Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 290731
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
331 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today-Tuesday)...
A strong U/L ridge will be centered over the Florida
peninsula today and will shift east of Florida on Tuesday,
but will still hold over the region. A cut-off low over the
northern Great Lakes will rotate slowly north toward
southern Hudson Bay on Tuesday. Southern extent of
associated L/W trough will sink south and will approach
northern Florida late Tuesday.

At the surface, Florida peninsula will be on the western
periphery of a large area of high pressure centered over the
central Atlantic. The ridge axis, which has been south of
the forecast area creating onshore boundary layer flow, will
lift gradually north across the central Florida peninsula
on Tuesday. Boundary layer flow will shift to the
east/southeast with increasing deep layer moisture.

Hot conditions expected across west central and southwest
Florida today under mostly sunny skies as the U/L ridge will
be anchored over the region creating strong large scale
subsidence over the region. Strong subsidence will persist
on Tuesday, however slightly deeper moisture and sea breeze
boundary collision over the interior peninsula will create a
chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Continued hot conditions
across the forecast area, however daytime temperatures will
be a degree or two lower on Tuesday than Monday due to
slight increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Sunday)...
On Tuesday high pressure on the surface and aloft is
centered over the Atlantic with the surface ridge extending
eastward over the Florida peninsula as moisture us pulled
northward under southerly flow and as a weak cold front
approaches the Florida panhandle. By Tuesday evening
interior showers occur primarily over the interior. By
Wednesday afternoon more moisture has returned and scattered
thunderstorms form over the peninsula and are primarily
over the interior. With the surface ridge extending east-
west across the state and weak high pressure aloft his
pattern of afternoon thunderstorms will continue into Sunday
with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours under
mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will remain less than 15 knots with seas less than 4
feet through the period. Main hazard will be an increasing
chance of late afternoon/evening thunderstorms mid to late
week. The stronger storms will be capable of producing
strong gusty winds, locally rough seas, and frequent cloud
to water lightning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected this afternoon.
Minimum relative humidity values will drop near 35 percent
for a few hours over the interior peninsula this afternoon,
however winds and durations are expected to remain below
critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  76  92  76 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  95  74  93  74 /  10   0  30  20
GIF  97  73  95  73 /   0  10  30  30
SRQ  90  74  90  74 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  93  71  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  91  77  90  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/Paxton



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