National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KTBW 080029
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
730 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.UPDATE (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING THE SHARP AND POTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING OVER THE REGION TODAY NOW
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST...AND FOR THE FIRST TIME
TODAY...HEIGHT RISES ARE NOW EXPANDING OVERHEAD. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE QUICKLY EXITING TO THE
EAST OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE ON SATURDAY MORNING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL HAVE COME BENIGN AND ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA. 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWS A VERY
DRY COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER RELATED TO THE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
IN THE MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 40-45+C...AND THE PW IS ALL THE WAY
DOWN TO AROUND 1/2 INCH.

AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT GRADIENT HAS EXISTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY BETWEEN SURFACE REFLECTION CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GUSTY WINDS MADE FOR SOME ROUGH
CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALSO ON AREA LAKES. THIS
GRADIENT IS NOW BEGINNING TO RELAX AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL OF THE PENINSULA. THIS RELAXING GRADIENT AND LOSS OF DIURNAL
MIXING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY SUBSIDE INLAND AND ALLOWED THE
LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM EST. WINDS AND WAVES WILL ALSO
BE SUBSIDING OVER THE MARINE AREA AND WILL LIKELY ALLOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE LATE EVENING COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE HAZARD THAT WAS EXTENDED WAS THE RIP CURRENT
RISK FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTHWARD. RESIDUAL WAVE ACTION WILL TAKE
A BIT LONGER TO SUBSIDE AND LATEST SURF CALCULATION SUPPORT KEEPING
THE MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. THE SURF AND RIP CURRENT RISK WILL DECREASE QUICKLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

A COOL FRIDAY WILL LEAD INTO A COOL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL FALL STEADILY AND EXPECT MANY
LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S BY THE TIME THE SUN RISES. IF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN BREAK APART FAST ENOUGH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE OVERNIGHT...AND FEEL IT WILL WITH THE EXIT OF THE MAIN ENERGY
ALOFT AND LOSS OF CAA...THEN NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS FROM BROOKSVILLE
NORTHWARD COULD VERY LIKELY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
TOWARD SUNRISE. A TOUCH OF FROST IS NOT OF THE QUESTION EITHER IN
THESE SPOTS ON CARS...ROOFS...AND EXPOSED GRASSY SURFACES. HAVE MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT TOWARD HOLDING ONTO MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE
COAST AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 BASED ON LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.

A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTER
THE COOL START. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE REGION WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
QUICKLY RISE IN THE MORNING...REACHING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S NORTH OF I-4...AND MIDDLE 40S FURTHER SOUTH. HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THE TERRESTRIAL HEATING AND WEAK GRADIENT WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION SPORT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS...THIS ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DROP TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER
60S AT AREA BEACHES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD. STAY WARM TONIGHT...AND
HAVE A GREAT SATURDAY!

&&

.AVIATION...
08/00Z-09/00Z: LCL MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTY NW WINDS INTO EARLY EVENING
THEN CLOUDS LIFT TO VFR AND THIN AS WINDS VEER AND DIMINISH OVER
NIGHT. SCT CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS SAT WITH NE WINDS...BECOMING
ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW HEADLINE
THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  45  71  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  48  76  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  44  74  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  71  53  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  51  71  60  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE