of any CAA will really allow winds to
diminish and become less gusty during the next 12 hours.

We had seen some passing showers through the afternoon hours
driven by the CAA over the gulf...coupled with the very
impressive vorticity aloft associated with the passing
trough. Our area is now under a region of strong NVA...and
shallower moisture...which as cut off the shower development
over the eastern Gulf. Our forecast for the remainder of the
overnight and into Tuesday is now a dry one.

With the inclement weather and windy conditions exiting the
forecast...we can settle in for a much quieter day
Tuesday...highlighted by lighter winds...plenty of
sunshine...and seasonable temperatures.

Have a great Monday night everyone!

MARINE... Conditions still quite rough across the eastern
Gulf this evening. The Gale watch has expired...however high
end small craft advisory conditions are still exist. Wind
and waves will gradually be subsiding through the overnight
hours. Residual wave action may however take until later
Tuesday morning to fall below advisory levels. Winds and
wave will continue to subside Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
night as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  56  74  64 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  77  56  77  63 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  73  51  78  60 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  71  54  75  63 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  69  46  77  58 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  71  59  74  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Tampa Bay waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
     River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION...18/Fleming



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